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(Google)   Will Mittens lick Santorum in Colorado? Will conservatives in Missoura change the race? Will Giant Elderly Baby do any better than third? Who is RON PAUL? It's your Minnesota/Missouri/Colorado Republican election thread   (google.com ) divider line
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1624 clicks; posted to Politics » on 07 Feb 2012 at 8:32 PM (4 years ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2012-02-07 10:12:48 PM  
So, Santorum is utterly destroying Romney in the beauty contest, and seems to actually be winning in Minnesota. Hell, Romney looks to be third in Minnesota. If Colorado doesn't look better, Romney is in one hell of a lot of trouble.
 
2012-02-07 10:13:02 PM  

DamnYankees: I'm confused. How is Santorum winning three elections in one night? Did something happen that I was unconscious for?


The Prop 8 ruling was released today. Guess who's going to run to the polls?
 
2012-02-07 10:14:07 PM  
This is disgusting.

Also, I just learned Steve Schmidt has a beard now because he was just on MSNBC. Hi Steve Schmidt! I haven't seen you since probably November 2008!
 
2012-02-07 10:14:10 PM  

ariseatex: With 7.8% reporting, Ramsey County, MN is going for RON PAUL!

County seat of Ramsey County: SAINT PAUL!

/probably won't stay that way
//still made me giggle
///slashies come in threes


It might. Paul won just under 50% of my caucus, downtown Saint Paul. Disappointed in the number of neighbors that chose Santorum, a lot of mumbling about "I am Catholic too".

/Paul, if only to get the game show host from the office
 
2012-02-07 10:14:25 PM  
This is a direct result of a week that saw Prop 8 overturned and the whole Komen/Planned Parenthood.
 
2012-02-07 10:14:28 PM  

Dusk-You-n-Me: DamnYankees: I'm confused. How is Santorum winning three elections in one night? Did something happen that I was unconscious for?

No one else campaigned in them.


Why not? Colorado and Minn are voting for realsies, right? These are their actual elections, seems weird no one else would even try.
 
2012-02-07 10:14:58 PM  

vygramul: Benevolent Misanthrope: Jesus. Santorum. Holly schitt. WTF is going on with the GOP??

As a former GOPer, I can tell you what is going on. Romney is a liar. He's a RINO. Gingrich is so tainted and cloyingly pandering that he is just too reprehensible. That leaves Santorum. I heard Santorum speak a couple of days ago, and his speech was EXCELLENT, even if I found parts of it detestable - he made the case to Republicans and was quite good at it.


Really? The guy is a big government conservative. He didn't see a mandate he didn't like when he was in the Senate. And he basically wants to intrude into every area of your life. If this is making the case for Republicans - they have bigger problems than I originally thought.
 
2012-02-07 10:15:15 PM  

rynthetyn: DamnYankees: I'm confused. How is Santorum winning three elections in one night? Did something happen that I was unconscious for?

The Prop 8 ruling was released today. Guess who's going to run to the polls?


I have to agree with the previous poster who said Santorum definitely got a bump today, but that it won't last. I think this anomaly, as bizarre as it is, will soon pass. Even the GOP can't hold on to that much crazy too long.
 
2012-02-07 10:15:25 PM  
28.media.tumblr.com
 
2012-02-07 10:15:29 PM  
Is Romney really going to lose all three of these?
 
2012-02-07 10:15:50 PM  
The results in Colorado are coming in very slowly because they have to be placed into small wooden kegs and attached to the collar of a St. Bernard, which then runs them to the state elections office in Denver.
 
2012-02-07 10:16:07 PM  

The All-Powerful Atheismo: theknuckler_33: The All-Powerful Atheismo: flavor of the month: The All-Powerful Atheismo they had Sarah farking Palin on the ticket and they still came kinda close to winning.

by modern standards 2008 was a blow out. Obama would have won the electoral college with just the states in which he took 60% of the vote.

In terms of actual vote percentage, he only won 53-47. Yeah that's a comfortable lead... but it's no 60-40 Reagan lead.

I consider the popular vote a better true indicator than the shiatty electoral college.

So you must be totally outraged that Bush II was actually coronated president in 2000.

