Are you suggesting the Chinese, of all people, might be doing something financially inappropriate?

IN 1861 Shanghai came under attack from the Taiping rebellion, a bloody uprising led by the self-proclaimed younger brother of Jesus Christ.

I studied Chinese history in HS, but I never remember hearing about Huan Christ leading the Chinese in rebellion.

"Analysts guess that 30%-60% of these loans may turn sour"

Add sugar, a little MSG and pour over chicken. Problem solved.

Misleading headline : 30%-60% of THESE loans

THESE : 10,000 financing vehicles, which took out loans from banks to pay for public works, such as roads and irrigation


It's weird that China instituted a centralized policy and the provinces went around this policy to get debts to pay for what the provinces wanted.

Atomic Spunk: "Analysts guess that 30%-60% of these loans may turn sour"

Add sugar, a little MSG and pour over chicken. Problem solved.

Exactly if 30-60% are sour that means 70-40% are sweet.

mr0x: Misleading headline : 30%-60% of THESE loans

THESE : 10,000 financing vehicles, which took out loans from banks to pay for public works, such as roads and irrigation


It's weird that China instituted a centralized policy and the provinces went around this policy to get debts to pay for what the provinces wanted.

There'll still be a place for the 'grey market' financial instruments mentioned. I could also see this being a shadow bailout, depending on the nature of those instruments. Pay off some of those instruments, get a lower interest rate, and maintain faith in the general lending system. A massive amount of bad debt that came from domestic savers (as seems implied) would create that oh so unpleasant instability the central government would wish to avoid.

bhcompy: IN 1861 Shanghai came under attack from the Taiping rebellion, a bloody uprising led by the self-proclaimed younger brother of Jesus Christ.

I studied Chinese history in HS, but I never remember hearing about Huan Christ leading the Chinese in rebellion.

Oh, it was nothing, only a little civil war that killed some 20 million people. No reason for your high school class to mention it.

Bad_Seed: bhcompy: IN 1861 Shanghai came under attack from the Taiping rebellion, a bloody uprising led by the self-proclaimed younger brother of Jesus Christ.

I studied Chinese history in HS, but I never remember hearing about Huan Christ leading the Chinese in rebellion.

Oh, it was nothing, only a little civil war that killed some 20 million people. No reason for your high school class to mention it.

The killing wasn't done by "Atheists" so it's not worth mentioning

Let me show you my surprised face...

This is about as surprising as the "super" committee failing to come up with a plan. When the China bubble pops things are going to get very interesting. Who's got the over and under on the Chinese government surviving?

12349876: Bad_Seed: bhcompy: IN 1861 Shanghai came under attack from the Taiping rebellion, a bloody uprising led by the self-proclaimed younger brother of Jesus Christ.

I studied Chinese history in HS, but I never remember hearing about Huan Christ leading the Chinese in rebellion.

Oh, it was nothing, only a little civil war that killed some 20 million people. No reason for your high school class to mention it.

The killing wasn't done by "Atheists" so it's not worth mentioning

Commies too, but the idea of Christian Commies doesn't really fit in with any of our current political narratives.

That's why I don't allow any communists, Christrians, or Christian commies in my car.

Bad_Seed: Oh, it was nothing, only a little civil war that killed some 20 million people. No reason for your high school class to mention it.


Coinciding with the American Civil War...

Everyone keeps saying that China won't have a residential real estate crash because they require much larger down payments, but that fails to take into account the whole shadow lending system where people put up their houses to invest in businesses under the table.

Incontinent_dog_and_monkey_rodeo: Everyone keeps saying that China won't have a residential real estate crash because they require much larger down payments, but that fails to take into account the whole shadow lending system where people put up their houses to invest in businesses under the table.

It fails to take into account that everyone in China is saying "real estate only goes up." Marketplace was in China several months ago and some guy in Shenzhen who was buying his 3rd investment condo told the interviewer "it won't happen here because we're different."

mainstreet62: I came for a reference to sweet & sour chicken, and am leaving satisfied.

But only for about half an hour. Then you'll need to find another reference.

Rapmaster2000: It fails to take into account that everyone in China is saying "real estate only goes up." Marketplace was in China several months ago and some guy in Shenzhen who was buying his 3rd investment condo told the interviewer "it won't happen here because we're different."

So... anyone know how to get in the business of profiting from the crash? Sounds like an evil plan could be brewing.

Sergeytov: So... anyone know how to get in the business of profiting from the crash? Sounds like an evil plan could be brewing.

Short, or effectively short the Yuan at the right time. 2015 or so. On margin if you are extra sure.

bootman: Short, or effectively short the Yuan at the right time. 2015 or so. On margin if you are extra sure.

You're kidding, right? Until the Yuan floats freely, don't touch it.

Ah, the typing rebellion. When Chinese Gordon took a crowbar to the Dvorak opium mutants and that's how we got our QWERTY keyboards today.

/something like that anyway

Name_Omitted: bootman: Short, or effectively short the Yuan at the right time. 2015 or so. On margin if you are extra sure.

You're kidding, right? Until the Yuan floats freely, don't touch it.

I see Beijing ending up in a similar situation to Iceland right after the bubble popped, but Beijing will have different options. When it all starts to go wobbly Beijing will devalue the Yuan and order wage increases. Anyone holding Yuan paper will be in for a world of hurt.

bootman: Name_Omitted: bootman: Short, or effectively short the Yuan at the right time. 2015 or so. On margin if you are extra sure.

You're kidding, right? Until the Yuan floats freely, don't touch it.

