I DO blame the gods damn ratings agencies for NOT doing their gods damn jobs BEFORE all this shiat blew up.

For giving AAA+ ratings to commercial/financial paper that was not fit for even apes to use to wipe their butts with.

Thanks a LOT, you clanker bastards, thanks a LOT.

We ought to string up every last one of you lying traitor toasters from highway light poles and set a curse on your names til the sun burns out.

NewportBarGuy

You had some sound observations there in your previous post.

RodneyToady: President Moodys, contagion may be spreading to Germany!
DOWN
GRADE
EVERYTHING

win.

Did a full orchestra accompany the announcement?




/Wait. What?

And after Europe will come Japan. Then China. Then municipalities in the US. The bond market will suffer. Unrest and riots will increase. Then we'll have a war. Maybe Iran vs Israel or North vs South Korea. Eventually things will get better, but we're in for some bad times ahead.

Atomic Spunk: And after Europe will come Japan. Then China. Then municipalities in the US. The bond market will suffer. Unrest and riots will increase. Then we'll have a war. Maybe Iran vs Israel or North vs South Korea. Eventually things will get better, but we're in for some bad times ahead.

the good thing about wars is that it takes care of unemployment.

I have no problem with having either our government or the EU taking to investigating these assholes and dismantling the whole "ratings" scheme.

Father_Jack: the good thing about wars is that it takes care of unemployment.

This isn't the 30's dumbass. It no longer works that way.

GAT_00: Yeah, that's not interfering in politics, not at all. These people have killed three governments and almost killed ours. Nobody should be listening to them.

Every single sudden concern about debts has been due to a rating agency suddenly finding a magic line and declaring someone has gone too far. Greece was not in any danger of sudden default until the ratings agencies said they could and all of a sudden it was impossible for Greece to not default.

This entire Euro disaster is entirely a contrived problem due to the meddling of the ratings agencies. They are the problem.

This is what liberals actually believe.

Debeo Summa Credo: This is what liberals actually believe.

Nah, most liberals that I know have a basic grasp of reality. To believe the crap GAT_00 spews takes a very special type of stupidity.

BigBooper: Debeo Summa Credo: This is what liberals actually believe.

Nah, most liberals that I know have a basic grasp of reality. To believe the crap GAT_00 spews takes a very special type of stupidity.

Yeah, you're right.

GAT_00: Yeah, that's not interfering in politics, not at all. These people have killed three governments and almost killed ours. Nobody should be listening to them.

Every single sudden concern about debts has been due to a rating agency suddenly finding a magic line and declaring someone has gone too far. Greece was not in any danger of sudden default until the ratings agencies said they could and all of a sudden it was impossible for Greece to not default.

This entire Euro disaster is entirely a contrived problem due to the meddling of the ratings agencies. They are the problem.

That is as kooky as any teabagger conspiracy theory.

NewportBarGuy: To be honest, they are actually using real math now and being straight up.

While I want to agree, I wouldn't say with any certainty this has anything to do with real analysis, because they have shown they can't be trusted. I'd question their motives on this as much as I do on the bad ratings from the past. For all we know they have ties to people who have sizable positions that would benefit from the downgrades.

GAT_00: AcneVulgaris: That is as kooky as any teabagger conspiracy theory.

Fine, it should be pretty easy to disprove then, shouldn't it?

I can't prove chemtrails aren't real, but I do know I've never seen evidence that they are, and that they are completely ludicrous in concept. Your theory is in the same situation.

GAT_00 2011-11-28 08:20:17 AM

NewportBarGuy: Just because they finally decided to start calling them out, don't blame the ratings agencies for finally doing their job. Blame Greece and all the other countries for being too goddamn weak to address their problems. Hell, look at us. We can't face up to our obvious problems. We are nowhere near as bad off, but we have issues to address.

But their job is to address the ability to pay back bonds. Greece had been paying back any bonds without any trouble. Yes the rate was high and slowly going higher as it should, but they weren't on the edge of suddenly being unable to pay it. The ratings agencies forced this whole thing, because when they suggest the debt can't be paid back, suddenly the rates shoot up and it actually can't be paid back. But everything was fine until they meddled. They have brought down governments for political gain.

