Obvious, sure, but it's still good to back one's assumptions up with data.

I haven't even been following the scandals.

To me, the sheer small-minded social conservative nutcase ideology of Herman Cain speaks for itself.

That, and Godfather's sucked royally after he took it over.

His point was not that it wasn't obvious, but that other people were trying to pretend that it wasn't obvious:

Some of the write-ups about Mr. Cain's campaign have only mentioned the allegations of sexual harassment and infidelity in passing, which is a bit like asking "other than that, Mrs. Lincoln, how was the play?"

Plus, LOL at the graph:

And yet, Newt's multiple affairs and ethics violations seem not to hurt his polling.

It's tragic, because his ideas and policies should've brought him down.

His main role was to do this:

Herman Cain denies GOP's horrible history with blacks

Link (new window)

/You'd think the GOP would've learned from its failure to draw women voters by nominating Sarah Palin . . .

Interesting. It was right around the time these showed up




Courtney of the prophet WhoIsWillo (new window)

9 9 9!

It's still important to run the numbers, no matter how obvious the results might seem afterwards and no matter how much you'd like to just go with your gut, common sense, conventional wisdom, etc...

/been reading Nate Silver since he helped me win fantasy baseball leagues.

Nate's the man. The math man. Leave your narrative out of it, leave your political and emotional motivations out of it, and just run the farking numbers.

Of course, if people did that there wouldn't be a conservative left alive.

Anyway, it's disgraceful that some inconsequential (albeit hilarious) bullshiat took Cain dead and not the fact that his ideas are all terrible.

A Dark Evil Omen: Nate's the man. The math man. Leave your narrative out of it, leave your political and emotional motivations out of it, and just run the farking numbers.

Of course, if people did that there wouldn't be a conservative left alive.

Anyway, it's disgraceful that some inconsequential (albeit hilarious) bullshiat took Cain dead and not the fact that his ideas are all terrible.

That can't be repeated enough.

whidbey: I haven't even been following the scandals.

To me, the sheer small-minded social conservative nutcase ideology of Herman Cain speaks for itself.

That, and Godfather's sucked royally after he took it over.

The sad thing is, neither of those facts are what brought him down. It took a sexy scandal that the media was willing to pay attention to.

The hilarious part about Cain is that he has a degree in math, yet you don't have to do much math at all to see his tax plan would bankrupt the country and give the rich a fat tax break on the backs of the poorest Americans.

The scandal stuff is "meh" compared to that.

Sometimes life is hard. Sometimes it can seem impossible.

Tusz: whidbey: I haven't even been following the scandals.

To me, the sheer small-minded social conservative nutcase ideology of Herman Cain speaks for itself.

That, and Godfather's sucked royally after he took it over.

The sad thing is, neither of those facts are what brought him down. It took a sexy scandal that the media was willing to pay attention to.

I dunno...I gotta wonder how much momentum (Hermentum?) his kooky campaign would have maintained by next year.

Pretty obvious Romney's going to be the nom unless they go totally stealth.

FuturePastNow: And yet, Newt's multiple affairs and ethics violations seem not to hurt his polling.

The fact that there are still people who are even considering voting for Newt Gingrich to do anything other than be fired out of a cannon into the sun is continuing proof that no one remembers anything.

Newt Gingrich's idiotic tenure as Speaker, as well as the peripheral scumbaggery that came with it, happened too long ago for most people to remember. Herman Cain flew a little too close to the sun and got his dirty laundry dumped in the immediate present, and the goldfish deserted him.

If he's smart, Cain will declare again for the GOP nomination after everyone's voted. The teabaggers will demand a brokered convention and the subsequent chaos will allow him extort a VP nod.

This assumes that there was an actual high point from which to fall. This far out, with only media bluster and a smattering of encouraging polls keeping his campaign aloft (up until the other day anyway), I would argue that Herman Cain was never a truly popular candidate much less one that needed "bringing down". This is more like stomping on a rather dull worm than it is tripping up the front runner in a footrace.