I see Beijing ending up in a similar situation to Iceland right after the bubble popped, but Beijing will have different options. When it all starts to go wobbly Beijing will devalue the Yuan and order wage increases. Anyone holding Yuan paper will be in for a world of hurt.

Naw, the Chinese generals will distract the world from a default by invading countries around the South China Sea and declare all foreign debt held by residents of "aggressor" nations who respond to the invasions to be nullified.

Bad_Seed: Oh, it was nothing, only a little civil war that killed some 20 million people. No reason for your high school class to mention it.

The problem with the Taiping Rebellion is that it took place during a historically active period of time. As JK47 pointed out, the event occurred in parallel with the American Civil War and several other conflicts in Europe. My own grade school history books were busy describing the rise of nationalism and the fall of dynasties in Europe, as well as the lead up to southern separation.

Another problem is that the Taiping Rebellion is a very complex subject. Readers would need to have some historical background on ethnic frictions in China, the role of Western occupation, missionaries and trading in the region, as well as the social-economic classes of China at the time.

Which is a shame, because the Heavenly Kingdom was an interesting blend of evangelical Christianity mixed with Communist-like economic policies. You had moral absolutism, populism, anti-imperialism and economic uprising. You could have used it as a stepping stone to later groups such as the Bolsheviks.

Dinjiin: Bad_Seed: Oh, it was nothing, only a little civil war that killed some 20 million people. No reason for your high school class to mention it.

The problem with the Taiping Rebellion is that it took place during a historically active period of time. As JK47 pointed out, the event occurred in parallel with the American Civil War and several other conflicts in Europe. My own grade school history books were busy describing the rise of nationalism and the fall of dynasties in Europe, as well as the lead up to southern separation.

Another problem is that the Taiping Rebellion is a very complex subject. Readers would need to have some historical background on ethnic frictions in China, the role of Western occupation, missionaries and trading in the region, as well as the social-economic classes of China at the time.

Which is a shame, because the Heavenly Kingdom was an interesting blend of evangelical Christianity mixed with Communist-like economic policies. You had moral absolutism, populism, anti-imperialism and economic uprising. You could have used it as a stepping stone to later groups such as the Bolsheviks.

History is not current events, you don't have to have your attention focused on one thing at a time. So what if it happened at the same time as the American Civil war? You don't have to learn about both at the same time.

I was pretty surprised when I first found out about it a few years ago - why had I not been told of this momentous event? Still, I never had Chinese or Asian history classes, my education was based on good, old-fashioned Eurocentrism.

bootman: I see Beijing ending up in a similar situation to Iceland right after the bubble popped, but Beijing will have different options. When it all starts to go wobbly Beijing will devalue the Yuan and order wage increases. Anyone holding Yuan paper will be in for a world of hurt.

A very likely scenario, the timing of which is completely controlled by Beijing, which is a rational actor except where national pride is at issue. Who knows when they will decide to act?

Rapmaster2000: 12349876: Bad_Seed: bhcompy: IN 1861 Shanghai came under attack from the Taiping rebellion, a bloody uprising led by the self-proclaimed younger brother of Jesus Christ.

I studied Chinese history in HS, but I never remember hearing about Huan Christ leading the Chinese in rebellion.

Oh, it was nothing, only a little civil war that killed some 20 million people. No reason for your high school class to mention it.

The killing wasn't done by "Atheists" so it's not worth mentioning

Commies too, but the idea of Christian Commies doesn't really fit in with any of our current political narratives.

That's why I don't allow any communists, Christrians, or Christian commies in my car.

Sees what you did there.

/hot

Bad_Seed: History is not current events, you don't have to have your attention focused on one thing at a time.

True - my own grade school history books jumped around quite a bit. They'd describe region A from date X to Y, region B from date X to Z, etc...

But unless schools were to adopt a world history lesson plan that spanned two grades, there is just too much to fit into one year's course.

BolloxReader: bootman: Name_Omitted: bootman: Short, or effectively short the Yuan at the right time. 2015 or so. On margin if you are extra sure.

You're kidding, right? Until the Yuan floats freely, don't touch it.

I see Beijing ending up in a similar situation to Iceland right after the bubble popped, but Beijing will have different options. When it all starts to go wobbly Beijing will devalue the Yuan and order wage increases. Anyone holding Yuan paper will be in for a world of hurt.

Naw, the Chinese generals will distract the world from a default by invading countries around the South China Sea and declare all foreign debt held by residents of "aggressor" nations who respond to the invasions to be nullified.

China's debt issues are internal, not foreign.

Dinjiin: Bad_Seed: History is not current events, you don't have to have your attention focused on one thing at a time.

True - my own grade school history books jumped around quite a bit. They'd describe region A from date X to Y, region B from date X to Z, etc...

But unless schools were to adopt a world history lesson plan that spanned two grades, there is just too much to fit into one year's course.

Only two years? Why not 12? There's no point trying to teach the whole of history of the entire world in a year or two, it would be so superficial that you won't be able to get any insights from any of it, just a bunch of half-remembered trivial. It's better to pick out some "important bits".

Bad_Seed: Only two years? Why not 12?

Because the lesson plan you give a young child just entering grade school is different than that of a child in middle or high school. That's why many schools teach the same timelines of history to kids multiple times during their schooling, increasing the depth and complexity as they get older.

Also, world history is just one part of social studies. You also have government, civics, law, politics, leadership, national history and state history. You usually get a year for the big stuff, a semester for the more specialized courses. Rinse and repeat over 12 years.

BolloxReader: Naw, the Chinese generals will distract the world from a default by invading countries around the South China Sea and declare all foreign debt held by residents of "aggressor" nations who respond to the invasions to be nullified.

Wouldn't that be the ultimate excuse for us to completely screw them over?