Meh. China's screwed. Is that news?

Wow, talk about twisting the evidence to make it support your argument. Also that's some really carefully cherry picked data to boot.

After the collapse, will we all start speaking different languages?

I think I speak for everyone here when I say correlation does not imply causation.

Cubansaltyballs: This isn't a surprise... just look at all those studies that show how owning a giant truck or corvette shrinks your penis.

Interesting analogy in thats pretty much what skyscraper construction represents, its a nation-state pissing contest, "oh look at what we can do, we have the tallest building now!" Don't think I've seen a single super-tall skyscraper where the economics of their construction didn't break down after a certain height, they stop being cost-effective and its done just for national pride. An economy willing to throw money away for this endevour are probably doing so elsewhere, so the whole economic house of cards eventually comes tumbling down.

Knock knock.

Who's there?

Correlation.

Oh, hi, Causality! Come on in!

In India, billionaire Mukesh Ambani built his own skyscraper in Mumbai - a 27-storey residence believed to be the world's most expensive home

The impending peasant uprising is going to be an interesting one.

greentea1985: However, the article does point out that skyscrapers require a lot of money and can be a symptom of misallocated money and priorities. Those often are causative to bubbles and crashes.

This. And also, since you're generally only going to build a skyscraper during a boom, they generally take a long time to plan and build, and crashes / recessions generally happen on a cyclical basis, it could be just a matter of timing. Kind of like how toast always lands butter-side down.

/Unless you don't butter the toast at all.
//Also, the plural of anecdote is not data.

Somebody needs to go learn what a "leading indicator" is.

This concept has been known at least as far back as Parkinson's Law. On the macro scale, economies don't change smoothly, and construction takes a long time. The enthusiasm and financial ability to begin a big project peaks with the economy, so construction of big projects invariably overshoots the peak and by the time they're done, you're invariably on the down side -- and what's worse, you're surrounded by the empty towers built by everybody else who started construction on the same high tide of optimism. See: Canary Wharf in London.

Incidentally, the same thing happens in housing, only more horizontally. At the top of the last bubble, builders around here were buying every buildable plot they could find at elevated prices. As the bubble burst, they were left with an inventory of completed and half-completed houses, and were actually advertising for sale the lots they hadn't broken ground on. (If I had the money, I would have bought empty lots at the bottom of the market as an investment. Unlike rental properties they are low maintenance, carry low property tax, and are easy to sell on when the next upward cycle comes along.)

Thought this was common knowledge. It's not always so much a "misallocation" which is a slippery thing to call, but empire building, hubris, and optimism. Any boom in office space in which the skyscraper is inevitably a part of is an expression of the feeling that the good times will keep rolling.



For example, Midland, Texas built a huge skyline during the Permian basin oil boom. It didn't last.

Man, this makes me want to blast some Bad Religion on the way home from work today.

Skyscrapers? Seems to me the big corporations all moved to 'campuses' a few years ago. There's very few businesses that actually need to be downtown, and typically that's only for access to things like the trading floor at the stock exchange. Anyone building a skyscraper in this day and age that is not a hotel is an idiot.

You would have thought mankind would have learned its lesson the first time:



/thy abode prices shall always increase

old news is the best news.

abb3w: I wonder what the economics were after construction of the Pyramids?

Which ones? Native American or Egyptian?

Shaggy_C: Skyscrapers? Seems to me the big corporations all moved to 'campuses' a few years ago. There's very few businesses that actually need to be downtown, and typically that's only for access to things like the trading floor at the stock exchange. Anyone building a skyscraper in this day and age that is not a hotel is an idiot.

It's more about networking (yes, there are still a few very lucrative jobs where you need to meet people face to face) that only a downtown area can facilitate, but yep, this is pretty much right.

abb3w: OK, that's kind of cool. Scary, but cool.

I wonder what the economics were after construction of the Pyramids?

The building of the Vatican correlates with the reformation of the Holy See.

Versailles, French revolution

A church in Spain and something. (I forget)

/DNRTFA

Once I built a tower to the sun
Of brick and rivet and lime
Once I built a tower, but now it's done.
Brother, can you spare a dime?

Blairr: abb3w: OK, that's kind of cool. Scary, but cool.

I wonder what the economics were after construction of the Pyramids?

The building of the Vatican correlates with the reformation of the Holy See.

Versailles, French revolution

A church in Spain and something. (I forget)

/DNRTFA

Read Parkinson's Law. Entire chapter devoted to the observation that the construction of the "ultimate" purpose-designed headquarters is a clear warning that the organization in question is well past its peak. Vital organizations don't have the the time to pause and take stock that such an undertaking requires.

You'll know that Apple is done if they ever break ground on that new "flying saucer" HQ design.

It's called the business cycle. Boom then bust.

I just build a skyscraper...in my pants.

Ok, it's really more of a pup tent, but I can dream, can't I?

The connection is hubris.

HotWingConspiracy: In India, billionaire Mukesh Ambani built his own skyscraper in Mumbai - a 27-storey residence believed to be the world's most expensive homeThe impending peasant uprising is going to be an interesting one.

Built with Indian slave labor. It would be interesting to see how many floors have serviceable wiring and plumbing.

Rapmaster2000: Thought this was common knowledge. It's not always so much a "misallocation" which is a slippery thing to call, but empire building, hubris, and optimism. Any boom in office space in which the skyscraper is inevitably a part of is an expression of the feeling that the good times will keep rolling.

[encrypted-tbn3.google.com image 275x183]

For example, Midland, Texas built a huge skyline during the Permian basin oil boom. It didn't last.

That's a "huge skyline"? There are tourist traps in Central Park bigger than that.

It's almost like blowing your money on stupid shiat instead of investing in things that will benefit your customer is a bad business decision.