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(Forbes)   Today Forbes takes a pretty good argument for gun rights and promptly empties the magazine into the void between correlation and causation   (forbes.com) divider line 149
    More: Sad, cogency, correlation and causation  
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8546 clicks; posted to Main » on 23 Feb 2012 at 10:55 AM (2 years ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2012-02-23 10:57:22 AM
FARK Gun pr0n nerd rage about 'Clip' vs. 'Magazine' in 3...2.....1....
 
2012-02-23 10:58:01 AM
Inb4 EVERYONE NEEDS GOVERNMENT MANDATE SAFETY CLASSES
THE SECOND AMENDMENT DOESN'T GIVE YOU THE RIGHT TO NUKES
etc
 
2012-02-23 10:58:03 AM
Correlation sometimes is causation.
 
2012-02-23 11:00:25 AM
I've never really understood the Democratic Party continuing to carry the gun control banner when it has obviously alienated a significant number of their natural working class constituency while simultaneously fueling the nutty gun-culture of the right.
 
2012-02-23 11:00:41 AM

Kiinux: Correlation sometimes is causation.


Correlation is never causation, though sometimes it may occur along with causation.
 
2012-02-23 11:00:47 AM
Abuse of responsibility by armed citizens is rare

Tell that to this kid.
 
2012-02-23 11:01:56 AM

Kiinux: Correlation sometimes is causation.


Probably one of the most over-used logical fallacies. That and appeal to authority.


/you're allowed to correlate when the subject matters are related
//you're allowed to appeal to authority when a consensus exists
 
2012-02-23 11:02:29 AM
In before some idiot says an armed society is a polite society...I'm pro-gun rights, but ffs, read some history people.
 
2012-02-23 11:03:00 AM
uhhhh, the Gabrielle Giffords shooting took place a year ago, not two years ago.
 
2012-02-23 11:03:29 AM
This is why selling guns to Mexican cartels is no big deal. Guns don't kill people, and in fact make everyone safer.
 
2012-02-23 11:04:25 AM
"Hey, kid: Abuse of responsibility by armed citizens is rare."

Also, the plural of anecdote is not data.
 
2012-02-23 11:05:56 AM
Well at least the submitter used magazine instead of clip.

/this is not a marker
//this however, might just be one
 
2012-02-23 11:06:26 AM

Sybarite: I've never really understood the Democratic Party continuing to carry the gun control banner when it has obviously alienated a significant number of their natural working class constituency while simultaneously fueling the nutty gun-culture of the right.


It hasn't been a big issue with Dems in recent years, probably for that very reason. Not to mention the fact that the only gun legislation signed by this Democratic president has been to allow guns on Amtrak trains and in national parks, despite the constant screaming from the right that he's coming to confiscate their guns any second now.
 
2012-02-23 11:07:09 AM
It's weird that there are still people arguing for these laws.

If you don't like guns I can understand that. If you'd rather live in a world without them, ok.

But when your argument is based around a series of predictions that are wrong every single time maybe get a new argument.

I mean with random chance you'd expect them to be right every now and then. But no, not a single one. Meaning that if you just flip their predictions around they are actually very useful oracles.
 
2012-02-23 11:08:04 AM
The average US citizen is nothing to be afraid of. Exceptions should not make the rules. Just leave people the fark alone.
 
2012-02-23 11:09:14 AM
imgs.xkcd.com

/hot like a smoking barrel.
 
2012-02-23 11:09:34 AM

someonelse: despite the constant screaming from the right that he's coming to confiscate their guns any second now.


That's more of a second term kinda action.

/begin whargarble

The 4chan Psychiatrist: Inb4 EVERYONE NEEDS GOVERNMENT MANDATE SAFETY CLASSES
THE SECOND AMENDMENT DOESN'T GIVE YOU THE RIGHT TO NUKES
etc


Also in before Chief Justice Finn promotes the defunct collective rights argument.
 
2012-02-23 11:11:10 AM
Author is also responsible for "Climate of Corruption: Politics and Power Behind the Global Warming Hoax". Color me surprised, since his writing and presentation of 'facts' in this piece was in no way slanted or biased.

Best science I've read on this topic is from the Freakanomics guys. We have less people in the sweet spot for committing crimes, so fewer crimes. QED.

/gun owner
 
2012-02-23 11:12:26 AM
Gun ownership is up and violent crime is down.
What is the problem Brady Bill nut jobs?
 
2012-02-23 11:15:01 AM
Larry Bell has discovered "cum hoc ergo propter hoc" fallacy.
 