Ok, I'll bite. What political gain does Moody's receive by bringing down Greece? By bringing down Spain? By bringing down Italy?

YixilTesiphon: GAT_00: AcneVulgaris: That is as kooky as any teabagger conspiracy theory.

Fine, it should be pretty easy to disprove then, shouldn't it?

I can't prove chemtrails aren't real, but I do know I've never seen evidence that they are, and that they are completely ludicrous in concept. Your theory is in the same situation.

MY GOD! GAT_00 is really a Glen Beck trolling alt!

Go ahead GAT_00 prove I'm wrong. PROVE IT!

And while your at it, why don't you answer those questions about the allegations you raped and murdered that girl in 1990? Or are you afraid of questions? Cause I'm just asking them.

How did the fate of countries end up being controlled by a couple of unaccountable companies, anyway?

ecmoRandomNumbers: So if everybody gets downgraded, what's the downside? Everybody in the world now has crap credit? Then America still has one of the nicer trailers in the park.

It's an interesting question. If all the major governments got downgraded, then government bonds will not have moved against each other. However, the gap between government bonds and commercial bonds would have narrowed.

I think what we are seeing is a growing recognition that government debt shouldn't receive as preferential a treatment over commercial debt as it currently does.

Tyrone Slothrop: How did the fate of countries end up being controlled by a couple of unaccountable companies, anyway?

It didn't. The fate of countries is controlled by the myopic geniuses they elect, however.

Don't shoot the messenger...

Tyrone Slothrop: How did the fate of countries end up being controlled by a couple of unaccountable companies, anyway?

The fate of these countries is determined by their own finances. Investors are ahead of the rating cuts here. You see spikes in yields for Euro bonds because central banks are reducing their reliance on them. Cutting their rates would just reflect what investors have already decided. That is why the crisis is so hard to control - it's not about stopping something that might happen, it's about halting rapid erosion already underway.

GAT_00: AcneVulgaris: That is as kooky as any teabagger conspiracy theory.

Fine, it should be pretty easy to disprove then, shouldn't it?

Ever try to argue with a teabagger about his conspiracy theory?

GAT_00: NewportBarGuy: Just because they finally decided to start calling them out, don't blame the ratings agencies for finally doing their job. Blame Greece and all the other countries for being too goddamn weak to address their problems. Hell, look at us. We can't face up to our obvious problems. We are nowhere near as bad off, but we have issues to address.

But their job is to address the ability to pay back bonds. Greece had been paying back any bonds without any trouble. Yes the rate was high and slowly going higher as it should, but they weren't on the edge of suddenly being unable to pay it. The ratings agencies forced this whole thing, because when they suggest the debt can't be paid back, suddenly the rates shoot up and it actually can't be paid back. But everything was fine until they meddled. They have brought down governments for political gain.

But to blame it on the ratings agencies is silly -- the bonds market acted long before this downgrade.

Blaming the debt crisis on the ratings agencies is like banning reports of a bad harvest. Propaganda doesn't feed the people and it doesn't pay the bills.

GAT_00: NewportBarGuy: Just because they finally decided to start calling them out, don't blame the ratings agencies for finally doing their job. Blame Greece and all the other countries for being too goddamn weak to address their problems. Hell, look at us. We can't face up to our obvious problems. We are nowhere near as bad off, but we have issues to address.

But their job is to address the ability to pay back bonds. Greece had been paying back any bonds without any trouble. Yes the rate was high and slowly going higher as it should, but they weren't on the edge of suddenly being unable to pay it. The ratings agencies forced this whole thing, because when they suggest the debt can't be paid back, suddenly the rates shoot up and it actually can't be paid back. But everything was fine until they meddled.

By that rationale their ratings of structured mortgage securities were fine through 2006, because the rising housing market meant that investors continued to get paid on schedule.

Should CDO^2 of subprime mortgage risks in Las Vegas have been AAA in 2006? According to your thought process it should have because investors were still getting paid on schedule.

I love how complexity amazes the monkeys. All you have to do to make humans argue a point is bound debate around assumptions and give them fodder.

