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(CNBC)   Yesterday, oil dropped significantly due to an influx of actual data. Obviously, the speculators could not allow that to stand   (cnbc.com) divider line 62
    More: Stupid, Brent Crude, oil exports, Pistons  
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4913 clicks; posted to Business » on 23 Mar 2012 at 2:35 PM (2 years ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2012-03-23 10:35:55 AM
Yes, because a drop in exports from Iran - who we get 0 oil from to begin with - has a direct effect on OUR prices.

/also, in before 'that's not how the market works'
 
2012-03-23 11:29:38 AM

Grand_Moff_Joseph: Yes, because a drop in exports from Iran - who we get 0 oil from to begin with - has a direct effect on OUR prices.

/also, in before 'that's not how the market works'


Actually, that really isn't how the market works.

It isn't based on some antiquated fantasy like "supply and demand," it's based entirely on the whims and fancies of speculators. That's why Iran's oil exports affect America's prices, despite (or perhaps "because") the fact that they don't export even a drop of oil to us.
 
2012-03-23 12:00:05 PM

Grand_Moff_Joseph:

/also, in before 'that's not how the market works'


Looks like you just barely made it!
 
2012-03-23 12:03:21 PM

King Something: Grand_Moff_Joseph: Yes, because a drop in exports from Iran - who we get 0 oil from to begin with - has a direct effect on OUR prices.

/also, in before 'that's not how the market works'

Actually, that really isn't how the market works.

It isn't based on some antiquated fantasy like "supply and demand," it's based entirely on the whims and fancies of speculators. That's why Iran's oil exports affect America's prices, despite (or perhaps "because") the fact that they don't export even a drop of oil to us.


Yep, I know. Sadly, this is the case.
 
2012-03-23 01:14:48 PM
Speculators historically made up about 30% of the market. They now comprise about 64%.
 
2012-03-23 01:24:47 PM

Grand_Moff_Joseph: Yes, because a drop in exports from Iran - who we get 0 oil from to begin with - has a direct effect on OUR prices.

/also, in before 'that's not how the market works'


I sure hope this is Poe's Law in action.
 
2012-03-23 01:25:31 PM

Grand_Moff_Joseph: King Something: Grand_Moff_Joseph: Yes, because a drop in exports from Iran - who we get 0 oil from to begin with - has a direct effect on OUR prices.

/also, in before 'that's not how the market works'

Actually, that really isn't how the market works.

It isn't based on some antiquated fantasy like "supply and demand," it's based entirely on the whims and fancies of speculators. That's why Iran's oil exports affect America's prices, despite (or perhaps "because") the fact that they don't export even a drop of oil to us.

Yep, I know. Sadly, this is the case.


Oh, Jesus, it isn't.
 
2012-03-23 01:26:18 PM

Sybarite: Speculators historically made up about 30% of the market. They now comprise about 64%.


That's like saying that because there are five people at the blackjack table rather than two, your odds of winning went down.
 
2012-03-23 01:45:58 PM

vygramul: Sybarite: Speculators historically made up about 30% of the market. They now comprise about 64%.

That's like saying that because there are five people at the blackjack table rather than two, your odds of winning went down.


Apples and oranges. There are a bunch of speculators who buy oil for the express purpose of selling it for profit. This is why four years ago, the price of oil jumped five dollars a barrel in one day - the highest single-day rise in oil prices, a record which stood for a whole whopping 24 hours when the new record was set at +$11/bbl in one day. That record was not broken the next day, and oil prices plummeted immediately afterwards.

See also: speculation in the housing market.

/and it wouldn't matter if there were a hundred people at the blackjack table, since they're playing against the house, not each other
 
2012-03-23 01:51:15 PM

King Something: Apples and oranges. There are a bunch of speculators who buy oil for the express purpose of selling it for profit. This is why four years ago, the price of oil jumped five dollars a barrel in one day - the highest single-day rise in oil prices, a record which stood for a whole whopping 24 hours when the new record was set at +$11/bbl in one day. That record was not broken the next day, and oil prices plummeted immediately afterwards.


I'll just keep posting this until someone, some day who has the power to do something actually gives a f*ck. (new window)
 
2012-03-23 01:53:42 PM
cnngps.files.wordpress.com
 
2012-03-23 01:55:29 PM

King Something: vygramul: Sybarite: Speculators historically made up about 30% of the market. They now comprise about 64%.

