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(The New York Times) Interesting "Obama has gone from a modest favorite to win re-election to, probably, a slight underdog," according to noted RethugliKKKan right-wing fascist neocon shill, Nate Silver   (nytimes.com) divider line 326
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2561 clicks; posted to Politics » on 03 Nov 2011 at 5:00 PM   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»   |    Get this fabulous T-Shirt and impress the methane out of your friends! shirt it!



326 Comments   (+0 »)
   

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2011-11-03 01:13:56 PM
Ah, the toned-down rhetoric I've come to know and admire.
 
2011-11-03 01:17:10 PM
TheDumbBlonde: Ah, the toned-down rhetoric I've come to know and admire.

You have no idea who Nate Silver is, do you.
 
2011-11-03 01:26:00 PM
FTFA:

"Third, enough of us are prepared to vote against Obama that he could easily lose. It doesn't mean we will, but we might if the Republican represents a credible alternative and fits within the broad political mainstream. "

A very valid point by Mr. Silver, as usual. Now, take a look at the GOP field as it stands right now and try to repeat the above statement with a straight face.
 
2011-11-03 01:29:46 PM
Grand_Moff_Joseph: FTFA:

"Third, enough of us are prepared to vote against Obama that he could easily lose. It doesn't mean we will, but we might if the Republican represents a credible alternative and fits within the broad political mainstream. "

A very valid point by Mr. Silver, as usual. Now, take a look at the GOP field as it stands right now and try to repeat the above statement with a straight face.


I think the GOP may find a sane, sensible candidate with workable ideas. Of course, he won't win the nomination.
 
2011-11-03 01:32:26 PM
That may have been true a few months ago, but he's climbing back up in the approval ratings.

Some attribute that to his jobs program campaign, but I think it has more to do with the TV ratings the Republican debates are getting. A lot of people are tuned in and turned off.
 
2011-11-03 01:34:07 PM
St_Francis_P: Grand_Moff_Joseph: FTFA:

"Third, enough of us are prepared to vote against Obama that he could easily lose. It doesn't mean we will, but we might if the Republican represents a credible alternative and fits within the broad political mainstream. "

A very valid point by Mr. Silver, as usual. Now, take a look at the GOP field as it stands right now and try to repeat the above statement with a straight face.

I think the GOP may find a sane, sensible candidate with workable ideas. Of course, he won't win the nomination.


They already have: Huntsman. And no, he won't win the nomination.

Remember, workable ideas are poison to today's GOP.
 
2011-11-03 01:36:20 PM
TheDumbBlonde: Ah, the toned-down rhetoric I've come to know and admire.

lol..yea, it's so refreshing.
 
2011-11-03 01:37:47 PM
Let's not oversell this. A couple of months of solid jobs reports, or the selection of a poor Republican opponent, would suffice to make him the favorite again.

KEY PHRASE
 
2011-11-03 01:43:23 PM
Karl Rove is so concerned! Link (new window, .pdf)
 
2011-11-03 01:44:05 PM
www.holocaustresearchproject.org

"Ha! Pathetic citizens! You are doomed! We have declared it so! Give up now!"

*snrk*

Man, that sh*t gets old fast.

/couldn't shop in a FOX news armband.
 
2011-11-03 01:44:43 PM
Possible. But give 2.5% GDP growth and the President beats everyone but Huntsman with an approval rating at 46% or better.
 
2011-11-03 01:46:07 PM
Dusk-You-n-Me: Karl Rove is so concerned! Link (new window, .pdf)

3.bp.blogspot.com

Up yours, America.
 
2011-11-03 01:49:57 PM
2% GDP growth, and he only need 48% approval. I'm discounting Huntsman again obviously, because he's far too sane to win a Republican nomination.

Still not convinced Romney can get enough to win outright either, which makes it far easier. 2% GDP growth and his approval can fall to 42% before Cain becomes a factor. 40% for 2.5% GDP.
 
2011-11-03 02:11:04 PM
Silver admittedly didn't get into it, but there is electoral math involved. Basically, I think it's all coming down to Ohio.
 
2011-11-03 02:15:16 PM
If Republicans were actually running candidates instead of cartoon characters then they may have had a chance. Their front runners credentails are Pizza CEO and Lobbyist. He says stupid shiat and then corrects himself when someone says, "LOL WUT"? He has no earthly clue how to be President. All he has to do is be islamophobic, clueless, repeat what Limbaugh says, and put on an aww shucks routine and they eat that up.