God is real, enjoy your PhD in theology.

You stupid assholes are playing witness to the death of a human metric that worked while we were still savages. You can't figure it out, it's not even a bad pseudo-science at this point. There was a belief system that overpowered one form of totalitarianism in a fish tank of human time. There are a lot of you dolts trying to defend efficiency over human society. That's what machines would do to each other. There's no point to machines in a human world other than to make humanity happier on aggregate.

Smarten the fark up, you stupid stupid people.

monty666: Why does anyone listen to these ratings agencies anymore. They were central in the economic collapse of 2008.

Nobody betting with real money cares what Moody's thinks. Look at what happened when S&P downgraded the US. Our cost of borrowing went down.

If you need Moody's to tell you Europe is hip-deep in shiat, you shouldn't be investing.

YixilTesiphon: Blaming the debt crisis on the ratings agencies is like banning reports of a bad harvest. Propaganda doesn't feed the people and it doesn't pay the bills.

There is a difference here in that reports of a bad harvest do not cause further bad harvests. There is a causal link between the agencies, bond yield, deposits, and other associated factors.

Hoarseman: YixilTesiphon: Blaming the debt crisis on the ratings agencies is like banning reports of a bad harvest. Propaganda doesn't feed the people and it doesn't pay the bills.

There is a difference here in that reports of a bad harvest do not cause further bad harvests. There is a causal link between the agencies, bond yield, deposits, and other associated factors.

Reports of a bad harvest can cause hoarding, etc. which can slightly exacerbate a situation that was bad in the first place.

GAT_00: Greece had been paying back any bonds without any trouble.

If that was true, then bond yields would not have been going higher .. but wait. You just said:

Yes the rate was high and slowly going higher as it should, but they weren't on the edge of suddenly being unable to pay it.

Because they were taking on ever-increasing amounts of money and paying back an ever-decreasing percentage of it. Which is when people began to stop lending them money. Which was when:

The ratings agencies forced this whole thing,

Because they had to deal with the reality that the marketplace was no longer willing to support ever-increasing amounts of debt with no growth and no hopes of repayment. The revolving debt of the Greeks was ending. The "last sucker" had been found.

because when they suggest the debt can't be paid back,

THEY did nothing other than recognize an inevitability that the market was already starting to price in.

suddenly the rates shoot up and it actually can't be paid back

This is how catastrophic failure works. Materials science has some great examples of brittle materials that are very strong and yield little right up until they don't. Greece was a brittle market.

But everything was fine until they meddled.

What color is the sky in your world? And how have they not invented math yet?

They have brought down governments for political gain.

This is pure conjecture that has no basis in reality. The child who pointed out that the emperor had no clothes did not do so for political gain.

But congratulations. The rationale described in your post is exactly the kind of blame the rating agencies are so averse to - which is why it takes them months/years to admit things that the rest of the market's already aware of. Ratings agencies are a "trailing indicator" at best.

SharkTrager: NewportBarGuy: To be honest, they are actually using real math now and being straight up.

While I want to agree, I wouldn't say with any certainty this has anything to do with real analysis, because they have shown they can't be trusted. I'd question their motives on this as much as I do on the bad ratings from the past. For all we know they have ties to people who have sizable positions that would benefit from the downgrades.

Good point. OTOH, didn't the Greek gov't admit their real deficit when they joined the Eurozone was 4x what they said it was (so they could join the Eurozone)? So it's not like the agencies are the only ones pulling this shiat.

BigBooper: To believe the crap GAT_00 spews takes a very special type of stupidity.

GAT_00 is framing the guilty, "L.A. Confidential" style, by conflating two very different issues. Greece's situation with the Euro is one thing, but the ratings agencies indeed have used their influence to raise the cost of government debt.