That's like saying that because there are five people at the blackjack table rather than two, your odds of winning went down.

Apples and oranges. There are a bunch of speculators who buy oil for the express purpose of selling it for profit. This is why four years ago, the price of oil jumped five dollars a barrel in one day - the highest single-day rise in oil prices, a record which stood for a whole whopping 24 hours when the new record was set at +$11/bbl in one day. That record was not broken the next day, and oil prices plummeted immediately afterwards.

See also: speculation in the housing market.

/and it wouldn't matter if there were a hundred people at the blackjack table, since they're playing against the house, not each other


Speculators can have a small effect in very short timescales, like a couple of days. But if you think Exxon is just a bunch of dupes who get swindled out of their oil by mysterious speculators who immediately turn a profit on it...

Commodities futures are a zero sum game. For every rich speculator who says the price is going up, there's a rich speculator who says the price will go down. Even Paul Krugman says that the nonsense alk of speculators drives him nuts.
 
2012-03-23 02:25:48 PM

vygramul: Grand_Moff_Joseph: Yes, because a drop in exports from Iran - who we get 0 oil from to begin with - has a direct effect on OUR prices.

/also, in before 'that's not how the market works'

I sure hope this is Poe's Law in action.


My point (likely poorly made), was to point out that in reality, what happens to oil that we do not use should not have much/any impact on the rice that we pay. I know full well that this is not how the market works...though in all honesty, the way the market does work is BS anyway. :)
 
2012-03-23 02:45:47 PM

Grand_Moff_Joseph: vygramul: Grand_Moff_Joseph: Yes, because a drop in exports from Iran - who we get 0 oil from to begin with - has a direct effect on OUR prices.

/also, in before 'that's not how the market works'

I sure hope this is Poe's Law in action.

My point (likely poorly made), was to point out that in reality, what happens to oil that we do not use should not have much/any impact on the rice that we pay. I know full well that this is not how the market works...though in all honesty, the way the market does work is BS anyway. :)


But that's like saying that since you don't get your gas from Shell, the fact it raised or lowered its prices doesn't affect what your Exxon charges. And you know that's not true. Your Exxon will look over and say, "dang, Shell is chargin $3.90 and I am only charging $3.80. I can raise my price to $3.85 and STILL win over customers!"
 
2012-03-23 02:54:02 PM
But the spare capacity.....
 
2012-03-23 03:13:53 PM

Grand_Moff_Joseph: Yes, because a drop in exports from Iran - who we get 0 oil from to begin with - has a direct effect on OUR prices.

/also, in before 'that's not how the market works'


fun·gi·ble/ˈfənjəbəl/
Adjective:
(of goods contracted for without an individual specimen being specified) Able to replace or be replaced by another identical item
 
2012-03-23 03:16:46 PM

NewportBarGuy: King Something: Apples and oranges. There are a bunch of speculators who buy oil for the express purpose of selling it for profit. This is why four years ago, the price of oil jumped five dollars a barrel in one day - the highest single-day rise in oil prices, a record which stood for a whole whopping 24 hours when the new record was set at +$11/bbl in one day. That record was not broken the next day, and oil prices plummeted immediately afterwards.

I'll just keep posting this until someone, some day who has the power to do something actually gives a f*ck. (new window)


Thanks for the link. Someone should post that link to freeperland.
 
2012-03-23 03:17:12 PM

Grand_Moff_Joseph: Yes, because a drop in exports from Iran - who we get 0 oil from to begin with - has a direct effect on OUR prices.


No, it does make sense. The people who do get their oil from Iran currently are going to start shifting their oil purchases to the countries that aren't affected by Middle East instability -- let's say, Canada. Since demand for Canadian oil has now increased, Canadian oil producers are going to jack up their prices until they hit the new equilibrium.
 
2012-03-23 03:18:15 PM

Sybarite: Speculators historically made up about 30% of the market. They now comprise about 64%.


WTF

plus, didnt we just impose oil embargos on iran?
HAHAHAHA
how is that hurting them? good thing it wont hurt us!!!
hahahahahahahah

best part: saud arabia is increasing their output to make up for all the losses from iran and then some.
LOL
 
2012-03-23 03:22:43 PM

Arkanaut: Grand_Moff_Joseph: Yes, because a drop in exports from Iran - who we get 0 oil from to begin with - has a direct effect on OUR prices.