No person's vote should count more than another, regardless of whether a democrat or republican stands to win


The idea that one vote counts more than another is an age-old debate. If you are a conservative in Massachusettes, then your vote for president is 'worth less' than a vote for the republican presidential candidate in, say, Ohio. But that doesn't validate your opinion on popular vote for president. What point are you trying to make? Are you in favor of getting rid of the electoral college and going with popular vote for presidential elections? If so, I'm with you.
 
2012-02-07 10:16:14 PM  

inkblot: What the fark is happening?


I'm pretty sure it's this:

i44.tinypic.com

 
2012-02-07 10:16:18 PM  

theknuckler_33: I've been following Nate Silver's blog at fivethirtyeight and unless I missed it, he had no predictions about Minn and Co at all which surprises me if those contests had any tangible result in the nomination process. I mean, he's blogging results tonight, but had no predictions of those states... I wonder why?


There was no polling done in CO that I have seen. There was an assumption that Romney would win CO, having won in 2008, but Santorum tried to blanket the state thickly for the past week. I don't think Silver does predictions without data.
 
2012-02-07 10:16:39 PM  

DamnYankees: Why not? Colorado and Minn are voting for realsies, right? These are their actual elections, seems weird no one else would even try.


They wanted to focus on other states I guess.
 
2012-02-07 10:16:56 PM  

vygramul: theknuckler_33: CapnBlues: the 9th circuit decision today was the best thing to ever happen to rick santorum.

Am I misinformed? Are there actual delegates being issued tonight in any of these states?

Yes. Colorado and Minn. are issuing delegates. Missouri isn't, but I don't think they really buck the results of the earlier vote.



At least for Minn, you're correct they are issuing delegates, but these aren't the ones that go to the National GOP Convention and therefore the results are not binding. It's a caucus preference poll tonight - they'll select delegates to send to the Congressional District caucuses in April. They'll do the preference poll again, and select delegates to send to the State GOP Convention in May. It's at the State Convention where they will select delegates to send to the National Convention (and at that point, delegates are bound to a particular candidate). Up until the state convention, delegates can certainly change their minds about who they prefer for the nominee.

What can I say, caucus states are messed up.

/precinct delegate in 2008 for Obama - didn't make it past the Congressional district
 
2012-02-07 10:16:58 PM  

DamnYankees: I'm confused. How is Santorum winning three elections in one night? Did something happen that I was unconscious for?


I'll just copypaste my daily roundup from earlier. If you want it with links go here

Up for Grabs:
- Minnesota and Colorado caucuses, Missouri non-binding primary. These are precinct caucuses where voters will select delegates to the next tier in their state's delegate awarding process, which is where everything will get really interesting. So, today's results are all non-binding but will give an interesting snapshot of preferences at the state level, and of how each candidate's ground operation is performing. Nuts and bolts on the caucus formats at The Green Papers.
- PPP's polling shows this is likely to be a very good day for Rick Santorum. He can potentially win Missouri and Minnesota and come second to Romney in Colorado. Why is Santorum doing so well in the Midwest? Three possibilities: 1) Nobody has bothered to attack him until literally yesterday, 2) He seems "likable" (if you don't listen to the words coming out of his mouth), 3) Evangelicals and tea partiers may be coalescing around him as an alternative to Gingrich. Missouri will be an interesting indicator of whether Santorum is uniting the religious right - Mike Huckabee finished second (to McCain) there in 2008.
- 538 speculated on Sunday on what the Republican race will look like if it becomes a Romney-Santorum contest. I think they underplay the influence of attack ads once Romney starts treating Santorum like a real opponent. Romney's campaign started attacks on Santorum yesterday.
- But, but, the general election? Yesterday's WashPost/ABC poll found that Obama leads all the candidates, but Romney performs best. More polls at RCP
 
2012-02-07 10:17:14 PM  

BSABSVR: iq_in_binary: kronicfeld: Three Crooked Squirrels: polling 2nd in Colorado

The state that gave us Romer v. Evans. No surprise. Gay-hating bigots.

