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(Some Guy) Amusing Canadian police determine that certain astrological signs are more likely to be Aries-ted   (inquisitr.com) divider line 49
More: Amusing, zodiac  
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2643 clicks; posted to Geek » on 05 Feb 2012 at 6:25 AM   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»   |    Get this fabulous T-Shirt and impress the methane out of your friends! shirt it!



49 Comments   (+0 »)
   
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2012-02-04 08:15:18 PM

[R.app GUI 1.43 (5989) x86_64-apple-darwin9.8.0]

>library(outliers)

> signs
> shapiro.test(signs)

Shapiro-Wilk normality test

data: signs
W = 0.9509, p-value = 0.6502


Normally distributed.



> mean(signs)
[1] 166.0833
> sd(signs)
[1] 21.13359

> dnorm(209, mean=166, sd=21.13)
[1] 0.002380873
> dnorm(139, mean=166, sd=21.13)
[1] 0.008345574


On the tails of their own distribution.

Are they really outliers?



> grubbs.test(signs, type=11)

Grubbs test for two opposite outliers

data: signs
G = 3.3123, U = 0.4707, p-value = 0.6774
alternative hypothesis: 139 and 209 are outliers



Nope.

They don't appear to be extraordinary.
 
ZAZ [TotalFark]
2012-02-04 08:57:59 PM
DO NOT WANT Poster Girl

Have you ever tried throwing your library at traffic accident statistics? Traffic accident stats are overdispersed. That leads to a high rate of claims that changes made things better/worse when the truth is, humans are just really weird.
 
2012-02-05 03:06:03 AM
That's because Aries was the god of war. If you know that, and everyone tells you "You are an Aries." eventually you'll get combative.
 
2012-02-05 05:17:25 AM
I blame fetal alcohol syndrome. These children were conceived in June and the first few months of pregnancy were spent in the summer. The mothers probably weren't aware of being pregnant until they had already dosed the children with a significant amount of alcohol.
 
2012-02-05 06:36:39 AM
Is an Aries...what to make something of it???? Well, do you punk????
 
2012-02-05 06:45:42 AM
doglover: That's because Aries was the god of war. If you know that, and everyone tells you "You are an Aries." eventually you'll get combative.

Aries =/= Ares.

Even the dumbass astrologer in the article got those mixed up...
 
2012-02-05 07:06:57 AM
While I believe births peak around August/September I would have liked this study to have addressed number of births per zodiac sign in relation to the number arrests.
 
2012-02-05 07:41:23 AM
That's because Aries was the god of war. If you know that, and everyone tells you "You are an Aries." eventually you'll get combative.

I just bought a Ram truck, good truck.
 
2012-02-05 08:01:48 AM
KkrrRRZZZZ: That's because Aries was the god of war. If you know that, and everyone tells you "You are an Aries." eventually you'll get combative.

I just bought a Ram GOD OF WAR truck, good truck.


It gets 100 dead Trojans to the gallon of booze.
 
2012-02-05 08:02:30 AM
If they did that on a much bigger, national scale, and the numbers were vastly different, it might possibly mean something....
 
2012-02-05 08:09:36 AM
AaronSynn: If they did that on a much bigger, national scale, and the numbers were vastly different, it might possibly mean something....

I'd actually be interested in seeing larger scale versions of this, either with a great number of arrests in 2011, or pulling back and looking at 2000-2010.
 
2012-02-05 08:11:15 AM
Glad I'm a Sagittarius.
 
2012-02-05 08:29:18 AM
I'm disappointed with the Scorpios. We're supposed to be the scum of the zodiac.
 
2012-02-05 08:31:02 AM
img.photobucket.com
 
2012-02-05 08:39:11 AM
As a graduate student in math and statistics, I'm calling bullshiat on this. The sample size was too small to make such a broad generalization. If they did it on a statistically significant sample, like 50,000 or something, then I will bet a paycheck that there is no difference at all across the zodiacal signs.
 