No, it does make sense. The people who do get their oil from Iran currently are going to start shifting their oil purchases to the countries that aren't affected by Middle East instability -- let's say, Canada. Since demand for Canadian oil has now increased, Canadian oil producers are going to jack up their prices until they hit the new equilibrium.


just say fungible and let the tards look it up by themselves.
either they are ignorant, will look it up and go, "wow that makes sense" or they are tards, and no amount of words will ever help
 
2012-03-23 03:39:13 PM

Grand_Moff_Joseph: King Something: Grand_Moff_Joseph: Yes, because a drop in exports from Iran - who we get 0 oil from to begin with - has a direct effect on OUR prices.

/also, in before 'that's not how the market works'

Actually, that really isn't how the market works.

It isn't based on some antiquated fantasy like "supply and demand," it's based entirely on the whims and fancies of speculators. That's why Iran's oil exports affect America's prices, despite (or perhaps "because") the fact that they don't export even a drop of oil to us.

Yep, I know. Sadly, this is the case.


No, no it's not. Speculation might affect prices and volatility on the margin, but supply and demand are the reasons you're paying $4 per gallon.

Every 'speculator' who enteres into a futures contract to buy oil has to sell that oil prior to delivery, unless he wants to rent a tanker to hold it.
 
2012-03-23 03:39:34 PM
I hope speculators DIAF fueled by gas they have to pay for
 
2012-03-23 03:43:36 PM

ShawnDoc: [cnngps.files.wordpress.com image 640x360]


That looks like a New York Times graph. Typical right wing Times falsely blaming the drop in prices on some mythical 'financial crisis' and the ensuing rise on 'OPEC cutting production'. We all know it's due to speculation and if it weren't for them the price of gas would never fluctuate from $1.19 per gallon.
 
2012-03-23 03:45:20 PM

King Something: Grand_Moff_Joseph: Yes, because a drop in exports from Iran - who we get 0 oil from to begin with - has a direct effect on OUR prices.

/also, in before 'that's not how the market works'

Actually, that really isn't how the market works.

It isn't based on some antiquated fantasy like "supply and demand," it's based entirely on the whims and fancies of speculators. That's why Iran's oil exports affect America's prices, despite (or perhaps "because") the fact that they don't export even a drop of oil to us.


It's also fair to point out that investors have the attention spans of rabid ferrets.

Mildly bad news -- "OMG! PANIC! SELL SELL SELL!"

Mildly good news -- "OMG! AWESOME! BUY BUY BUY!"

How about not reacting to every rumor like it's doomsday? Would that be smarter investing advice?
 
2012-03-23 03:47:45 PM

vygramul: Sybarite: Speculators historically made up about 30% of the market. They now comprise about 64%.

That's like saying that because there are five people at the blackjack table rather than two, your odds of winning went down.


A blackjack table is not like an auction. Particularly where you plan to sell your bid to someone else and don't plan to go home with the goods
 
2012-03-23 03:56:49 PM

Jacobin: vygramul: Sybarite: Speculators historically made up about 30% of the market. They now comprise about 64%.

That's like saying that because there are five people at the blackjack table rather than two, your odds of winning went down.

A blackjack table is not like an auction. Particularly where you plan to sell your bid to someone else and don't plan to go home with the goods


Doesn't matter. The guy selling the oil to begin with could sell it to the same guy you are selling your bid to, but chooses not to because he thinks they won't buy it for that much. For every speculator, there's an Exxon executive selling the oil for less than he could have. The price would have gotten there anyway because I don't buy MORE gas just because there's another middleman in the loop. Same with everyone else. Exxon, BP, Shell, etc, are just betting the speculators are wrong on what that price will be. Smetimes they're right, sometimes they're not. In neither case does demand change.
 
2012-03-23 04:07:13 PM

namatad: Arkanaut: Grand_Moff_Joseph: Yes, because a drop in exports from Iran - who we get 0 oil from to begin with - has a direct effect on OUR prices.

