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(Scientific American) Scary The crazy weather of 2011 was just a sign of things to come   (scientificamerican.com) divider line 57
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4929 clicks; posted to Geek » on 09 Dec 2011 at 11:08 AM   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»   |    Get this fabulous T-Shirt and impress the methane out of your friends! shirt it!



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2011-12-09 11:10:03 AM
Bring it on Mother Nature, you twat!
 
2011-12-09 11:10:38 AM
"And at least some of that increase appears to be driven by..."

at least, some, and appears - Now that's scientific fact!
 
2011-12-09 11:14:09 AM
nah, it's crazy now, call me when it dies out and then we all die

/debbie downer
 
2011-12-09 11:16:01 AM
That puts more pressure on NOAA to improve its ability to better understand and predict those events

Um, so how's that wildfire prediction model coming along? And what good is it to say "we think we'll have a blizzard somewhere on the East coast...sometime this year..." If you live where you get large amounts of snow, you should prepare for a blizzard EVERY winter, not only if NOAA "predicts" one.

The only predictions that seem to be of any worth are tornado warnings because people have to take specific precautions to not die...and maybe droughts, cuz it's long term issue that needs planning to overcome. Everything else...prepare for the worst, just in case. No predictions needed.
 
2011-12-09 11:17:49 AM
stewmadness: "And at least some of that increase appears to be driven by..."

at least, some, and appears - Now that's scientific fact!


Well, you can't talk about climate change in a factual tone, or the deniers get all huffy.

Regardless, it makes no difference to the point of the article: weather isn't going to stop being nasty just because we de-fund NOAA.
 
2011-12-09 11:18:43 AM
The great thing is that if the average temperature keeps increasing we'll have more arable land in places like Canada and Siberia.
 
2011-12-09 11:18:44 AM
stewmadness: at least, some, and appears - Now that's scientific fact!

I like how you nutters biatch and whine when there's a lack of absolute certainty applied to the statements because it's not scientitious enough for you and then you biatch and whine when someone makes an absolute statement because that's just not something scienticians could absolutely know for sure.

It's almost like you have no idea what the fark you are talking about and you're just lashing out blindly because the very probable truth is something you don't want to hear.
 
2011-12-09 11:21:04 AM
wmoonfox: it makes no difference to the point of the article: weather isn't going to stop being nasty just because we de-fund NOAA.

So much THIS.

/volcano monitoring
 
2011-12-09 11:29:40 AM
DontMakeMeComeBackThere: That puts more pressure on NOAA to improve its ability to better understand and predict those events

Um, so how's that wildfire prediction model coming along? And what good is it to say "we think we'll have a blizzard somewhere on the East coast...sometime this year..." If you live where you get large amounts of snow, you should prepare for a blizzard EVERY winter, not only if NOAA "predicts" one.

The only predictions that seem to be of any worth are tornado warnings because people have to take specific precautions to not die...and maybe droughts, cuz it's long term issue that needs planning to overcome. Everything else...prepare for the worst, just in case. No predictions needed.


Yep. And those 15 hurricanes that were all supposed to hit New Orleans directly in 2011.

/Yeah, hyperbole
//But not *that* far off what the idiots predicted
 
2011-12-09 11:34:37 AM
Can I take this thread as an opportunity to biatch about the Meteorologist on the local news? Yes we have had more severe storms in recent years, yes there is some kind of climate change going on, but 40 degree weather in Atlanta in December is normal don't go on and on about an "Arctic Blast" when temperatures are 1 degree off normal temperatures.
 
2011-12-09 11:37:08 AM
And another year without a hurricane in Florida.
 
2011-12-09 11:41:51 AM
If by "crazy" you mean "no snow in one of the snowiest cities in the U.S", then I'll gladly take 3 more months of crazy.
 
2011-12-09 12:04:09 PM
StoPPeRmobile: And another year without a hurricane in Florida.

Im not complaining at all.. Well, ok, Ill complain about there being no Hurricane Football.. I need to go and play some Cat 1 Hurricane football.
 
2011-12-09 12:07:27 PM
StoPPeRmobile: And another year without a hurricane in Florida.

wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com
 
2011-12-09 12:13:54 PM
inkblot: If by "crazy" you mean "no snow in one of the snowiest cities in the U.S", then I'll gladly take 3 more months of crazy.

Are you aware that you can move to another part of the world?
 
2011-12-09 12:41:20 PM
watson.t.hamster: [icons-ak.wxug.com image 489x381]

[www.worldclimatereport.com image 435x328]

[www.wunderground.com image 513x416]

My god. Can you imagine if these trends continued? We would suffer ever more average weather until the averageness of it consumes us all!