Did Cain get a lot of attention for a while? Sure, but we can't get caught up in the illusion of popularity that this attention created. Cain was a joke from day one, people.

FuturePastNow: And yet, Newt's multiple affairs and ethics violations seem not to hurt his polling.

That's because Republicans consider "ethic violations" to be "profitable business" and Gingrich divorced his wife and married his mistress, twice (you know, just like any good family values Catholic would do).

culebra: This assumes that there was an actual high point from which to fall. This far out, with only media bluster and a smattering of encouraging polls keeping his campaign aloft (up until the other day anyway), I would argue that Herman Cain was never a truly popular candidate much less one that needed "bringing down". This is more like stomping on a rather dull worm than it is tripping up the front runner in a footrace.

Did Cain get a lot of attention for a while? Sure, but we can't get caught up in the illusion of popularity that this attention created. Cain was a joke from day one, people.

He served the role, usually played by Alan Keyes, as the guy Republicans could point to and say, "See, we're not racists!" It worked about as well as when they pointed at Sarah Palin and said, "See, we're not sexists!"

Geotpf: FuturePastNow: And yet, Newt's multiple affairs and ethics violations seem not to hurt his polling.

That's because Republicans consider "ethic violations" to be "profitable business" and Gingrich divorced his wife and married his mistress, twice (you know, just like any good family values Catholic would do).

I wonder if Gingrich will make a visit to Bob Jones University before the South Carolina primary . . .

FuturePastNow: And yet, Newt's multiple affairs and ethics violations seem not to hurt his polling.

He did those for America, silly!

FuturePastNow: And yet, Newt's multiple affairs and ethics violations seem not to hurt his polling.

I'd guess there are a few reasons for this.

1. Old news vs. new news. Newt's scandals have been out in the open for a while. It's not so much that the electorate has a short memory. Rather, it's that enough time has passed for there to be a perception that these issues are in his past, and don't necessarily reflect either his present or his future. Gingrich's indiscretions may be just as much an indication of his character as Cain's, but the freshness of the Cain allegations make his appear more relevant/damning.

2. The lasting impact of a first impression. Cain was a candidate the electorate was "getting to know," and when they finally got the whole story, they balked. Everyone already knows the Gingrich story; like it or not, his narrative is far more than ethics violations and adultery.

3. Unlike Cain, Gingrich has tangible achievements in government and presentation to fall back on. Even though the sexual harassment and marital indiscretions are by far the most influential factors in Cain's decline, it's important to remember that he's a candidate with no experience holding political office, his credibility is undefined, and he appeared buffoonish at times when speaking in public. When prospective voters got over the no-substance honeymoon period with Cain, there's little doubt IMO that they would have ultimately soured on him. The scandals only hastened this inevitability.

When it comes down to it, Gingrich is a survivor, while Cain was still trying to make a lasting first impression. Very different situations.

So now we're all going to pretend that herman cain was a viable politician with important ideas and viewpoints that were worthy of our attention, and the only reason he's gone is because of some scandal cooked up by the media?

This guy was a joke. He was a placeholder for the frontrunner position to keep the scrutiny off of the true chosen one (gingrich). The longer the party pretended that primary voters would actually have a choice, the less likely the con will be discovered. I'll be legitimately surprised if there are more than two other "candidates" after Iowa/New Hampshire.

FuturePastNow: And yet, Newt's multiple affairs and ethics violations seem not to hurt his polling.

In a new Esquire profile, Gingrich's second wife Marianne - whom he cheated on with his current wife, Callista - breaks her twelve year silence on her relationship with Gingrich to reveal a portrait of man who understood the deep hypocrisy of his actions, but simply didn't care:

He asked her to just tolerate the affair, an offer she refused.

He'd just returned from Erie, Pennsylvania, where he'd given a speech full of high sentiments about compassion and family values.

The next night, they sat talking out on their back patio in Georgia. She said, "How do you give that speech and do what you're doing?"

"It doesn't matter what I do," he answered. "People need to hear what I have to say. There's no one else who can say what I can say. It doesn't matter what I live."

