ImpendingCynic: GAT_00: God no. Gingrich isn't really in the race.

CNN now shows Gingrich ahead of Santorum in MS.

Really? 538 is still at 57% in, Santorum up by 2000 votes.

thoughtpol: sorry if this is repetitive - are any of the states up tonight winner-take-all? if so, which ones?

Both are proportional.

Reverend J: Just called 'bama for the frothmister

/haha

And the right is whining that Alexandra Pelosi's documentary is inaccurate. Puh-lease.

ODDwhun: thoughtpol: sorry if this is repetitive - are any of the states up tonight winner-take-all? if so, which ones?

Both are proportional.

daaaaaaaamn it. oh well. thanks.

GAT_00: Most of the big areas seem to be in for Mississippi too. Santorum might take both.

You can clench Rick. No surge now. Take it.

What's amazing is that a couple months ago, Gingrich being in (and staying in) the race was seen as his incredible ego taking over to the detriment of the party... whereas now, it's basically an enormous favor to the party (since Gingrich dropping out is basically the only way to have any remotely serious chance for Santorum to win)

In fact, in the end Gingrich not dropping out two months ago may be the only reason Romney is going to win the primary, which is mind-boggling.

GAT_00: ImpendingCynic: GAT_00: God no. Gingrich isn't really in the race.

CNN now shows Gingrich ahead of Santorum in MS.

Really? 538 is still at 57% in, Santorum up by 2000 votes.

CNN's website still shows Santorum ahead there... 79% in.

Is the channel ahead of the website?

Gdiguy: (since Gingrich dropping out is basically the only way to have any remotely serious chance for Santorum to win)

If Gingrich drops and stops stealing the anti-Romney vote, Santorum has a legitimate shot at running the table.

GAT_00: Sabyen91: Wait, I haven't paid any attention tonight but I thought this was a race between Gingrich and Romney with Santorum in distant third? Santorum is doing well?? Oh, this is better than I could have imagined.

God no. Gingrich isn't really in the race. He's won two states, Santorum has won 10 or so.

No, I thought in these two well respected states it was a Gingrich-Romney horserace based on limited polling. If Gingrich won these two it would be over. I love that frothy is winning them.

Leave the race, Newty. Unless you are being paid by RMoney to torpedo the far right...hmm, I suggest this will be a story line among right wing sites if Newt doesn't pull out.

They are calling Alabama for Santorum. Shine on, you crazy half-wits!

Whatever cretin on Romney's staff signed off on him spending so much money and time in these two states should be fired. He's farking headed to a 3rd place finish in 'bama. Not to mention the optics of being so visible there for the past week, then being unavailable for cameras tonight because of 'travel issues.' Way to man up for what supporters you have, shiathead!

Clowns are a Ten: GAT_00: ImpendingCynic: GAT_00: God no. Gingrich isn't really in the race.

CNN now shows Gingrich ahead of Santorum in MS.

Really? 538 is still at 57% in, Santorum up by 2000 votes.

CNN's website still shows Santorum ahead there... 79% in.

Is the channel ahead of the website?

Fark, I don't watch CNN. But yeah, their results are way ahead of NYT.

GAT_00: Clowns are a Ten: GAT_00: ImpendingCynic: GAT_00: God no. Gingrich isn't really in the race.

CNN now shows Gingrich ahead of Santorum in MS.

Really? 538 is still at 57% in, Santorum up by 2000 votes.

CNN's website still shows Santorum ahead there... 79% in.

Is the channel ahead of the website?

Fark, I don't watch CNN. But yeah, their results are way ahead of NYT.

CNN updated the map again, Santorum by around 1900.

I'm rooting for Newt to win Mississippi.

I just got home so I have yet to see the results on a district-by-district basis.

GAT_00: Gdiguy: (since Gingrich dropping out is basically the only way to have any remotely serious chance for Santorum to win)

If Gingrich drops and stops stealing the anti-Romney vote, Santorum has a legitimate shot at running the table.

Eh I agree with Nate's article at 538 from about a week ago that it's already too late for that - there are too many states like CA/NY left that are both large enough, and moderate enough, that Santorum can't beat Romney by enough to actually seriously compete in terms of delegates.

He would almost certainly win the rest of the south & midwest by double-digits (at least), but it would require something more drastic happening to win in the Northeast/West coast, and I don't think that'll be enough to force serious consideration of a brokered convention or something of that nature.

I, for one, am putting my faith in Santorum (new window)

The Bestest: It's still significant. If Santorum wins both AL and MS, it may -finally- prove to Gingrich that he sucks ass and should drop out.