/I know you don't want your funding cut, but making claims that are easily disprove doesn't help your case.


Ummm, I'm not sure what point you're trying to make, considering none of your charts include anything from 2010 or 2011.
 
2011-12-09 12:49:16 PM
MrSteve007: watson.t.hamster: [icons-ak.wxug.com image 489x381]

[www.worldclimatereport.com image 435x328]

[www.wunderground.com image 513x416]

My god. Can you imagine if these trends continued? We would suffer ever more average weather until the averageness of it consumes us all!

/I know you don't want your funding cut, but making claims that are easily disprove doesn't help your case.

Ummm, I'm not sure what point you're trying to make, considering none of your charts include anything from 2010 or 2011.


The predicted trend of ever crazier weather has not materialized.

Due to global warming we were supposed to get more (and worse) hurricanes, tornadoes, droughts, etc.

So either these predicted trends failed to materialize concurrently with global warming or global warming started on December 8, 2011.
 
2011-12-09 01:01:48 PM
MrSteve007: Ummm, I'm not sure what point you're trying to make, considering none of your charts include anything from 2010 or 2011.

He's not trying to make any point. At least one of those graphs is from World Climate Report, which makes no excuses nor even tries to hide its bias; they are open and frank that their intent is to disprove climate change. Just go look at the site and see.

He's either an idiot who actually buys into their propaganda, or he's trolling... either way, not worth acknowledgment.
 
2011-12-09 01:06:15 PM
watson.t.hamster: The predicted trend of ever crazier weather has not materialized.
Due to global warming we were supposed to get more (and worse) hurricanes, tornadoes, droughts, etc.
So either these predicted trends failed to materialize concurrently with global warming or global warming started on December 8, 2011


So global warming is over now? What a relief.
 
2011-12-09 01:09:34 PM
wmoonfox:
He's not trying to make any point. At least one of those graphs is from World Climate Report, which makes no excuses nor even tries to hide its bias; they are open and frank that their intent is to disprove climate change.

Well, it looks like they're doing better at that than the people who scream about how climate change is going to make the weather worse. For example, the "we're going to have more - and worse - hurricanes" crowd, who have been, so far, completely wrong.

Note also how the people who used to scream about total weather damage are now counting numbers of disasters that pass a given amount of damage (while not allowing for inflation). The "we're having a lot of $1 billion dollar weather outbreaks" people used to only add up total damage, but this year we're at a fairly low number on that measure, so they changed it to something dumber.
 
2011-12-09 01:18:42 PM
cirby: Well, it looks like they're doing better at that than the people who scream about how climate change is going to make the weather worse.

Versus the average Joe Blow alarmist on the street, who cannot fathom that there is a difference between "climate" and "weather"? Yes, they are doing marginally better; they're the same kind of crazy, but they can spout their propaganda without frothing at the mouth or chewing through their restraints.

Versus climate scientists who have devoted their lives to the study of the planet and its ever-changing biosphere, including our effect on it? No, they are not even in the same ball court; they are twisting raw numbers and ignoring any statistics which do not support their foregone conclusion. It's the worst kind of confirmation bias, and anyone with an IQ above room temperature should be ashamed to associate with them.
 
2011-12-09 01:24:28 PM
Multiple studies suggest that current drought and flood regimes are not unusual within the context of last 1000 years [(e.g., Cook et al., 2010; Seager et al., 2008; Graham et al., 2010)]. But don't let that interfere with media hysteria and people seeking funding.
 
2011-12-09 01:25:46 PM
About 20,000 years ago, there was two miles of ice above what is now Albany, NY.
I'd say conditions have improved since then.

Of course, when all that ice melted, the shorelines moved in from what are now the submerged continental shelves and the Chesapeake Bay formed in the Susquehanna River valley. Sea levels rose when the climate warmed up.

/That's good if you like blue crabs and boating!
 
2011-12-09 01:29:07 PM
I'm dubious about those charts.

Let's see the raw data.
 
2011-12-09 01:37:11 PM
How many are these disasters are influenced by inflation?
 
2011-12-09 01:38:34 PM
GLOBAL WARMING?

A Prophetic Weather Forecast

For Planet Earth . . .

Link (new window)

it is written...
 
2011-12-09 01:56:55 PM
NOAA Administrator Jane Lubchenco

Like I'm going to believe anything a known liberal, commie, fascist, hippie with direct ties to Fartbongo, Alex Jones, Yo Yo Ma and Spongebob has to say. Sorry suckers, your not pulling the wool out from under my feet!
 
