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(Washington Post)   The simple reality is that Mitt Romney only needs 48% of the remaining delegates to secure the nomination. And there's no way Santorum can stop him from reaching that easily achievable goal   (washingtonpost.com) divider line 121
    More: Obvious, Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum, delegates, American Samoa  
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2607 clicks; posted to Politics » on 14 Mar 2012 at 11:11 PM (2 years ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2012-03-14 09:25:30 PM  
The fact that caucuses and deep south (both attract the lunatic fringe of the party) are the only groups saying Mitt is not the right guy should be viewed as a positive.
Only now has Mitt taken some crazed positions to appease the religious lunatic fringe. Leave planned parenthood alone.
Mitt is a Mormon which can be view as a good thing. The US is their holy land and most Mormons are live and live even serving drinks and dealing cards even though they do not generally drink or gamble. Mormons serve in high numbers in the Military. Mitt changes his mind after considering things; most Americans would believe that is a good thing. The fact the far religious right so detests him makes him seem likeable to me. Not really likeable but capable to piss off both sides so he can be the Man with a workable plan.
 
2012-03-14 10:00:03 PM  

eurotrader: The fact that caucuses and deep south (both attract the lunatic fringe of the party) are the only groups saying Mitt is not the right guy should be viewed as a positive.
Only now has Mitt taken some crazed positions to appease the religious lunatic fringe. Leave planned parenthood alone.
Mitt is a Mormon which can be view as a good thing. The US is their holy land and most Mormons are live and live even serving drinks and dealing cards even though they do not generally drink or gamble. Mormons serve in high numbers in the Military. Mitt changes his mind after considering things; most Americans would believe that is a good thing. The fact the far religious right so detests him makes him seem likeable to me. Not really likeable but capable to piss off both sides so he can be the Man with a workable plan.


It isn't his religion that is turning everyone off- it is him. His demeanor. His inability to take a stand on anything. His disingenuous attempts to connect with the average american.
 
2012-03-14 10:10:40 PM  
The reality is that the RINO's will get the guy who lost to McCain. Who was the guy who lost to Hopey McDouchebag. So, grab your woodies, libtards...you'll probably get 4 more years of Greece.
 
2012-03-14 10:17:01 PM  

eurotrader: both attract the lunatic fringe of the party


Also known as the core of the GOP.
 
2012-03-14 10:44:02 PM  

dslfobia: The reality is that the RINO's will get the guy who lost to McCain. Who was the guy who lost to Hopey McDouchebag. So, grab your woodies, libtards...you'll probably get 4 more years of Greece.


Why do you hate America?
 
2012-03-14 10:49:09 PM  

propasaurus: dslfobia: The reality is that the RINO's will get the guy who lost to McCain. Who was the guy who lost to Hopey McDouchebag. So, grab your woodies, libtards...you'll probably get 4 more years of Greece.

Why do you hate America?


She won't let him touch her... Down there.
 
2012-03-14 10:56:37 PM  
What this is starting to boil down to is that the Republicans can't catch the presidency with a Mitt
 
2012-03-14 10:56:51 PM  
It's simple, if Gingrich stays in the race Romney wins. If Gingrich drops out before the next primary Santorum wins out and it's a split convention.
 
2012-03-14 11:10:36 PM  

Nadie_AZ: It isn't his religion that is turning everyone off- it is him. His demeanor. His inability to take a stand on anything. His disingenuous attempts to connect with the average american.


Different things are turning him off to different audiences. His religion is definitely playing a factor in some important circles of social conservatives. His lack of foreign policy experience or vision or even message is noted by national security fanatics. He already has the economic conservative votes sewn up, but that's only 1/3 of the votes. To get a firm grip and presence he needs 2 of those 3 legs of the stool. Not just one. But Santorum has one of them and Gingrich has the other one.
 
2012-03-14 11:12:59 PM  
The Santantrum will likely continue.
 
2012-03-14 11:15:10 PM  

WTF Indeed: It's simple, if Gingrich stays in the race Romney wins. If Gingrich drops out before the next primary Santorum wins out and it's a split convention.



Romney wins whether Gingrich stays or goes. Math.

Santorum is playing to be the nominee next time.
 
2012-03-14 11:16:12 PM  
I wouldn't say that quite yet.

There are a bunch of states, like mine, that already had their primary elections (and Santorum won), but the delegates will be decided later. When these primaries finally get divvyed out Santorum should jump up quite a bit. I still think that Rmoney is the candidate, but Santorum hasn't gotten his full earned tally yet.
 