You've never been to Denver or Boulder, have you? The reason that referendum got anywhere near the ballot was because of the minority yet extremely religious right wing here in CO that is only ever relevant in towns small enough to fit its entire population into a single church every Sunday that unfortunately account for almost a third of the population in the state. Denver and the surrounding metro areas (Ft. Collins, Boulder, Aurora, Castle Rock, etc.) are very liberal. That referendum got snuck through and practically every small town hick flocked to their church to vote on it, which resulted in it passing by an extremely narrow margin because us "city folk" have more important things to do sometimes than voting on an off year election.

Every attempt since by the same church to get the "Personhood Amendment" through has not only failed spectacularly but is usually met with rather vicious opposition.

If you looked any further than that you'd realize that a lot of what you'd consider to be "Liberal" in popular culture is Denver Metro based. Chipotle, Mapquest, Quiznos, Spicy Pickle, Quark, Beatport, Examiner.com/, MPEG LA, and more wind farms and green energy solutions opening up on a municipal level (read: not private, paid for by ballot referendums and bonds) than any other state in the country. Hell, Denver's LGBT community is healthier than San Francisco's almost.

We're pretty liberal over here, we just have the moonbats in the hills that shiat in the pool every now and then.

So CO is to blame for Wampler?

/Also discrimination gainst LGBT people with regard to housing and employment is illegal. And the ballot question in Romer v. Evans was intentionally worded badly to muddle up the vote.
//So yeah, fairly non-bigoted here comparatively.


No, that would be whatever backwards city out east that randomly decided to outlaw coat hangers for 9 months. I assure you however that if he is in Denver, CO will be responsible for his demise.
 
2012-02-07 10:18:34 PM  

buckler: rynthetyn: DamnYankees: I'm confused. How is Santorum winning three elections in one night? Did something happen that I was unconscious for?

The Prop 8 ruling was released today. Guess who's going to run to the polls?

I have to agree with the previous poster who said Santorum definitely got a bump today, but that it won't last. I think this anomaly, as bizarre as it is, will soon pass. Even the GOP can't hold on to that much crazy too long.


I've given up on predicting what the GOP is going to do, as far as crazy goes. If the media starts treating him as the frontrunner and people start to see him as the one with momentum, all bets are off.
 
2012-02-07 10:18:43 PM  

DeaH: Is Romney really going to lose all three of these?


Best phrasing of tonight's real question.

/"Wtf is wrong with the Republican Party" couldn't get on the ballot.
 
2012-02-07 10:19:03 PM  
Someone talk me down... Is this shiat really happening?
 
2012-02-07 10:19:35 PM  
What's everybody's poison tonight? Here's mine:

www.freeimagehosting.net
 
2012-02-07 10:19:52 PM  

DeaH: Is Romney really going to lose all three of these?


There isn't anything close to enough information in Colorado to decide. Santorum will probably win the countryside, but we need Denver to figure anything out.
 
2012-02-07 10:20:33 PM  
Only 8% of precincts reporting in Colorado, but Santorum has 49% of the vote there.

Oh, could you imagine the LULz if Santorum wins all these, big?
 
2012-02-07 10:20:41 PM  

theknuckler_33: The All-Powerful Atheismo: theknuckler_33: The All-Powerful Atheismo: flavor of the month: The All-Powerful Atheismo they had Sarah farking Palin on the ticket and they still came kinda close to winning.

by modern standards 2008 was a blow out. Obama would have won the electoral college with just the states in which he took 60% of the vote.

In terms of actual vote percentage, he only won 53-47. Yeah that's a comfortable lead... but it's no 60-40 Reagan lead.

I consider the popular vote a better true indicator than the shiatty electoral college.

So you must be totally outraged that Bush II was actually coronated president in 2000.

No person's vote should count more than another, regardless of whether a democrat or republican stands to win

The idea that one vote counts more than another is an age-old debate. If you are a conservative in Massachusettes, then your vote for president is 'worth less' than a vote for the republican presidential candidate in, say, Ohio. But that doesn't validate your opinion on popular vote for president. What point are you trying to make? Are you in favor of getting rid of the electoral college and going with popular vote for presidential elections? If so, I'm with you.


Of course I'm in favor of that. But my only point was that the 2008 election was closer than some people like to admit. Obama is an incredible candidate, and Palin is a walking talking point / poop regurgitator, yet he still only won by less than 53-47.
 
2012-02-07 10:21:20 PM  
I would pay good money to see Rick Santorum in the general.