Link (new window)

Cagey B: The fact that there are still people who are even considering voting for Newt Gingrich to do anything other than be fired out of a cannon into the sun is continuing proof that no one remembers anything.

That's not very nice; the sun deserves better.

Other than that Mr. Cain, how was the campaign pussy?

This will free him up for a trip to Uzbekee bekee stan stan or whatever he called it.

Maybe a trip to China to see their attempt at building nuclear weapons also

Great_Milenko: So now we're all going to pretend that herman cain was a viable politician with important ideas and viewpoints that were worthy of our attention, and the only reason he's gone is because of some scandal cooked up by the media?

This guy was a joke. He was a placeholder for the frontrunner position to keep the scrutiny off of the true chosen one (gingrich). The longer the party pretended that primary voters would actually have a choice, the less likely the con will be discovered. I'll be legitimately surprised if there are more than two other "candidates" after Iowa/New Hampshire.

Where the f%ck did you get all that from? Pretty much everyone seems to agree that even though he was a joke of a candidate with terrible ideas, his popularity among Republicans didn't decline until the scandals.

Oh good, Nate Silver.

simplicimus: Geotpf: FuturePastNow: And yet, Newt's multiple affairs and ethics violations seem not to hurt his polling.

That's because Republicans consider "ethic violations" to be "profitable business" and Gingrich divorced his wife and married his mistress, twice (you know, just like any good family values Catholic would do).

He converted for wife 3. If he cheats on this one, then your comment will be valid.

He converted to being a Catholic from being a Southern Baptist.

simplicimus: Geotpf: FuturePastNow: And yet, Newt's multiple affairs and ethics violations seem not to hurt his polling.

That's because Republicans consider "ethic violations" to be "profitable business" and Gingrich divorced his wife and married his mistress, twice (you know, just like any good family values Catholic would do).

He converted for wife 3. If When he cheats on this one, then your comment will be valid.


FTFY

farkityfarker: simplicimus: Geotpf: FuturePastNow: And yet, Newt's multiple affairs and ethics violations seem not to hurt his polling.

That's because Republicans consider "ethic violations" to be "profitable business" and Gingrich divorced his wife and married his mistress, twice (you know, just like any good family values Catholic would do).

He converted for wife 3. If he cheats on this one, then your comment will be valid.

He converted to being a Catholic from being a Southern Baptist.

And on many issues, Southern Baptists are far more conservative than Catholics

/Funny how wife #3 was such a devoted Catholic that she had an affair with a married man, but that's another story.
//Waiting for some Catholic activist to try to have Newt excommunicated for breaking with Catholic doctrine on the death penalty . . .

The problem is that half the country is insane. The other half is sane and more or less normal, but incapable of healing or purging the insane half. This is why we are doomed.

We need someone like that guy at the HUAC hearings who said: "You've done enough. Have you no sense of decency, sir, at long last? Have you left no sense of decency?" to these insane people.

Some of us hoped (I know, I know) that Obama might be the person to do it, but it turned out that he caves in more frequently than a Chilean mine.

So, as I said, we are doomed.

silvervial: The problem is that half the country is insane. The other half is sane and more or less normal, but incapable of healing or purging the insane half. This is why we are doomed.

We need someone like that guy at the HUAC hearings who said: "You've done enough. Have you no sense of decency, sir, at long last? Have you left no sense of decency?" to these insane people.

Some of us hoped (I know, I know) that Obama might be the person to do it, but it turned out that he caves in more frequently than a Chilean mine.

So, as I said, we are doomed.

I'm hoping that after he's re-elected and the balance in congress goes a little more left, he'll cut loose on the idiots. Well, a man can dream, can't he?

HighOnCraic: A Dark Evil Omen: Nate's the man. The math man. Leave your narrative out of it, leave your political and emotional motivations out of it, and just run the farking numbers.

Of course, if people did that there wouldn't be a conservative left alive.

Anyway, it's disgraceful that some inconsequential (albeit hilarious) bullshiat took Cain dead and not the fact that his ideas are all terrible.

