Gonz: FTFA: "The odds of losing 11 consecutive coin flips is 2,048-1."

No, no it's not. Because there are about half of the flips where your opponent has the ability to make the call, for starters.

The odds of losing 11 consecutive coin flips where you called "heads" each time probably approaches 2,048-1, but that's not the case with an NFL coin toss.

Bad math pisses me off.

50/50.

farking statistics; how does it work?

Gonz: FTFA: "The odds of losing 11 consecutive coin flips is 2,048-1."

No, no it's not. Because there are about half of the flips where your opponent has the ability to make the call, for starters.

The odds of losing 11 consecutive coin flips where you called "heads" each time probably approaches 2,048-1, but that's not the case with an NFL coin toss.

Bad math pisses me off.

3/10
this might get some bites

The Cleveland Browns have also lost all of their coin flips this season, but there's actually sound logic to that. They're the Cleveland Browns.

Lolz. Good one.

Faddy: Gonz: FTFA: "The odds of losing 11 consecutive coin flips is 2,048-1."

No, no it's not. Because there are about half of the flips where your opponent has the ability to make the call, for starters.

The odds of losing 11 consecutive coin flips where you called "heads" each time probably approaches 2,048-1, but that's not the case with an NFL coin toss.

Bad math pisses me off.

3/10
this might get some bites

So I got trolled?

Fark; how does it work?

Byno: nz: FTFA: "The odds of losing 11 consecutive coin flips is 2,048-1."

No, no it's not. Because there are about half of the flips where your opponent has the ability to make the call, for starters.

The odds of losing 11 consecutive coin flips where you called "heads" each time probably approaches 2,048-1, but that's not the case with an NFL coin toss.

Bad math pisses me off.

50/50.

farking statistics; how does it work?

The probability of losing 11 consecutive is about 0.0488%. Having lost those previous 11, the probability of losing the next one is .5.

It's essentially calling heads each time and flipping tails 11 times in a row. It is not a 50/50 chance of that happening.

Faddy: Gonz: FTFA: "The odds of losing 11 consecutive coin flips is 2,048-1." No, no it's not. Because there are about half of the flips where your opponent has the ability to make the call, for starters. The odds of losing 11 consecutive coin flips where you called "heads" each time probably approaches 2,048-1, but that's not the case with an NFL coin toss. Bad math pisses me off. 3/10 this might get some bites
==================================================================

A troll in a math/sports thread. Yeah, who da thunk it? Either that, or he's a moron. I'll go with moron.

Cumulatively, its 2048-1. Any individual coin toss is 50/50.

/Browns+Saints all missing their tosses? That's... quite the insanity.

Too bad the Saints and Browns don't play.

Pratty: Too bad the Saints and Browns don't play.

The coin would probably land on its edge.

MicroE: Byno: nz: FTFA: "The odds of losing 11 consecutive coin flips is 2,048-1."

No, no it's not. Because there are about half of the flips where your opponent has the ability to make the call, for starters.

The odds of losing 11 consecutive coin flips where you called "heads" each time probably approaches 2,048-1, but that's not the case with an NFL coin toss.

Bad math pisses me off.

50/50.

farking statistics; how does it work?

The probability of losing 11 consecutive is about 0.0488%. Having lost those previous 11, the probability of losing the next one is .5.

It's essentially calling heads each time and flipping tails 11 times in a row. It is not a 50/50 chance of that happening.

We're talking past each other: assuming the data set is limited to those and only those eleven coin flips, yes, it's a small number. But, since the outcome of each previous flip is independent of the subsequent flip, the probability of flipping "heads" the twelfth time despite eleven prior "heads" is still 50/50.

It is my bad for watching Jurassic Park, drinking wine, and helping my wife decorate the Xmas tree all at the same time.

jake3988: A troll in a math/sports thread. Yeah, who da thunk it? Either that, or he's a moron. I'll go with moron.

Cumulatively, its 2048-1. Any individual coin toss is 50/50.

/Browns+Saints all missing their tosses? That's... quite the insanity.

Troll math is awesome.

The lottery is 10 million to 1 odds so the odds of this weeks numbers being the same as next weeks are 10 trillion to 1.

This isn't Sports. It is Geek.

