First, it's 2046, not 2040, and second, for this to happen, the Dow would need an annualized return of 6.45% per year between now and then. Not much of a stretch.

*Past performance does not guarantee future returns.

Principal Clarinet: RumsfeldsReplacement: First, it's 2046, not 2040, and second, for this to happen, the Dow would need an annualized return of 6.45% per year between now and then. Not much of a stretch.

The original prediction was 116,200 in 2040. After future chart projections, being off by only 6 years is still pretty close.

You're right. In that case, we'd need a little less than 8% per year, which again, is not far-fetched at all.

That's all good. Only problem is a gallon of milk will cost $20 and a trip to the doctor will start in four figures.

MugzyBrown: If we keep inflating the currency, it will probably happen before 2046


Yup. Since the late '90s the dollar has lost over 75% of its value against gold.

Inflation, how the fark does it work.

we can get a brazillion % gain if we just print enough money

pdieten: That's all good. Only problem is a gallon of milk will cost $20 and a trip to the doctor will start in four figures.

I'm okay with that. Assuming inflation stays steady (averaging about 3% a year in the last few decades) you'd still be netting a 3.75% return. Give me a few million bucks to invest, and I'll retire and open up some jobs for the poor folk.

Bold 1995 prediction of Dow hitting 116,200 by 2040 is actually still on track to being correct

So is this prediction...

Our good friends the Israelis are going to help it get there. Isn't that nice. So the Fed bails out foreign banks and they buy US stocks. We are all one big happy family, yes?


Bank of Israel starts investing in US stocks
(new window)

"The Bank of Israel today began investing $1-1.5 billion of its $77 billion in foreign currency reserves in US stocks."

Warrior Monk: pdieten: That's all good. Only problem is a gallon of milk will cost $20 and a trip to the doctor will start in four figures.

I'm okay with that. Assuming inflation stays steady (averaging about 3% a year in the last few decades) you'd still be netting a 3.75% return. Give me a few million bucks to invest, and I'll retire and open up some jobs for the poor folk.



"Did you know that disco record sales were up four hundred percent for the year ending 1976? If these trends continue . . . a-y-y-y."

/Make you a deal: if you're correct you can tell me "I told you so" and I'll buy you a beer. Until then, I get to call you a moran and you have to buy me a beer now.

namatad: meat0918: Inflation, how the fark does it work.

Link (new window)
clearly you dont understand how inflation works.

Link (new window)

out inflation rates have been low for the last decade or two.

I know it's low and has been. Hell, they were terrified we'd start a deflationary spiral and kill any hope of a timely recovery.

The ins and outs of inflation blow though, and it's never an easy fix.

MugzyBrown: Link (new window)

out inflation rates have been low for the last decade or two.

Erm not really. Only the re-configured version of the CPI has been low.

Real inflation is a lot worse. (new window)

Hey look, I constructed an index that only tracks those goods that have been rising in price and called it "real inflation" as opposed to "fake inflation" which looks at everything people buy. At least it's better than the shadowstats guy who takes "fake inflation" and just adds a number he pulled out of his arse.

Bad_Seed: MugzyBrown: Link (new window)

out inflation rates have been low for the last decade or two.

Erm not really. Only the re-configured version of the CPI has been low.

Real inflation is a lot worse. (new window)

Hey look, I constructed an index that only tracks those goods that have been rising in price and called it "real inflation" as opposed to "fake inflation" which looks at everything people buy. At least it's better than the shadowstats guy who takes "fake inflation" and just adds a number he pulled out of his arse.

I was going to point out the same thing:

FTFA:"Admittedly, the purchases that the EPI tracks make up slightly less than 40 percent of the average household budget. "

It is still a measure but to say this figure is better than CPI is subjective

MugzyBrown: Link (new window)

out inflation rates have been low for the last decade or two.

Erm not really. Only the re-configured version of the CPI has been low.

Real inflation is a lot worse. (new window)

I'd trust this indicator a lot more than that think tank, and it tracks fairly closely with the CPI number. Unfortunately, it has been tracking since 2008.