Can you even imagine Romney's reaction (assuming he's programmed for one) if Gingrich were to drop out tomorrow and stop splitting the not-Romney vote with Santorum?

Will Gingrich drop out regardless of how tonight goes? I doubt it. But man it would be great.

If Newt drops out, his supporters will go to Santorum. If it's a Romney/Santorum horserace all the way to the convention, with neither person getting to 1149......it's going to be glorious, my friends. Glorious.

2wolves: Nate Silver's polling did not make the grade today.

... He doesn't do polling. However, his projections are based on polls. So he failed through inaccurate information.

/White Knighting Silver.
//Silver Knight?

I agree with the Farker earlieron Gingrich: he wants to be the key broker at the convention. Ideally, he wanted the presidency, but being the decive figure at the convention is a good way to get the VP or another position of power from the party.

Meanwhile, in Alabama ...

Clowns are a Ten: CNN updated the map again, Santorum by around 1900.

Yeah. That's a Santorum win in both states. That's huge, really. If Gingrich took either, he'd have legitimate reasons to stay in. If he stays in past tomorrow, it's almost like Romney is paying him to so he can win.

Gdiguy: Eh I agree with Nate's article at 538 from about a week ago that it's already too late for that - there are too many states like CA/NY left that are both large enough, and moderate enough, that Santorum can't beat Romney by enough to actually seriously compete in terms of delegates.

Yeah, but Santorum has momentum now, and there's plenty of good states for him left. It's not an impossible scenario, just unlikely. If Santorum gets a state that is moderate at all, then it's game over for Romney

If nothing else, it forces this thing to go wire to wire.

dokool: Anyone else frustrated by how the media portrays these election-night spectacles as horse-races? Candidates can't "catch up" or "make up ground" because all the votes have already been cast. We're just waiting for the numbers to be reported.

I can't stand how the media makes "winning" in these proportional states out to be a big deal. It's only a big deal because the media accepts that bs narrative.

/Essentially all three of the votes tonight are a three way tie.

"There's nothing more uncomfortable for Rick Santorum than to be in a three-way with two men."
"Two very handsome men."
"No, one handsome man."
"Which one?"
"Mitt Romney's the handsome one."
"Taste. I'm no expert"

Lulz on MSNBC

Oh, come on now, Santorum is just creaming everyone in Alabama. Up 15k.

Clowns are a Ten: 2wolves: Nate Silver's polling did not make the grade today.

... He doesn't do polling. However, his projections are based on polls. So he failed through inaccurate information.

/White Knighting Silver.
//Silver Knight?

Yeah, and polling apparently sucked.

Skimming freep (i know) it seems they are rabid for Gingrich.

Also interesting tidbit: Romney might get third in both states.

Gdiguy: Eh I agree with Nate's article at 538 from about a week ago that it's already too late for that - there are too many states like CA/NY left that are both large enough, and moderate enough, that Santorum can't beat Romney by enough to actually seriously compete in terms of delegates.

He would almost certainly win the rest of the south & midwest by double-digits (at least), but it would require something more drastic happening to win in the Northeast/West coast, and I don't think that'll be enough to force serious consideration of a brokered convention or something of that nature.

He won't run the table, but if Gingrich drops, you can take it to the bank Romney won't have the required number of delegates heading into the Convention. Not only will Santorum pick up most of the votes that would have been headed to Gingrich, he'll pick up some more fund raising as well.

This convetion is going to be brokered...and no matter which candidate emerges one side of the GOP is going to be very pissed off in the general election. Not even a Unity ticket with Romney and Santorum on there in either order will save them.

Lawrence O'Donnell is calling this a three-way, Rachel Maddow commented "Well, night time is the right time for Santorum."

dletter: GAT_00: Gdiguy: (since Gingrich dropping out is basically the only way to have any remotely serious chance for Santorum to win)

If Gingrich drops and stops stealing the anti-Romney vote, Santorum has a legitimate shot at running the table.

Well, in "Super New England Tuesday" in mid/late April, Romney should do over 50% in every state except PA. So, that will be big for Romney to pad the lead.

But, if Newt can be convinced to drop out, Santorum is almost certain to win Wisconsin and Illinois. Missouri caucuses should go Santorum. Maryland & D.C. will probably go Romney the same day as Wisconsin, but, Wisconsin will get the most attention. Santorum also gets a bit screwed by not being on the Indiana ballot in early May, since he'd been very competitive here, especially with no Gingrich.

Santorum is on the Indiana ballot.

Link (new window)

On MSNBC - Did Sarah Palin trap Steve Schmidt in a janitor's closet with one bare lightbulb?