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(The Hill)   New Gallup poll: If the election were held today, 50 percent of those polled would support Romney, versus 46 percent who would support Obama, but it all could change in the next two weeks if Romney and Santorum keep their mouths open   (thehill.com) divider line 205
    More: Interesting, President Obama, Gallup, Rick Santorum, Mitt Romney  
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1764 clicks; posted to Politics » on 23 Feb 2012 at 4:16 PM (2 years ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2012-02-23 04:46:29 PM
I seriously don't get the FUD about Romney. Policy-wise nothing scares me about him. What's the big concern, that he will waffle back and forth on principles based on what the electorate wants? OMGNOOOOOO!

/I only vote third party for POTUS so please don't take this as supporting Romney or Obama
 
2012-02-23 04:47:50 PM

Overfiend: For all of you who are so positive Obama will win:

What are you going to do if Romney is elected president?


Start whinging about "wanting my country back" without really saying what that means. Hold forth with vague, weasely threats of violence such as "second-amendment solutions" without having the courage to back them up. Call for senators to use anonymous holds and filibusters to shut down every executive branch responsibility. Attempt to sabotage the economy in order to make the president look bad.

/Did I get that right? Was that the right answer?
 
2012-02-23 04:48:14 PM

colon_pow: Doc Daneeka: TFA Headline: Gallup: Romney up by four on Obama

TFA: "The poll has a 4 percent margin of error, so the results mean Obama is statistically tied with both candidates."

TFA headline if it were honest: Gallup: Romney statistically tied with Obama

so it's not enough to give the poll results and margin of error?
they have to do the math too?
and give a little liberal spin while they're at it?

ok.


It's not liberal spin. Saying that they are statistically-tied is fact, and is the most accurate way of summarizing the poll results.

Saying that Romney is up 4 pts on Obama, when they are in fact statistically-tied, is misleading and inaccurate. And in fact is conservative spin.
 
2012-02-23 04:48:16 PM
This is bad news for Romney and Santorum
 
2012-02-23 04:51:07 PM

grotto_man: What's truly funny is hearing liberals complain about conservative alarmism over Obama, then come out with gems like these:

[my comment listed]


I was being facetious. In reality, there's no way President Romney wouldn't start a nuclear war with Iran or drive the country's economy into the third world.
 
2012-02-23 04:51:21 PM

the_geek: I seriously don't get the FUD about Romney. Policy-wise nothing scares me about him.


You might want to take a look at his tax plan. And his thoughts on increasing military spending. Then figure out how he'll manage to balance the budget like he claims.
 
2012-02-23 04:51:34 PM

phritz: Overfiend: For all of you who are so positive Obama will win:

What are you going to do if Romney is elected president?

Start whinging about "wanting my country back" without really saying what that means. Hold forth with vague, weasely threats of violence such as "second-amendment solutions" without having the courage to back them up. Call for senators to use anonymous holds and filibusters to shut down every executive branch responsibility. Attempt to sabotage the economy in order to make the president look bad.

/Did I get that right? Was that the right answer?


No, you're just a dirty traitorous liberal if you did any of those things.

/Did I do that right?
 
2012-02-23 04:52:10 PM

Le Grand Inquisitor: Luneward: Ok, people are stupid. We get it.

Though considering Obama has yet to even start campaigning this year, it doesn't take Nostradamus to predict that the Republican candidate is going to get slaughtered. The senate and house races will be interesting to watch, though.

The campaigner-in-chief has been running for reelection since waking up after the '08 election. Seriously everything that guy does is some publicity shoot to make himself look engaged in solving the issues. But instead he just likes making catchy slogans and smiling and hoping nobody actually looks at his non-existence record from the last 4 years


his non-existence record that is destroying America?
 
2012-02-23 04:53:35 PM

grotto_man: What's truly funny is hearing liberals complain about conservative alarmism over Obama, then come out with gems like these:


Consider that Obama has never said "I wish to take your guns," and yet that's a primary piece of alarmism.

Now, several of these candidates have said specifically "I will attack Iran," and tell me that's the same level of alarmism.
 