2012-02-05 08:50:30 AM
Mugato: I'm disappointed with the Scorpios. We're supposed to be the scum of the zodiac.

Geminis are supposed to be "social butterflies" and have many friends and enjoy parties...OH yeah, I'll be social...alone, in front of a computer, typing to other computer bound introverts....
 
ZAZ [TotalFark]
2012-02-05 08:55:08 AM
Macular Degenerate: As a graduate student... I will bet a paycheck

You reminded me of an episode of Cheers where two people make a bet of a week's pay, and the loser turned out to make $1 per year.
 
2012-02-05 09:08:53 AM
I'm so glad secular Canada is using hard facts and science for their data.

/Cancer
 
2012-02-05 09:12:10 AM
Macular Degenerate: As a graduate student in math and statistics, I'm calling bullshiat on this. The sample size was too small to make such a broad generalization. If they did it on a statistically significant sample, like 50,000 or something, then I will bet a paycheck that there is no difference at all across the zodiacal signs.

Some signs are going to have a larger portion of the population in them. Some months have more births than others since we are not evenly distributed. That would need to be taken into effect too.
 
2012-02-05 09:28:19 AM
Time to put "do not commit a crime today" in every horoscope.
 
2012-02-05 09:36:12 AM
This angers me. But not as much as when they use a psychic to solve crimes.
 
2012-02-05 09:51:57 AM
Cthulhu_is_my_homeboy: doglover: That's because Aries was the god of war. If you know that, and everyone tells you "You are an Aries." eventually you'll get combative.

Aries =/= Ares.

Even the dumbass astrologer in the article got those mixed up...


Actually no.

Aries' regent planet is Mars. Guess who Mars is?

*snatch*
 
2012-02-05 09:54:32 AM
Oh and to the people wondering if there's a true relation:

NO. Correlation doesn't mean causation.

And there will almost always be a sign that has more cases and a sign that has less cases.

If you split it by year, you'll probably have a new arrested prone sign every year.

You'd maybe have a point if you do like 50-60 years and every single time or most of the time Aries, or whatever, was the highest sign.
 
2012-02-05 09:57:40 AM
FunkOut: Mugato: I'm disappointed with the Scorpios. We're supposed to be the scum of the zodiac.

Geminis are supposed to be "social butterflies" and have many friends and enjoy parties...OH yeah, I'll be social...alone, in front of a computer, typing to other computer bound introverts....


Since you're a Gemini, we should expect the unexpected from you.
 
2012-02-05 10:01:42 AM
Macular Degenerate:
As a graduate student in math and statistics, I'm calling bullshiat on this. The sample size was too small to make such a broad generalization. If they did it on a statistically significant sample, like 50,000 or something, then I will bet a paycheck that there is no difference at all across the zodiacal signs.

Ya think? I mean, as a biologist, science in the news generally makes me want to drink myself to sleep, but you guys must have it so much worse.
 
2012-02-05 10:13:11 AM
In the cardiology literature, ISIS 2 if memory serves, they did a post hoc analysis of cardiac event rates that showed significant differences between some of the signs as a way to point out the dangers of subgroup analysis set up after a study has been performed.
 
2012-02-05 10:30:42 AM
Yeah! Aries! WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO! #1!!!!
 
2012-02-05 10:34:15 AM
There are health probabilities related to birth date - winter births being more likely to result in a kid with a medical problem down the line. I forget the details, and in fact most of the generalities... except that while small, the effect WAS statistically significant.

I could see a weak chain from birth date to health issues to mental issues to criminal behaviour being possible.
 
2012-02-05 10:52:08 AM
Unsung_Hero: There are health probabilities related to birth date - winter births being more likely to result in a kid with a medical problem down the line. I forget the details, and in fact most of the generalities... except that while small, the effect WAS statistically significant.

I could see a weak chain from birth date to health issues to mental issues to criminal behaviour being possible.