2011-12-09 02:05:46 PM
Weather's been great in Montana the last few years. Mildish winters, lots of rain in the spring and early summer. No fire season where half the state is burning.

Keep it up, Global Climate Change!
 
2011-12-09 02:10:24 PM
You must buy more carbon credits, citizen!!!
 
2011-12-09 02:13:50 PM
wmoonfox:
Versus climate scientists who have devoted their lives to the study of the planet and its ever-changing biosphere, including our effect on it?

That's the funny part: those same scientists, according to their own emails, seem to have spent much of the last couple of decades trying to cover up the fact that they screwed up their predictions, and are trying desperately to keep people from noticing that they made all of those dumb predictions in the first place. The more famous guys seem to have spent most of their 'careers" taking money from various governments, then tried to hide their actual work from the people who paid for it.

Remember that "hurricanes are getting to get stronger and more numerous" thing from a decade or so ago? Which went away when they didn't? Funny how those "scientists" missed that.
 
2011-12-09 02:22:45 PM
Yeah, well, it is currently cold outside.
 
2011-12-09 02:27:44 PM
cirby: That's the funny part: those same scientists, according to their own emails, seem to have spent much of the last couple of decades trying to cover up the fact that they screwed up their predictions, and are trying desperately to keep people from noticing that they made all of those dumb predictions in the first place.

If you really believe that the two-page list of denier talking points which came out of the multi-gigabyte email archive that was leaked is representative of "much of the last couple of decades", then you're a blathering farking idiot. People like you should go play in traffic to free the responsible members of society from your absurd BS, and allow them to make decisions with a perspective that encompasses more than the seven day forecast.
 
2011-12-09 02:33:04 PM
cirby: Remember that "hurricanes are getting to get stronger and more numerous" thing from a decade or so ago? Which went away when they didn't? Funny how those "scientists" missed that.

Yeah... Remember how those Category 5 hurricanes are only supposed to happen every 100 years?

You might want to do a little personal independent research.

I'm thinking you're not a wealthy industrialist, which makes me wonder why you enjoy being a volunteer water carrier for folks who want to fark up your world and not have to pay anything for the privilege.
 
2011-12-09 02:40:33 PM
2011: Seven hurricanes, three major hurricanes.

That's not very crazy.
 
2011-12-09 02:48:57 PM
HotIgneous Intruder: 2011: Seven hurricanes, three major hurricanes.

That's not very crazy.


Indeed - it's *only* tied for 3rd place for the most named storms in one season.
 
2011-12-09 02:59:48 PM
MrSteve007: HotIgneous Intruder: 2011: Seven hurricanes, three major hurricanes.

That's not very crazy.

Indeed - it's *only* tied for 3rd place for the most named storms in one season.


It's also only one data point among many. People seem to forget that this planet's surface is 75% water.

2011 Atlantic hurricane season
2011 Pacific hurricane season
2011 Pacific typhoon season
2010-11 South-West Indian Ocean cyclone season
2010-11 Australian region cyclone season
2010-11 South Pacific cyclone season
2011 North Indian Ocean cyclone season
 
2011-12-09 03:42:37 PM
cirby: wmoonfox:
He's not trying to make any point. At least one of those graphs is from World Climate Report, which makes no excuses nor even tries to hide its bias; they are open and frank that their intent is to disprove climate change.

Well, it looks like they're doing better at that than the people who scream about how climate change is going to make the weather worse. For example, the "we're going to have more - and worse - hurricanes" crowd, who have been, so far, completely wrong.

Note also how the people who used to scream about total weather damage are now counting numbers of disasters that pass a given amount of damage (while not allowing for inflation). The "we're having a lot of $1 billion dollar weather outbreaks" people used to only add up total damage, but this year we're at a fairly low number on that measure, so they changed it to something dumber.


More and worse crowd? I never heard of this crowd. I only heard the worse crowd.
There is this interesting thing called the rest of the world. Why do none of your charts mention all hurricanes, like the ones that hit other countries or stay out at sea? Oh, because only cherry picked evidence makes your case, not reality.
 
2011-12-09 03:51:22 PM
They are saying we might get nailed by snow this winter in DC. If its as wet as Aug/Sept were I believe it.
 
2011-12-09 04:03:08 PM
Hmmm. I remember AGW threads from back in the day when people would make claims about future conditions, show graphs of future temperatures, hurricane strength and amounts of hurricanes, whine about the poor polar bear poster animals, tell of droughts, floods and general apocalypse conditions. Certain roads would be underwater by a few years ago, crime would spiral out of control due to food and water wars etc etc etc

Many many bad things which would have happened by now if they had been true.

