I can't wait for some huckabuck to tie the confederate flag millstone to Romney's neck.

No way Romney wins SC.

Unless Romney starts to actually win some primaries with an absolute majority instead of a plurality, there's going to be a brokered convention because Romney only has 35% of the delegates.

And, even the communication school dropouts that write the words that the pretty news-talking people read between the pharmaceutical ads on TV will eventually figure this out. And when FOX News finally points out that Romney isn't actually winning any of these primaries, but is instead just the first loser, I honestly think we'll start to see more people try to join the Republican race.

And at that point, I think the the Republican party will go from "clown college" to "Homer Simpson riding a tiny bicycle at clown college." We'll have to burn a lot more than the seat.

dixiecrat dixiecrat
romney sucks nibong cack
give me newt
he's not near
I'll smoke his pole
and suck his rear
look out
here comes dixiecrat

(sung to spiderman theme)

The Larch: Unless Romney starts to actually win some primaries with an absolute majority instead of a plurality, there's going to be a brokered convention because Romney only has 35% of the delegates.

And, even the communication school dropouts that write the words that the pretty news-talking people read between the pharmaceutical ads on TV will eventually figure this out. And when FOX News finally points out that Romney isn't actually winning any of these primaries, but is instead just the first loser, I honestly think we'll start to see more people try to join the Republican race.

And at that point, I think the the Republican party will go from "clown college" to "Homer Simpson riding a tiny bicycle at clown college." We'll have to burn a lot more than the seat.

People keep saying this, but I think it is simply a fantasy. There will never be a brokered convention again. No one, but no one, is going to want to see a brokered convention payed out live in front of the TV cameras. The party, and the money folks behind the Party will force a decision long before the convention. The losers will be forced to quit.

The Larch: Unless Romney starts to actually win some primaries with an absolute majority instead of a plurality, there's going to be a brokered convention because Romney only has 35% of the delegates.

My understanding is that the GOP switched from proportional delegates to winner-take-all this year to avoid another McCain. I could of course be mistaken.

The Larch: Unless Romney starts to actually win some primaries with an absolute majority instead of a plurality, there's going to be a brokered convention because Romney only has 35% of the delegates.

And, even the communication school dropouts that write the words that the pretty news-talking people read between the pharmaceutical ads on TV will eventually figure this out. And when FOX News finally points out that Romney isn't actually winning any of these primaries, but is instead just the first loser, I honestly think we'll start to see more people try to join the Republican race.

And at that point, I think the the Republican party will go from "clown college" to "Homer Simpson riding a tiny bicycle at clown college." We'll have to burn a lot more than the seat.

Some (I'm too lazy to look up which ones) of those primaries are first-past-the-post-winner-take-all primaries, so even if you only have a plurality you still win those states delegates. The GOP set up their primary system like that to avoid brokered conventions.

The Larch: Unless Romney starts to actually win some primaries with an absolute majority instead of a plurality, there's going to be a brokered convention because Romney only has 35% of the delegates.

And, even the communication school dropouts that write the words that the pretty news-talking people read between the pharmaceutical ads on TV will eventually figure this out. And when FOX News finally points out that Romney isn't actually winning any of these primaries, but is instead just the first loser, I honestly think we'll start to see more people try to join the Republican race.

And at that point, I think the the Republican party will go from "clown college" to "Homer Simpson riding a tiny bicycle at clown college." We'll have to burn a lot more than the seat.

with the exception of the early ones most conventions are winner take all for delegates to avoid a brokered convention. All Romney needs to do is continue outspending his opponents and he'll be the nominee.

Philip Francis Queeg: The Larch: Unless Romney starts to actually win some primaries with an absolute majority instead of a plurality, there's going to be a brokered convention because Romney only has 35% of the delegates.

And, even the communication school dropouts that write the words that the pretty news-talking people read between the pharmaceutical ads on TV will eventually figure this out. And when FOX News finally points out that Romney isn't actually winning any of these primaries, but is instead just the first loser, I honestly think we'll start to see more people try to join the Republican race.