2012-02-23 04:55:08 PM

grotto_man: What's truly funny is hearing liberals complain about conservative alarmism over Obama, then come out with gems like these:

FirstNationalBastard

What are you going to do if Romney is elected president?

Laugh as America continues its descent into a third world hell governed by religious fanatics who make the Taliban look reasonable.

Laughter is really all you can do when people are so damned intent on voting to make themselves into second class citizens and slaves.

Serious Black

Hope that looking at him forces his quantum political superposition to settle on a position that doesn't drive the country into a nuclear war or an economic collapse worse than the Great Depression.

Philip Francis Queeg

Suffer, the same as every other American who isn't wealthy.

and most of all this:

you are a puppet

It smells more like the Shah of Iran to me. But dont worry, Obama will be deposed soon and we will have the "Ayatollah" in power. Then President Santorum will put a fatwa out on liberals, minorities and women, and finally us conservatives can have the country we've dreamed of, just a bunch of straight white men enjoying each others company. Gay marriage is a sin, but gay casual sex is just good old fashioned toe tappin frat boy pranks. Boys will be boys! Vote Republican.


lol. You consider it alarmism to say that republican men will all start having sex with each other if Santorum is elected.
 
2012-02-23 04:55:09 PM

grotto_man: What's truly funny is hearing liberals complain about conservative alarmism over Obama, then come out with gems like these:

FirstNationalBastard

What are you going to do if Romney is elected president?

Laugh as America continues its descent into a third world hell governed by religious fanatics who make the Taliban look reasonable.

Laughter is really all you can do when people are so damned intent on voting to make themselves into second class citizens and slaves.

Serious Black

Hope that looking at him forces his quantum political superposition to settle on a position that doesn't drive the country into a nuclear war or an economic collapse worse than the Great Depression.

Philip Francis Queeg

Suffer, the same as every other American who isn't wealthy.

and most of all this:

you are a puppet

It smells more like the Shah of Iran to me. But dont worry, Obama will be deposed soon and we will have the "Ayatollah" in power. Then President Santorum will put a fatwa out on liberals, minorities and women, and finally us conservatives can have the country we've dreamed of, just a bunch of straight white men enjoying each others company. Gay marriage is a sin, but gay casual sex is just good old fashioned toe tappin frat boy pranks. Boys will be boys! Vote Republican.


When Obama and the Democrats spend 4 years trying to destroy the country because their side didn't win, and decide that the most important issues involve raping women with plastic wands for Jesus's magic fetal cell souls, denying people rights because of their sexuality, and generally trying to take the country backward into the '50s... 1850s, that is, conservative outrage won't be mocked for being alarmist.

Conservative outrage is based on "ZOMG, HE COULD DO THIS! WHAT ABOUT JESUS!?!?" Liberal alarmism is based on fact that's right in front of everyone's faces.

Kinda like the whole God vs. Science debate... one side is clinging to what may be, the other side is looking at facts they can see.
 
2012-02-23 04:55:40 PM

the_geek: What's the big concern, that he will waffle back and forth on principles based on what the electorate wants? OMGNOOOOOO!


My concern is that a President Romney would be a rubber stamp for a much more conservative Congress.
 
2012-02-23 04:56:50 PM
RCPs list of all current Obama v Romney polls (new window). This Gallup one is the only recent one that has Romney winning (+4) with the next closest result having Romney losing by 2.
 
2012-02-23 04:58:36 PM

theknuckler_33: RCPs list of all current Obama v Romney polls (new window). This Gallup one is the only recent one that has Romney winning (+4) with the next closest result having Romney losing by 2.


Also note the relatively small sample size. It also polled Registered Voters which, from what Nate Silver says, are typically less reliable results than polls conducted with Likely Voters.
 
2012-02-23 04:59:47 PM

Bf+: I call bullshiat.
If not for anything else other than my desperate need to believe people aren't thatstupid.


Yeah, you don't live in the same reality as the rest of us, do you? I have complete faith in the fact that large portions of the country vote based off of emotional push-button issues and selective sound bites that appeal to their confirmation bias.
 
2012-02-23 05:00:05 PM
Where was this poll held? Texas?
 