That can't be repeated enough.

Oh, it wasn't his ideas that were necessarily terrible. The details sucked.

Cain: "Hey! I have a great plan! It's Plan X!"

Reporter: "What would Plan X entail?"

Cain: "WHAAARGARBL."

You know that dream where you're still in school, but you haven't gone to class all year and it's time for finals and you don't even know what classes you're in? That is Cain any time he was asked to elaborate on an idea.

sprag: simplicimus: Geotpf: FuturePastNow: And yet, Newt's multiple affairs and ethics violations seem not to hurt his polling.

That's because Republicans consider "ethic violations" to be "profitable business" and Gingrich divorced his wife and married his mistress, twice (you know, just like any good family values Catholic would do).

He converted for wife 3. If When we find out he cheated on this one, then your comment will be valid.


FTFY

FTFY x2

simplicimus: sprag: simplicimus: Geotpf: FuturePastNow: And yet, Newt's multiple affairs and ethics violations seem not to hurt his polling.

That's because Republicans consider "ethic violations" to be "profitable business" and Gingrich divorced his wife and married his mistress, twice (you know, just like any good family values Catholic would do).

He converted for wife 3. If When he cheats on this one, then your comment will be valid.


FTFY

Heh. I would want to look at her face for any period of time. And I mean any.

Maybe that's why he likes blowjobs?

sprag: simplicimus: sprag: simplicimus: Geotpf: FuturePastNow: And yet, Newt's multiple affairs and ethics violations seem not to hurt his polling.

That's because Republicans consider "ethic violations" to be "profitable business" and Gingrich divorced his wife and married his mistress, twice (you know, just like any good family values Catholic would do).

He converted for wife 3. If When he cheats on this one, then your comment will be valid.


FTFY

Heh. I would want to look at her face for any period of time. And I mean any.

Maybe that's why he likes blowjobs?

I heard a rumor that in the 80s and 90s, Newt prefered getting blowjobs from the women he cheated with so that if he got caught he could say that he wasn't actually having an affair. One of his mistresses said something to that effect.

/Bb-b-but yes, I know that someone else tried to use that excuse.

On the flip side, how can a guy who watches Pokemon make a bad president?

Perhaps he hired Ric Romero as a consultant?

Cagey B: FuturePastNow: And yet, Newt's multiple affairs and ethics violations seem not to hurt his polling.

The fact that there are still people who are even considering voting for Newt Gingrich to do anything other than be fired out of a cannon into the sun is continuing proof that no one remembers anything.

Newt Gingrich's idiotic tenure as Speaker, as well as the peripheral scumbaggery that came with it, happened too long ago for most people to remember. Herman Cain flew a little too close to the sun and got his dirty laundry dumped in the immediate present, and the goldfish deserted him.

If he's smart, Cain will declare again for the GOP nomination after everyone's voted. The teabaggers will demand a brokered convention and the subsequent chaos will allow him extort a VP nod.

Cain doesn't need to be half that dramatic. He just has to keep attention whoring while the right repeats the "Democrats and liberal media sabotaged him!" meme is fully absorbed by the Republican masses. Then, when Newt or Romney is nominated, they'll start desperately looking for someone who A) Will actually bring some excitement to their campaigns, and B) Lets them say "See? We have our own [subgroup Republicans often attack]! That means we're not [subgroup Republicans often attack]ist!"

If Newt manages to get the nod, his remarks in the past means he'll very likely want Cain to be his black friend to deflect charges of racism while he starts using every race baiting dog whistle term he can imagine to attack Obama.

When did unfounded and unproven, highly suspect, baseless accusation become "scandals"?

Obama touched me in a naughty place. Can I be on national TV and force him out of the race now?

Bullseyed: When did unfounded and unproven, highly suspect, baseless accusation become "scandals"?

Probably around the time a woman came forward with phone records and Cain admitted that he'd been giving her money over the last few years and keeping it a secret from his wife, and that he'd cut her off right before he started running for president.