And at that point, I think the the Republican party will go from "clown college" to "Homer Simpson riding a tiny bicycle at clown college." We'll have to burn a lot more than the seat.

People keep saying this, but I think it is simply a fantasy. There will never be a brokered convention again. No one, but no one, is going to want to see a brokered convention payed out live in front of the TV cameras. The party, and the money folks behind the Party will force a decision long before the convention. The losers will be forced to quit.

The only exception to that would be if Ron Paul actually were able to win significant delegates. He's probably the only person the party would be incapable of forcing to back down. But I don't think Ron Paul is capable of ever winning a single state. Theres a much larger "Anyone but Paul" movement than there is "Anyone but Romney"

So let me get this straight. To shake things up in the GOP, instead of supporting the born-into-millions son of a government executive/business tycoon, they're going to support the born-into-millions son of a government executive/business tycoon?

Carth:
with the exception of the early ones most conventions primaries are winner take all for delegates to avoid a brokered convention. All Romney needs to do is continue outspending his opponents and he'll be the nominee.

Lost Thought 00: Theres a much larger "Anyone but Paul" movement than there is "Anyone but Romney"

And, perhaps more significantly, the "Anyone but Paul" movement is much more deeply ingrained in the GOP institutions and higherups than "Anyone but Romney".

Philip Francis Queeg: People keep saying this, but I think it is simply a fantasy. There will never be a brokered convention again. No one, but no one, is going to want to see a brokered convention payed out live in front of the TV cameras

My normally obnoxiously right-wing family has been dedicating most of their political nonsense on facebook to their dislike for Romney. He really isn't that popular amongst conservatives.

I will say that conservative voters, for all their "we want our candidate to stand on the issue!" are a bunch of wishy-washy people, based on the last month of polling.

I'm not saying they are hypocritical...but...

The Larch: Philip Francis Queeg: People keep saying this, but I think it is simply a fantasy. There will never be a brokered convention again. No one, but no one, is going to want to see a brokered convention payed out live in front of the TV cameras

[images.paraorkut.com image 300x348]

My point exactly. All settled behind the scenes before the convention.

Romney needs to solidify his ties with the conservative base by giving a speech at Bob Jones University.

Follow the lead of your more educated, skinnier, less diabetic, less HIV positive, higher earning, better insured peers.

The Larch: Unless Romney starts to actually win some primaries with an absolute majority instead of a plurality, there's going to be a brokered convention because Romney only has 35% of the delegates.

And, even the communication school dropouts that write the words that the pretty news-talking people read between the pharmaceutical ads on TV will eventually figure this out. And when FOX News finally points out that Romney isn't actually winning any of these primaries, but is instead just the first loser, I honestly think we'll start to see more people try to join the Republican race.

And at that point, I think the the Republican party will go from "clown college" to "Homer Simpson riding a tiny bicycle at clown college." We'll have to burn a lot more than the seat.

Uhhh...it happens this way every time. First few contests nobody gets a majority, but all the low level players use up all their money, and coming in 6th place repeatedly isn't bringing in more, so they drop out. By the time a few states have passed all but 2 or 3 major candidates are gone and the frontrunner starts getting majorities.

Mitt needs to eat some corn dogs.

Altair: No way Romney wins SC.

I take it you're referring to the primary here? He is still white, after all.

Carth: with the exception of the early ones most conventions are winner take all for delegates to avoid a brokered convention. All Romney needs to do is continue outspending his opponents and he'll be the nominee.

The new allocation rules say none of the states with contests before April can be winner-takes-all.* Even Super Tuesday is before April.

*Does not apply to the halved delegations of SC, FL.

Take it for what it is worth (next to nothing) but I know the Berkeley County republicans did a straw poll last week. Little more than 100 votes, but frothy won with 52%.