Link (new window)

Treygreen13: Krieghund: namatad: meat0918: Inflation, how the fark does it work.

Link (new window)
clearly you dont understand how inflation works.


It's exchanges like this that keep me coming back to the business tab.

I must confess a sick pleasure in exchanges like this as well.

My favorite was the 'ol "WE'RE IN A RECESSION" exchange.

"We're in a recession."
"No, we're not."
"Yes we are, look at how expensive gas is!"
"That's not what makes a recession."
"Sure, a recession isn't exactly a thing, it's a state of overall wellness."
"No, a recession is an exact thing. There's a definition and everything. And we have not yet hit that point."
"...but-but-but-but Democrats/Republicans!"

Cue the liberal/conservative political commentator: "Tell the struggling working class family that we're not in a recession. Tell the unemployed steel worker who hasn't found work in 9 months that we're not in a recession. Tell the guy who wakes up at 3:30am every morning to drive 150 miles to the only job he can find that we're not in a recession. This is how out of touch the current administration is-- to boldly assure everyone the recession is over when our hardest working citizens are struggling more than ever."

Or my favorite: "well it's still a recession for me"

balki1867: Cue the liberal/conservative political commentator: "Tell the struggling working class family that we're not in a recession. Tell the unemployed steel worker who hasn't found work in 9 months that we're not in a recession. Tell the guy who wakes up at 3:30am every morning to drive 150 miles to the only job he can find that we're not in a recession. This is how out of touch the current administration is-- to boldly assure everyone the recession is over when our hardest working citizens are struggling more than ever."

Are you denying that people are having a hard time out there you heartless bastag? People like you make me want to puke. We are still in a recession!

The burger joint by my house raised the price of a burger from $3.99 to 4.29 overnight. That's a one day increase of 7.5% or an annual rate of 2,737%. See, CPI is a lie. Inflation is really closer to 3000%.


\sarcasm off

I, personally, want to see the market totally crash and basically everyone loses their money. Now, that will be funny to watch.

Not much of a stretch.

THATS THE POINT!!!

Why is it that we only see the gains when a Democrat is in office?

If I keep aging at this rate, I'll be 6,000 years older in 6,000 years.

Saiga410: We are still in a recession!

Is this your definition of a recession?

Hard to believe I know, but just because the economy is growing doesn't mean everybody gets a job again at the same time.

I don't know why people have such a hard time believing that the markets will go up many, many thousands of points over significant periods of time. In theory, if the economy is doing well, we're creating more wealth and more people will invest. Add inflation.

If you told people in 1980 the DOW would be over 10,000 in thirty years they'd have called you nuts. I lot of people would have called you nuts if you said it will still be flirting with 1000. But it's not really that surprising. The apparent steepness of the number isn't what concerns me, it's the notion that anybody thinks they know when it will get that steep. I have no problem believing that it will happen assuming the economy continues growing and that 2040 is a peak year for economic growth rather than a period of correction or even recession.

namatad: meat0918: Inflation, how the fark does it work.



out inflation rates have been low for the last decade or two.

It's cute that you believe the CPI numbers.

link 1

link 2

link 3

72 divided by 6.45 is 11.16...

2046 - 2012 is 34 years....

so thats three doublings in consumption... an example: currently the world consumes 80 million barrels of oil per day, so consumption will be 640 million barrels per day.


Yeah, I actually think we can achieve this.

Trolljegeren: It's cute that you believe the CPI numbers.

You posted a link to shadowstats.com. Every argument you ever made or ever will is invalid.

namatad: well
she is a TROLL
he NAME is TROLL ...
so we can pretty much ignore everything that she ever says ...

In my defense, I posted that within 20 minutes of getting out of bed. I hadn't even had my fourth cup of coffee yet....

RumsfeldsReplacement: First, it's 2046, not 2040, and second, for this to happen, the Dow would need an annualized return of 6.45% per year between now and then. Not much of a stretch.

Less than that if you account for inflation.

The combination of inflation over decades, the increasing population of the U.S. and the world, and increasing size of the economy means stock market indices are likely to trend up and up over the VERY long term.