PC sales have already been trending downward and will most likely continue to do so. For some people phones and tablets are as much PC as they need.

Not for the sort of people who bother to comment on a story in the geek tab, mind you, but for some people, yes.

Treygreen13: In a viewpoint the author admits is "extremist," an industry analyst believes that if iOS and Android devices are considered to be substitutes for personal computers, then not only is the latter's market share going to dip below 50 percent, but collapse is also imminent.

Finland-based Horace Dediu, who runs Asymco, which on LinkedIn is self-described as "a company selling software development and consulting services for companies interested in deploying mobile applications"

Come on, guys, you need to at least check to see if the ridiculous argument being made is just shilling for their company.

You're literally publishing an ad for this guy's company.

Winner winner chicken dinner

Can it play Skyrim with ultra detail settings on a 32" screen? Where do I plug in my mouse?

dletter: I agree with the dock system sentiment.... if your phone had 8GB Ram, 128-256 GB hard drive, and the docking sentiment, then, I agree.

Although, while geeks/professionals have dual/triple monitors and need high end systems for gaming, or advanced CAD/graphic drawing, the majority of people still basically use computers to play "simple" games, browse the web, read their email, and make simple words/excel documents. A tablet with a bluetooth mouse & keyboard to use at home will fit that bill well enough.

So, no, for "high-end" computer users (I would guess 20-25% of people), they won't be replacing their desktops anytime soon... I can see the bulk of people trying to minimize.

Well said.

I typically recommend a tablet of some kind for all my non-technical relations, even those I previously had downsized to laptops or netbooks. Nearly everything they do is media consumption, at which tablets excel.

OTOH, the only time my gaming rig is going anywhere is when I get a new one. :)

Misleading graph is misleading. There's a logarithmic scale on the y-axis, making it look like everything else is remotely close to PC sales.

Decent Android phone: $400-600 unlocked
Modern gaming capable PC: $500

Hmmmm.

PCs will be around until the 100G Brainlink.

BullBearMS: PC sales have already been trending downward and will most likely continue to do so. For some people phones and tablets are as much PC as they need.

Not for the sort of people who bother to comment on a story in the geek tab, mind you, but for some people, yes.

Indeed. Tinkerers and neckbeards don't want to entertain the idea, but the answer to the question posed in the headline is "Quite possibly"

It's not going to happen tomorrow or anything, but PC sales are declining and mobile devices like phones and tablets are surging. Technologies will improve on already ubiquitous things like bluetooth for easy input docking. Companies are starting to roll out high speed wireless display protocols that could conceivably pair with a supporting device on any size screen you want.

Back in the late 70's, if you purchased an Apple II you were lightly derided and scoffed at by mainframe operators. They would comment that it was a "cute toy" but you couldn't do any "real work" on it. Desktops are a fun distraction, but there was no way they would be deployed en masse.

Do these arguments sound familiar?

You don't have to like it, but if you work in IT you're going to have to accept that this is the way wind is blowing. Desktops are now 40 year old technology. Take a peek at what the younger generation is doing. It's about small and mobile. Laptops, tablets, and smart phones are the rage right now. If you stand outside of a high school (as I so often do looking for love) the first thing you see the majority of those kids do is pull out their cell/smartphone. This is the technology these kids are growing up with and will be using when they start entering the work force.

adm_crunch: Can it play Skyrim with ultra detail settings on a 32" screen? Where do I plug in my mouse?

You can play a lot of high-res games using OnLive, and you plug in your mouse with a micro-usb adapter or just use a bluetooth mouse.

But the question is kind of silly, since Windows is trending more towards tablets. They're both kind of driving towards the same space. Personally, I would love to have a quad core phone that could dock into a tablet which could in turn dock into a keyboard to become a laptop, but I'd probably still want a pc at home to remote log in to.

With all the predictions of the PC dying over the past 40 years or so, I think we should rename PCs to "The Black Knight"
Bloody things never seem to die regardless of how many mortal wounds they've been said to have.