No, it does make sense. The people who do get their oil from Iran currently are going to start shifting their oil purchases to the countries that aren't affected by Middle East instability -- let's say, Canada. Since demand for Canadian oil has now increased, Canadian oil producers are going to jack up their prices until they hit the new equilibrium.

just say fungible and let the tards look it up by themselves.
either they are ignorant, will look it up and go, "wow that makes sense" or they are tards, and no amount of words will ever help


dilbert.com
 
2012-03-23 04:08:04 PM

vygramul: Jacobin: vygramul: Sybarite: Speculators historically made up about 30% of the market. They now comprise about 64%.

That's like saying that because there are five people at the blackjack table rather than two, your odds of winning went down.

A blackjack table is not like an auction. Particularly where you plan to sell your bid to someone else and don't plan to go home with the goods

Doesn't matter. The guy selling the oil to begin with could sell it to the same guy you are selling your bid to, but chooses not to because he thinks they won't buy it for that much. For every speculator, there's an Exxon executive selling the oil for less than he could have. The price would have gotten there anyway because I don't buy MORE gas just because there's another middleman in the loop. Same with everyone else. Exxon, BP, Shell, etc, are just betting the speculators are wrong on what that price will be. Smetimes they're right, sometimes they're not. In neither case does demand change.


Further, each end user knows that the speculators are going to have to sell before they get the oil dropped off at their door. Net impact that speculators have on total demand for June oil is zero, unless they actually hoard the physical asset.
 
2012-03-23 04:23:02 PM
Off topic, was home energy use for the winter at an all time low or anything because of the warm weather?
 
2012-03-23 04:24:15 PM

Donnchadha: namatad: Arkanaut: Grand_Moff_Joseph: Yes, because a drop in exports from Iran - who we get 0 oil from to begin with - has a direct effect on OUR prices.

No, it does make sense. The people who do get their oil from Iran currently are going to start shifting their oil purchases to the countries that aren't affected by Middle East instability -- let's say, Canada. Since demand for Canadian oil has now increased, Canadian oil producers are going to jack up their prices until they hit the new equilibrium.

just say fungible and let the tards look it up by themselves.
either they are ignorant, will look it up and go, "wow that makes sense" or they are tards, and no amount of words will ever help

[dilbert.com image 640x287]


make me larf every time I see it
 
2012-03-23 04:26:31 PM
WASHINGTON, March 21 - Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) today introduced a bill to make federal regulators invoke emergency powers to rein in speculators responsible for rapidly-rising gasoline prices.

The legislation would set a 14-day deadline for the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to implement rules to stop excessive speculation by Wall Street traders in oil futures markets. Sanders' bill is cosponsored by Sens. Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.), Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio), Ben Cardin (D-Md.), Al Franken (D-Minn.), Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) and Bill Nelson (D-Fla.).
 
2012-03-23 04:34:21 PM

Grand_Moff_Joseph: King Something: Grand_Moff_Joseph: Yes, because a drop in exports from Iran - who we get 0 oil from to begin with - has a direct effect on OUR prices.

/also, in before 'that's not how the market works'

Actually, that really isn't how the market works.

It isn't based on some antiquated fantasy like "supply and demand," it's based entirely on the whims and fancies of speculators. That's why Iran's oil exports affect America's prices, despite (or perhaps "because") the fact that they don't export even a drop of oil to us.

Yep, I know. Sadly, this is the case.


Before you can speak intelligently on this, you probably ought to learn what the word "fungible" means, and why he fact that we do not get oil directly from Iran doesn't mean that we don't use Iranian oil or that Iranian oil isn't a part of what sets the world price.
 
2012-03-23 04:52:00 PM

Grand_Moff_Joseph: Yes, because a drop in exports from Iran - who we get 0 oil from to begin with - has a direct effect on OUR prices.

/also, in before 'that's not how the market works'


I'm glad to see you admit to not understanding how the world markets set our oil prices.
 
2012-03-23 04:54:20 PM
waiting for this bubble to burst...
 
2012-03-23 05:37:55 PM

Debeo Summa Credo: vygramul: Jacobin: vygramul: Sybarite: Speculators historically made up about 30% of the market. They now comprise about 64%.

That's like saying that because there are five people at the blackjack table rather than two, your odds of winning went down.