And that`s the point. They were not true.

Look at ANY predictions which predicted more than five years ahead and they do not have the weight of truth to force people to accept the theory. Correct me if I am wrong but are we not producing more co2 than the worst case scenarios presented and yet we have had lower temperatures than the best case scenario in recent years. How does that work? When people suggested that the sun was the driving force behind the observed changed through the mechanism of cosmic rays, solar wind and cloud formation it was pointed out that the there had been a decade of temperatures which did not match the sunspot graph and it was said by alarmists that that meant the theory was no good. Now that the same has happened for the alarmists will they accept that their theory has a similar shadow of doubt cast upon it?

Not a chance. They will reply with insults. They will say `the science is settled` `you are as bad as a holocaust denier` `whats wrong with lying to you to to get you to do what we want anyway? we only want what's best for you, we have your best interests at heart. just go back to sleep`
 
2011-12-09 04:10:36 PM
FTA "The unfortunate thing is that with more and more extreme events, we are being requested with increasing frequency by emergency managers, by citizens, by the business community, by farmers ... for more information on climate-scale events, which we define as anything beyond 14 days,"

LeftOfLiberal: More and worse crowd? I never heard of this crowd. I only heard the worse crowd.

have you not heard of the more and more crowd? so you know the worse crowd, welcome to the more crowd. together they may have the effect of being a more and worse crowd?
 
2011-12-09 05:32:02 PM
dready zim: And that`s the point. They were not true.

A major American city completely submerged, record summer ice melts in the Arctic, resource wars in northern Africa, the entire continent of Australia ablaze, huge swaths of deciduous forests at risk due to rapidly climbing temperatures, wildly erratic weather patterns increasing in intensity, and global temperature increases at every monitoring station on record... but yeah, I guess since there hasn't been a firecane, there's no truth to any of it.

dready zim: Not a chance. They will reply with insults.

The more diplomatic amongst us have left you to the likes of me, who will just as soon call you a raving lunatic as entertain you by posting dry statistics, because they're tired of arguing a point that every legitimate scientist in the world agrees has been settled. You're an idiot; a buffoon; a doofus; a fool; a dimwit; a dunce; an imbecile; a ninny; a twit; an ignoramus; a cretin... and you are not worthy of reasoned debate, because you have no intention of accepting reality once somebody goes to the effort of debunking your talking points; you will simply scream something about a global conspiracy involving scientists and grant money, then storm off, only to show up in the next thread to repeat the entire shebang. You are a pile of stinking, filthy, human excrement, and you and your ilk are holding back human progress based on lies, deceit, and politics.

In short, you suck, and nobody thinks your antics are funny or clever any longer. Go away.
 
2011-12-09 06:30:42 PM
wmoonfox: dready zim: And that`s the point. They were not true.

A major American city completely submerged, record summer ice melts in the Arctic, resource wars in northern Africa, the entire continent of Australia ablaze, huge swaths of deciduous forests at risk due to rapidly climbing temperatures, wildly erratic weather patterns increasing in intensity, and global temperature increases at every monitoring station on record... but yeah, I guess since there hasn't been a firecane, there's no truth to any of it.

dready zim: Not a chance. They will reply with insults.

The more diplomatic amongst us have left you to the likes of me, who will just as soon call you a raving lunatic as entertain you by posting dry statistics, because they're tired of arguing a point that every legitimate scientist in the world agrees has been settled. You're an idiot; a buffoon; a doofus; a fool; a dimwit; a dunce; an imbecile; a ninny; a twit; an ignoramus; a cretin... and you are not worthy of reasoned debate, because you have no intention of accepting reality once somebody goes to the effort of debunking your talking points; you will simply scream something about a global conspiracy involving scientists and grant money, then storm off, only to show up in the next thread to repeat the entire shebang. You are a pile of stinking, filthy, human excrement, and you and your ilk are holding back human progress based on lies, deceit, and politics.

In short, you suck, and nobody thinks your antics are funny or clever any longer. Go away.
Or I shall taunt you a second time.
thewisecracker.com

//couldn't resist....
 
2011-12-09 06:54:57 PM
Nothing but lies, lies and more lies.
 
2011-12-09 07:44:29 PM
Awe lawdy, they's gone all global on meh!

We live on water world. Gotcha!
We're all gonna die. Check!
We're all gonna cook. Roger that!
We all have to stop burning squished dinosaurs. Double check!

/CO2 is not the answer.
//When each of us dies, his world ends.
///A brief history of the doomsayers: ABHOTA, 3,000 years of apocalyptic arm waving.
 
