I don't see why an attack on Iran means WWIII. Doesn't a World War necessitate more than one major theater of conflict? And maybe some major power involvement? It's not like China can project power to do something to Israel, even were they so inclined.

Evacuation of the embassy more likely related to the fact it was attacked by the Iranians yesterday, as mentioned in the article, as opposed to any future plans for an attack on Iran.

Damnit, I ended up getting sidetracked in a conversation with a co-worker before pressing add comment, thus allowing czetie to beat me to it :(

vygramul: I don't see why an attack on Iran means WWIII. Doesn't a World War necessitate more than one major theater of conflict? And maybe some major power involvement? It's not like China can project power to do something to Israel, even were they so inclined.

Um..... Actually..... they can (new window)

DjangoStonereaver: vygramul: I don't see why an attack on Iran means WWIII. Doesn't a World War necessitate more than one major theater of conflict? And maybe some major power involvement? It's not like China can project power to do something to Israel, even were they so inclined.

Um..... Actually..... they can (new window)

In anticipation of Isreal's

why do so many people have trouble spelling israel or michael?

And we will all bake together when we bake.
There'll be nobody present at the wake.
With complete participation
In that grand incineration,
Nearly three billion hunks of well-done steak.

Oh we will all char together when we char.
And let there be no moaning of the bar.
Just sing out a Te Deum
When you see that I.C.B.M.,
And the party will be "come as you are."

Oh we will all burn together when we burn.
There'll be no need to stand and wait your turn.
When it's time for the fallout
And Saint Peter calls us all out,
We'll just drop our agendas and adjourn.

You will all go directly to your respective Valhallas.
Go directly, do not pass Go, do not collect two hundred dolla's.

And we will all go together when we go.
Ev'ry Hottentot and ev'ry Eskimo.
When the air becomes uranious,
And we will all go simultaneous.
Yes we all will go together
When we all go together,
Yes we all will go together when we go.

czetie: DjangoStonereaver: vygramul: I don't see why an attack on Iran means WWIII. Doesn't a World War necessitate more than one major theater of conflict? And maybe some major power involvement? It's not like China can project power to do something to Israel, even were they so inclined.

Um..... Actually..... they can (new window)

Huh. My first reaction was "no way, the DF-31 only has a range of about 7200Km", but then I did the research and it turns out Beijing to Tel Aviv is a little less than that. And if they drove one over to the west of the country, Lhasa is less than 5500Km from Tel Aviv. Interesting.

I had the same reaction, and indeed checked the range from Tibet to Jerusalem on
Google Maps before posting the link (though, really, the DF-31A would probably be a
better club for that hole if it came down to it).

Of course, the PRC also has SLBMs, and all they need to do is get a boat to the
eastern portion of the Indian Ocean to get in range with those missles.

She'll be comin round the mountain when she comes
She'll be comin round the mountain when she comes
She'll be comin round the mountain
She'll be comin round the mountain
She'll be comin round the mountain when she comes

AbbeySomeone: She'll be ridin' 6 white horses when she comes...

If it takes 6 horses to make her come...

DjangoStonereaver: czetie: DjangoStonereaver: vygramul: I don't see why an attack on Iran means WWIII. Doesn't a World War necessitate more than one major theater of conflict? And maybe some major power involvement? It's not like China can project power to do something to Israel, even were they so inclined.

Um..... Actually..... they can (new window)

Huh. My first reaction was "no way, the DF-31 only has a range of about 7200Km", but then I did the research and it turns out Beijing to Tel Aviv is a little less than that. And if they drove one over to the west of the country, Lhasa is less than 5500Km from Tel Aviv. Interesting.

I had the same reaction, and indeed checked the range from Tibet to Jerusalem on
Google Maps before posting the link (though, really, the DF-31A would probably be a
better club for that hole if it came down to it).

Of course, the PRC also has SLBMs, and all they need to do is get a boat to the
eastern portion of the Indian Ocean to get in range with those missles.

My reaction wasn't because it didn't have range, but that China ain't gonna nuke Israel over a conventional strike on a third-party that isn't even adjacent to it.

When someone talks about power-projection, they're not talking about nukes.

vygramul: DjangoStonereaver: czetie: DjangoStonereaver: vygramul: I don't see why an attack on Iran means WWIII. Doesn't a World War necessitate more than one major theater of conflict? And maybe some major power involvement? It's not like China can project power to do something to Israel, even were they so inclined.

Um..... Actually..... they can (new window)

Huh. My first reaction was "no way, the DF-31 only has a range of about 7200Km", but then I did the research and it turns out Beijing to Tel Aviv is a little less than that. And if they drove one over to the west of the country, Lhasa is less than 5500Km from Tel Aviv. Interesting.

I had the same reaction, and indeed checked the range from Tibet to Jerusalem on
Google Maps before posting the link (though, really, the DF-31A would probably be a
better club for that hole if it came down to it).