A blackjack table is not like an auction. Particularly where you plan to sell your bid to someone else and don't plan to go home with the goods

Doesn't matter. The guy selling the oil to begin with could sell it to the same guy you are selling your bid to, but chooses not to because he thinks they won't buy it for that much. For every speculator, there's an Exxon executive selling the oil for less than he could have. The price would have gotten there anyway because I don't buy MORE gas just because there's another middleman in the loop. Same with everyone else. Exxon, BP, Shell, etc, are just betting the speculators are wrong on what that price will be. Smetimes they're right, sometimes they're not. In neither case does demand change.

Further, each end user knows that the speculators are going to have to sell before they get the oil dropped off at their door. Net impact that speculators have on total demand for June oil is zero, unless they actually hoard the physical asset.


Yeah, speculation on oil futures has ZERO effect on the price of oil. It's totally up to supply and demand...
raisethehammer.org
 
2012-03-23 05:57:50 PM

aug3: WASHINGTON, March 21 - Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) today introduced a bill to make federal regulators invoke emergency powers to rein in speculators responsible for rapidly-rising gasoline prices.

The legislation would set a 14-day deadline for the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to implement rules to stop excessive speculation by Wall Street traders in oil futures markets. Sanders' bill is cosponsored by Sens. Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.), Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio), Ben Cardin (D-Md.), Al Franken (D-Minn.), Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) and Bill Nelson (D-Fla.).


....and it will be nerfed or killed by GOP filibuster.
 
2012-03-23 06:07:47 PM

Eatin' Queer Fetuses for Jesus: Debeo Summa Credo: vygramul: Jacobin: vygramul: Sybarite: Speculators historically made up about 30% of the market. They now comprise about 64%.

That's like saying that because there are five people at the blackjack table rather than two, your odds of winning went down.

A blackjack table is not like an auction. Particularly where you plan to sell your bid to someone else and don't plan to go home with the goods

Doesn't matter. The guy selling the oil to begin with could sell it to the same guy you are selling your bid to, but chooses not to because he thinks they won't buy it for that much. For every speculator, there's an Exxon executive selling the oil for less than he could have. The price would have gotten there anyway because I don't buy MORE gas just because there's another middleman in the loop. Same with everyone else. Exxon, BP, Shell, etc, are just betting the speculators are wrong on what that price will be. Smetimes they're right, sometimes they're not. In neither case does demand change.

Further, each end user knows that the speculators are going to have to sell before they get the oil dropped off at their door. Net impact that speculators have on total demand for June oil is zero, unless they actually hoard the physical asset.

Yeah, speculation on oil futures has ZERO effect on the price of oil. It's totally up to supply and demand...


Exactly. It is up to supply and demand. Speculation is marginal.
 
2012-03-23 06:12:25 PM
Speculators,yes. But also because the world oil supply has hit its peak and is in decline. Despite what the conservatives would tell you, the planetary core isn't made of oil. Drill baby drill, just isn't going to make a significant difference in oil prices in the future.
 
2012-03-23 06:41:44 PM
If speculators are the majority of traders in your market then speculation can never be 'marginal'. Their mission is to predict the way the market will move and make the greatest possible profit they can out of that prediction, not to actually obtain the commodity that they're bidding for. Thinking like that leads to a great deal of magnification from what would otherwise be minor or irrelevant market news and moves as the speculators start trying to figure out what every other speculator is going to do and not what the news or price level actually means for supply and demand.

It's the same kind of thinking that leads to self-fulfilling prophecies like Pivot Points and Bollinger Bands in most financial markets. A trader sees the price about to hit the top pivot point and immediately sells, all of the rest of the traders know that's going to happen so they sell too, and before you know it the price just shot down a massive amount for no particular reason other than the fact that it hit a certain level generated by a mathematical formula.
 
2012-03-23 06:50:57 PM

Grand Voivode: King Something: Grand_Moff_Joseph: Yes, because a drop in exports from Iran - who we get 0 oil from to begin with - has a direct effect on OUR prices.

/also, in before 'that's not how the market works'

Actually, that really isn't how the market works.

It isn't based on some antiquated fantasy like "supply and demand," it's based entirely on the whims and fancies of speculators. That's why Iran's oil exports affect America's prices, despite (or perhaps "because") the fact that they don't export even a drop of oil to us.

These two comments are so stupid, and demonstrate so much ignorance, that my IQ has dropped enough for me to enjoy the Jersey Shore.