Cain is trolling the Tea Partiers and he is getting richer off of it.
 
2011-11-03 02:20:37 PM
Cain and Perry are way too kooky to win any type of general election. That leaves Romney, who isn't kooky enough for republicans to rally behind. I don't see Obama loosing against anyone in the current GOP field.
 
2011-11-03 02:20:46 PM
InmanRoshi: Silver admittedly didn't get into it, but there is electoral math involved. Basically, I think it's all coming down to Ohio.

Ugh. God help us.
 
2011-11-03 02:23:20 PM
How the fark does a headline like this get greenlit?

I reads like some of GaryPDX's stupidity.
 
2011-11-03 02:24:43 PM
InmanRoshi: Silver admittedly didn't get into it, but there is electoral math involved. Basically, I think it's all coming down to Ohio.

Which goes in Democratic favor, because the massively popular ballot initiative stopping the GOP's bullshiat. That vote is this year, but it's likely to have at least some holdover to 2012.
 
2011-11-03 02:29:37 PM
indylaw: How the fark does a headline like this get greenlit?

I reads like some of GaryPDX's stupidity.


What's this? a personal attack?
 
2011-11-03 02:33:37 PM
GAT_00: InmanRoshi: Silver admittedly didn't get into it, but there is electoral math involved. Basically, I think it's all coming down to Ohio.

Which goes in Democratic favor, because the massively popular ballot initiative stopping the GOP's bullshiat. That vote is this year, but it's likely to have at least some holdover to 2012.


And Romney doesn't seem to be hugely popular in Ohio. According to the Quinnipac Poll released yesterderday he's running 5 points behind Cain for the GOP Nomination 28%-23%. 45%-41% behind Obama in a head to head, with Obama trending away from Romney from the September poll. Ohio's economy also seems to be improving, albeit meagerly.
 
2011-11-03 02:37:53 PM
GaryPDX: indylaw: How the fark does a headline like this get greenlit?

I reads like some of GaryPDX's stupidity.

What's this? a personal attack?


What's this? thin skin?
 
jbc [TotalFark]
2011-11-03 02:38:26 PM
indylaw: I reads like some of GaryPDX's stupidity.

Some?
 
2011-11-03 02:39:06 PM
GaryPDX: indylaw: How the fark does a headline like this get greenlit?

I reads like some of GaryPDX's stupidity.

What's this? a personal attack?


On Fark?

Nay, on the internet?

ALERT THE MEDIAS!
 
2011-11-03 02:42:10 PM
There is a year left, and incumbents have a big advantage. So unless he's found with a dead girl or a live boy, I think he will win in 2012.
 
2011-11-03 02:46:32 PM
Snarfangel: There is a year left, and incumbents have a big advantage. So unless he's found with a dead girl or a live boy, I think he will win in 2012.

Given the current crop of Republican contenders, I'm not sure even that would make a difference
 
2011-11-03 02:48:06 PM
Snarfangel: There is a year left, and incumbents have a big advantage. So unless he's found with a dead girl or a live boy, I think he will win in 2012.

I know brevity is the soul of wit and all that, but I always thought this phrase was a bit strange, since being found with a dead boy isn't all that great for your electoral chances, either.
 
2011-11-03 02:49:10 PM
Grand_Moff_Joseph: A very valid point by Mr. Silver, as usual. Now, take a look at the GOP field as it stands right now and try to repeat the above statement with a straight face.

You don't think Romney is in the mainstream?
 
2011-11-03 02:49:16 PM
GAT_00: 2% GDP growth, and he only need 48% approval. I'm discounting Huntsman again obviously, because he's far too sane to win a Republican nomination.

Still not convinced Romney can get enough to win outright either, which makes it far easier. 2% GDP growth and his approval can fall to 42% before Cain becomes a factor. 40% for 2.5% GDP.


Watch Romney be implicated in a sexual harassment charge also.

I'm assuming as the victim.

/possible aggressors: Cain, Perry or Bachman's husband
 
2011-11-03 02:52:16 PM
indylaw: How the fark does a headline like this get greenlit?

It's amazingly well written and contains the juxtaposition of a lot of funny words and interesting concepts. Submitter knew it would upset some people in a humorous way, and has thus far been proven correct. Submitter is a brilliantly hilarious equal-opportunity destroyer with the kind of no-nonsense individualism so sorely lacking in today's political discourse. Submitter is a national treasure, and most who know him find him completely irresistible.
 