2012-02-23 11:19:34 AM

ObscureNameHere: FARK Gun pr0n nerd rage about 'Clip' vs. 'Magazine' in 3...2.....1....


Kyoki: Well at least the submitter used magazine instead of clip.

/this is not a marker
//this however, might just be one


You know, many gun manufacturers refer to their magazines as clips, so Imma stop getting my waddies in a pant about it, and I recommend every one else do the same.
 
2012-02-23 11:24:20 AM

Calmamity: You know, many gun manufacturers refer to their magazines as clips


Where? I don't recall ever seeing that.
 
2012-02-23 11:26:22 AM

someonelse: Sybarite: I've never really understood the Democratic Party continuing to carry the gun control banner when it has obviously alienated a significant number of their natural working class constituency while simultaneously fueling the nutty gun-culture of the right.

It hasn't been a big issue with Dems in recent years, probably for that very reason. Not to mention the fact that the only gun legislation signed by this Democratic president has been to allow guns on Amtrak trains and in national parks, despite the constant screaming from the right that he's coming to confiscate their guns any second now.


It's being used by the DNC & RNC as the same sort of wedge issue as abortion rights. Neither party really wants either of these issues to go away. They're too useful for distracting their respective bases from the fact that neither part actually gives a shiat about them, just about maintaining the status quo, and thus their power.
 
2012-02-23 11:28:13 AM

jbuist: Calmamity: You know, many gun manufacturers refer to their magazines as clips

Where? I don't recall ever seeing that.


The book for my Kahr referred to the magazine as a "clip" I twitched...
 
2012-02-23 11:30:54 AM

CheekyMonkey: someonelse: Sybarite: I've never really understood the Democratic Party continuing to carry the gun control banner when it has obviously alienated a significant number of their natural working class constituency while simultaneously fueling the nutty gun-culture of the right.

It hasn't been a big issue with Dems in recent years, probably for that very reason. Not to mention the fact that the only gun legislation signed by this Democratic president has been to allow guns on Amtrak trains and in national parks, despite the constant screaming from the right that he's coming to confiscate their guns any second now.

It's being used by the DNC & RNC as the same sort of wedge issue as abortion rights. Neither party really wants either of these issues to go away. They're too useful for distracting their respective bases from the fact that neither part actually gives a shiat about them, just about maintaining the status quo, and thus their power.


"Blood flowing in the streets!!!!!" and "Dumpsters full of babies!!!!" gets people to vote down one side of the ballot or the other. So they will keep using it.
 
2012-02-23 11:33:34 AM
When the government turns tyrannical you bet your ass Americans buy guns in record numbers.

WOW! Big surprise, nobody wants to get handcuffed and sprayed in the face with bear mace.

It is a sign that the people no longer believe the police are there to help them, and they are better off solving their own problems because even if you kill someone, it's not like the cops are going to give you any trouble unless you're black.
 
2012-02-23 11:34:19 AM

jbuist: Calmamity: You know, many gun manufacturers refer to their magazines as clips

Where? I don't recall ever seeing that.


This Marlin is what springs to mind first because I looked at it recently.
 
2012-02-23 11:34:20 AM

CheekyMonkey: It's being used by the DNC & RNC as the same sort of wedge issue as abortion rights. Neither party really wants either of these issues to go away.


You could be right. I wasn't thinking of boogieman wedge issues, and I don't usually open the "You won't believe this!" mass political e-mails that keep filling my spam folder.
 
2012-02-23 11:34:36 AM

fringedmyotis: Author is also responsible for "Climate of Corruption: Politics and Power Behind the Global Warming Hoax". Color me surprised, since his writing and presentation of 'facts' in this piece was in no way slanted or biased.

Best science I've read on this topic is from the Freakanomics guys. We have less people in the sweet spot for committing crimes, so fewer crimes. QED.

I wonder how the dramatically lower violent crime rate correlates to the dramatically high number of people confined in prison?
 
2012-02-23 11:39:52 AM
Its worth noting that while a correlation isn't enough to prove a positive claim, a lack of correlation is enough to disprove a proposed causative relationship that should result in a fairly clear correlation. Welcome to falisifiability, lads.

jeblis: Abuse of responsibility by armed citizens is rare

Tell that to this kid.


Several states, including Texas, were asked by their legislatures to keep a separate tabulation of crimes committed by CCP holders, expressed in both absolute terms and per active license. In Texas' case, there is literally only one crime that CCP holders didn't commit with a significantly lower frequency than the general population, and that is "failure to present license upon request"... because it's literally impossible for an unlicensed person to fail to present a license.