/personally I'm voting for Brackhaven
 
2012-02-07 10:21:23 PM  

bobbette: Missouri will be an interesting indicator of whether Santorum is uniting the religious right


He's at 55% in a three-way race right now, and might actually win the cities. I say we have an answer to that.
 
2012-02-07 10:22:43 PM  

Earguy: Only 8% of precincts reporting in Colorado, but Santorum has 49% of the vote there.

Oh, could you imagine the LULz if Santorum wins all these, big?


i feel like Santorum could really get us to the apocalypse.

/did you know that the guy who voiced apocalypse in the 1990's X-Men cartoon was also the guy who played Gaius Baltar on the original Battlestar Galactica series?
 
2012-02-07 10:22:59 PM  

seventypercent: What's everybody's poison tonight? Here's mine:

[www.freeimagehosting.net image 252x400]


dagyaa.files.wordpress.com

But I have to wait a few hours.
 
2012-02-07 10:23:15 PM  

bravian: Really? The guy is a big government conservative. He didn't see a mandate he didn't like when he was in the Senate. And he basically wants to intrude into every area of your life. If this is making the case for Republicans - they have bigger problems than I originally thought.


Republican voters are, by and large, OK with big government if it's things they like. Romney is talking about restoring Medicare money and increasing military spending at the same time he blames Obama for spending.

Santorum panders to a certain group of Republicans who think that small government means "big defense, religiously motivated laws, and no hippies telling me that I have to respect diversity".

Having also seen Santorum speak though, IMO he comes off as slightly whiny when he gets really passionate. It's just too weird an affect.
 
2012-02-07 10:23:23 PM  
i256.photobucket.com

no thanks
 
2012-02-07 10:23:47 PM  

CapnBlues: Earguy: Only 8% of precincts reporting in Colorado, but Santorum has 49% of the vote there.

Oh, could you imagine the LULz if Santorum wins all these, big?

i feel like Santorum could really get us to the apocalypse.

/did you know that the guy who voiced apocalypse in the 1990's X-Men cartoon was also the guy who played Gaius Baltar on the original Battlestar Galactica series?


i didn't say the thing about the apocalypse just so that i could say my trivia. it was more of a free association running-at-mouth kind of thing.
 
2012-02-07 10:24:11 PM  

Chameleon: I would pay good money to see Rick Santorum in the general.


It would be...interesting. I suspect that if he and Obama were to meet, the handshake would result in the annihilation of them both, with a tremendous release of energy corresponding to E=Mc2
 
2012-02-07 10:24:18 PM  
Romney is in a very sticky situation.
 
2012-02-07 10:24:23 PM  
Am I the only person that thinks that "Mittens" is a stupid name? And the whole Santorum does not sound / look like "scrotum." It's just lame. It's almost as stupid as "fartbama."
 
2012-02-07 10:24:39 PM  

seventypercent: These three contests had very little polling done prior to tonight, so there wasn't much to go on.

In a way, elections like these are the most fun to watch, since it isn't painfully obvious well in advance who is going to win, as was the case in Florida, South Carolina, and New Hampshire.


BSABSVR: There was no polling done in CO that I have seen. There was an assumption that Romney would win CO, having won in 2008, but Santorum tried to blanket the state thickly for the past week. I don't think Silver does predictions without data.


That all makes sense, but until tonight, he really hasn't mentioned these contests at all. I haven't been following that blog religiously, but I've checked it pretty much every day and tonight's contests haven't been mentioned at all. I'm just surprised. He's a damned thorough dude and even if there weren't any data to run through his models, I'd still expect him to provide some commentary about the contests. I'll be damned, but I didn't even know this shiat was going on tonight.
 
2012-02-07 10:24:54 PM  

Benevolent Misanthrope: Jesus. Santorum. Holly schitt. WTF is going on with the GOP??


If I had a dime for every time I asked myself that question in the past ten years...I'd be able to afford my own moon base.
 
2012-02-07 10:24:55 PM  

seventypercent: What's everybody's poison tonight? Here's mine:



3.bp.blogspot.com

It's WILD here!
 
2012-02-07 10:25:34 PM  

The All-Powerful Atheismo: Obama is an incredible candidate, and Palin is a walking talking point / poop regurgitator, yet he still only won by less than 53-47.