2012-03-14 11:16:30 PM  
I'm just hoping that Santorum, Gingrinch, and Paul will combine to get 1144 so we get a LOLTASTIC brokered convention.
 
2012-03-14 11:19:00 PM  

dslfobia: The reality is that the RINO's will get the guy who lost to McCain. Who was the guy who lost to Hopey McDouchebag. So, grab your woodies, libtards...you'll probably get 4 more years of Greece.


It's almost as if the RINOs are the real people who actually make up the party and you're the lunatic fringe that people tolerate because it's easy to make you fall in line.

But that surely couldn't be it. It's probably a Muslim conspiracy.
 
2012-03-14 11:19:26 PM  

dslfobia: The reality is that the RINO's will get the guy who lost to McCain. Who was the guy who lost to Hopey McDouchebag. So, grab your woodies, libtards...you'll probably get 4 more years of Greece.


img195.imageshack.us
 
2012-03-14 11:19:32 PM  
Ah, Ms. Rubin, why haven't you been fired yet?

Link (new window)
 
2012-03-14 11:20:22 PM  

dslfobia: The reality is that the RINO's will get the guy who lost to McCain. Who was the guy who lost to Hopey McDouchebag. So, grab your woodies, libtards...you'll probably get 4 more years of Greece.


So, ineffective austerity measures that drive the country deeper into debt and spark riots? Sounds more like a Republican plan to me.
 
2012-03-14 11:23:45 PM  

Gwyrddu: dslfobia: The reality is that the RINO's will get the guy who lost to McCain. Who was the guy who lost to Hopey McDouchebag. So, grab your woodies, libtards...you'll probably get 4 more years of Greece.

So, ineffective austerity measures that drive the country deeper into debt and spark riots? Sounds more like a Republican plan to me.


Your mistake was assuming that he has any idea why greece's economy collapsed. He doesn't really understand international monetary policies, but he knows that fartbama is to blame, somehow.
 
2012-03-14 11:24:13 PM  

dslfobia: The reality is that the RINO's will get the guy who lost to McCain. Who was the guy who lost to Hopey McDouchebag. So, grab your woodies, libtards...you'll probably get 4 more years of Greece. the field of candidates the GOP has is full of f#$@ing simpleton, clueless retards


All better
 
2012-03-14 11:24:36 PM  

bartink: WTF Indeed: It's simple, if Gingrich stays in the race Romney wins. If Gingrich drops out before the next primary Santorum wins out and it's a split convention.


Romney wins whether Gingrich stays or goes. Math.

Santorum is playing to be the nominee next time.


While this is about 99% right... if Santorum really won decisively in Missouri, Illinois, Louisiana, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Indiana, NC, WV, Nebraska, Arkansas, Kentucky, and especially Texas... that draws a lot of electors away before California & NJ in June, which is when otherwise Romney should wrap it up. But, Santorum has to really roll out the wins.... and obviously, no Newt would help that a lot.
 
2012-03-14 11:24:56 PM  
Sure, but can Santorum AND Gingrich prevent that number is the question that needs to be asked. No doubt that Romney will get the plurality, but the majority might be something else. The right fringe can raise a lot of hell in this election yet.
 
2012-03-14 11:26:44 PM  
There is 1 person who definately has a legitimate chance to prevent him from getting the nomination, and will probably make a strong push to achieve it...... Mitt Romney
 
2012-03-14 11:29:47 PM  
images.cheezburger.com

bartink: WTF Indeed: It's simple, if Gingrich stays in the race Romney wins. If Gingrich drops out before the next primary Santorum wins out and it's a split convention.


Romney wins whether Gingrich stays or goes. Math.

Santorum is playing to be the nominee next time.


That worked so well for Huckabee.
 
2012-03-14 11:30:20 PM  

Longtime Lurker: Sure, but can Santorum AND Gingrich prevent that number is the question that needs to be asked.


I have seen this asked. I understand the answer could be yes. I think that is what is on the table. Otherwise there is just no reason for Newt to continue. He's already said enough outrageous things to get him a talking head role on Fox when he drops out.
 
2012-03-14 11:31:21 PM  
There is only one way to beat the Mitt-Math. Gingrich must decide to take one for the team, drop out and endorse Santorum. It has to be very soon, too.

But what are the odds that Newt would control his own monstrous ego long enough to step away from all the attention he's getting now?

Congrats Mitt. You are the inevitable nominee.
 
2012-03-14 11:32:00 PM  

dletter: bartink: WTF Indeed: It's simple, if Gingrich stays in the race Romney wins. If Gingrich drops out before the next primary Santorum wins out and it's a split convention.