Never doubt SC's ability to go full retard.

Altair: No way Romney wins SC.

*[PrintScreen]*, Save.

jadedlee: Carth: with the exception of the early ones most conventions are winner take all for delegates to avoid a brokered convention. All Romney needs to do is continue outspending his opponents and he'll be the nominee.

The new allocation rules say none of the states with contests before April can be winner-takes-all.* Even Super Tuesday is before April.

*Does not apply to the halved delegations of SC, FL.

Interesting I didn't look into the new rules for 2012. Still Washington Post had an article today about why even with the new rules a brokered convention is unlikely. Link (new window)

Altair: No way Romney wins SC.

Are you willing to shave Romney's name into your chest hair if he does?

Altair: No way Romney wins SC.

Nate Silver currently has him with a 55% chance of winning (and that model doesn't take into account any possible additional bounce he gets out of his New Hampshire win yet).

sprawl15: Lost Thought 00: Theres a much larger "Anyone but Paul" movement than there is "Anyone but Romney"

And, perhaps more significantly, the "Anyone but Paul" movement is much more deeply ingrained in the GOP institutions and higherups than "Anyone but Romney".

And the "Anybody but Obama" movement is pretty damned strong as well. Lots of Republicans realize that a long primary season just helps Obama

Plus, it's Romney's "turn". He was second (well, probably more like third after Huckabee, who didn't run so it doesn't matter) in 2008, and the Republicans tend to pick the runner up last time.

I'm trying to figure out a plan for anybody else to win. Paul has a hard ceiling of about 25%. Romney probably has a hard ceiling of about 45% in a contested primary, but that means that Romney plus Paul will probably get at least 60% of the votes in almost every contest (possibly as much as 70%), preventing a social conservative like Santorum from getting more than 30-40%-plus Gingrich and maybe Perry are still alive and kicking, splitting that vote. If it was a true three way race by now, maybe the non-Paul/non-Romney candidate might have a distant chance, but it's not. Perry has money but no support; Santorum has support but no money. And Gingrich is busy running around setting everybody on fire, including himself. All three will drop out eventually, leaving behind Paul and not-Paul (that is, Romney), with not-Paul getting 75% of the vote in the later primaries.

I wish that Santorum would have a chance (so Obama could win about 43 states or so), but I can't see the path to get there for him. Obama will still beat Romney easily, though, and Gingrich is certainly helping Obama at this point.

Haven't we basically known this for months?
A) Romney will be the GOP candidate.
B) Romney is about as charismatic as John Kerry.

So I guess - it's not news, it's fark.

Geotpf: sprawl15: Lost Thought 00: Theres a much larger "Anyone but Paul" movement than there is "Anyone but Romney"

And, perhaps more significantly, the "Anyone but Paul" movement is much more deeply ingrained in the GOP institutions and higherups than "Anyone but Romney".

And the "Anybody but Obama" movement is pretty damned strong as well. Lots of Republicans realize that a long primary season just helps Obama

Honestly, I think a lot of the GOP in-crowd would prefer 4 more years of Obama to letting Romney be president. Romney as president would be entirely too ineffectual to change enough to sate the raging teabaggers who demand everything be fixed now. By losing, they get four more years of being able to blame the liberal media and have the out of saying that anything good that happens now is because they took the house in 2010.

sprawl15: Geotpf: sprawl15: Lost Thought 00: Theres a much larger "Anyone but Paul" movement than there is "Anyone but Romney"

And, perhaps more significantly, the "Anyone but Paul" movement is much more deeply ingrained in the GOP institutions and higherups than "Anyone but Romney".

And the "Anybody but Obama" movement is pretty damned strong as well. Lots of Republicans realize that a long primary season just helps Obama

Honestly, I think a lot of the GOP in-crowd would prefer 4 more years of Obama to letting Romney be president. Romney as president would be entirely too ineffectual to change enough to sate the raging teabaggers who demand everything be fixed now. By losing, they get four more years of being able to blame the liberal media and have the out of saying that anything good that happens now is because they took the house in 2010.