2012-02-23 05:02:17 PM

colon_pow: Doc Daneeka: TFA Headline: Gallup: Romney up by four on Obama

TFA: "The poll has a 4 percent margin of error, so the results mean Obama is statistically tied with both candidates."

TFA headline if it were honest: Gallup: Romney statistically tied with Obama

so it's not enough to give the poll results and margin of error?
they have to do the math too?
and give a little liberal spin while they're at it?

ok.


So its cool that the ignore the facts to give it a rightist spin? Hypocrit, much?
 
2012-02-23 05:02:56 PM

theknuckler_33: RCPs list of all current Obama v Romney polls (new window). This Gallup one is the only recent one that has Romney winning (+4) with the next closest result having Romney losing by 2.


The only polls that matter are those that forecast results in the swing states.

A national poll only looks at general sentiment and is otherwise useless. As an example, Obama can be up 10 points in California, but down 1 point in each of 6 swing states. Overall looks good, but that is misleading.
 
2012-02-23 05:03:23 PM

Overfiend: What are you going to do if Romney is elected president?


Demand to see his birth certificate.
 
2012-02-23 05:03:47 PM
People need to understand Gallup. You call them and tell them what you want a poll to say, they design one to say it, profit.
 
2012-02-23 05:03:49 PM
This week's "please keep paying attention to the race, our advertisers need the exposure" story. This election was wrapped up months ago.
 
2012-02-23 05:04:23 PM

the_geek: I seriously don't get the FUD about Romney. Policy-wise nothing scares me about him. What's the big concern, that he will waffle back and forth on principles based on what the electorate wants? OMGNOOOOOO!


I think the problem is that, knowing he'll say anything and adopt any position to get elected, you're electing someone to the highest office without any idea what his real agenda is. I'm not too worried if he's a weak president who waffles on issues. I'm more concerned that he has an actual agenda that he has not made clear.
 
2012-02-23 05:05:44 PM

Doc Daneeka: colon_pow: Doc Daneeka: TFA Headline: Gallup: Romney up by four on Obama

TFA: "The poll has a 4 percent margin of error, so the results mean Obama is statistically tied with both candidates."

TFA headline if it were honest: Gallup: Romney statistically tied with Obama

so it's not enough to give the poll results and margin of error?
they have to do the math too?
and give a little liberal spin while they're at it?

ok.

It's not liberal spin. Saying that they are statistically-tied is fact, and is the most accurate way of summarizing the poll results.

.


No, that is not the most accurate way to summarize the poll results.

Being within a margin of error is not a statistical tie. There is a reason the numbers are reported 50/46 with a margin of error of 4 points, instead of 50/50 with a margin of error of 4 points.
 
2012-02-23 05:07:04 PM

Monkeyhouse Zendo: the_geek: I seriously don't get the FUD about Romney. Policy-wise nothing scares me about him. What's the big concern, that he will waffle back and forth on principles based on what the electorate wants? OMGNOOOOOO!

I think the problem is that, knowing he'll say anything and adopt any position to get elected, you're electing someone to the highest office without any idea what his real agenda is. I'm not too worried if he's a weak president who waffles on issues. I'm more concerned that he has an actual agenda that he has not made clear.


I think his real agenda is abundantly clear: Aiding large corporations and the wealthy at the expense of everyone else.
 
2012-02-23 05:07:21 PM

Overfiend: For all of you who are so positive Obama will win:

What are you going to do if Romney is elected president?


Same thing I'm going to do if the sun doesn't come up. I don't know what that is, because there's no reason to worry about it.
 
2012-02-23 05:07:59 PM

Headso: I know Obama isn't that great but geez, people, you really want another guy from the party that gave us W this soon?


It'll change when Obama actually starts his campaign. He has been mostly just sitting back, collecting campaign donations letting the GOP snipe at each other.
 
2012-02-23 05:09:36 PM

tenpoundsofcheese: No, that is not the most accurate way to summarize the poll results.

Being within a margin of error is not a statistical tie. There is a reason the numbers are reported 50/46 with a margin of error of 4 points, instead of 50/50 with a margin of error of 4 points.


