For the short-term, government officials in South Korea and the United States don't mind the Chinese approach: They'd all prefer the stability of a lousy North Korean government to the chaos of a failing one.

And that's precisely why things won't be changing any time soon. They're a puppet of more powerful states.

China doesn't want a direct war with their primary trading parter. Yet.

Tr0mBoNe: China doesn't want a direct war with their primary trading parter. Yet.

Well, North Korea is an all around pain in the ass to China. They have a massive illegal immigration problem, and, as you note, it could end up dragging them into a war that they don't want (at least not at this point.) North Korea gains them nothing (except maybe some slave labor), and forces them into commitments that don't gain them much.

To China, North Korea is the loser brother that they have to let sleep on their couch because he's got nowhere else to go.

jake_lex: Tr0mBoNe: China doesn't want a direct war with their primary trading parter. Yet.

Well, North Korea is an all around pain in the ass to China. They have a massive illegal immigration problem, and, as you note, it could end up dragging them into a war that they don't want (at least not at this point.) North Korea gains them nothing (except maybe some slave labor), and forces them into commitments that don't gain them much.

To China, North Korea is the loser brother that they have to let sleep on their couch because he's got nowhere else to go.

Totally. I kinda wish I had an older brother with a million man army and nukes.

I don't think the Koreas will escallate too soon. I think it's more likely India and Pakistan have a 4 day war that sees the first tactical deployment of small scale nuclear weapons in combat. There really is no limit to how little they trust each other. At least America would have real argument to not get involved there. And of course if some unstable NATO country intervenes in Syria, Iran would have cause to shut down the Strait of Hormuz which will immediately remove 20% of oil and goods trade. America would have something to say about that. At least we would get to see a real naval battle with missiles and subs live on TV. There are a lot of defense contractors who would enjoy putting a few real kills on their weapon system websites.

So yeah... Korea is pretty low on my list.

Leo Bloom's Freakout: Am I the only one who worries when discussions of "small, tactical" nukes and naval warfare sounds like the soft pitch to a network for a reality TV series?

TV announcer voice: "This week on 'Where Is The War, Carmen Sandiego?' Name the country that used to be home to Hinduism's roots but now is known for the largest glassed crater in the Eastern hemisphere!"

All you need to do to get the same inspiration as me is read every Tom Clancy novel and take a few wiki trips through the development of jets, rockets, and nukes. Some trips through history shows how often small isolated events can initiate world wide conflict or how states use small regional conflicts to test their might against whoever backs the other side. That's why what's going on in Syria is extra worrysome... I've seen powder kegs in smash brothers more stable than that place right now. At least there's less of a chance of nukes there. Good thing there's an election going on... Don't expect anything dramatic to happen because of America.

Leo Bloom's Freakout: Absolutely, and I do not mean to deride your assessment of the area. What worries me at times, and maybe the Carmen Sandiego thing obscured it, but it's the way I hear, in a lot of places, wars and these conflicts discussed in an almost excited anticipatory manner. It's kind of the problem I have with the infotainment news world, these things feel much more like spectacle than the world-impacting historical events they are. I don't know if it's a change in the way we talk about everything or a new sensitivity in reaction to modern media, but looming conflicts don't feel like they have the same gravity.

Information overload is a huge problem now. It used to be that you didn't hear about all the little things... That's a bit of the problem, too... little things can spark large events in really unexpected ways. It's the large over arcing conflicts and history that regions and countries have that produce the big game chaning events. There are actual shots fired in anger just about every year between the two Koreas. Pakistan and India have been modernizing and growning their military for the past 15 years. World War II loomed for 10 years (or more depending on perspective) before 1939.. Korea started almost immediately after WWII, Vietnam was a 25 year conflict.

As for the excited andticipatory manner, it's a mix of realisim and a bit of irony because a lot of people truly think like that. War is good for business and ratings....