Yes, but the Chinese build their houses out of horse shiat and straw., so the cost isn't really anything comparable.

Maybe their experiments with Deviator Tanks went awry.

Considering their construction only lasts 10 years that may be a sustainable model.

One of my co-workers has just found out about this and has been gloating about it for past couple of weeks. I don't think he realizes that when their housing bubble bursts, it'll drag down our economy the same way our bubble bursting dragged down Europe.

People still make the mistake of viewing the global economy as a zero-sum game, where a loss for another country is a win for yours.

Yes, but are they taking out mad loans which are then being sliced and diced and packed with other bits and pieces to be sold in AAAAA++++++ rated packages?

/run-on sentence is run-on

I remember seeing a video about the Chinese ghost towns. Where some 60,000 or some crazy number of empty houses in cities. All the malls are totally empty and yet they continue to build.

China is a paper dragon with dozens of empty cities to maintain growth rates.

anyone who thought it was the Chinese century needs to get out more.

Gunther: One of my co-workers has just found out about this and has been gloating about it for past couple of weeks. I don't think he realizes that when their housing bubble bursts, it'll drag down our economy the same way our bubble bursting dragged down Europe.

People still make the mistake of viewing the global economy as a zero-sum game, where a loss for another country is a win for yours.

Mercantilism dies hard with some people. I hope china doesn't crash; that would be awful for the USA as well (although gas would probably get cheaper, but that would be small help in the big picture).

I wouldn't mind if china loses some of its momentum or has a little recession, but we REALLY cant afford to have them collapse.

They been saying this for the past 15years

That's not a ghost town. That's the world's biggest brothel, about to be filled with thousands of young American lassies who default on their student loans.

Student loans can't be erased by bankruptcy, so you have to sell yourself into whoredom to pay them off.

And, coincidentally, China has far more young males than young females.

Of course I'm making this all up. Of course it's a troll.

Then again, ladies, when, years from now, you're offering up your virtue to desperate men in this "ghost town," remember who told you about it first...

If only there were some sort of horde of barbarian horsemen to burn all this real estate to the ground.

Anyone notice this part?

" China's 68th richest woman, Wu Ying, is facing the death penalty for schemes she ran in her 20s"

Hokey pokey me play jokie, all my houses up in smokie.

Gunther: One of my co-workers has just found out about this and has been gloating about it for past couple of weeks. I don't think he realizes that when their housing bubble bursts, it'll drag down our economy the same way our bubble bursting dragged down Europe.

People still make the mistake of viewing the global economy as a zero-sum game, where a loss for another country is a win for yours.

Its going to be much much worse. The only thing keeping the Communist in power is that the people are content with their rising prosperity.

If the jobs go away and the poor are starving, you will see another Tienanmen Square incident. After all, what have they to lose?

This will cause huge problems in the US.

For example - imagine if the Foxconn factory that all iPad/iPhones are manufactured at go up in smoke. Apple would be out of business for months or maybe years as they moved production somewhere else, GM would be out of business for a few months also as they tried to find alternate suppliers for auto parts, etc.

that dictatorship of the proletariat? how's that working for you?

some_beer_drinker:
i think you mean they are looking west. india is west of china. moran.

...and the Iranians are looking EAST, in the direction of China from Iran.

So does that mean that the US will buy billions of Chinese bonds to support their downturn???
as China did to support the US in its own downturn...

And will they protest that they are "owned" by the US then as Americans did previously???

Or will everything just null and void everything else out
and everyone can just go back to happy, happy, joy, joy...no one owing anything to anyone.

They're building a lot more than empty houses to keep people working. (new window)

One terrible thing about building these ghost cities is that they do little to preserve anything that is there before. Ancient ruins, classic architecture...doesn't matter.

The bigger question is who is going to buy our bad paper when the Chinese economy shifts into a net deficit?

Well it couldn't happen to nicer people. Can't wait to see the disaster as it happens.

schief2: Anyone with even a passing familiarity with China could see this coming.

My in-laws bought a townhouse in a new suburban-style development on the edge of a big city over there. A couple years later, we visited. Of the 24 units on their street, all 24 were sold and exactly 2, including theirs, were being lived in. The rest were owned by speculators (excuse me, "investors") and had never been occupied.

/Chinese Story Bro

Considering inflation far outpaces the returns they get from banks, I don't really blame people for investing in real estate over there. And as much as I wouldn't trust Chinese real estate, I think I'd have even less faith in Chinese companies in the stock market.

Picture the world economy as a bridge. This bridge has four major supports holding it up. Those four are America, China, Europe, and the Middle East. In normal times, any one of these supports can be significantly weakened, without bringing the rest of the structure down. Of course, in large part because of the sub-prime mess, all four have been weakened. So now we have the unfortunate situation we're in. That is if any one of the four major supports collapses, the whole structure comes crashing down.
In my mind it isn't a question of if we will have a catastrophic failure, but when. And while which one of the supports goes first is interesting, it really doesn't make much of a difference in the end.

