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(The Hill)   New Gallup poll: If the election were held today, 50 percent of those polled would support Romney, versus 46 percent who would support Obama, but it all could change in the next two weeks if Romney and Santorum keep their mouths open   (thehill.com) divider line 205
    More: Interesting, President Obama, Gallup, Rick Santorum, Mitt Romney  
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1765 clicks; posted to Politics » on 23 Feb 2012 at 4:16 PM (2 years ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2012-02-23 05:28:52 PM

beta_plus: All polls that show Obama losing the election are run by evil Republican corporations who spin the numbers.

All polls that show Obama winning the election are run by objective statisticians and represent the pinnacle of the profession of statistical sampling.


This is actually true, whichever way you flip it - to the extent that you pay any attention to polls at all, it's much better to go with the aggregates than with any of the individual polls. The assorted biases and methodological variants tend to cancel each other out.
 
2012-02-23 05:31:53 PM

cameroncrazy1984: colon_pow: Doc Daneeka: Saying that Romney is up 4 pts on Obama, when they are in fact statistically-tied, is misleading and inaccurate. And in fact is conservative spin.

how dense can you be, Doc? The poll results are the poll results. it's not misleading or inaccurate to give out the poll results.

quit cryin or i'll slap ya

It is misleading when that "lead" is within the margin of error for that particular poll.


so you're saying that the following is misleading:

If the election were held Thursday, 50 percent said they would support Romney, versus 46 percent who would support Obama, according to Gallup.
 
2012-02-23 05:32:12 PM
Bloody William
So Romney and Santorum are holding their own against Obama, when they've been in the spotlight for months and Obama hasn't actually started campaigning or addressing them?

Yeah, that's a terrible sign.


As others have said, it's also an outlier. I find it hard to believe that Obama has turned a 6 to 8 point lead into a 4 point deficit in the last couple weeks. It's not like there's been bad news for him and good news for Romney and Santorum.
 
Ant
2012-02-23 05:32:14 PM

Antimatter: Yeah, not buying that poll as accurate. The GOP's candidates are a clown show, full of theocrats, totalitarians, fascists, cooperate whores, anti-education, and anti-women's rights.

Electing any of them would be a disaster on an epic scale.


You're saying that something bad cannot happen because it would be bad?
 
2012-02-23 05:33:04 PM

cameroncrazy1984: tenpoundsofcheese: cameroncrazy1984: colon_pow: Doc Daneeka: Saying that Romney is up 4 pts on Obama, when they are in fact statistically-tied, is misleading and inaccurate. And in fact is conservative spin.

how dense can you be, Doc? The poll results are the poll results. it's not misleading or inaccurate to give out the poll results.

quit cryin or i'll slap ya

It is misleading when that "lead" is within the margin of error for that particular poll.

why? Do you know what the Margin of Error means and when you can and can't use it to describe a statistical tie? The author obviously didn't.

So, in your and wikipedia's minds, it can only be a statistical tie if the margin of error is 4 points and the lead is 3 points? That makes no logical sense.


somehow I think statisticians know more about this than you or some writer does. So I will go with what they write. Besides, you clearly didn't understand wiki.

But try thinking for a second. Do you think there is any difference between a 48:48 result and a 50:46 result if both polls had a margin of error of 4 points?
 
2012-02-23 05:35:32 PM

tenpoundsofcheese: What is more interesting is that when 0bama is down, the press uses the statistical tie (which is wrong), but when he is leading, they don't.


You mean like TFA? Oh wait.
 
2012-02-23 05:36:54 PM

tenpoundsofcheese: Do you think there is any difference between a 48:48 result and a 50:46 result if both polls had a margin of error of 4 points?


We are 95% sure:

Romney is between 44% and 52%
Obama is between 44% and 52%

vs

Romney is between 46% and 54%
Obama is between 42% and 50%

Sure these are different but if you don't conclude the same thing for both, you're a farking moran.
 
Ant
2012-02-23 05:38:14 PM

Dusk-You-n-Me: Q12 If the candidates for President this year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Rick
Santorum, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama................................................ 49%
Rick Santorum................................................ 44%
Undecided....................................................... 6%


What the fark is wrong with people!?! 44% is way too high!
 
2012-02-23 05:41:35 PM

Mrtraveler01: tenpoundsofcheese: What is more interesting is that when 0bama is down, the press uses the statistical tie (which is wrong), but when he is leading, they don't.

Is that because his lead is outside of the margin of error like in these Rasmussen polls?