That's a little too simplistic. You need to compare Obama's performance to people who who running in a similar situation, namely non-incumbents from the opposing party. IIRC, Obama got the highest percentage of votes for such a candidate since Eisenhower.
 
2012-02-07 10:26:05 PM  
Used to make parts for their brewery, got paid in mislabels and stamp-caps.

At 20? SWEET gig.
 
2012-02-07 10:26:11 PM  

twobux: And the whole Santorum does not sound / look like "scrotum."


Oh look, someone's new to the internet.
 
2012-02-07 10:26:19 PM  

inkblot: What the fark is happening?


Froth.... Froth everywhere.
 
2012-02-07 10:26:26 PM  

bobbette: seventypercent: What's everybody's poison tonight? Here's mine:

[www.freeimagehosting.net image 252x400]

[dagyaa.files.wordpress.com image 267x400]

But I have to wait a few hours.


www.cheapwinefinder.com

And no waiting. I'm already drunk.
 
2012-02-07 10:26:37 PM  
img402.imageshack.us
 
2012-02-07 10:26:55 PM  
So tonight it's the Michele Bachmann Republicans, the Tom Tancredo Republicans, and the John Ashcroft Republicans voting?

No wonder Romney's struggling...
 
2012-02-07 10:27:21 PM  

vygramul: theknuckler_33: CapnBlues: the 9th circuit decision today was the best thing to ever happen to rick santorum.

Am I misinformed? Are there actual delegates being issued tonight in any of these states?

Yes. Colorado and Minn. are issuing delegates. Missouri isn't, but I don't think they really buck the results of the earlier vote.


Yes and no. In caucus states the first round of caucuses typically do not determine delegate allocation. The results of these caucuses determine who is going to the next round (typically, organized by county or by congressional district, I think) and ultimately to the state caucuses. The representatives moving on will be the ones who supported Santorum at the precinct caucuses.
 
2012-02-07 10:27:41 PM  
media.tumblr.com

Dammit Fark
 
2012-02-07 10:27:54 PM  

bobbette:
- PPP's polling shows this is likely to be a very good day for Rick Santorum. He can potentially win Missouri and Minnesota and come second to Romney in Colorado. Why is Santorum doing so well in the Midwest? Three possibilities: 1) Nobody has bothered to attack him until literally yesterday, 2) He seems "likable" (if you don't listen to the words coming out of his mouth), 3) Evangelicals and tea partiers may be coalescing around him as an alternative to Gingrich. Missouri will be an interesting indicator of whether Santorum is uniting the religious right - Mike Huckabee finished second (to McCain) there in 2008.


You forgot to add that Minnesota really isn't all that reliable as a progressive state anymore. Once you get out past the Twin Cities area/Duluth, it goes very red, very fast. A lot of very conservative, evangelical people living out in the boonies - when they actually show up to vote, it makes elections very close or swing the wrong way (ie - franken recount 2008, michele bachmann keeps getting re-elected, another recount for the governorship in 2010 which barely went to the Dems). Hate to say it, but I wouldn't be at all surprised if over the next decade, MN starts to flip red more and more often.

Sad to see my state - the state of Humphrey, Mondale, and E. McCarthy - fall so low.

/if you live in MN, vote no on same-sex marriage ban in Nov
 
2012-02-07 10:28:03 PM  

The All-Powerful Atheismo: theknuckler_33: The idea that one vote counts more than another is an age-old debate. If you are a conservative in Massachusettes, then your vote for president is 'worth less' than a vote for the republican presidential candidate in, say, Ohio. But that doesn't validate your opinion on popular vote for president. What point are you trying to make? Are you in favor of getting rid of the electoral college and going with popular vote for presidential elections? If so, I'm with you.

Of course I'm in favor of that. But my only point was that the 2008 election was closer than some people like to admit. Obama is an incredible candidate, and Palin is a walking talking point / poop regurgitator, yet he still only won by less than 53-47.


Well, sure, but that margin, if I'm not mistaken, was the biggest since the 80's, so pretty major.
 
2012-02-07 10:28:17 PM  
Looks like a good night for Santorum tonight.


Bwaaahahahahahaha! We're going to need a few more GOP debates, I suspect.
 
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