Oh, and for those of you with post apocalyptic fantasies? Sorry not going to happen. Things are going to suck, and we will have riots, wars, and the like, but a Mad Max style complete societal breakdown? Nope not going to happen. Worse case scenario for the United States is balkanization, but even that is unlikely.
More like multiple generations living in a single household, a much simpler diet, and very wide spread unemployment. Like 50% unemployment. Governmental services will be cut to the bone. Hunger and even starvation may return to parts of the country. In this kind of environment, look for increased nationalism and a backlash against immigrants. If we do have a change in our government, while it certainly be called it, a fascist type government is much more likely than a full communist one.

Anywhoo, fun times ahead, cities will burn, and millions will probably die. More, much more perhaps, if we end up in another world war.

TheHopeDiamond: Well it couldn't happen to nicer people. Can't wait to see the disaster as it happens.

You do realize that's like wishing your downstairs neighbors apartment to catch fire, right?

BigBooper: United States is balkanization

tbh, i could kinda dig it.

Badafuco: I remember seeing a video about the Chinese ghost towns. Where some 60,000 or some crazy number of empty houses in cities. All the malls are totally empty and yet they continue to build.

New South China Mall (Chinese: 新华南MALL; pinyin: Xinhuánán MALL) in Dongguan, China is the largest mall in the world based on gross leasable area, and ranked second in total area to the Dubai Mall.[2] However, it is largely vacant. Unlike other "dead malls", which have been characterized by the departure of tenants, the New South China Mall has been 99% vacant since its 2005 opening as very few merchants have ever signed up.

wiki (new window)

China is not the US. They don't do things the same way. The money of their population is held by the national bank. Aside from businesses, it is pretty much the only place to put your money. The bank pays pretty crappy interest. The government controls the bank, so they have most of the nations GDP sitting in a single place, ready to be lent out whenever they need it. They don't get the efficiency or innovative benefits associated with stock market investment, but they also don't have to worry about inefficient stock markets sucking all the profits out of their ventures.

They build on a huge speculative scale well in advance of demand. The rings of immense roads circling Beijing were empty for almost a decade because the Chinese didn't have enough cars to fill them. Now those roads are packed bumper to bumper every day all day (even when only half the cars are allowed to be on the street any given day). China builds large cities in the middle of nowhere that are mostly empty for 5 years, then fill up beyond capacity inside a year. They build it, and the people come. Lots and lots and lots of people. Its not a system that can be sustained forever, and they know that. But it is a system that has allowed them to take advantage of massive long-term economies of scale that we would never even dream of.

Its not a better system, and it may well be a much worse system that is destined for devastating collapse. But it is by no means a comparable system. Indicators and lessons of US economy simply do not apply.

HempHead: Gunther: One of my co-workers has just found out about this and has been gloating about it for past couple of weeks. I don't think he realizes that when their housing bubble bursts, it'll drag down our economy the same way our bubble bursting dragged down Europe.

People still make the mistake of viewing the global economy as a zero-sum game, where a loss for another country is a win for yours.

Its going to be much much worse. The only thing keeping the Communist in power is that the people are content with their rising prosperity.

If the jobs go away and the poor are starving, you will see another Tienanmen Square incident. After all, what have they to lose?

This will cause huge problems in the US.

For example - imagine if the Foxconn factory that all iPad/iPhones are manufactured at go up in smoke. Apple would be out of business for months or maybe years as they moved production somewhere else, GM would be out of business for a few months also as they tried to find alternate suppliers for auto parts, etc.

Perhaps there are people on the north american continent that would be willing to take these jobs.

salvador.hardin: China is not the US. They don't do things the same way. The money of their population is held by the national bank. Aside from businesses, it is pretty much the only place to put your money. The bank pays pretty crappy interest. The government controls the bank, so they have most of the nations GDP sitting in a single place, ready to be lent out whenever they need it. They don't get the efficiency or innovative benefits associated with stock market investment, but they also don't have to worry about inefficient stock markets sucking all the profits out of their ventures.

They build on a huge speculative scale well in advance of demand. The rings of immense roads circling Beijing were empty for almost a decade because the Chinese didn't have enough cars to fill them. Now those roads are packed bumper to bumper every day all day (even when only half the cars are allowed to be on the street any given day). China builds large cities in the middle of nowhere that are mostly empty for 5 years, then fill up beyond capacity inside a year. They build it, and the people come. Lots and lots and lots of people. Its not a system that can be sustained forever, and they know that. But it is a system that has allowed them to take advantage of massive long-term economies of scale that we would never even dream of.

Its not a better system, and it may well be a much worse system that is destined for devastating collapse. But it is by no means a comparable system. Indicators and lessons of US economy simply do not apply.