2011-12-09 07:45:55 PM
About 20,000 years ago, there was two miles of ice above what is now Albany, NY.

THAT is crazy weather, my friends!
 
2011-12-09 08:32:31 PM
HotIgneous Intruder: About 20,000 years ago, there was two miles of ice above what is now Albany, NY.

THAT is crazy weather, my friends!


What, exactly, is your point here?
 
2011-12-09 08:48:48 PM
wmoonfox: dready zim: And that`s the point. They were not true.

A major American city completely submerged, record summer ice melts in the Arctic, resource wars in northern Africa, the entire continent of Australia ablaze, huge swaths of deciduous forests at risk due to rapidly climbing temperatures, wildly erratic weather patterns increasing in intensity, and global temperature increases at every monitoring station on record... but yeah, I guess since there hasn't been a firecane, there's no truth to any of it.

dready zim: Not a chance. They will reply with insults.

The more diplomatic amongst us have left you to the likes of me, who will just as soon call you a raving lunatic as entertain you by posting dry statistics, because they're tired of arguing a point that every legitimate scientist in the world agrees has been settled. You're an idiot; a buffoon; a doofus; a fool; a dimwit; a dunce; an imbecile; a ninny; a twit; an ignoramus; a cretin... and you are not worthy of reasoned debate, because you have no intention of accepting reality once somebody goes to the effort of debunking your talking points; you will simply scream something about a global conspiracy involving scientists and grant money, then storm off, only to show up in the next thread to repeat the entire shebang. You are a pile of stinking, filthy, human excrement, and you and your ilk are holding back human progress based on lies, deceit, and politics.

In short, you suck, and nobody thinks your antics are funny or clever any longer. Go away.


OMG. That was beautiful.

/wipes tears from eyes...
 
2011-12-09 10:06:24 PM
DontMakeMeComeBackThere: The only predictions that seem to be of any worth to me are tornado warnings because people have to take specific precautions to not die...and maybe droughts, cuz it's long term issue that needs planning to overcome. Everything else...prepare for the worst, just in case. No predictions needed.

You clearly have never ran or been part of a business that requires this kind of information. Stop thinking like some idiot senator who has never had an actual job and recognize that the universe doesn't revolve around your personal needs.
 
2011-12-10 09:15:51 AM
wmoonfox: A major American city completely submerged

citation needed

wmoonfox: record summer ice melts in the Arctic

fair enough

wmoonfox: resource wars in northern Africa

there are ALWAYS resource wars in africa, this means nothing in itself

wmoonfox: huge swaths of deciduous forests at risk due to rapidly climbing temperatures

Maybe we should stop chopping them down at huge rates instead of worrying about killing them with our thermostat though. Deforestation should be addressed before climate change here.

wmoonfox: the entire continent of Australia ablaze

Really? Are you sure you don`t want to tone this down a little? You are sounding silly now.

wmoonfox: wildly erratic weather patterns increasing in intensity

"The report from the Nobel Prize-winning Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change will be issued in a few weeks, after a meeting in Uganda. It says there is at least a two-in-three probability that weather extremes have already worsened because of man-made greenhouse gases." Even the alarmists say there is only a 66% chance they are right. That is not science, that is conjecture.

Poor troll, come back later with more than insults. I have addressed your points and found them lacking. Show me a prediction that has come true which predicted more than 5 years into the future. If you can`t then you are an idiot; a buffoon; a doofus; a fool; a dimwit; a dunce; an imbecile; a ninny; a twit; an ignoramus; a cretin... and you are not worthy of reasoned debate, because you have no intention of accepting reality once somebody goes to the effort of debunking your talking points. You are a pile of stinking, filthy, human excrement, and you and your ilk are holding back human progress based on lies, deceit, and politics.

In short, you suck, and nobody thinks your antics are funny or clever any longer. Go away or address my point. In case you are confused, predictive science is judged on it`s prediction ability. Show me the successful predictions (not explanations of the past) which predicted at least 5 years into the future.

thewisecracker.com

"I told them we already had 66% settled science (snicker)."

Look, the green threadshiatter doesn`t help his side with what he does and you don`t help your side with what you do. you are as bad as each other. Grow up.
 
2011-12-10 09:51:58 AM
dready zim: wmoonfox: A major American city completely submerged

citation needed


See... if you'd put this at the bottom of your post, maybe I would have read the rest of it. Nothing else you say can be given any credibility whatsoever. As I suspected, you have no intent to accept reality when it is explained to you in even your own special brand of retard, so is it any wonder that people willing to actually entertain your BS with anything other than insults have you on ignore?
 
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