Just tossing this out there: isn't it possible that oil is a globally traded commodity, and that while the U.S. doesn't buy any oil from Iran, other major oil importers do? And that if Iran stops supplying the oil to them (for whatever reason) the other countries would have to purchase oil from some one we do business with?

And that's not even getting into the heterogeneity of oil, and that certain refineries can only process certain grades of it.

Both of you should go back to your sociology classes before you embarrass yourselves even further.


Yah, Obama controls the prices! Just ask Fox and Fark politic threads and...
 
2012-03-23 08:22:14 PM

Adan: Yah, Obama controls the prices! Just ask Fox and Fark politic threads and...


Speculators are not to blame.
Obama is not to blame.

These are NOT mutually exclusive concepts.
 
2012-03-23 09:23:22 PM

vygramul: Adan: Yah, Obama controls the prices! Just ask Fox and Fark politic threads and...

Speculators are not to blame.
Obama is not to blame.

These are NOT mutually exclusive concepts.


Exactly! Jesus cripes.

Anyone who tells you that Obama is the reason that oil prices are up from the fall of 2008 to now is full of shiat. Same as anyone who tells you speculators drove the price increase.
 
2012-03-23 10:20:43 PM

vygramul: Sybarite: Speculators historically made up about 30% of the market. They now comprise about 64%.

That's like saying that because there are five people at the blackjack table rather than two, your odds of winning went down.


No, it's like saying that an increase in liquidity in the market cause inflation.
 
2012-03-23 10:23:17 PM

Debeo Summa Credo: Eatin' Queer Fetuses for Jesus: Debeo Summa Credo: vygramul: Jacobin: vygramul: Sybarite: Speculators historically made up about 30% of the market. They now comprise about 64%.

That's like saying that because there are five people at the blackjack table rather than two, your odds of winning went down.

A blackjack table is not like an auction. Particularly where you plan to sell your bid to someone else and don't plan to go home with the goods

Doesn't matter. The guy selling the oil to begin with could sell it to the same guy you are selling your bid to, but chooses not to because he thinks they won't buy it for that much. For every speculator, there's an Exxon executive selling the oil for less than he could have. The price would have gotten there anyway because I don't buy MORE gas just because there's another middleman in the loop. Same with everyone else. Exxon, BP, Shell, etc, are just betting the speculators are wrong on what that price will be. Smetimes they're right, sometimes they're not. In neither case does demand change.

Further, each end user knows that the speculators are going to have to sell before they get the oil dropped off at their door. Net impact that speculators have on total demand for June oil is zero, unless they actually hoard the physical asset.

Yeah, speculation on oil futures has ZERO effect on the price of oil. It's totally up to supply and demand...

Exactly. It is up to supply and demand. Speculation is marginal.


Umm... Did you miss that graph there, chief?
 
2012-03-23 10:34:04 PM

Eatin' Queer Fetuses for Jesus: Debeo Summa Credo: Eatin' Queer Fetuses for Jesus: Debeo Summa Credo: vygramul: Jacobin: vygramul: Sybarite: Speculators historically made up about 30% of the market. They now comprise about 64%.

That's like saying that because there are five people at the blackjack table rather than two, your odds of winning went down.

A blackjack table is not like an auction. Particularly where you plan to sell your bid to someone else and don't plan to go home with the goods

Doesn't matter. The guy selling the oil to begin with could sell it to the same guy you are selling your bid to, but chooses not to because he thinks they won't buy it for that much. For every speculator, there's an Exxon executive selling the oil for less than he could have. The price would have gotten there anyway because I don't buy MORE gas just because there's another middleman in the loop. Same with everyone else. Exxon, BP, Shell, etc, are just betting the speculators are wrong on what that price will be. Smetimes they're right, sometimes they're not. In neither case does demand change.

Further, each end user knows that the speculators are going to have to sell before they get the oil dropped off at their door. Net impact that speculators have on total demand for June oil is zero, unless they actually hoard the physical asset.

Yeah, speculation on oil futures has ZERO effect on the price of oil. It's totally up to supply and demand...

Exactly. It is up to supply and demand. Speculation is marginal.

Umm... Did you miss that graph there, chief?


No, I noticed your irrelevant graph.