So... yeah, rare is probably the right word there.

If you're curious about the specifics of the statistics, here ya go. You'll have to look up the number of licenses issued v. the population to convert the numbers on that link, but nonetheless.
 
2012-02-23 11:40:14 AM
There better be some gun pr0n in this thread before the 100th comment or so help me FSM... *motions to pour beer out*

/Keep your damn heads DOWN!
//DON'T LOOK AT ME!
 
2012-02-23 11:40:20 AM

Mishno: I wonder how the dramatically lower violent crime rate correlates to the dramatically high number of people confined in prison?


In the US? Probably very well, since crime has been dropping and incarceration rates rising in the past few decades. That being said, there's some good reasons to think that high incarceration rates contribute to negative social oucomes that leads to crime.

/it's one of those correlation != causation things that people were talking about up thread.
 
2012-02-23 11:41:39 AM

Mishno: I wonder how the dramatically lower violent crime rate correlates to the dramatically high number of people confined in prison?


According to the freakonomics guys, about 20-25% of the drop in crime can be attributed to tougher policing, versus 55% for abortion of unwanted babies that have a much higher statistical probability of ending up in the justice system.

/just watched the documentary last night
 
2012-02-23 11:42:21 AM

ObscureNameHere: FARK Gun pr0n nerd rage about 'Clip' vs. 'Magazine' in 3...2.....1....


A stripper clip has nothing to do with what most Farkers might think.
 
2012-02-23 11:43:12 AM
Also. .

FTA:
"Cato researchers investigated(sic). . .5,000 randomly selected incidents"

I'd say the author has a pretty loose understanding of Cato, Researchers and Investigations.

I'd also say the Cato Institute has a pretty loose understanding of what random selection is.
 
2012-02-23 11:43:18 AM

Calmamity: This Marlin is what springs to mind first because I looked at it recently.


No kidding: 10-shot nickel-plated clip magazine

/Problem, gun shoppers?
 
2012-02-23 11:44:07 AM
Addendum to my previous post: roughly 2% of the population of Texas has had an active ccp for the last decade or so if you're not up to looking up the specific numbers. So a proportionate number of convictions would be 2.0%.
 
2012-02-23 11:45:07 AM

fringedmyotis: Author is also responsible for "Climate of Corruption: Politics and Power Behind the Global Warming Hoax". Color me surprised, since his writing and presentation of 'facts' in this piece was in no way slanted or biased.


Seeing his byline made me more suspicious of his writing than even his suspicious writing did. "I also bullsh*t about the following topics..." UGH!

/not a gun owner
//gun rights believer
 
2012-02-23 11:47:30 AM
I like the part where they compared the number of school shootings/mall shootings in the past 30 years to pre-1980 to show how nothing bad can ever happen if you own a gun.

No I'm not anti-gun. Fark you for all your whiny comments about how guns save millions of lives a year, prevent rape and murder, and turn everyone who owns one into a crime prevention superhero.
 
2012-02-23 11:48:11 AM

Voiceofreason01: Mishno: I wonder how the dramatically lower violent crime rate correlates to the dramatically high number of people confined in prison?

In the US? Probably very well, since crime has been dropping and incarceration rates rising in the past few decades. That being said, there's some good reasons to think that high incarceration rates contribute to negative social oucomes that leads to crime.

/it's one of those correlation != causation things that people were talking about up thread.


It also has to do with what is done with them while they are in prison. Some are just bad apples that you can't help. But I would bet a large majority of people in prison don't want to go back and if given the proper tools/opportunities while in prison will have a much better chance of not re-offending. As opposed to just warehousing them for the term of the sentence.
 
2012-02-23 11:51:22 AM

Sybarite: I've never really understood the Democratic Party continuing to carry the gun control banner when it has obviously alienated a significant number of their natural working class constituency while simultaneously fueling the nutty gun-culture of the right.


When was the last time the Dems ran on the that? The 90s? They've pretty much given up that plank of the party (Obama has expanded gun rights further than Bush did). I agree the NRA continues to run on the "Libruls are cumming to take yer guns!!" narrative. But the war is over, and the Gun Rights folks won. All that talk does now is drive the cost of ammo.

/gun owner
//hates NRA with a passion of a thousand white phosphorus rounds.
 
