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(Yahoo) Interesting According to the people who put their money where their mouth is Obama is 54% likely to be elected, Dems have only a 20% chance of keeping the Senate but they've now got a 33% shot at taking the House. So bet the over   (news.yahoo.com) divider line 93
More: Interesting, Democrats, obama, Senate, Intrade, Richardson, Harvard Law Review, Real Clear Politics, economic indicators  
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1048 clicks; posted to Politics » on 01 Jan 2012 at 4:41 PM   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»   |    Get this fabulous T-Shirt and impress the methane out of your friends! shirt it!



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2012-01-01 01:23:49 PM
Obama as President and a GOP Congress?

Awesome. Another four years of "vote down anything Obama expresses any amount of support for - even if you support it, too"

If the GOP takes the Senate, prepare to hear the hypocrites whine about the filibuster
 
2012-01-01 01:28:44 PM
Lionel Mandrake: Obama as President and a GOP Congress?

Awesome. Another four years of "vote down anything Obama expresses any amount of support for - even if you support it, too"

If the GOP takes the Senate, prepare to hear the hypocrites whine about the filibuster


this this and ALL OF THIS

but the BEST PART?
Obama can just veto anything that he wants.

defense bill with spending cuts in social services and education? VETO
tax cuts for the rich and screw the 99%? VETO

and with executive orders he can do anything he wants with EPA and SEC and any other new regulations.
bwhahahhahahaha

would be fun to watch the GOP FROTH
so much santorum
 
2012-01-01 01:30:42 PM
Lionel Mandrake: Obama as President and a GOP Congress?

3.bp.blogspot.com
 
2012-01-01 02:09:08 PM
There is also a chance that Obama will spend this country into financial ruin, get us into unjust wars, pervert the Constitution to his own liberal ends, enact legislation that codifies Death Panels into law, and eat at restaurants where they serve three different types of butter.

Oh wait, that already happened.
 
2012-01-01 02:21:35 PM
Mike_LowELL: There is also a chance that Obama will spend this country into financial ruin, get us into unjust wars, pervert the Constitution to his own liberal ends, enact legislation that codifies Death Panels into law, and eat at restaurants where they serve three different types of butter.

Oh wait, that already happened.


There's also a chance that those afflicted with ODS will continue parrot ridiculous propaganda invented by right-wing blowhards.

Oh wait, that's been happening, is still happening and will continue happening until the end of time.
 
2012-01-01 02:29:05 PM
Lionel Mandrake: There's also a chance that those afflicted with ODS will continue parrot ridiculous propaganda invented by right-wing blowhards.

Oh wait, that's been happening, is still happening and will continue happening until the end of time.


It is not my problem that Christian conservatives are a minority in this country and have to scream at the top of their lungs in order to get their voices heard. If you do not like it, then maybe you should raise my taxes, forcing me into longer and harder hours until I am exhausted from paying my dues to the United States of Taxsylvania?

Oh wait, that's already happening. I made 3.1 billion dollars in 2011 and I will have to give over twenty percent of that to the government. This is pathetic. Why should I have to pay for roads just because I used them? Of course I am going to use them. You put them there without asking me for my input. The only input you asked for was my money. Lol. Stupid libs. Stop raising my taxes.
 
2012-01-01 02:58:18 PM
Osama bin Laden was captured?

Why didn't I get the memo about this retcon?
 
2012-01-01 03:53:16 PM
Aww, he'll, I've forgotten how to combine my probabilities.

So, putting these together and pretending for a moment these odds mean anything, does any FARK math nerds want to list the % chance of Republicans getting both houses AND the White House?

/shudder
 
2012-01-01 04:27:04 PM
RON PAUL is our next president and I called it first!
 
2012-01-01 04:47:06 PM
4 more years for Obama? Definitely happening due to the GOP's failure to put up a good candidate.

Dems keeping Congress? Unlikely.

Dems getting the House? Maybe.

All of this feels like Bill Clinton's administration again. Thought Bill got a lot more done.
 
2012-01-01 04:47:12 PM
That's how 2012 is going to go, I'm sure of it. Obama reelected, a GOP Senate is basically unavoidable, and I'm hoping the Dems can retake the House. A GOP senate is unavoidable because of the 33 Senators up for reelection 23 are Democrats and the Republicans only need a net gain of 2 seats to take the Senate. I'm expecting big Democratic gains where the GOP overplayed their agenda like in Wisconsin and Ohio.
 
2012-01-01 04:47:32 PM
Riche: Aww, he'll, I've forgotten how to combine my probabilities.

So, putting these together and pretending for a moment these odds mean anything, does any FARK math nerds want to list the % chance of Republicans getting both houses AND the White House?