I have a PC, a laptop, a tablet, an ereader, and 2 smartphones (one for wife and one for I). I could forsee being rid of the laptop eventually in favor of the tablet. The ereader is already obsoleted by the tablet. My PC is essential, bar none.

downstairs: BullBearMS: PC sales have already been trending downward and will most likely continue to do so. For some people phones and tablets are as much PC as they need.

Not for the sort of people who bother to comment on a story in the geek tab, mind you, but for some people, yes.

Well a few things: saying the "death" of the PC is just silly.

Secondly, I gotta believe PC sales are trending down in part because there really isn't any more power out there for the average user. My dad's experience on his PC from 5 years ago isn't going to be much different with a new computer from 2012. All he does is email/web/music/photos.

Back 10-ish years ago, there was a noticable increase in speed/power with each new set of hardware... noticable even to the least savvy users.

I've had the same desktop computer since 2007 (although I upgraded the OS to Win7). Between 1990 and that time, I was upgrading bits and pieces every year or two. Now, all of those dollars on PC upgrades are spent on telephone upgrades and new gaming consoles when they come out.

Well, going off this chart, it's already killed the iPhone, iPad, and all Mac computers, so Apple must be really strapped for cash... right? Hello? Is this thing on?

But seriously, no. The only way phones are going to kill PCs is when you can hook a keyboard, mouse, and monitor up to them - at which points they'll be PCs, albeit PCs with touchscreen cases.

Slightly off topic, but it applies to tech journalism too:


/hot

The dock solution is probably where it's at. Monitors, keyboards/mice, etc are all just interfacing with the actual computing device. It will probably get to a point where you can pack as much computing and storage into a mobile device as you can a desktop. Or at least, use the desktop to augment for storage. I can see a future where mobile devices are the true "computer" and a desktop is simply a dock that allows for bigger and multiple screens, and better input devices. But extend that past PCs.

Standardize the docking system for all mobile devices, and you can interface them with anything. Pull you phone out of the standard desktop dock, get in your car and plug it in the standard car dock. Now all of your data is accessible through your car's interface. Get to work, and plug it in a music dock or even another PC dock. Want to watch movies? Plug the phone into a TV dock. Use the mobile device as the "core" to all sorts of external uses, from PCs and laptops, to car stereos, TVs, etc. One mobile unit with control, processing, and storage for all of theses things. You just have to plug it in to get the functionality. If you want more than one, get more than one, and they can become a network, all running the same OS and having intra-connectivity. The device powering your PC is running the same stuff as the device in your hand and the one in your laptop or even car. The laptop and the PC are really just I/O docks for the real system. All are interchangeable and synced. Make them work together and you can double your "PCs" power by plugging two of them in together. Or 3, 4, 5 etc. Add more core devices to get more computing power. Unplug one and take it with you, while it remains synced with the rest.

Windows is "trying" to get to this point with Windows 8 being for PC and mobile. Other companies have tried an infant form of this as well. Wasn't it Motorola who made a Table/Netbook that was just a dock for an Android phone? Google is also trying to work the other way by making Chrome OS for PCs. The framework is being built. But as others have said, right now, a handheld just cannot do what a desktop or laptop can. If that were to change, and it probably will. I can see a switch to using one device as the core, and what we currently see as separate devices (PCs, laptops, car stereos, TVs, cameras, etc) as just special docks which access the mobile core's systems for that particular application.

dletter: Juc: With all the predictions of the PC dying over the past 40 years or so, I think we should rename PCs to "The Black Knight"
Bloody things never seem to die regardless of how many mortal wounds they've been said to have.

40 years? Oh yes, I totally recall people in 1972 saying how the "PC" was going to die, considering we were 6-8 years away from even a reasonable number of people even slightly having Apple's, Commodore's, or something else in their home.

/I know you were overstating for effect, but, 40 is a bit ridiculous.

Eh I'm 30 and I've been hearing it as far back as I can remember, so I went for one more nice round number past 30. It's only a slight exaggeration if you compare it to say exaggerations regarding hunger.