2011-11-03 03:27:34 PM
Guess we'll see what happens next November...
 
2011-11-03 04:01:27 PM
I can feel the concern.
 
2011-11-03 04:15:17 PM
keylock71: Guess we'll see what happens next November...

That seems pretty partisan don't you think? You are assuming Fartbongo doesn't get impeached before then.
 
2011-11-03 05:06:20 PM
Here are the odds from European bookies: odds (new window).

They don't have a 'dog in the fight'; they're just in it for the money.

You think Santorum is going to win? Fine. They'll even give you 300:1 odds on that bet.

You want to bet on Obama? Sorry, they're not taking that bet (they think Obama is a sure thing).
 
2011-11-03 05:06:59 PM
Let's not oversell this. A couple of months of solid jobs reports, or the selection of a poor Republican opponent, would suffice to make him the favorite again.
 
2011-11-03 05:07:32 PM
mrshowrules: You are assuming Fartbongo doesn't get impeached before then.

Impeached for what exactly?
 
2011-11-03 05:08:06 PM
From the article:

A couple of months of solid jobs reports, or the selection of a poor Republican opponent, would suffice to make him the favorite again.

ALL the Republican opponents are poor.
 
2011-11-03 05:09:30 PM
Yeah Obama doesn't handle Republicans that well. But replacing him with a Republican? That's like voting out Chamberlain and replacing him with Hitler because you're dissatisfied with how he handled Hitler.
 
2011-11-03 05:09:34 PM
Oh no! And the election is tomorrow!!11!
 
2011-11-03 05:11:40 PM
Obama will be a heavy underdog once the Republican candidates combine their powers and become one unstoppable candidate.

Bachmann: Earth! (Is 5000 years old)
Perry: Fire! (Will destroy Texas unless the federal govt does something)
Santorum: Gays!
Cain: Pizza!
PAUL: Gold!

GOOOOOO PLANET
 
2011-11-03 05:11:49 PM
king cranium maximus IV: ALL the Republican opponents are poor.

Not ALL of them...

fbcdn-sphotos-a.akamaihd.net

Linky (new window)
 
2011-11-03 05:12:09 PM
InmanRoshi: Silver admittedly didn't get into it, but there is electoral math involved. Basically, I think it's all coming down to Ohio.

If that's true, then it's over. Look at what's going on in Ohio with SB5 and tell me there's not a clear winning line of attack for the Democrats.
 
MFL
2011-11-03 05:12:54 PM
The only real problem Obama has to overcome in this election is the fact that he really sucks at being president. If he can do that he's a shoe-in.
 
2011-11-03 05:14:42 PM
MFL: The only real problem Obama has to overcome in this election is the fact that he really sucks at being president. If he can do that he's a shoe-in.

You should probably support that with something.....
 
2011-11-03 05:14:47 PM
Freedom America For a New Century Today Polling

Cain
- 63%
Obama - 31%

Perry - 59%
Obama - 29%

Bachmann - 70%
Obama - 31%

Paul - 54%
Obama - 48%

Romney - 47%
Obama - 56%

The only matchup that Obama wins is against Romney and conservatives are not electing a socialist like Romney, so he's not getting out of the primary. It's done, liberals. Your time has come. That time is now. You lost. Get over it. It's done, liberals. Stop raising my taxes. You lost. Get over it. Stop raising my taxes. It's done, liberals. Get over it.
 
2011-11-03 05:16:15 PM
It's a good analysis, typical of Nate Silver. He's always cautious and (ahem) conservative in his analyses, and "Taxbongo is currently at about 50-50 or maybe a little tiny bit down against Generic Republican" is not atypical of his work this far out.
 
2011-11-03 05:17:36 PM
I thought that he went from a probable 1-term president to a nearly guaranteed 2-term one when the Republicans started showing off their candidates and they were all crazy nutbags.
 
2011-11-03 05:20:05 PM
Obama has gone from a modest favorite to win re-election to, probably, a slight underdog. Let's not oversell this. A couple of months of solid jobs reports, or the selection of a poor Republican opponent, would suffice to make him the favorite again.

THIS needs to be repeated in the thread many, many more times.
 
2011-11-03 05:20:13 PM
Mike_LowELL: Bachmann - 70%
Obama - 31%


uh..wut?
 
2011-11-03 05:20:35 PM
Generic Republican may win? I though he dropped out.
 
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