/shudder


53% chance the GOP gets both houses of congress. Unless I suck at probabilities. Statistics is the red headed stepchild of mathematics.
 
2012-01-01 04:48:02 PM
Seth'n'Spectrum: Osama bin Laden was captured?

Why didn't I get the memo about this retcon?


Holy hell I just caught that. That's pretty sad.
 
2012-01-01 04:48:03 PM
Mike_LowELL: Lionel Mandrake: There's also a chance that those afflicted with ODS will continue parrot ridiculous propaganda invented by right-wing blowhards.

Oh wait, that's been happening, is still happening and will continue happening until the end of time.

It is not my problem that Christian conservatives are a minority in this country and have to scream at the top of their lungs in order to get their voices heard. If you do not like it, then maybe you should raise my taxes, forcing me into longer and harder hours until I am exhausted from paying my dues to the United States of Taxsylvania?

Oh wait, that's already happening. I made 3.1 billion dollars in 2011 and I will have to give over twenty percent of that to the government. This is pathetic. Why should I have to pay for roads just because I used them? Of course I am going to use them. You put them there without asking me for my input. The only input you asked for was my money. Lol. Stupid libs. Stop raising my taxes.


mimg.ugo.com

I like your style.
 
2012-01-01 04:48:35 PM
eddyatwork: RON PAUL is our next president and I called it first!

Dude, he's going to be a thousand years old in 2016.
 
2012-01-01 04:48:56 PM
Riche: Aww, he'll, I've forgotten how to combine my probabilities.

So, putting these together and pretending for a moment these odds mean anything, does any FARK math nerds want to list the % chance of Republicans getting both houses AND the White House?

/shudder


I was told there would be no math
 
2012-01-01 04:51:35 PM
and again, nothing good will get done
 
2012-01-01 04:52:31 PM
Riche: So, putting these together and pretending for a moment these odds mean anything, does any FARK math nerds want to list the % chance of Republicans getting both houses AND the White House?

Roughly the same as the odds of the U.S. collapsing into fiery death and destruction.
 
2012-01-01 04:53:42 PM
WizardofToast: 4 more years for Obama? Definitely happening due to the GOP's failure to put up a good candidate.

Dems keeping Congress? Unlikely.

Dems getting the House? Maybe.

All of this feels like Bill Clinton's administration again. Thought Bill got a lot more done.


Clinton got more done because he went to the center right after each election.
Obama has not shown a willingness to do so.
 
2012-01-01 04:54:45 PM
Styro Foam: A GOP senate is unavoidable because of the 33 Senators up for reelection 23 are Democrats and the Republicans only need a net gain of 2 seats to take the Senate. I'm expecting big Democratic gains where the GOP overplayed their agenda like in Wisconsin and Ohio.

It'll be interesting to see what effect the GOP presidential candidate has on the congressional races. If they nominate a Teabagger, the election season debate will be about retarded topics like Joe the Plumber. It could make it hard for GOP congressional candidates. If the GOP nominates Romney, then the 'core' teabaggers may not show up to vote.
 
2012-01-01 04:58:04 PM
Mike_LowELL: It is not my problem that Christian conservatives are a minority in this country and have to scream ... I made 3.1 billion dollars in 2011

And yet you still find time to come here and troll...

a true renaissance man
 
2012-01-01 04:59:36 PM
I would put Obama's chance for a re-elect in the high 90s. Not only does the Repubs not have a candidate to stand behind, they are resembling some kind of a movie comedy act. this time round, Obama will get more done because he sees now how the repubs are willing to work for the people, so there will be no more nonsense of trying to deal with them with logic and caring about the people.

It will be an ugly time and many will froth at the mouth. But there WILL be things done. Just not to the liking of the froth mouths...
 
2012-01-01 05:01:06 PM
Riche: Aww, he'll, I've forgotten how to combine my probabilities.

So, putting these together and pretending for a moment these odds mean anything, does any FARK math nerds want to list the % chance of Republicans getting both houses AND the White House?

/shudder


IICC, about 25%.

However, that assumes that all these events are totally separate and there is no correlation.
For example, if the voters are voting out all the dems from the senate, it is unlikely that those same voters would be voting in all the dems to the house.
 
2012-01-01 05:01:18 PM
tenpoundsofcheese: WizardofToast: 4 more years for Obama? Definitely happening due to the GOP's failure to put up a good candidate.

Dems keeping Congress? Unlikely.

Dems getting the House? Maybe.

All of this feels like Bill Clinton's administration again. Thought Bill got a lot more done.

Clinton got more done because he went to the center right after each election.
Obama has not shown a willingness to do so.


Where the fark do you think he started from? He isn't a Democrat the way I see it.
 
2012-01-01 05:01:47 PM
Who are the 46%? Who are the lunatics who actually think the lunatics who comprise the republican contingent have a chance? They're all like a bad Saturday Night Live joke.
 