Link


Nope. 0bama has not always had a lead outside of the margin of error.
 
2012-02-23 05:43:01 PM

Cytokine Storm: From the comments:

Osama Obama Biden (Bi)n La(den)
One coincidence? Two coincidences?
The odds of the president's and vice president's last names combined having the same 9 consecutive letters as the name of the most wanted terrorist is over 5 trillion to 1.

With the media in on the last election, it's why Sarah Palin was added to the McCain ticket. They had no intention of winning. Why do you think Republicans gained so many seats in the last midterm? Sarah and McCain were part of a coup. Obama was turned after he won the election to take down those who make up the "organized community" that he spoke about. The link in my name exposes the biggest cover up in history.

Link (new window)

Awesome.


wtfamireading.jpg
 
2012-02-23 05:45:17 PM

tenpoundsofcheese: Mrtraveler01: tenpoundsofcheese: What is more interesting is that when 0bama is down, the press uses the statistical tie (which is wrong), but when he is leading, they don't.

Is that because his lead is outside of the margin of error like in these Rasmussen polls?

Link

Nope. 0bama has not always had a lead outside of the margin of error.


How much of a cheapass do you have to be to not get your O key fixed?
 
2012-02-23 05:45:34 PM
Here's my prediction: Obama wins the popular vote but loses in the electoral college. The state breakdown is basically the same as 2000 and 2004.
 
2012-02-23 05:47:25 PM

Mrtraveler01: tenpoundsofcheese: Mrtraveler01: tenpoundsofcheese: What is more interesting is that when 0bama is down, the press uses the statistical tie (which is wrong), but when he is leading, they don't.

Is that because his lead is outside of the margin of error like in these Rasmussen polls?

Link

Nope. 0bama has not always had a lead outside of the margin of error.

How much of a cheapass do you have to be to not get your O key fixed?


THIS made me LOL. Office mates giving me the stink eye.
 
2012-02-23 05:48:27 PM

Glockenspiel Hero: Major Israeli strike on Iran


you just know netanyahu has been coordinating with romney on this.
 
2012-02-23 05:50:51 PM
 
2012-02-23 05:55:34 PM

colon_pow: starting to smell like jimmy carter around here..


Maybe it's your upper lip.
 
2012-02-23 05:55:38 PM
I see the polls are starting to reflect the opinions of the knuckledragging mouthbreathers who think Obama sets the price of gas.
 
2012-02-23 06:00:55 PM
 
2012-02-23 06:03:09 PM

Overfiend: For all of you who are so positive Obama will win:

What are you going to do if Romney is elected president?


Spend four years mocking Romney? And be happy I'm too old to be drafted.
 
2012-02-23 06:07:23 PM

Bloody William: So Romney and Santorum are holding their own against Obama, when they've been in the spotlight for months and Obama hasn't actually started campaigning or addressing them?

Yeah, that's a terrible sign.


In any event, I've said it before and I'll say it again. Gallup is not a credible pollster. It routinely releases polls which "just happen" to support the favored right wing narrative. That's because George Gallup Jr. was an evangelical who committed to turning the company a "ministry" instead of faithfully and accurately reporting public opinion. The real impetus for releasing these polls, which have no doubt been massaged, is to reinforce the narrative that Romney is the most electable candidate. The GOP elites desperately want this nomination process sewn up, and they want Mitt to be the guy.

Other recent polls consistently show Obama leading both Romney and Santorum.

Link (new window)
 
2012-02-23 06:08:29 PM
Boy, there sure are a lot of statisticals going on in here.

/Let's not forget about that old Bradley Effect either. Remember how that sunk 0ZER0bama0samaBinLyin last time!!!!
 
2012-02-23 06:08:56 PM
Meh. Individual polls are fraught with volatility. It's like looking at the Dow Industrial Average for only one day and trying to determine the state of the economy.

The better thing to look at is every poll result out there and then average them out, and then try to discern a trend.
 
2012-02-23 06:09:27 PM

thornhill: Here's my prediction: Obama wins the popular vote but loses in the electoral college. The state breakdown is basically the same as 2000 and 2004.


I'll take that bet. Obama would have won the Electoral College in 2008 with just the states where he received over 60% of the vote. People forget just how big a blowout that election was.

A lot can change between now and November, but barring anything monumental, I think Fartbongo's in a good place.
 
2012-02-23 06:12:02 PM

Glockenspiel Hero: Seriously, WTF WRT this poll?

