The score is tied, bottom of the ninth. Time for the Big One. - Goose

/oh wait, wrong movie.
//but it's gonna be big.And bad.

So 4 years until subby's Mom falls out of her chair?

/got nothin'

What is the origin of this horrific trend in "science" to use computers as prediction-of-doom tools?

Science is not about prediction, it's about asking the right question to get a valuable answer about the universe.

These "scientists" who profess to know what is going to happen are snake-oil-salesmen.

Demetrius: OH, NO...THERE GOES TOKYO!

Go go Godzilla!!

/*guitar riff*

They've been culturally preparing for that for years. Close your eyes and randomly select 5 movies off of an Anime nerd's shelf and see for yourself.

At about the same time that California breaks off and slides into the Pacific?

He will destroy Tokyo! Oh, noes!

Magorn: You think the Japanese are weird now? Trust me, you do NOT want to see them after another major disaster. By all accounts they were prefectly nice, normal, bloodthirsty xenophobes until the bombing pf Nagasaki and Hiroshima. Next thing you know the entire culture seem centered around it's giant-eyed schoolgirls, anthropomorhic kitties and tentacle rape.

Yeah, the tentacle rape thing isn't all that recent.

...wait is Dream of the Fisherman's Wife SFW? Well, not taking any chances so here's a link instead. Link (new window)

You've been warned.

My money is on an erotic tentacle attack.

Oh Science...you're so cute. Don't worry Tokyo, God told me you'll be just fine.

Zombie attack?

Scientists? No, not even close, this is about Seismologist you know the ones Anonymous pickets.

Super Science Ninja Team Gatchaman will save the day.

Or Astro Boy. Take your pick.

Or they could go back to their warlike ways and invade China again.

Akira? We're going to have Neo Tokyo?

I look forward to the influx of Japanese refugee hotties fleeing to America seeking America males for marriage for security and protection.

/no make me a sammich

Big Man On Campus: "These "scientists" who profess to know what is going to happen are snake-oil-salesmen."

Sure, anyone claiming they know precisely *when* something is going to occur is almost certainly a charlatan.
But that's not the same thing as writing a paper that says you have a decent guess as to when things are probable to occur, while offering error bars, data, methods and simulation up for critical review.

Big Man On Campus: What is the origin of this horrific trend in "science" to use computers as prediction-of-doom tools?

Science is not about prediction, it's about asking the right question to get a valuable answer about the universe.

These "scientists" who profess to know what is going to happen are snake-oil-salesmen.

Science seems to have different definitions for different people. Someone else on Fark had a different view on the definition of science a few days ago. Years ago I read about Whey once being a waste product of some industry. then uses were found for it, giving it value. The author was so enthusiastic they rolled that into being their definition of science: to find uses for waste material.

It does seem to make sense that Science be used to chart probability of occurrence based upon past performance (which I would not term a 'prediction'). Why not use available data and see what becomes of it.

PsyLord: At about the same time that California breaks off and slides into the Pacific?

At least then we will have Otisville!

Isn't the Hayward fault on the same 30yr/98%/7.0+ warning?

We need to shake up the Earth and let it know who's in charge! Occupy the Mantle!!!

I knew Barugon would come back.

Oh Tokyo -- I never can sleep in your arms
Mind keeps on ringing like a fire alarm
Me and all these other dice bouncing around in the cup
Did you have to show me that accident scene
Didn't I get enough shaking up?
Still I'm gonna miss you...

/Damn nature, you scary!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-ip-6Ozv6wg

Tokyo Love Song by the Arrogant Worms

amirsh_33: My money is on an erotic tentacle attack.

They are just thinking ahead. Mentally preparing themselves for the future.

When Cthulu rises from the deep and makes us all his biatches, only one culture is going to actually enjoy it.

amirsh_33: My money is on an erotic tentacle attack.

You would like Rift.

WizardofToast: Akira? We're going to have Neo Tokyo?

Canada! Kaneda!

The best illustration of what might happen with this level of quake is to look at Kyoto a few years ago. A good bit of damage, but nothing that couldn't be adjusted for in a fairly short period of time.

Now, if it becomes as big as last years quake...

Broktun: PsyLord: At about the same time that California breaks off and slides into the Pacific?

At least then we will have Otisville!

Full court shot at the buzzer to secure the win. This thread is over. Hit the showers, everybody!

Another Government Employee: The best illustration of what might happen with this level of quake is to look at Kyoto a few years ago. A good bit of damage, but nothing that couldn't be adjusted for in a fairly short period of time.

Now, if it becomes as big as last years quake...