2012-01-01 05:03:34 PM
" Is there a mood that this President is probably going to lose as events take their course? Is he headed towards defeat?"
Chris Matthews

When Matthews is worried, there is a problem.
 
2012-01-01 05:05:06 PM
So the Democrats keep the presidency but somehow lose the Senate while gaining the House?

i636.photobucket.com

/Someone who's making sure his portfolio has insurance, that's what.
 
2012-01-01 05:05:25 PM
I think if Romney is the nominee Obama will be re-elected, and the Dems have a decent chance of keeping the Senate and maybe taking the house. They are going to have a massive enthusiasm gap on their side.
 
2012-01-01 05:06:44 PM
tenpoundsofcheese:
Clinton got more done because he went to the center right after each election.
Obama has not shown a willingness to do so.


yeah, he's the one that won't compromise
You go with that if it makes you sleep better at night.
 
2012-01-01 05:08:04 PM
MSFT: tenpoundsofcheese:
Clinton got more done because he went to the center right after each election.
Obama has not shown a willingness to do so.

yeah, he's the one that won't compromise
You go with that if it makes you sleep better at night.


Remember:

Compromise = Doing everything the Republicans want you to do
 
2012-01-01 05:08:36 PM
Obama has to fark something up really bad to lose the election Or a Republican has to get his head out of his ass and run a flawless campaign.(neither one very likely) I'm really not sure about the House and Senate. I really can't see a dramatic shift one way or the other. I do not see a large voter turn-out and will bet that more votes will end up going to third parties but those third parties will gain little traction overall.

\pretty safe bets all around I think.
 
2012-01-01 05:11:04 PM
Riche: Aww, he'll, I've forgotten how to combine my probabilities.

So, putting these together and pretending for a moment these odds mean anything, does any FARK math nerds want to list the % chance of Republicans getting both houses AND the White House?

/shudder


The difficultly is that none of those are independent propositions, so you can't just multiply the probabilities to get the total probability if them all happening.

Much more information would be needed to give any kind of useful answer.
 
2012-01-01 05:14:32 PM
As long as the GOP controls anything the gov't is broken.
 
2012-01-01 05:15:05 PM
smitty04: " Is there a mood that this President is probably going to lose as events take their course? Is he headed towards defeat?"
Chris Matthews

When Matthews is worried, there is a problem.


I knowi n right-wing echo chambers he's considered a liberal, but if you can't really think that; he's a political junky. He wants what ever conflict there is. Regardless of how relevant it actually is.
 
2012-01-01 05:15:36 PM
Tellingthem: Obama has to fark something up really bad to lose the election Or a Republican has to get his head out of his ass and run a flawless campaign.(neither one very likely) I'm really not sure about the House and Senate. I really can't see a dramatic shift one way or the other. I do not see a large voter turn-out and will bet that more votes will end up going to third parties but those third parties will gain little traction overall.

\pretty safe bets all around I think.


I think I remember reading that in the Senate there are way more Democrats up for re-election than Republicans, so they have a natural disadvantage there.

The House, I don't know.

I don't see Obama losing this one at this point though, I think his personal odds should be pretty high. It's looking like his opponent is almost certainly Mitt, and nobody at all is excited about him. Would take some major happenings for Obama to lose, IMO.
 
2012-01-01 05:19:19 PM
saminman: Riche: Aww, he'll, I've forgotten how to combine my probabilities.

So, putting these together and pretending for a moment these odds mean anything, does any FARK math nerds want to list the % chance of Republicans getting both houses AND the White House?

/shudder

53% chance the GOP gets both houses of congress. Unless I suck at probabilities. Statistics is the red headed stepchild of mathematics.


Nah, you're right.

Senate: 80% chance
House: 67% chance
Assuming the're independent probabilities, which is sort of unwise but should be close enough for our purposes: 0.8*0.67~=54% (I'm guessing your 53% was due to rounding down).

Dem house, Republican senate: 0.33*0.8~=26%
Repub house, Dem senate: 0.67*0.2~=13%
Leaving the odds of the Dems taking both at a pathetic ~7%
 
2012-01-01 05:21:24 PM
Sell, Mortimer, sell!
 
2012-01-01 05:26:16 PM
The more the GOP obstruct Obama from doing anything at all in the next few months, the more likely the electorate will think they need to give one party of the other a clean sweep in order to stop the stalemate. If the GOP don't put up a credible Presidential candidate, they could lose all three.

/wishful thinking
 
2012-01-01 05:35:41 PM
image.spreadshirt.com
 
2012-01-01 05:36:18 PM
houginator: I think if Romney is the nominee Obama will be re-elected, and the Dems have a decent chance of keeping the Senate and maybe taking the house. They are going to have a massive enthusiasm gap on their side.