Although I'd sure be something if someone DID manage to eat a horse in one sitting.

These things come in waves.

Right now, it's been rebranded as 'the cloud' - back in the day, it was 'dumb terminal'. Meaning, All your work would be done on the huge mainframe remotely hosted, and you'd just need a terminal to communicate and affect change on your stuffs.

That never really took off; the concept of 'physical ownership', of actually possessing the files you paid for on your very own system squashed the first push from IBM, Oracle and SUN to keep things remotely hosted.

Now we're on Cloud II. The freedom of having all your songs, data, and such 'at your fingertips' on 'every device'. This is exactly the same as the first 'dumb terminal' movement, only rebranded. In the absence of having truly jaw-dropping levels of storage and processing power (which today's upscale PCs and laptops have), the only way to push synchronized accessibility is through hosted storage; this gives the phones, MP3 players, etc. the illusion of having greater functionality, and of course, you're charged for it.

There's money to be made, and if I own a bunch of phones that almost can do all a PC can do, then I'll push for more market share and tell you your PC is doomed. I'll also push for the Cloud - because I can make money on storing your stuff and even better, chances are it's just loaned to you anyway - just ask Amazon when they wiped off a bunch of books from people's Kindles.

I can't ever see myself wanting to write anything of consequence on anything but a PC. Having to write papers on a smartphone? Kill me. Laptops almost cut it, but not quite.

I also like the almost-full sense of security of owning all the files that are important to me, and keeping them on my system. Floating around in the ether is fine for easily digestible trash; songs I don't really care about, movies that were a passing interest. But when it comes to stuff I love and/or regularly use, I'm happier knowing it's there on my drive, without having to go through two or three companies who might decide to change the content and licensing.

/Use your Computers and similar devices
//Don't let them use you.

doczoidberg: I cannot view porn on my phone with nearly as much satisfaction as I can on my PC....
Therefore, no -- the Android will not be replacing anything.

That's what android tablet are for.

Be sure to get the screen protector.

In a viewpoint the author admits is "extremist," an industry analyst believes that if iOS and Android devices are considered to be substitutes for personal computers, then not only is the latter's market share going to dip below 50 percent, but collapse is also imminent.

If I had a ten-foot cock then I'd've died of blood loss the first time I hit second base. And if my ears were solar sails I'd make Alpha Centauri by 2085.

Seriously though, that's the most ridiculous "if" I've ever seen outside a nursery rhyme. Windows 8 isn't anywhere remotely near release and it's already catching severe blowback for trying to use a smartphone interface for PCs. People sometimes have to write email as well as read it, or do extensive text editing.

MightyPez: If you stand outside of a high school (as I so often do looking for love) the first thing you see the majority of those kids do is pull out their cell/smartphone.

Yeah...as opposed to pulling out their desktops when they leave school?

Will 2012 be when idiots quit using "PC" to refer to 'Windows' when comparing operating systems?

0Icky0: MightyPez: If you stand outside of a high school (as I so often do looking for love) the first thing you see the majority of those kids do is pull out their cell/smartphone.

Yeah...as opposed to pulling out their desktops when they leave school?


I can't tell if you're trying to make a joke or genuinely missed the point.

The graph showing mobile devices taking up an ever-growing percentage of the computing market (displacing the poor TRS-80) is hugely misleading because it's scaled in percentages, but the computing market has not stayed at the same absolute size for the past forty years.

Right now, most of mobile computing is computing that would not have otherwise been done on desktop or notebook PCs; it is new. It is supplemental. It's not taking away from the PC market (not much, anyway).

Do I expect 'mobile' devices, or whatever they evolve into, to make up the majority of the market by the end of this decade? I do. But PCs will still be a close second then, and for decades after.