Romney wins whether Gingrich stays or goes. Math.

Santorum is playing to be the nominee next time.

While this is about 99% right... if Santorum really won decisively in Missouri, Illinois, Louisiana, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Indiana, NC, WV, Nebraska, Arkansas, Kentucky, and especially Texas... that draws a lot of electors away before California & NJ in June, which is when otherwise Romney should wrap it up. But, Santorum has to really roll out the wins.... and obviously, no Newt would help that a lot.


dletter: bartink: WTF Indeed: It's simple, if Gingrich stays in the race Romney wins. If Gingrich drops out before the next primary Santorum wins out and it's a split convention.


Romney wins whether Gingrich stays or goes. Math.

Santorum is playing to be the nominee next time.

While this is about 99% right... if Santorum really won decisively in Missouri, Illinois, Louisiana, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Indiana, NC, WV, Nebraska, Arkansas, Kentucky, and especially Texas... that draws a lot of electors away before California & NJ in June, which is when otherwise Romney should wrap it up. But, Santorum has to really roll out the wins.... and obviously, no Newt would help that a lot.


I disagree with this. Not all of Gingrich's supporters are going to flock to Romney, some will inevitably switch to Romney. All three candidates know that Romney is going to get the plurality of delegates, but the only hope to prevent him from getting the nomination is for him to come short of the required number. Santorum and Gingrich have been cooperating a lot lately. They know that if Romney comes up short, even with the most delegates, they can command a steep price to take him over the top. (or in a more ego maniacal way, they can hope for a brokered convention that the far right wants)
 
2012-03-14 11:32:18 PM  

bartink: WTF Indeed: It's simple, if Gingrich stays in the race Romney wins. If Gingrich drops out before the next primary Santorum wins out and it's a split convention.


Romney wins whether Gingrich stays or goes. Math.

Santorum is playing to be the nominee next time.


Pretty much. All of the intrigue about a brokered convention is mere speculation to pass the time during a pretty dull, predictable primary season. I suppose I would get a visceral thrill out of seeing the GOP candidates tear each other apart in Florida, but it's more than likely that Romney will reach the magic number and that Republican voters will fall in line behind him in the finest spirit of faux-adoration.

What I'm looking forward to is several months of "we always liked Romney". Boy won't that be a hoot.
 
2012-03-14 11:32:34 PM  

what_now: Gwyrddu: dslfobia: The reality is that the RINO's will get the guy who lost to McCain. Who was the guy who lost to Hopey McDouchebag. So, grab your woodies, libtards...you'll probably get 4 more years of Greece.

So, ineffective austerity measures that drive the country deeper into debt and spark riots? Sounds more like a Republican plan to me.

Your mistake was assuming that he has any idea why greece's economy collapsed. He doesn't really understand international monetary policies, but he knows that fartbama is to blame, somehow.


Yeah...clueless. A clueless troll...move along.
 
2012-03-14 11:33:33 PM  

RminusQ: Santorum is playing to be the nominee next time.

That worked so well for Huckabee.


Huckabee came in third, not second (new window) in 2008. Only seconds get the carpet rolled out for them next time. Thirds don't get jack. If Santorum comes in second, he'll be looked at for the next nominating cycle if he wants it.
 
2012-03-14 11:35:07 PM  
Romney is using the same scheme to get delegates without majority support that BHO used against Hillary. Republicans need to go with a candidate that contrasts the policies of Obama, not adopts them.
 
2012-03-14 11:36:00 PM  

randomjsa: The Santantrum will likely continue.


3.bp.blogspot.com
 
2012-03-14 11:36:37 PM  

Loucifer: Congrats Mitt. You are the inevitable nominee.


I still find it very very hard to believe the Republican Party will actually go through with this and nominate a Mormon. The weeping and wailing in the Deep South will spill into Tampa. Whatever happens, it will not be smooth.
 
2012-03-14 11:37:44 PM  

Longtime Lurker: dletter: bartink: WTF Indeed: It's simple, if Gingrich stays in the race Romney wins. If Gingrich drops out before the next primary Santorum wins out and it's a split convention.


Romney wins whether Gingrich stays or goes. Math.

Santorum is playing to be the nominee next time.

While this is about 99% right... if Santorum really won decisively in Missouri, Illinois, Louisiana, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Indiana, NC, WV, Nebraska, Arkansas, Kentucky, and especially Texas... that draws a lot of electors away before California & NJ in June, which is when otherwise Romney should wrap it up. But, Santorum has to really roll out the wins.... and obviously, no Newt would help that a lot.

dletter: bartink: WTF Indeed: It's simple, if Gingrich stays in the race Romney wins. If Gingrich drops out before the next primary Santorum wins out and it's a split convention.