Yeah, you might as well pretty much write off Japan for at least a decade.

Big Man On Campus: Science is not about prediction,

What? To the contrary, in a theoretical sense, predictions of natural phenomena are routinely used to verify the correctness and completeness of scientific theories. The current search for the Higgs boson (as predicted by the Standard Model), gravity waves (as predicted by the theory of general relativity), and the future trend for climate change, as predicted by current climate models - these are some obvious, well known examples. I wonder if you want to tell any of those people they aren't doing real science.

In a more practical sense, once a model has been reasonably confirmed, it can be used to make predictions with estimable degrees of probability. Though it is certainly true that science is not only about prediction, predictions are very much a part of, and a goal of, science.

Big Man On Campus: What is the origin of this horrific trend in "science" to use computers as prediction-of-doom tools?

Science is not about prediction, it's about asking the right question to get a valuable answer about the universe.

These "scientists" who profess to know what is going to happen are snake-oil-salesmen.

And until you know all the variables, you'd go with the odds, wouldn't you?

/everything is about odds, even the things of which we are most certain. Those ones are just particularly good odds.

Well, it snowed in Seattle, and WE survived, so I guess it's Japan's turn to show what THEY'RE made of....

If its all correct and we are all wrong, the world ends this year slightly before christmas, so this becomes entirely mute. California sliding into the ocean will be a wonderful thing to behold before we all die

KatjaMouse: They've been culturally preparing for that for years. Close your eyes and randomly select 5 movies off of an Anime nerd's shelf and see for yourself.

Exactly. You thought those were just regular tourists? Nope, they've been looking for places to move for years and just waiting for the final signs to be made clear.

Dee Snarl: Well, it snowed in Seattle, and WE survived, so I guess it's Japan's turn to show what THEY'RE made of....

You peeps in Washington state are complete pussies

/Montanan next door making fun of you

Mutt Farkinov: Broktun: PsyLord: At about the same time that California breaks off and slides into the Pacific?

At least then we will have Otisville!

Full court shot at the buzzer to secure the win. This thread is over. Hit the showers, everybody!


I vote for it being done in one

Fista-Phobia: [antinorm.zenblue.net image 200x150]

Forgive me for being dense, but I don't know who this is or what the reference is supposed to be? *Self-Effacing Admittion of Pop Culture Ignorance*

Brunette Farkette: [travelingwithjim.files.wordpress.com image 500x376]
He will destroy Tokyo! Oh, MY!

FTFY

Yasunori Katō finally gets his act together. He is such a procrastinator.

done in one.

Science is not about prediction, it's about asking the right question to get a valuable answer about the universe.


I often use the fact that science is used for prediction to show people that creationism is not science. Being able to make predictions (with the necessary qualifiers) is one of the basic purposes of science. We use the ballistics equations to determine the path of unpowered objects through the air. Those equations accurately predict where the object will be. If the predictions are not correct, something is wrong with your theory. Creationism, if it predicts anything, predicts that nothing will change. Since that is provably false, there is something wrong with creationism as a scientific theory.

These "scientists" who profess to know what is going to happen are snake-oil-salesmen.

If you read the article you know that they are scientists who made probabilistic predictions based on the statistics of previous occurrences modified by the changes to the fault line due to the 9.0 earthquake last year. They make their predictions in an appropriate manner. If they had said that a 7.0 quake would hit June 21 at 12:31 PM then I'd agree with you, but saying that there is a good possibility of a moderate sized quake in a quake-prone area within the next 4 years is hardly snake oil. Stating the obvious is closer to it, but statistics is like that.

What is the origin of this horrific trend in "science" to use computers as prediction-of-doom tools?

So you'd be happier if they used chalkboards? Numerical modeling is where many of the predictions we see are coming from. This requires each point in the studied volume have calculations based on scientific laws made for every time step. This take horrendous numbers of calculations and computers are the only way to do it. That the calculations spell doom is the fault of neither the computer nor the model. It is rarely the fault of the scientist, unless they purposefully skew the input data. Mostly it is the fault of the reporter trying to sensationalize the results in order to sell papers. Farkers then take this and run with it. This article is a perfect example.
Scientist: This active quake area is likely to have a quake in the next 4 years
Reporter: Tokyo to have big quake soon!
Farker: OMG! OMG! Tokyo is DOOOOOooooooommmmmeeeeddd!

A Terrible Human

Dude, that was classic! You get +1!!!

NotARocketScientist: I often use the fact that science is used for prediction to show people that creationism is not science.

You, Gould and Buckland man; you, Gould and Buckland.