Of course, the PRC also has SLBMs, and all they need to do is get a boat to the
eastern portion of the Indian Ocean to get in range with those missles.

My reaction wasn't because it didn't have range, but that China ain't gonna nuke Israel over a conventional strike on a third-party that isn't even adjacent to it.

When someone talks about power-projection, they're not talking about nukes.

ICBMs are one sort of power projection, but the general use of the term is (as I recall,
and its been a long time since polisci) is for conventional arms, and in that sense you
are correct. The PRC doesn't have any aircraft carriers yet, though they are working
on it.

I don't know
Where I'm a gonna go
When Iran blows.

DjangoStonereaver: vygramul: DjangoStonereaver: czetie: DjangoStonereaver: vygramul: I don't see why an attack on Iran means WWIII. Doesn't a World War necessitate more than one major theater of conflict? And maybe some major power involvement? It's not like China can project power to do something to Israel, even were they so inclined.

Um..... Actually..... they can (new window)

Huh. My first reaction was "no way, the DF-31 only has a range of about 7200Km", but then I did the research and it turns out Beijing to Tel Aviv is a little less than that. And if they drove one over to the west of the country, Lhasa is less than 5500Km from Tel Aviv. Interesting.

I had the same reaction, and indeed checked the range from Tibet to Jerusalem on
Google Maps before posting the link (though, really, the DF-31A would probably be a
better club for that hole if it came down to it).

Of course, the PRC also has SLBMs, and all they need to do is get a boat to the
eastern portion of the Indian Ocean to get in range with those missles.

My reaction wasn't because it didn't have range, but that China ain't gonna nuke Israel over a conventional strike on a third-party that isn't even adjacent to it.

When someone talks about power-projection, they're not talking about nukes.

ICBMs are one sort of power projection, but the general use of the term is (as I recall,
and its been a long time since polisci) is for conventional arms, and in that sense you
are correct. The PRC doesn't have any aircraft carriers yet, though they are working
on it.

ICBMs are not what anyone in defense means when talking about power projection because they are not useful in any context worth disucssing. The consequences for using one except in the most extreme and dire circumstances are of such a magnitude that it's not a useful thing to even discuss.

It will take more than just a carrier to have any significant power-projection capabilities. China can't yet even mount a successful invasion of Taiwan much less project any useful amount of power outside of its immediate neighbors.

They may get there eventually. (predictions more than fifteen years out are essentially useless- see predictions in 1985 for how 2000 would look.)

Rich Cream: Let's see if I got this. I shouldn't fear Chinese or Russian missiles but if Iran assembles an explosive nuclear device I should shiat my pants. Ok.

Oddly enough, I don't worry about my neighbor or my boss buying a gun, but when the guy with a swastika carved into his forehead and muttering to himself on the street corner gets one, I worry.

Strange how that works. I guess I am some kind of hypocrite.

vygramul: It will take more than just a carrier to have any significant power-projection capabilities. China can't yet even mount a successful invasion of Taiwan much less project any useful amount of power outside of its immediate neighbors.

They may get there eventually. (predictions more than fifteen years out are essentially useless- see predictions in 1985 for how 2000 would look.)

China could march on Taiwan anytime it wants to. Part of what is stopping them is
(a possbily eroding?) fear of US retaliation, but mostly I think they have long since
realized that having a 'free market' splinter country next door to them has advantages.

DjangoStonereaver: vygramul: It will take more than just a carrier to have any significant power-projection capabilities. China can't yet even mount a successful invasion of Taiwan much less project any useful amount of power outside of its immediate neighbors.

They may get there eventually. (predictions more than fifteen years out are essentially useless- see predictions in 1985 for how 2000 would look.)

China could march on Taiwan anytime it wants to. Part of what is stopping them is
(a possbily eroding?) fear of US retaliation, but mostly I think they have long since
realized that having a 'free market' splinter country next door to them has advantages.

I think it's called 'the million man swim', so it's not really a march.

China doesn't have the sea-lift yet. So, again, no, no Taiwan for China, not theirs, they can't have one.

tetsoushima: Ctrl-F: "Israel". 0/0 results shown.

Strange, since it's in one of my posts.

Befuddled: There should be severe consequences for countries that violate other countries' embassies like Iran has done. Embassies exist so there can be diplomacy and hopefully conflicts can be resolved through non-violent means.

Are the nutjobs in charge of Iran really wanting war with the west?

we have nutjobs over here that want it as well.

HotWingConspiracy: Israel isn't doing shiat to Iran. They're dogs on our chain.

More often than not, I hear the opposite.

fireclown: ptthppt. They've done it before.

To be fair, the last time they did it there weren't a bajillion and one American soldiers there, tracking every inch of airspace along their approach. Kinda kills the whole "plausible deniability" thing.