Romney wins whether Gingrich stays or goes. Math.

Santorum is playing to be the nominee next time.

While this is about 99% right... if Santorum really won decisively in Missouri, Illinois, Louisiana, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Indiana, NC, WV, Nebraska, Arkansas, Kentucky, and especially Texas... that draws a lot of electors away before California & NJ in June, which is when otherwise Romney should wrap it up. But, Santorum has to really roll out the wins.... and obviously, no Newt would help that a lot.

I disagree with this. Not all of Gingrich's supporters are going to flock to Romney, some will inevitably switch to Romney. All three candidates know that Romney is going to get the plurality of delegates, but the only hope to prevent him from getting the nomination is for him to come short of the required number. Santorum and Gingrich have been cooperating a lot lately. They know that if Romney comes up short, even with the most delegates, they can command a steep price to take him over the top. (or in a more ego maniacal way, they can hope for a brokered convention that the far right wants)


Maybe you misunderstood me... I am saying, although the delegate math does lean strongly to Romney, I do think he could come up short.... but, Santorum has to run the board on all those states I listed.... Romney has to only win the New England "home" states he is expected to win (and I give him the advantage on Pacific Coast states as well). And, as I said, no Newt (if we figure that Newt's vote would go about 65/35 to Santorum) would help this. Maybe you are disagreeing Newt has to drop out tho.
 
2012-03-14 11:39:32 PM  

RandomExcess: Romney is using the same scheme to get delegates without majority support that BHO used against Hillary. Republicans need to go with a candidate that contrasts the policies of Obama, not adopts them.


Kinda--the Republican contests have become more like the Democratic ones, but not by much. There are still essentially winner-take all states with lots of convoluted rules to get that way. But winning a primary and winning a general are very different things. I don't think the comparison between Romney and Obama is apt, except that Obama can get down with Sportscenter and hang with the average Joe without looking foolish. Romney can't. Literally, he can't.
 
2012-03-14 11:41:39 PM  
Satanic_Hamster: randomjsa: The Santantrum will likely continue.

[3.bp.blogspot.com image 400x225]


I love you, you magnificent bastard.
 
2012-03-14 11:45:51 PM  
The question then is why does Mitt keep playing along with the jackwagons? If this thing is as wrapped up as we're suggesting, why did he just plow *huge* amounts of money into 'bama and Mississippi? Why is he making huge ad buys in Illinois right now? He didn't get to multi-millionaire status (past inheritance) by being a big wasteful spender.

I could see spending the money if you're trying to get some grassroots and longer-term loyalty going in a state that matters in the general. Like Obama's 2008 primary work in Ohio and Pennsylvania. None of those three matter, though. Illinois is going for Obama. If Mitt can't get AL and MS, he's utterly dead in the water.
 
2012-03-14 11:46:32 PM  
While that's true subby, what Santorum can do is get enough delegates that they more or less have to give him the VP slot. And given that his (batshiat crazy) Conservative credentials balance out Romney's moderatism, he's more or less a lock.
 
2012-03-14 11:49:36 PM  
I heard RON PAUL has more caucus delegates than anyone. You'll all be surprised, just you wait.
 
2012-03-14 11:53:56 PM  
If Mitt gets a very small majority of delegates, can there still be a brokered convention?

Because if so, and the Republicans do it in order to put up a "real conservative," that would be the best thing ever.
 
2012-03-14 11:56:32 PM  

Longtime Lurker: Sure, but can Santorum AND Gingrich prevent that number is the question that needs to be asked. No doubt that Romney will get the plurality, but the majority might be something else. The right fringe can raise a lot of hell in this election yet.


I agree with this. It doesn't matter how the non-Rmoney delegates are distributed amongst Frothy, Newt and RON PAUL. The key is to keep Rmoney from getting over the magic number. If they do that then we go into a GOP convention with no sure nominee in sight. Has that ever happened?

Santorum doesn't have to beat Rmoney to get the nod. All he has to do is keep Mittens from getting it, and then convince the Convention that Romney is not the man for the job. If he can get Newt on board with the promise of a plum gig in his administration he could pull it off.

Keepin' mah fingars crossed!
 
2012-03-14 11:56:33 PM  
Santorum does have the most important qualification for the job of VP under Romney. He would be so farking much worse at the job that no one will seriously think of assassinating Romney. Just look at Quayle, Gore, Cheney and Biden to see how important that qualification is for the job.
 