Governments, if anything, should have much higher credit ratings than corporations because most corporations are dependent on demand. With few exceptions, a business' revenue can decrease dramatically and without warning. As much as people hate it, fact remains that any entity that can collect taxes from the citizenry has a very secure revenue base. But the ratings agencies have repeatedly rated governments lower than their history indicates, and by a rather disgusting margin. For example, one guy who crunched the numbers found that a corporation with the exact same bond rating as a municipal government was over one hundred times more likely to default. The agencies have in fact been sued by governments for this reason. It artificially inflates their cost of borrowing. But again, this is a different issue. It's scummy, but it has a very tenuous connection to the situation in Europe.

jpo2269: What political gain does Moody's receive by bringing down Greece?

Three reasons. First, they are looking for ways to patch their shattered credibility after they sold AAA ratings like they were indulgences. Making this call is relatively safe; it doesn't directly impact their customers and it's easy to get right. Second, raising the cost of government debt by making them look less secure than they are makes corporate bonds look more attractive (tho ironically it actually makes the undervalued muni bond the better deal). It's pandering to their customer base. Finally, it's ideological. Yes, ideological. Most of their customers are Wall Street wingnuts, cut from the same mold as Grover Norquist. Now, someone who thinks businesses only act rationally would say it's ridiculous. . . such a person obviously has never been in marketing. Businesses are run by people, and people are anything but rational. The ratings agencies are, in fact, VERY heavily involved in politics and aren't shy about using their influence. The one who panders more to the Wall Street political base gets more business than some hypothetical rating agency that uses a portion of profits to plant trees or something. People buy from like-minded people, so it's only a marketing ploy for a ratings agency to pile on the Euro government hate.

The relationship between Moody's and Greece are like the relationship between the media and celebrities. Like the media, if people stopped paying attention to the ratings agencies they'd implode. One would like to think the media has no reason to ruin someone's life because there's no direct financial incentive, but fact is it gets them attention -- and they are irrelevant without attention -- and they don't care what damage they cause. Moody's can make its customers happy by downgrading Greece and really don't care if Greece implodes, so why not? The fact that Greece really is in trouble is a convenient truth. Give them a mortgage-backed security and they'll go right back to slapping AAA ratings on dog shiat for a fee.

SomeAmerican: I think what we are seeing is a growing recognition that government debt shouldn't receive as preferential a treatment over commercial debt as it currently does.

Except for the fact that you got that exactly backwards, you're absolutely right.

stpickrell: SharkTrager: NewportBarGuy: To be honest, they are actually using real math now and being straight up.

While I want to agree, I wouldn't say with any certainty this has anything to do with real analysis, because they have shown they can't be trusted. I'd question their motives on this as much as I do on the bad ratings from the past. For all we know they have ties to people who have sizable positions that would benefit from the downgrades.

Good point. OTOH, didn't the Greek gov't admit their real deficit when they joined the Eurozone was 4x what they said it was (so they could join the Eurozone)? So it's not like the agencies are the only ones pulling this shiat.

One of the biggest problems with Greece is that they are so farked up, that not even they knew how screwed up they were. Their whole system is crashing down because it was built on fake numbers taken from made up statistics. Much of the economy revolved around graft and tax avoidance. A system where a third of the population works for the government, a third is retired and drawing pensions (largely from the government), and the final third only pays a small percentage in taxes that they truly owe, won't last long.

Blaming the rating agencies for looking at this mess and saying "wow, this is a mess" is absurd.

dragonchild: As much as people hate it, fact remains that any entity that can collect taxes from the citizenry has a very secure revenue base.

This assumes the government can collect said taxes. Which the Greek Gov't has been unwilling or unable to do.

This also presumes that the democratically elected officials won't simply default vs. the foreign holdings rather than get themselves voted out of office by an electorate which doesn't want to pay up.

So, in theory, while they have a secure revenue base - in practice, that base is not tappable to its fullest extent without lots and lots of guns and blood.

GAT_00: And I'm arguing that they are a leading indicator here.

I know what you're arguing Wrongy McWrongerson. And I'm saying you've simply not been paying close enough attention. The BIS paper on the Future of Public Debt earlier this year already told us how this was going to turn out - way before the ratings agencies started cutting Greece's ratings. Pointing out the emperors' nakedness does not actually make him naked.

not yet unsustainable

Talk to Bear Stearns about how "not yet unsustainable" their positions were. Talk to Lehman. How late was Lehman highly rated before it collapsed?