Dude. You gonna get raped. It's gonna be ugly. We're talkin like two or three 40lb boxes of rape here.
 
2012-02-23 05:10:17 PM
Yep, not worried about a Romney presidency. He is, after all, a liberal repub. Nothing wrong with liberal repubs. The country could do a lot worse than four years of a liberal repub running things. I can live with a liberal repub for president.

Liberal. Liberal liberal liberal liberal liberal liberal liberal liberal liberal liberal liberal liberal liberal.
 
2012-02-23 05:11:05 PM

Doc Daneeka: Saying that Romney is up 4 pts on Obama, when they are in fact statistically-tied, is misleading and inaccurate. And in fact is conservative spin.


how dense can you be, Doc? The poll results are the poll results. it's not misleading or inaccurate to give out the poll results.

quit cryin or i'll slap ya
 
2012-02-23 05:11:25 PM

Philip Francis Queeg: I think his real agenda is abundantly clear: Aiding large corporations and the wealthy at the expense of everyone else.


I expect you're right but that's just very highly probable. I know I'm old fashioned but I like actual statements on policy.
 
2012-02-23 05:12:14 PM
What this poll doesn't take into account is that if current primary voting patterns are any indication, actual GOP turnout in the general election is going to be at record lows. If the Dems vote at regular levels, it will be an Obama landslide.
 
2012-02-23 05:12:23 PM

Bloody William: So Romney and Santorum are holding their own against Obama, when they've been in the spotlight attacking each other for months and Obama hasn't actually started campaigning or addressing them yet had a single negative ad thrown his way?

Yeah, that's a terrible sign.


Indeed.
 
2012-02-23 05:13:47 PM

lennavan: tenpoundsofcheese: No, that is not the most accurate way to summarize the poll results.

Being within a margin of error is not a statistical tie. There is a reason the numbers are reported 50/46 with a margin of error of 4 points, instead of 50/50 with a margin of error of 4 points.

Dude. You gonna get raped. It's gonna be ugly. We're talkin like two or three 40lb boxes of rape here.


Yeah, only because people don't know what margin of error means.

"The terms "statistical tie" and "statistical dead heat" are sometimes used to describe reported percentages that differ by less than a margin of error, but these terms can be misleading.[8][9] For one thing, the margin of error as generally calculated is applicable to an individual percentage and not the difference between percentages, so the difference between two percentage estimates may not be statistically significant even when they differ by more than the reported margin of error. The survey results also often provide strong information even when there is not a statistically significant difference."

What is more interesting is that when 0bama is down, the press uses the statistical tie (which is wrong), but when he is leading, they don't.
 
2012-02-23 05:14:00 PM

Philip Francis Queeg: Le Grand Inquisitor: Luneward: Ok, people are stupid. We get it.

Though considering Obama has yet to even start campaigning this year, it doesn't take Nostradamus to predict that the Republican candidate is going to get slaughtered. The senate and house races will be interesting to watch, though.

The campaigner-in-chief has been running for reelection since waking up after the '08 election. Seriously everything that guy does is some publicity shoot to make himself look engaged in solving the issues. But instead he just likes making catchy slogans and smiling and hoping nobody actually looks at his non-existence record from the last 4 years

So since his record is non-existent that means he's not a Socilaist Marxist Fascist radical Islamist tyrant, then?


I think that means he wants to be a Socilaist Marxist Fascist radical Islamist tyrant but he's really really bad at it because it interferes with his golf game.
 
2012-02-23 05:14:04 PM

Monkeyhouse Zendo: Philip Francis Queeg: I think his real agenda is abundantly clear: Aiding large corporations and the wealthy at the expense of everyone else.

I expect you're right but that's just very highly probable. I know I'm old fashioned but I like actual statements on policy.


You've seen his tax proposals, right?
 
2012-02-23 05:15:29 PM

colon_pow: Doc Daneeka: Saying that Romney is up 4 pts on Obama, when they are in fact statistically-tied, is misleading and inaccurate. And in fact is conservative spin.

how dense can you be, Doc? The poll results are the poll results. it's not misleading or inaccurate to give out the poll results.

quit cryin or i'll slap ya


It is misleading when that "lead" is within the margin of error for that particular poll.
 