My almost elderly mother can barely turn on a modern television, and I have to show her how to use her email AGAIN every weekend. You expect her to figure out an Android smart-phone? I was happy she finally got a 1st generation RAZR that will at least reliably make phone calls. Of course I have to program all the numbers into it. With the boomer generation stuck with us another 20+ years, don't expect the PC to disappear any time soon.

"Will Palm OS be the death of Windows?"

MightyPez: Yeah...as opposed to pulling out their desktops when they leave school?
I can't tell if you're trying to make a joke or genuinely missed the point.

Your point was that you see a lot of kids pulling out smartphones when they leave school, therefore the desktop is dying?
Do you really think this is a valid sample to judge from?
How about following the schoolgirls home and looking at what is on their desk?
I pull out my smartphone all the time, and I've got two desktops, and a laptop.

0Icky0: Your point was that you see a lot of kids pulling out smartphones when they leave school, therefore the desktop is dying?
Do you really think this is a valid sample to judge from?
How about following the schoolgirls home and looking at what is on their desk?
I pull out my smartphone all the time, and I've got two desktops, and a laptop.


Ah, so the answer wasn't you were joking. You just missed the point completely.

The point is trends tend to follow what the younger generation is exposed to and what they adopt. 30 years ago it was the personal PC. You no longer had to lease time on a mainframe, you could do what you wanted. In the early 90's a family would (generally) share a desktop and maybe have expensive internet access. Now everyone has a personal little information device in their pockets at all time. If a teenager has a computer to themselves, I'll wager dollar to donuts it's a laptop. I've seen my executives at my business completely abandoned desktops. They may have a laptop at their desk, but generally travel with a tablet or smartphone.

And you have 2 desktops. Congratulations. I have 2 as well, and one more at work. But the move in the last decade has been about smaller and more mobile. When you have a generation growing up with smartphones, tablets, and ultrabooks, they are not suddenly going to anchor themselves to a giant box because it plays Skyrim better.

This isn't hoping for the demise of the desktop. I love and use mine all the time. But to not say things are moving to smaller and more mobile is myopically shortsighted. I have no idea if the desktop will actually die. But I'm pretty sure in a decade I'll be working on far less of them.

But then again I guess there are still technically VCR repairmen around, so hope isn't lost for the desktop either.

MightyPez: When you have a generation growing up with smartphones, tablets, and ultrabooks, they are not suddenly going to anchor themselves to a giant box because it plays Skyrim better.

True. I was merely questioning your observation that pulling out smartphones when leaving school is a valid observational sample to judge from.
That's like saying the necktie is dead because you were at a football game with 40,000 people and didn't see any fans wearing neckties.

Drakuun: Will 2012 be when idiots quit using "PC" to refer to 'Windows' when comparing operating systems?

If it's the year the Mac OS is available on non Apple machines. Windows can be installed on PC's from most any manufacturer, or as a separate install for those who build their own. Macintosh cannot. The Mac machine/OS are a package deal. A HP, Dell, Toshiba, or home built PC can come with Windows, you can put it on yourself, or you can install a different OS like Linux. Using the term PC just means it's not a Mac OS/machine proprietary package.

0Icky0: MightyPez: When you have a generation growing up with smartphones, tablets, and ultrabooks, they are not suddenly going to anchor themselves to a giant box because it plays Skyrim better.

True. I was merely questioning your observation that pulling out smartphones when leaving school is a valid observational sample to judge from.
That's like saying the necktie is dead because you were at a football game with 40,000 people and didn't see any fans wearing neckties.

That's a very bad analogy. Particularly because I never claimed the desktop was dead. The whole point of the schoolyard observation was to show you have an entire generation of people growing up on a technology that has only recently been widely adopted by the business community to supplement their existing equipment. As the technology improves and these people that have been using it their entire lives enter the work force, they are going to have the ingrained skills to apply it to more aspects of business and personal lives. At some point it may even come down to CFO's saying "If these people are doing most of their work on a tablet/phone, why are we paying all this upkeep on desktops? Cut the redundancy."

That's where things begin to change. When the bean counters start looking at the RoI of legacy tech.