On top of that, the savings rate is very high in China, with people saving up to half of their income. They have practically no retirement support outside of what they make and inflation has been pretty steep for years.

how are these cities empty? i would squat the fark out of them.

Incontinent_dog_and_monkey_rodeo: The bigger question is who is going to buy our bad paper when the Chinese economy shifts into a net deficit?

Hope someone will because they'll be dumping our bonds on the secondary market to raise cash.

man metaphysical: how are these cities empty? i would squat the fark out of them.

The government has guns, and you do not. Back to the fields peasant!

AcneVulgaris: Perhaps there are people on the north american continent that would be willing to take these jobs.

Not for $2 an hour, they aren't.

American consumers aren't willing to pay for American labor.

AcneVulgaris: Perhaps there are people on the north american continent that would be willing to take these jobs.

There of course would be plenty of workers, but setting up a factory would take months if not years. Just getting the permits from local government could take 6 months.

some_beer_drinker: whither_apophis: Don't worry, there'll be a nasty war in S. Asia that will ease the "millions of unmarried men in their twenties" issue.

/Pakistan, India, China... is it any wonder why the Iranians want a bomb? They're looking east at lot more than west.

i think you mean they are looking west. india is west of china. moran.

And yet, both are east of Iran, which was the point of that post.

If they relax their 1 child policy, those houses will be filled up in 20 years or so.

sendtodave: AcneVulgaris: Perhaps there are people on the north american continent that would be willing to take these jobs.

Not for $2 an hour, they aren't.

American consumers aren't willing to pay for American labor.

They will be if there is no alternative.

BigBooper: Worse case scenario for the United States is balkanization, but even that is unlikely.

I can't imagine Balkanization happening in the United States again. People don't have nearly as much loyalty to their region or state of residence as they did in the 1800s. Even if it were to go down that path again, there's always going to be 30% to 55% of people on the "wrong side" of a border created by ideological factions.

The residents of Austin would likely hold no allegiance to a conservative breakaway of Texas, nor would rural conservatives stand by idly were the West Coast states to go off on their own. It's just not workable without massive migration, forced or otherwise.

Of course, hardliners on both sides would probably like to see their political enemies go away permanently like that, but the cost would be too high for all but the most hardcore partisans.

Badafuco: I remember seeing a video about the Chinese ghost towns. Where some 60,000 or some crazy number of empty houses in cities. All the malls are totally empty and yet they continue to build.

What amazes me is how people think they know what is or isn't working. In the 90s there too were empty buildings and roads, and now those empty buildings and roads are packed. They don't plan in months or even years, they plan in decades. This is a population of nearly 1.5B people with an economy that's approaching that of the US, you are bound to have inefficiencies in the system. And when you build something, you build on massive scales, and just because it's not being used atm doesn't mean it won't be.

You see an empty city, which in the US would probably be a big deal... an empty city means hundreds of thousands or even millions of homes and residences that are unused. But that is nothing in China, a drop in a vast ocean. That is like looking at an empty subdivision in the US and saying the entire US housing market is in trouble. We know it's not true, but if you were to ask a third world African or something, they would probably see it as trouble as well. You're generalizing a ghost town in Mongolia with the entire Chinese housing market? Absurd.

They're planning decades in advance. As the middle-class rise in China, those who are in Walmart dorms factory now will want to have homes or apartments. You're talking about hundreds of millions of people moving from poverty to middle-class in the coming years. HUNDREDS OF MILLIONS.

sendtodave: AcneVulgaris: Perhaps there are people on the north american continent that would be willing to take these jobs.

Not for $2 an hour, they aren't.

Unemployed American consumers aren't willing to can't pay for American labor.

salvador.hardin: China is not the US. They don't do things the same way. The money of their population is held by the national bank. Aside from businesses, it is pretty much the only place to put your money. The bank pays pretty crappy interest. The government controls the bank, so they have most of the nations GDP sitting in a single place, ready to be lent out whenever they need it. They don't get the efficiency or innovative benefits associated with stock market investment, but they also don't have to worry about inefficient stock markets sucking all the profits out of their ventures.

They build on a huge speculative scale well in advance of demand. The rings of immense roads circling Beijing were empty for almost a decade because the Chinese didn't have enough cars to fill them. Now those roads are packed bumper to bumper every day all day (even when only half the cars are allowed to be on the street any given day). China builds large cities in the middle of nowhere that are mostly empty for 5 years, then fill up beyond capacity inside a year. They build it, and the people come. Lots and lots and lots of people. Its not a system that can be sustained forever, and they know that. But it is a system that has allowed them to take advantage of massive long-term economies of scale that we would never even dream of.

Its not a better system, and it may well be a much worse system that is destined for devastating collapse. But it is by no means a comparable system. Indicators and lessons of US economy simply do not apply.

Yeah, I heard people say the same kinds of things about the Japanese. "Their system is different, so you can't judge it the same way." Worked out about as well as Dow 36,000.