I noted in it that during the big spike in 2007/2008, it appears that a gap develops between consumption (higher) and production. Other than that period it seems to even out, as you'd expect.

But if consumption is higher than production, who is providing the extra oil to cover consumption? Were speculators dumping their inventory during this period of rising prices?

Anyway, don't worry about it. Your graph is irrelevant.
 
2012-03-23 10:42:18 PM

Debeo Summa Credo: Eatin' Queer Fetuses for Jesus: Debeo Summa Credo: Eatin' Queer Fetuses for Jesus: Debeo Summa Credo: vygramul: Jacobin: vygramul: Sybarite: Speculators historically made up about 30% of the market. They now comprise about 64%.

That's like saying that because there are five people at the blackjack table rather than two, your odds of winning went down.

A blackjack table is not like an auction. Particularly where you plan to sell your bid to someone else and don't plan to go home with the goods

Doesn't matter. The guy selling the oil to begin with could sell it to the same guy you are selling your bid to, but chooses not to because he thinks they won't buy it for that much. For every speculator, there's an Exxon executive selling the oil for less than he could have. The price would have gotten there anyway because I don't buy MORE gas just because there's another middleman in the loop. Same with everyone else. Exxon, BP, Shell, etc, are just betting the speculators are wrong on what that price will be. Smetimes they're right, sometimes they're not. In neither case does demand change.

Further, each end user knows that the speculators are going to have to sell before they get the oil dropped off at their door. Net impact that speculators have on total demand for June oil is zero, unless they actually hoard the physical asset.

Yeah, speculation on oil futures has ZERO effect on the price of oil. It's totally up to supply and demand...

Exactly. It is up to supply and demand. Speculation is marginal.

Umm... Did you miss that graph there, chief?

No, I noticed your irrelevant graph.

I noted in it that during the big spike in 2007/2008, it appears that a gap develops between consumption (higher) and production. Other than that period it seems to even out, as you'd expect.

But if consumption is higher than production, who is providing the extra oil to cover consumption? Were speculators dumping their inventory during this period of rising prices?

Anyway, don't worry about it. Your graph is irrelevant.


From July 2008 to January 2009, why did the price of oil drop 75% when supply and demand both dropped less than 5%?
 
2012-03-23 10:43:34 PM

Debeo Summa Credo: No, I noticed your irrelevant graph.

I noted in it that during the big spike in 2007/2008, it appears that a gap develops between consumption (higher) and production. Other than that period it seems to even out, as you'd expect.

But if consumption is higher than production, who is providing the extra oil to cover consumption? Were speculators dumping their inventory during this period of rising prices?

Anyway, don't worry about it. Your graph is irrelevant.


I'm sure he gleaned all kinds of things from that graph. In addition to proving that oil speculation drives all gas price increases, it proves 9/11 was an inside job, Obama was born in Kenya, and that Glenn Beck raped killed a young girl in 1990.
 
2012-03-23 10:44:41 PM

Eatin' Queer Fetuses for Jesus: From July 2008 to January 2009, why did the price of oil drop 75% when supply and demand both dropped less than 5%?


Ask Paul Krugman. His answer will NOT include any version of the word "speculators".
 
2012-03-23 10:45:57 PM

vygramul: Debeo Summa Credo: No, I noticed your irrelevant graph.

I noted in it that during the big spike in 2007/2008, it appears that a gap develops between consumption (higher) and production. Other than that period it seems to even out, as you'd expect.

But if consumption is higher than production, who is providing the extra oil to cover consumption? Were speculators dumping their inventory during this period of rising prices?

Anyway, don't worry about it. Your graph is irrelevant.

I'm sure he gleaned all kinds of things from that graph. In addition to proving that oil speculation drives all gas price increases, it proves 9/11 was an inside job, Obama was born in Kenya, and that Glenn Beck raped killed a young girl in 1990.


Since you are so smart, maybe you can answer.

From July 2008 to January 2009, why did the price of oil drop 75% when supply and demand both dropped less than 5%?
 
2012-03-23 11:09:39 PM

vygramul: Eatin' Queer Fetuses for Jesus: From July 2008 to January 2009, why did the price of oil drop 75% when supply and demand both dropped less than 5%?

Ask Paul Krugman. His answer will NOT include any version of the word "speculators".


You sure about that?
 
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