538 is projecting Gingrich favored to win now: Link (new window)

That we even before last night, and I think most think Gingrich did better than Romney last night. We might look back at that tax returns question as the turning point in Romney's campaign if somehow he does lose to Newt.

Unless Santorum pulls off some surprise and gets a lot more right wing Christian votes in the North of the state and drops Romney to 3rd (which, while polls are not showing it, Santorum was also basically 7-8 points behind Romney in the last polls before Iowa, and he basically got every undecided), I don't see him being able to make many strides unless he pulls off a stunner in Florida.

Paul will just stick around to be a pest if nothing else.

Assuming it goes Gingrich, Romney, Santorum/Paul Saturday, you'll have essentially this so far:

Romney: 1st (Tie), 1st, 2nd
Gingrich: 4th, 4th (Tie), 1st
Santorum: 1st (Tie), 4th (Tie), 3/4
Paul: 3rd, 2nd, 3/4

While in the "what have you done for me lately" department, Gingrich will have that 1st in his pocket. He'll also have the "historically S.C. has picked the nominee since 1980, where as Iowa & NH have not been that accurate" fact. How that plays down into Florida, who knows. But, Romney will still have two 1st's and a 2nd, and nobody else has been 1 or 2 in all 3 so far. But, in the end, unless something surprising happens, I think it is basically Gingrich vs. Romney going into the Feb contests and then Super Tuesday.

Ron Paul is the Antichrist!?

Oh. Anarchist.

Still, you can see where I might have gone wrong.

dletter: Unless Santorum pulls off some surprise

Really unlikely. Gingrich is winning Romney support and more coalescing the anti-Romney group.

GAT_00: dletter: Unless Santorum pulls off some surprise

Really unlikely. Gingrich is less winning Romney support and more coalescing the anti-Romney group.

Changing the way I worded it and lost the key word.

GAT_00: dletter: Unless Santorum pulls off some surprise

Really unlikely. Gingrich is winning Romney support and more coalescing the anti-Romney group.

Plus it is quite possible Gingrich pulls in the majority of Perry's 4-6%, which might just be enough to tip it over the top.

Can somebody catch me up on what "insanity" went on last night? I heard about Gingrich being all pissy about the moderator asking him questions about his past wives, but other than that what did I miss?

Philip Francis Queeg: That Newt Farking Gingrich might actually get the nomination is just astounding to me. How is it that this disgraced, failed, hack has any support at all?

I honestly do not know. My aunt is actually excited about Gingrich. I really need to sit down with her and ask her why. It's like she completely forgot about 1998.

I've heard a number of people say stuff like, "Newt will be able to bring people in Congress together to get things done."

Newt Gingrich. Bring Congresspeople together. Really.

The last time Newt brought Congresspeople together on an issue, they kicked his ass out of his Speaker position.

Next week it'll be RON PAUL for the "Anyone but Romney" candidate? Or will it swing back to Santorum?

All I want for the Feast of Baculus of Sorrento is a three-way-plus floor fight at the GOP convention.

DarnoKonrad: I don't know what to make of this anymore, but I still maintain the sooner we get to the general election the better. Right now this is just free publicity for the Republcian party while energizing their party base.

Can you think of a better energizer for the Democratic base than a Newt Gingrich nomination? Because I sure as hell can't.

pope183: Gingrich's attack on media for his sexual indiscretion leads to rise in polls


why those dirty republican freaks !

I just can't believe that this is reflective of the real world. This is the right-wingiest of the right wing in South Carolina. One state. There is no way you can tell me that the rest of the US actually buys into this masterful bullshiat that Gingrich is slinging. Especially since the really juicy stuff about Newt probably hasn't come out yet.