But Aries is in the spring, not winter.

Plus that stat would only apply to countries/areas with visible wintertime. Winter births from Texas, Florida and California surely are unaffected by this.
 
2012-02-05 11:25:06 AM
Surprised Pisces isn't the most criminal. Always up to something fishy, and I don't mean the muffdiving kind.
 
2012-02-05 11:33:38 AM
DO NOT WANT Poster Girl: [R.app GUI 1.43 (5989) x86_64-apple-darwin9.8.0]

I really, really have to start playing with R.

Point me in a direction?
 
2012-02-05 11:41:50 AM
rocky_howard: Unsung_Hero: There are health probabilities related to birth date - winter births being more likely to result in a kid with a medical problem down the line. I forget the details, and in fact most of the generalities... except that while small, the effect WAS statistically significant.

I could see a weak chain from birth date to health issues to mental issues to criminal behaviour being possible.

But Aries is in the spring, not winter.

Plus that stat would only apply to countries/areas with visible wintertime. Winter births from Texas, Florida and California surely are unaffected by this.


Come live here, then tell me a Canadian March is spring... Anyway, isn't winter more or less the first quarter? Oct-Dec is fall.

Though certainly the seasonal health effects I mentioned would be limited to places with the required seasons.
 
2012-02-05 12:16:08 PM
Lol police math. They didn't even check the distribution of birthdays in the full population.
 
2012-02-05 12:40:07 PM
DO NOT WANT Poster Girl: [R.app GUI 1.43 (5989) x86_64-apple-darwin9.8.0]

>library(outliers)

> signs
> shapiro.test(signs)

Shapiro-Wilk normality test

data: signs
W = 0.9509, p-value = 0.6502


Normally distributed.



> mean(signs)
[1] 166.0833
> sd(signs)
[1] 21.13359

> dnorm(209, mean=166, sd=21.13)
[1] 0.002380873
> dnorm(139, mean=166, sd=21.13)
[1] 0.008345574


On the tails of their own distribution.

Are they really outliers?



> grubbs.test(signs, type=11)

Grubbs test for two opposite outliers

data: signs
G = 3.3123, U = 0.4707, p-value = 0.6774
alternative hypothesis: 139 and 209 are outliers


Nope.

They don't appear to be extraordinary.


I was gonna come in and do that stats if someone else didn't get to it first.
Junk farking science again.

Thank you for your hard work.

-R
 
2012-02-05 01:29:15 PM
Macular Degenerate: As a graduate student in math and statistics, I'm calling bullshiat on this. The sample size was too small to make such a broad generalization. If they did it on a statistically significant sample, like 50,000 or something, then I will bet a paycheck that there is no difference at all across the zodiacal signs.

You should not bet your pay without stipulating that there be a control group of random citizens who were not arrested in the same area. I don't expect that they will be evenly distributed either.
 
2012-02-05 01:40:54 PM
this is the new basis for one of my pet discriminations. i will argue this is true at every party i go to for the rest of my life.
 
2012-02-05 01:50:09 PM
minitrue noram: this is the new basis for one of my pet discriminations. i will argue this is true at every party i go to for the rest of my life.

So, you check pet horoscopes? (new window)
 
2012-02-05 02:11:20 PM
My father was a Sergeant with the RCMP, and is an Aries, so this amuses me greatly.
 
2012-02-05 02:14:22 PM
Sagittarius and been arrested.

How does that work?
 
2012-02-05 02:42:12 PM
Mugato: I'm disappointed with the Scorpios. We're supposed to be the scum of the zodiac.

I thought the same thing, but we're also better crimin
als. we just get caught less often.
 
ZAZ [TotalFark]
2012-02-05 03:02:51 PM
The age you start school depends on your birthday. You could start 1st grade at 6 years and 9 months or 5 years and 9 months if your birthday is on January 1 or December 31. Many things could follow from that. Are you the biggest guy in your class or the smallest?
 