From a Republican perspective, Romney might be a flip flopping magic underwear wearing used car salesman, but he's not a Kenyan socialist atheist Muslim black guy, so if they have to choose between them, they will pick Romney. Now, some of them might just stay home and not bother to vote, but that probably depends on how much they hate Obama more than how much they like Romney.

Philip Francis Queeg: People keep saying this, but I think it is simply a fantasy. There will never be a brokered convention again. No one, but no one, is going to want to see a brokered convention payed out live in front of the TV cameras.

If there's no clear-cut winner between Romney and Santorum, the race may hinge on what is done by those with just a few delegates. I can see Paul staying in the race on general principles.
And Gingrich is the type of guy who would hurt his own party by forcing a brokered convention just out of spite for Romney.

just to be clear, if you are living up North you are just a Yankee

You are only a Damn Yankee if you:
1) are down here in the South
2) refuse to go home

/exception: The South ends at Tallahassee
//no exception for Northern Rednecks, stop sending them

somedude210: You seem to be missing Huntsman in that entire analysis

There's a bigger chance of Obama winning the Republican primary than Huntsman.

Geotpf: From a Republican perspective, Romney might be a flip flopping magic underwear wearing used car salesman, but he's not a Kenyan socialist atheist Muslim black guy, so if they have to choose between them, they will pick Romney.

For a lot of the people on the ground, sure, but I was talking about the establishment/party officials. What the teabaggers will do is anyone's guess.

Carth: jadedlee: Carth: with the exception of the early ones most conventions are winner take all for delegates to avoid a brokered convention. All Romney needs to do is continue outspending his opponents and he'll be the nominee.

The new allocation rules say none of the states with contests before April can be winner-takes-all.* Even Super Tuesday is before April.

*Does not apply to the halved delegations of SC, FL.

Interesting I didn't look into the new rules for 2012. Still Washington Post had an article today about why even with the new rules a brokered convention is unlikely. Link (new window)

Oh I wasn't suggesting it was likely, just... it would be awesome, so I'll hold on to whatever keeps that dream alive. Now which candidate can recite the best Hail Mary?

Mitt has always been Mr. Inevitable, so it's really all about how much rash, itch and irritation he has to endure along the way. There are few things money can't buy in politics, especially in the republican circus. It is fun to note, however, that Mitt didn't actually win Iowa, thanks to a reporting error, and it remains to be seen if that win will be corrected and marked Santorum in a week. So really, Mitt has only won New Hampshire, his backyard. Now he has to venture down into Bible-infested waters and claim that he's really one of them, even when he's not. Republicans are remarkably good at deep-throating lies forced upon them by their leaders, but that's not to say that they still don't have a gag reflex. And here comes Newt to get down on his knees and work as the fluffer. And he has his own film. There is joy in mudville!

I'm stocking up on popcorn.

neritz: salvador.hardin: just to be clear, if you are living up North you are just a Yankee

You are only a Damn Yankee if you:
1) are down here in the South
2) refuse to go home

/exception: The South ends at Tallahassee
//no exception for Northern Rednecks, stop sending them

As a Damn Yankee, I agree.

/10 years in a couple of days

I don't know where the south ends. I am in Gainesville and it is obviously in full effect here abouts.

/damn yankee

yert: neritz: salvador.hardin: just to be clear, if you are living up North you are just a Yankee

You are only a Damn Yankee if you:
1) are down here in the South
2) refuse to go home

/exception: The South ends at Tallahassee
//no exception for Northern Rednecks, stop sending them

As a Damn Yankee, I agree.

/10 years in a couple of days

I don't know where the south ends. I am in Gainesville and it is obviously in full effect here abouts.

/damn yankee

Yeah, I'd say it ends where I-75 and the FL Turnpike meet.

/tallahasseean
//it's like the south without all the derp