2012-02-23 11:53:58 AM

Bag of Hammers: Sybarite: I've never really understood the Democratic Party continuing to carry the gun control banner when it has obviously alienated a significant number of their natural working class constituency while simultaneously fueling the nutty gun-culture of the right.

When was the last time the Dems ran on the that? The 90s? They've pretty much given up that plank of the party (Obama has expanded gun rights further than Bush did). I agree the NRA continues to run on the "Libruls are cumming to take yer guns!!" narrative. But the war is over, and the Gun Rights folks won. All that talk does now is drive the cost of ammo.

/gun owner
//hates NRA with a passion of a thousand white phosphorus rounds.


You can't expand rights you already have. Even if the gubment tried to take away said rights, they were always yours.
 
2012-02-23 11:54:37 AM

squirrelflavoredyogurt: I like the part where they compared the number of school shootings/mall shootings in the past 30 years to pre-1980 to show how nothing bad can ever happen if you own a gun.

No I'm not anti-gun. Fark you for all your whiny comments about how guns save millions of lives a year, prevent rape and murder, and turn everyone who owns one into a crime prevention superhero.


3/10 The "I'm not anti-gun" statement is a dead give away that something stupid is going to follow. The latter statement might have gotten some bites if not the former.
 
2012-02-23 11:54:57 AM
Clerk: [Homer grabs for his gun, but the cashier holds onto it] Sorry, the law requires a five-day waiting period. We've got to run a background check.

Homer: Five days? But I'm mad now!

[the cashier pulls the gun away from him]
Homer: I'd kill you if I had my gun.

Clerk: Yeah, well, you don't.
 
2012-02-23 11:55:01 AM

Calmamity: You know, many gun manufacturers refer to their magazines as clips, so Imma stop getting my waddies in a pant about it, and I recommend every one else do the same.


I stopped making a fuss about it when I noticed that all my military buddys tend to use the terms interchangeably. I figure that if I don't have the balls to correct a retired SEAL, I probably ought not be pedantic about it on the internet.

Once I stopped, I started to notice that not once did misuse of the terms change the argument being made, and being an ass about it only serves to derail the conversation. I know what the other guy is talking about, and it doesn't matter to him if his terminology is slightly off.
 
2012-02-23 11:56:01 AM
...if not for the former.
 
2012-02-23 11:56:31 AM

Calmamity: jbuist: Calmamity: You know, many gun manufacturers refer to their magazines as clips

Where? I don't recall ever seeing that.

This Marlin is what springs to mind first because I looked at it recently.


For shame Marlin. Of course, it also generates more search engine hits... so yay captialism?

/bring back the Papoose, dammit
 
2012-02-23 11:59:02 AM

squirrelflavoredyogurt: I like the part where they compared the number of school shootings/mall shootings in the past 30 years to pre-1980 to show how nothing bad can ever happen if you own a gun.


Especially since you weren't allowed to just randomly wander around armed in a school pre-1980 either. Rifle teams were teams, you kept that shiat locked up in a locker where it would be no more help defending against a potential shooter than your notebook.

Most variations on that argument are kinda silly.

However:

Fark you for all your whiny comments about how guns save millions of lives a year, prevent rape and murder, and turn everyone who owns one into a crime prevention superhero.

The lowest estimate for defensive use of firearms is the federal NCVS, which involves giving your name and contact information and making an official statement to the federal government and is thus going to run low (but restrict itself to extremely certain/indisputable cases), is a bit over 100k instances per year nationally. The vast majority of scientific surveys (there have been twenty or so) pin the number about an order of magnitude higher, at 800k to 2.0million instances per year.

All of those incidents by definition prevented the commission of a crime (thus "defensive" use). While it wasn't always murder or rape, sometimes it probably was.
 
2012-02-23 11:59:21 AM

jeblis: Abuse of responsibility by armed citizens is rare

Tell that to this kid.


Your argument is invalid. The shooter "Fred Yazdi, also known as Farzad Fakhriyazdi" is clearly a brown muslin terrorist and not a responsible armed citizen.

Oh, and single examples are fairly worthless when discussing public policy. For every sad story you come up with, I could produce one that supports my narrative. Here's a few for you:
Link (new window)
 
2012-02-23 12:00:36 PM

Von_Ruff: There better be some gun pr0n in this thread before the 100th comment or so help me FSM... *motions to pour beer out*


I've tried for like 20 seconds to find a screen shot of Gloria (Sofia Vergara) from Modern Family at the pistol range from the most recent episode to no avail. Sorry.
 
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