Rasmussen has Obama up by close to 10 right now. That's Rasmussen, your pollster of choice if you want to know what old white guys are thinking. TPM poll average is below

[dailydish.typepad.com image 550x329]



This. Gallup is completely full of sh*t, and trying to influence the GOP primary narrative.

WAKE UP SHEEPLE!!!!
 
2012-02-23 06:12:10 PM

FirstNationalBastard: Overfiend: For all of you who are so positive Obama will win:

What are you going to do if Romney is elected president?

Laugh as America continues its descent into a third world hell governed by religious fanatics who make the Taliban look reasonable.

Laughter is really all you can do when people are so damned intent on voting to make themselves into second class citizens and slaves.


I really, really consider finding a universal field so I can GTFO if I have to some days...

/I'm female.
 
2012-02-23 06:12:37 PM

Ant: Dusk-You-n-Me: Q12 If the candidates for President this year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Rick
Santorum, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama................................................ 49%
Rick Santorum................................................ 44%
Undecided....................................................... 6%

What the fark is wrong with people!?! 44% is way too high!


I think a lot of people are still not paying any attention yet. They don't know about Latin for a-hole, Spreading Santorum, singing to dead fetuses, banning condoms, Satan attacking America, etc. Yet. But they will before election day.
 
2012-02-23 06:12:39 PM

the_geek: I seriously don't get the FUD about Romney. Policy-wise nothing scares me about him. What's the big concern, that he will waffle back and forth on principles based on what the electorate wants? OMGNOOOOOO!

/I only vote third party for POTUS so please don't take this as supporting Romney or Obama


Someone saying he would make an amendment to the constitution that would make abortion and many form of contraception murder, doesn't bother you?
 
2012-02-23 06:12:53 PM

FlashHarry: that's interesting, a new poll has obama up in 12 swing states over both romney and santorum.


The most recent Quinnipac poll had Obama leading in Virginia, home of the transvaginal ultrasound.
 
2012-02-23 06:13:57 PM

FlashHarry: that's interesting, a new poll has obama up in 12 swing states over both romney and santorum.


Wha? You mean there's growing evidence that Gallup's numbers are inconsistent with basically every other poll out there? And these numbers are released just in time to influence Tuesday's elections?

Imagine that.
 
2012-02-23 06:15:07 PM

Ant: Dusk-You-n-Me: Q12 If the candidates for President this year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Rick
Santorum, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama................................................ 49%
Rick Santorum................................................ 44%
Undecided....................................................... 6%

What the fark is wrong with people!?! 44% is way too high!


Want to really weep for the republic, check out what's on the front page of gallup.com

sas-origin.onstreammedia.com
 
2012-02-23 06:17:29 PM

Jesterling: Ant: Dusk-You-n-Me: Q12 If the candidates for President this year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Rick
Santorum, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama................................................ 49%
Rick Santorum................................................ 44%
Undecided....................................................... 6%

What the fark is wrong with people!?! 44% is way too high!

Want to really weep for the republic, check out what's on the front page of gallup.com

[sas-origin.onstreammedia.com image 470x229]


So far, numerous other polls have been posted showing Obama in the lead. Gallup is giving bogus figures at a critical moment for maximum electoral impact.
 
2012-02-23 06:20:21 PM

bugontherug: So far, numerous other polls have been posted showing Obama in the lead. Gallup is giving bogus figures at a critical moment for maximum electoral impact.


Eh. I don't think Gallup is giving bogus figures at all. They just released a number that is a statistical outlier. That kind of stuff happens in polling, you never know who the people you reach are going to be. Bet you their next poll will show a completely different result.
 
2012-02-23 06:23:04 PM
I know I'm not the first to point it out, but this poll is quite apparently inaccurate.
 
2012-02-23 06:24:48 PM

RexTalionis: bugontherug: So far, numerous other polls have been posted showing Obama in the lead. Gallup is giving bogus figures at a critical moment for maximum electoral impact.

Eh. I don't think Gallup is giving bogus figures at all. They just released a number that is a statistical outlier. That kind of stuff happens in polling, you never know who the people you reach are going to be. Bet you their next poll will show a completely different result.


"Bogus" might have been too strong a word. Earlier I used "massaged." I don't think Gallup is likely to release completely false polling data, since if they get caught, their reputation is at stake. I absolutely think Gallup would headline an outlier at a critical moment to reinforce a preferred Republican narrative. I've seen it happen too many times now for it to be coincidence. If they're caught, they just give some rationalization for why they picked those numbers over the more realistic numbers.