2012-03-15 12:00:33 AM  
After watching Gingrich's speech last night, I only have one question:

How much is Romney paying Gingrich to stay in the race?


Gingrich already forced out other "conservative" candidates, denied Santorum potential victories in Georgia and South Carolina, and continues to split the "conservative" delegates. There's no way this is accidental.

If this is Romney's doing, I say Kudos for him: being sharp enough to neutralize his own opposition by creating more of it shows he's a player.
 
2012-03-15 12:01:06 AM  

Shaggy_C: I heard RON PAUL has more caucus delegates than anyone. You'll all be surprised, just you wait.


Caucus delegates aren't in the Constitution
 
2012-03-15 12:01:36 AM  

Somacandra: RminusQ: Santorum is playing to be the nominee next time.

That worked so well for Huckabee.

Huckabee came in third, not second (new window) in 2008. Only seconds get the carpet rolled out for them next time. Thirds don't get jack. If Santorum comes in second, he'll be looked at for the next nominating cycle if he wants it.


Looked at and discarded, unless they really think another doubling down on the derp will win them anything.
 
2012-03-15 12:01:59 AM  
Funny that Romney will be the nominee despite the fact that rank and file of the party can't stand him. As usual, the Republican Party always makes sure the establishment candidate gets the nod.
 
2012-03-15 12:05:34 AM  
I read the HL in the voice of the Architect from the Matrix.

upload.wikimedia.org
 
2012-03-15 12:08:12 AM  
Here's how my math works...

Rmoney + PAUL = 484 + 69 = 553. 1144 - 553 = 591 needed.

Frothy + Newt = 239 + 136 = 375. 1144 - 375 = 769 needed.

I know that it looks grim for the Frothy One, but we'll know by June if it can be done. Keep your chin up, Rick! Hang in there, Newt!
 
2012-03-15 12:10:57 AM  

Lawnchair: The question then is why does Mitt keep playing along with the jackwagons? If this thing is as wrapped up as we're suggesting, why did he just plow *huge* amounts of money into 'bama and Mississippi? Why is he making huge ad buys in Illinois right now? He didn't get to multi-millionaire status (past inheritance) by being a big wasteful spender.

I could see spending the money if you're trying to get some grassroots and longer-term loyalty going in a state that matters in the general. Like Obama's 2008 primary work in Ohio and Pennsylvania. None of those three matter, though. Illinois is going for Obama. If Mitt can't get AL and MS, he's utterly dead in the water.


Two ideas:

1) Romney is fearful of a low Republican turnout that would swing the Congress. The Republican Party already has a schism and the Money isn't going to bother with the Base anyway because they won't vote for a Democrat. But the Base is getting really pissy about purity contests and owning 'their' party. If the Base doesn't turn out, then the Republican Party is finished, and that'll be it for them. The Republican pandering to their loyal followers shows that those followers are not that loyal.

2) The people funding the Republican Party realize it's a lost cause and are throwing the election. Mitt doesn't have it in him to bow out or wait until 2016, and Obama is surging because he's well-versed in Republican tactics. The Money knows that Obama could have another Clinton Second Term that would revitalize the economy and is hoping that maybe they can put another Dubya into office if they have four more years to pick on Obama. Not to mention it gives them another four years to hopefully win back a Base that is wanting more Palins.

Nothing about this election screams confidence for the Republicans. It all screams of petty desperation mixed with ignorance of how their party works.
 
2012-03-15 12:12:12 AM  
I've learned to never trust Republican math. They make a mean chili, but really need to work on the math.
 
2012-03-15 12:13:13 AM  

meat0918: Somacandra: RminusQ: Santorum is playing to be the nominee next time.

That worked so well for Huckabee.

Huckabee came in third, not second (new window) in 2008. Only seconds get the carpet rolled out for them next time. Thirds don't get jack. If Santorum comes in second, he'll be looked at for the next nominating cycle if he wants it.

Looked at and discarded, unless they really think another doubling down on the derp will win them anything.


Santorum is a fluke. If he thought he could really win, he would have been in this with more ground people, more money, and better preparation. And if this time around fails for the Republicans, I don't think you'll see someone up there Derping away unless they've been trained and have their balls in the grip of the Money part of the party.

The only value the Base has to the Money is thoughtless votes over petty issues that aren't related to the economy. If the Base cannot fulfill that, expect the rich to go over to the Democrats instead of wasting their times with an unruly rabble of retards chanting talking points that have nothing to do with reality.
 
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