2012-02-23 05:15:45 PM

Monkeyhouse Zendo: Philip Francis Queeg: I think his real agenda is abundantly clear: Aiding large corporations and the wealthy at the expense of everyone else.

I expect you're right but that's just very highly probable. I know I'm old fashioned but I like actual statements on policy.


As others have said just check out his tax plan and his military spending ideas and then factor in his claims of balancing the budget and you'll get an idea of how loose your asshole will be after 4 years.
 
2012-02-23 05:16:10 PM
Just more proof that democracy doesn't work.
 
2012-02-23 05:16:31 PM

CujoQuarrel: Philip Francis Queeg: Le Grand Inquisitor: Luneward: Ok, people are stupid. We get it.

Though considering Obama has yet to even start campaigning this year, it doesn't take Nostradamus to predict that the Republican candidate is going to get slaughtered. The senate and house races will be interesting to watch, though.

The campaigner-in-chief has been running for reelection since waking up after the '08 election. Seriously everything that guy does is some publicity shoot to make himself look engaged in solving the issues. But instead he just likes making catchy slogans and smiling and hoping nobody actually looks at his non-existence record from the last 4 years

So since his record is non-existent that means he's not a Socilaist Marxist Fascist radical Islamist tyrant, then?

I think that means he wants to be a Socilaist Marxist Fascist radical Islamist tyrant but he's really really bad at it because it interferes with his golf game.


Ahhh, so he's a lazy shiftless Socialist Marxist Fascist radical Islamist tyrant. That's makes more sense.
 
2012-02-23 05:17:11 PM

cameroncrazy1984: colon_pow: Doc Daneeka: Saying that Romney is up 4 pts on Obama, when they are in fact statistically-tied, is misleading and inaccurate. And in fact is conservative spin.

how dense can you be, Doc? The poll results are the poll results. it's not misleading or inaccurate to give out the poll results.

quit cryin or i'll slap ya

It is misleading when that "lead" is within the margin of error for that particular poll.


why? Do you know what the Margin of Error means and when you can and can't use it to describe a statistical tie? The author obviously didn't.
 
2012-02-23 05:18:57 PM

tenpoundsofcheese: cameroncrazy1984: colon_pow: Doc Daneeka: Saying that Romney is up 4 pts on Obama, when they are in fact statistically-tied, is misleading and inaccurate. And in fact is conservative spin.

how dense can you be, Doc? The poll results are the poll results. it's not misleading or inaccurate to give out the poll results.

quit cryin or i'll slap ya

It is misleading when that "lead" is within the margin of error for that particular poll.

why? Do you know what the Margin of Error means and when you can and can't use it to describe a statistical tie? The author obviously didn't.


So, in your and wikipedia's minds, it can only be a statistical tie if the margin of error is 4 points and the lead is 3 points? That makes no logical sense.
 
2012-02-23 05:19:05 PM

tenpoundsofcheese: What is more interesting is that when 0bama is down, the press uses the statistical tie (which is wrong), but when he is leading, they don't.


Is that because his lead is outside of the margin of error like in these Rasmussen polls?

Link
 
2012-02-23 05:20:21 PM

tenpoundsofcheese: What is more interesting is that when 0bama is down, the press uses the statistical tie (which is wrong), but when he is leading, they don't.


that's because Obama is the grand wizard of the liberal media conspiracy, duh.
 
2012-02-23 05:22:15 PM

Philip Francis Queeg: Monkeyhouse Zendo: the_geek: I seriously don't get the FUD about Romney. Policy-wise nothing scares me about him. What's the big concern, that he will waffle back and forth on principles based on what the electorate wants? OMGNOOOOOO!

I think the problem is that, knowing he'll say anything and adopt any position to get elected, you're electing someone to the highest office without any idea what his real agenda is. I'm not too worried if he's a weak president who waffles on issues. I'm more concerned that he has an actual agenda that he has not made clear.