This is their presidential daily tracking poll. Over the course of the next week or so, its numbers will gradually adjust themselves to comport with what every other poll is saying.
 
2012-02-23 06:25:03 PM

thamike: colon_pow: starting to smell like jimmy carter around here..

Maybe it's your upper lip.


no, that smells like your mom.
 
2012-02-23 06:27:26 PM

Overfiend: For all of you who are so positive Obama will win:

What are you going to do if Romney is elected president?


Drink. A lot.
 
2012-02-23 06:34:20 PM
Inconceivable. For all his blundering, illegal wars and shredding of the Constitution there is no way W will win another term.

This poll is wrong.
 
2012-02-23 06:35:28 PM
It may be small, but President Barack Obama has a lead over both Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum in 12 swing states, according to a new Purple Strategies poll. "These results may bring into question Mitt Romney's continued claim of electability," the pollsters analyzed. In total, when hypothetically matched against the president, Romney loses, 47 percent to 43 percent, while Obama leads Santorum only 46 percent to 44 percent.

Link (new window)

From the February 2012 Purple Poll (new window, .pdf)

Never heard of that one. Interesting.
 
2012-02-23 06:42:03 PM

RexTalionis: bugontherug: So far, numerous other polls have been posted showing Obama in the lead. Gallup is giving bogus figures at a critical moment for maximum electoral impact.

Eh. I don't think Gallup is giving bogus figures at all. They just released a number that is a statistical outlier. That kind of stuff happens in polling, you never know who the people you reach are going to be. Bet you their next poll will show a completely different result.


However I do believe gallups number have been getting more and more wonky. I don't believe they are fudging the number but I suspect that maybe their polling methodology is getting out of whack for some reason. Maybe they are doing land lines or something that is making them off.

And it's not just this. It seems to me like they have been more and more an outlier.
 
2012-02-23 06:44:29 PM

Corvus: However I do believe gallups number have been getting more and more wonky. I don't believe they are fudging the number but I suspect that maybe their polling methodology is getting out of whack for some reason. Maybe they are doing land lines or something that is making them off.


Their methodology is 600 landline calls and 400 random cell-phone calls per 1000 calls.
 
2012-02-23 06:49:14 PM
And just in time to boost the 'Romney is the only electable candidate' argument. What a coinky-dink.
 
2012-02-23 07:13:28 PM

Overfiend: For all of you who are so positive Obama will win:

What are you going to do if Romney is elected president?


Move to Canada in protest. Same as they did for Bush, twice.
 
2012-02-23 07:15:50 PM

watson.t.hamster: Overfiend: For all of you who are so positive Obama will win:

What are you going to do if Romney is elected president?

Move to Canada in protest. Same as they did for Bush, twice.


I'm still waiting for Rush Limbaugh to move to Costa Rica like he said he would if we passed Obamacare.

What a whimp.
 
2012-02-23 07:20:05 PM
At the end of the day ... the Republicans simply are not going to beat President Obama. It's Congress that's up in the air. It would be interesting to see if the Republican can hold the House; but the real contest is going to be seeing if the Democrats lose the Senate. I mean, who cares about the White House right now? But with the Republicans in control of both houses of Congress and President Obama in control of the veto pen - nothing - will be done in the United States for the next 4 years.

Remember 2006 - 2008? Forget that. No thank you.
 
2012-02-23 07:35:30 PM
"Registered voters" is not the same as "likely voters".
 
2012-02-23 07:41:03 PM
oh boy, tweetle dumber or tweetle dumberer

usa usa usa!

it's too bad that ron paul can't get any votes even though more people are voting for him...

meh, this is why i hate politics
 
2012-02-23 07:52:49 PM

colon_pow: thamike: colon_pow: starting to smell like jimmy carter around here..

Maybe it's your upper lip.

no, that smells like your mom.


At least you admit it.
 
2012-02-23 08:17:40 PM

Bunnyhat: And if the presidential race was decided by a pure popular vote then I guess that would mean something.

Or if this poll wasn't the an outlier to a dozen others showing Obama in the lead.


Because we all know that it shouldn't be, right?
 
2012-02-23 08:31:10 PM

Overfiend: For all of you who are so positive Obama will win:

What are you going to do if Romney is elected president?


That would assume Romney is as consistent as day and night.

Sadly for you, he isn't; and once that flaw is exposed over and over, he won't be President.
 
2012-02-23 08:31:11 PM
Regardless of who they say is winning, polls should be considered garbage. I fark with them all the time.
 
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