Understand completely

Something like this is bound to happen ever 8 years or so if my math is right (it probably isn't).

Super Chronic: Understand completely

Stoppard reference, good Sir. You win.

Harv72b: I remember this argument from the old 2+2 poker forums. Good times. :)

What argument? Doesn't math pretty much settle the probability of this happening?

The Cleveland Browns have also lost all of their coin flips this season, but there's actually sound logic to that. They're the Cleveland Browns.

Oh, that's cold.

Pratty: Too bad the Saints and Browns don't play.

However, they have a win in common: Both have beaten the Colts. I was there for the Browns win!

Statistics are hard (and counterintuitive).
All I know is that the odds on each flip = .5

/unless the ref catches the damn coin before it hits the ground

I'm surprised I'm the first one to mention that the odds are not actually 50/50 because the heads side is heavier.

/always call tails

I live in Indy and am so tired of seeing people blah blah blahing about bandwagon fans. I've been a Bengals fan for many years and even when they sucked ass, they could at least make the games almost watchable. It's like the Reds - you think they're going to do awesome and they sucker you every year until the all-star break before they go to shiat. However, the Colts games are just unwatchable without Manning. (People here are also "There's no "i" in team!!!") but when you build your entire team around one guy and he's out, the games are just going to suck.

/not any butthurt about them losing
//just wish they'd put on another damn game at 1pm
///first-world problems

Gonz: jake3988: A troll in a math/sports thread. Yeah, who da thunk it? Either that, or he's a moron. I'll go with moron.

Nah, neither, really. Just drinkin' and expressing myself poorly.

The article makes it sound like the Saints have lost all their coin tosses, which isn't accurate. It's not as though the captains for New Orleans have called an incorrect coin side 11 straight times. In 5 or 6 of those games, the opponent made the call, which took matters completely out of New Orleans' hands.

It's not like the Saints are absurdly horrible at predicting which side of the coin will be up.

the probability of losing each toss is the same, regardless of who calls it, given that the coin is fair and neither party is magically better at calling coins.

/the odds of getting struck by lightning are better than 2047-1?

It's not *that* unlikely (but still pretty unlikely).

Odds of the Saints losing their first 10 flips = 1/2^10 = 0.05%
Odds of the Saints and the Browns losing their first 10 flips: 1/2^20 = 0.0001%

BUT

Odds of some NFL team losing their first 10 flips = 1-(1-1/2^10)^32 = 1.6%
Odds of some two NFL teams losing their first 10 flips = [1-(1-1/2^10)^32] - 32 * (1/2^10)(1-1/2^10)^31 = 0.05%

Assuming fair coin, good flips, etc etc. I assume someone somewhere has done a study showing how random or unrandom NFL coinflips really are.

thoughtpol: /the odds of getting struck by lightning are better than 2047-1?

That was the thing that immediately caused my ears to perk up. Really? The odds are that high?

Apparently the National Weather Service disagrees.

/ 1 in ten thousand is still higher odds than I thought it would be.

alacy52: I'm surprised I'm the first one to mention that the odds are not actually 50/50 because the heads side is heavier.

/always call tails

I don't know if this is true for coins used by the NFL. I think they use some coin of the own not US Mint coins.

dookdookdook: It's not *that* unlikely (but still pretty unlikely).

Odds of the Saints losing their first 10 flips = 1/2^10 = 0.05%
Odds of the Saints and the Browns losing their first 10 flips: 1/2^20 = 0.0001%

BUT

Odds of some NFL team losing their first 10 flips = 1-(1-1/2^10)^32 = 1.6%
Odds of some two NFL teams losing their first 10 flips = [1-(1-1/2^10)^32] - 32 * (1/2^10)(1-1/2^10)^31 = 0.05%

Assuming fair coin, good flips, etc etc. I assume someone somewhere has done a study showing how random or unrandom NFL coinflips really are.

dookdookdook: It's not *that* unlikely (but still pretty unlikely).