I think his real agenda is abundantly clear: Aiding large corporations and the wealthy at the expense of everyone else.


We should also consider the additional agenda (also abundantly clear) of the conservative Congress that would probably accompany a Romney win. At the very least, we can expect that to include the Ryan Plan, ACA repeal, war with Iran, more spending, more tax cuts, more deregulation, reinstatement of DADT, the return of DOMA, a new and probably different NDAA, and probably the return of SOPA/PIPA.

There would also probably be measures similar to the Tea Party governors in Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Florida: drug testing for welfare recipients, privatization of state functions and operations, union-busting, voter ID, anti-immigrant, anti-abortion, anti-education.
 
2012-02-23 05:22:54 PM

Talondel: Bloody William: So Romney and Santorum are holding their own against Obama, when they've been in the spotlight attacking each other for months and Obama hasn't actually started campaigning or addressing them yet had a single negative ad thrown his way?

Yeah, that's a terrible sign.

Indeed.


Link (new window)

Took me five seconds to find a negative ad.

Also those guys can't go five minutes without ranting about Obama soshulism.
 
2012-02-23 05:23:07 PM

tenpoundsofcheese: lennavan: tenpoundsofcheese: No, that is not the most accurate way to summarize the poll results.

Being within a margin of error is not a statistical tie. There is a reason the numbers are reported 50/46 with a margin of error of 4 points, instead of 50/50 with a margin of error of 4 points.

Dude. You gonna get raped. It's gonna be ugly. We're talkin like two or three 40lb boxes of rape here.

Yeah, only because people don't know what margin of error means.

"The terms "statistical tie" and "statistical dead heat" are sometimes used to describe reported percentages that differ by less than a margin of error, but these terms can be misleading.[8][9] For one thing, the margin of error as generally calculated is applicable to an individual percentage and not the difference between percentages, so the difference between two percentage estimates may not be statistically significant even when they differ by more than the reported margin of error. The survey results also often provide strong information even when there is not a statistically significant difference."

What is more interesting is that when 0bama is down, the press uses the statistical tie (which is wrong), but when he is leading, they don't.


Dude. Not only are you going to get raped but in this one post you actually just handed your rapists their 40lb boxes of rape, stuffed a ball gag in your mouth and started humming along to Nirvana's "Rape Me."

And as if that wasn't enough, you even presented another hole for raping, right at the end.
 
2012-02-23 05:24:49 PM
Oh boo hoo, the sky is falling.
Look, Obama has over a billion dollars from his supporters saved up for his add campaign. So when this shindig starts those idiots won't have a choice but to vote for him.

/the president's got this in the bag.
/chill out, have a cookie.
 
2012-02-23 05:26:02 PM
img42.imageshack.us
 
2012-02-23 05:26:12 PM
Seriously, WTF WRT this poll?

Rasmussen has Obama up by close to 10 right now. That's Rasmussen, your pollster of choice if you want to know what old white guys are thinking. TPM poll average is below

dailydish.typepad.com

That said, this election could go either way- and most of what will cause Obama to lose is more or less out of his hands. Greek default leading to implosion of the Euro? That would cripple the US economy, drive us back into recession and probably cost him the election. Major Israeli strike on Iran, followed by attacks on tankers in Hormuz? Hello $7/gallon gas and a Romney presidency. Presidents get blamed for stuff like that even when they couldn't stop it.
 
2012-02-23 05:28:41 PM

colon_pow: starting to smell like jimmy carter around here..


Nah. Obama knows how to fight. He's almost as good at down and dirty politics as Bill Clinton was; heck, maybe better, considering he beat his wife in the primaries.

Example A: Obama knows that Romney is more difficult to beat than Santorum. So, it is in Obama's best interest to have Santorum win the nomination, or at least bloody Romney up as much as possible. The logical thing him to do towards those ends is to encourage Democrats to vote for Santorum in states with open primaries.

Like Michigan.

...where Obama just purchased a single-state ad buy attacking Romney for his comments on the auto bailout. One of Obama's Super PACs took the cue and did the same.

Link (new window)

Obama ain't Carter. He's Clinton. He's Johnson. He will win a second term.
 
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