2012-02-05 03:49:33 PM
ZAZ: The age you start school depends on your birthday. You could start 1st grade at 6 years and 9 months or 5 years and 9 months if your birthday is on January 1 or December 31. Many things could follow from that. Are you the biggest guy in your class or the smallest?

I would be very surprised if there was even a weak correlation between relative age by grade year and adult criminality.
 
2012-02-05 04:16:07 PM
media.comicvine.com

ARRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRIEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEES!
 
2012-02-05 05:02:08 PM
I'm one of the Pisces/Aries cusp people, but more on the Aries side, thus I have very little in common with my western astrological assignment. I decided to go by the Chinese chart (dog) since it's more me-ish.

/css
 
2012-02-05 05:57:56 PM
Even without fancy statistical analysis, experience tells me that these studies never match--the relationship of astrological signs to whatever is being measures--car accidents, tickets, crime, etc.--varies from one set of data to another. In other words, variation is normal and essentially random. There might be causes of bias in the original birth statistics--for example seasonal variations in the weather, dates which doctors and parents avoid for superstitious reasons or because of holidays, and so forth--but in the end, you'd need to do some sophisticated weighting to eliminate all these causes of variation.

In short, no two studies ever match--the police in another jurisdiction could do the same to their data and different signs would come out on top, on bottom or in the middle.

I did a "what star sign do you most ressemble?" test and found four birth signs that I ressembled more than my own, four birth signs I ressembled less and three star signs that were middling. In other words, randomness governs your relationship to your birth sign. I may have cheated a tiny bit on a few questions, but all in all, you shouldn't find such a high level of randomness if the birth sign really meant anything statistically significant.

That said, this particular study shows a good correlation to the "laid back" star signs and low arrest levels. Others would not. I'm not saying that your birth date doesn't have an effect on your life, personality and behaviour, just that this type of study is the wrong way to prove it, and in any case, it wouldn't have anything to do with the Zodiac if it does work. The Zodiac is an arbitrary interpretation made by connecting the dots (stars) in the sky and then creating a myth about the "image" that you create. These images are totally made up and very low resolution--a couple of dots is a fish or a crab? Not in my colouring and activity book.
 
2012-02-05 05:59:05 PM
As I always say about UFO photographs, fuzzy dots prove nothing!
 
2012-02-05 09:53:32 PM
steveGswine: DO NOT WANT Poster Girl: [R.app GUI 1.43 (5989) x86_64-apple-darwin9.8.0]

I really, really have to start playing with R.

Point me in a direction?


There are a lot of online tutorials, and specfic books written for learning stats and R - the big blue "R BOOK" is OK if you want a cookbook of things you can do with R code, but there's nothing really as good as having a problem and using R to figure it out.

Most important recommendation I can make to anyone who's used other programming languages and R is that there are only procedural similarities in the program (like loops and booleans etc), but the data structures underneath are very different than standard programming/scripting languages. For instance, there are no single characters or numbers in R, only vectors of length 1.

In R, the data type called "dataframe" is (like MS Excel), a collection of vectors (columns) of mixed type but identical length. There's another type, the matrix, which is not a data frame -- matrices are arrays of a single data type.

So -- find tutorials that start you out on the data types and don't skip the early chapters/examples. You can't understand R without understanding the underlying data models. After that it's really easy stuff.
 
2012-02-05 11:01:17 PM
weiner dog: I'm one of the Pisces/Aries cusp people, but more on the Aries side, thus I have very little in common with my western astrological assignment. I decided to go by the Chinese chart (dog) since it's more me-ish.

/css


Any astrology is still retarded.
Think about it. Everyone born between date x and date y are automatically "vicious executive types bent on world domination". Right.

The Chinese one ascribes entire years' worth of children particular traits.
 
2012-02-07 04:51:06 PM
I find it pretty funny that they found a guy named 'Dr. Doob' to comment on this. Who happens to be a professor of criminology.
 
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