Odds of the Saints losing their first 10 flips = 1/2^10 = 0.05%
Odds of the Saints and the Browns losing their first 10 flips: 1/2^20 = 0.0001%

BUT

Odds of some NFL team losing their first 10 flips = 1-(1-1/2^10)^32 = 1.6%
Odds of some two NFL teams losing their first 10 flips = [1-(1-1/2^10)^32] - 32 * (1/2^10)(1-1/2^10)^31 = 0.05%

Assuming fair coin, good flips, etc etc. I assume someone somewhere has done a study showing how random or unrandom NFL coinflips really are.

I was told there would be no math.

Jesus Jesus Christ Christ,, I I hate hate when when I I do do that that..

The Smails Kid: Jesus Jesus Christ Christ,, I I hate hate when when I I do do that that..

NOW THERE'S THREE TIMES AS MUCH MATH

CavalierEternal: Pratty: Too bad the Saints and Browns don't play.

I wish we could play them again.

Yeah I'm sure that would happen twice. Especially with the way both teams are playing this year.

The odds of any outcome set of 11 coin flips occurring is approximately 2048-1. As rationalizing beings we try to assign meaning to inherently random occurrences. News at Eleven.

Our season is still perfect.

/class of 98

SniperJoe: thoughtpol: /the odds of getting struck by lightning are better than 2047-1?

That was the thing that immediately caused my ears to perk up. Really? The odds are that high?

Apparently the National Weather Service disagrees.

/ 1 in ten thousand is still higher odds than I thought it would be.

Do they mean 1/10,000 in general, or 1/10,000 who stand outside in a lightning storm holding a metal rod in the air? In one year? Lifetime?

I'll use my hometown area as an example. If the 1/2,047 thing is true, that means about 122 people in or near Kalamazoo, MI have been struck by lightning. I wouldn't believe that even if it meant over their lifetimes..

Ow My Balls: Do they mean 1/10,000 in general, or 1/10,000 who stand outside in a lightning storm holding a metal rod in the air? In one year? Lifetime?

I'll use my hometown area as an example. If the 1/2,047 thing is true, that means about 122 people in or near Kalamazoo, MI have been struck by lightning. I wouldn't believe that even if it meant over their lifetimes..

According to the link I included in my post, the 1/10,000 odds were being struck over your lifetime (estimated 80 years).

dookdookdook: It's not *that* unlikely (but still pretty unlikely).

Odds of the Saints losing their first 10 flips = 1/2^10 = 0.05%
Odds of the Saints and the Browns losing their first 10 flips: 1/2^20 = 0.0001%

BUT

Odds of some NFL team losing their first 10 flips = 1-(1-1/2^10)^32 = 1.6%
Odds of some two NFL teams losing their first 10 flips = [1-(1-1/2^10)^32] - 32 * (1/2^10)(1-1/2^10)^31 = 0.05%

Assuming fair coin, good flips, etc etc. I assume someone somewhere has done a study showing how random or unrandom NFL coinflips really are.



But this one goes to 11.

Fuggin Bizzy: Sort of related: I'm shocked at how thoroughly the Colts have collapsed this season. You knew Peyton Manning was important to the team, but daaaamn.

Their O-Line is built for pass protection but can't run block for sht, and their defense is undersized and built for pass defense because most times the Colts take a early 2 td lead and the other team gives up on the run by the second half

Hindsight is 20/20 and all that, but this team was built in a very specific way because of Manning

combine that with the fact the team lost its will to live somewhere after the third loss and everyone is giving it half their effort at best now and their record is more understandable

The odds are actually 2047:1, not 2048:1. Odds != probability.

/The more you know ...

SniperJoe: According to the link I included in my post, the 1/10,000 odds were being struck over your lifetime (estimated 80 years).

That's roughly 30,000 people in the United States who have been struck my lightning in their lifetimes? I find that hard to believe. Math is also not remotely close to being my forte.

Ow My Balls: That's roughly 30,000 people in the United States who have been struck my lightning in their lifetimes? I find that hard to believe. Math is also not remotely close to being my forte.

That's what the numbers mean, yes. The National Weather Service indicates that they estimate that 400 people are struck by lightning annually (actual numbers over the past 10 years have averaged at 280, but due to statistical averages over the most recent thirty years, they estimate that the numbers are higher). 400 people a year x 80 years = 32,000, so yes. I didn't do the research, but that is what the numbers say according to the NWS.