I would actually say that Romney is the worst-case scenario for Obama for the opposite reason you cited: lack of enthusiasm for Obama. Romney may not have an enthusiastic base, but he also doesn't inspire lukewarm Obama supporters to revote for Obama. So I would say the above situation (Obama being re-elected, gaining the House, losing the Senate), describes a Romney vs Obama scenario; I would only predict the Democrats winning back the House and gaining Senate seats would be if pretty much anyone else was nominated against Obama.
 
2012-01-01 05:42:33 PM
Mike_LowELL: Lionel Mandrake: There's also a chance that those afflicted with ODS will continue parrot ridiculous propaganda invented by right-wing blowhards.

Oh wait, that's been happening, is still happening and will continue happening until the end of time.

It is not my problem that Christian conservatives are a minority in this country and have to scream at the top of their lungs in order to get their voices heard. If you do not like it, then maybe you should raise my taxes, forcing me into longer and harder hours until I am exhausted from paying my dues to the United States of Taxsylvania?

Oh wait, that's already happening. I made 3.1 billion dollars in 2011 and I will have to give over twenty percent of that to the government. This is pathetic. Why should I have to pay for roads just because I used them? Of course I am going to use them. You put them there without asking me for my input. The only input you asked for was my money. Lol. Stupid libs. Stop raising my taxes.


Half the people on fark don't get your humor.

I like the cut of your jib.
 
2012-01-01 05:47:38 PM
Republicans are a bunch of tossers. I really hope they don't make any gains.
 
2012-01-01 05:54:05 PM
Wyalt Derp: The more the GOP obstruct Obama from doing anything at all in the next few months, the more likely the electorate will think they need to give one party of the other a clean sweep in order to stop the stalemate. If the GOP don't put up a credible Presidential candidate, they could lose all three.

/wishful thinking


There's a pretty large group of us who are completely happy with a stalemate in the federal government.
 
2012-01-01 06:04:22 PM
The GOP House's only goal is that Obama is a one term president. If he's re-elected they failed their ONE goal.
How pathetic.
 
2012-01-01 06:10:17 PM
EatenTheSun: There's a pretty large group of us who are completely happy with a stalemate in the federal government.

So you'd prefer it when Congress wastes huge amounts of money and time while not accomplishing anything?
 
2012-01-01 06:16:21 PM
I don't understand how anyone put close to even odds of Obama being re-elected. I mean, have they seen who is running against him? Really the chance of Obama losing is the chance that either his health will fail or he will be caught in a scandal (realistically his odds should be 85-90%).

The odds on the senate and congress on the other hand seem about right to me though.
 
2012-01-01 06:20:46 PM
tenpoundsofcheese: WizardofToast: 4 more years for Obama? Definitely happening due to the GOP's failure to put up a good candidate.

Dems keeping Congress? Unlikely.

Dems getting the House? Maybe.

All of this feels like Bill Clinton's administration again. Thought Bill got a lot more done.

Clinton got more done because he went to the center right after each election.
Obama has not shown a willingness to do so.


Wat
 
2012-01-01 06:21:33 PM
whidbey: EatenTheSun: There's a pretty large group of us who are completely happy with a stalemate in the federal government.

So you'd prefer it when Congress wastes huge amounts of money and time while not accomplishing anything?


Over wasting huge amounts of time and money while farking me over? Absolutely.
 
2012-01-01 06:23:23 PM
s1ugg0: Mike_LowELL: Lionel Mandrake: There's also a chance that those afflicted with ODS will continue parrot ridiculous propaganda invented by right-wing blowhards.

Oh wait, that's been happening, is still happening and will continue happening until the end of time.

It is not my problem that Christian conservatives are a minority in this country and have to scream at the top of their lungs in order to get their voices heard. If you do not like it, then maybe you should raise my taxes, forcing me into longer and harder hours until I am exhausted from paying my dues to the United States of Taxsylvania?

Oh wait, that's already happening. I made 3.1 billion dollars in 2011 and I will have to give over twenty percent of that to the government. This is pathetic. Why should I have to pay for roads just because I used them? Of course I am going to use them. You put them there without asking me for my input. The only input you asked for was my money. Lol. Stupid libs. Stop raising my taxes.

Half the people on fark don't get your humor.

I like the cut of your jib.


It's not their fault, Poe's Law is in effect.
 
2012-01-01 06:24:13 PM
EatenTheSun: whidbey: EatenTheSun: There's a pretty large group of us who are completely happy with a stalemate in the federal government.

So you'd prefer it when Congress wastes huge amounts of money and time while not accomplishing anything?

Over wasting huge amounts of time and money while farking me over? Absolutely.


You're what's wrong with America.
 
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