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(Think Progress) Spiffy Remember how solar energy would never go anywhere because of the cost of manufacturing solar cells? About that   (thinkprogress.org) divider line 149
More: Spiffy, solar energy, National Renewable Energy Laboratory, solar cells, parity, generating electricity, optics, Department of Energy, solar furnace  
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9879 clicks; posted to Geek » on 31 Oct 2011 at 8:13 AM   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»   |    Get this fabulous T-Shirt and impress the methane out of your friends! shirt it!



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2011-10-31 08:15:18 AM
Holy crap! Emerging technology starts expensive and then gets cheaper as the manufacturing processes improve? Stop the presses!
 
2011-10-31 08:18:40 AM
For more details - look here (new window) Looks very promising to reduce costs.
 
2011-10-31 08:19:26 AM
Too bad a major political party has chosen to align itself against solar energy for temporary political gain.
 
2011-10-31 08:24:36 AM
But Solyndra!!
 
2011-10-31 08:25:14 AM
And yet, in every energy thread, some nitwitted, booger-eating moron GOP shill will pop up with their 1970's information telling us solar is not cost-effective.

/disinformation never dies on the internet
 
2011-10-31 08:28:55 AM
ghare: And yet, in every energy thread, some nitwitted, booger-eating moron GOP shill will pop up with their 1970's information telling us solar is not cost-effective.

/disinformation never dies on the internet


Hey, Shills got to make a living too man!
 
2011-10-31 08:29:52 AM
ghare: And yet, in every energy thread, some nitwitted, booger-eating moron GOP shill will pop up with their 1970's information telling us solar is not cost-effective.

/disinformation never dies on the internet


Booger-eating? Great insult, poopy-head.
 
2011-10-31 08:33:16 AM
I was always under the impression that it wasn't so much cost of the panels that was the big stumbling block, but that outside of the Southwest, the average insolation isn't actually enough to keep up with electrical demand, especially in areas that experience limited daylight and snow in the winter.

/Would love to live completely off the grid.
//I could do it. My wife and son? Not so much.
 
2011-10-31 08:34:11 AM
how soon can we set up a factory in china?
 
2011-10-31 08:34:41 AM
You see, solar energy is bad because it's not in the Bible. If God had wanted us to have solar panels, he'd have sent them down the Temple Mount with Moses instead of those silly 15 ten commandments.
 
2011-10-31 08:35:06 AM
dittybopper: I was always under the impression that it wasn't so much cost of the panels that was the big stumbling block, but that outside of the Southwest, the average insolation isn't actually enough to keep up with electrical demand, especially in areas that experience limited daylight and snow in the winter.

/Would love to live completely off the grid.
//I could do it. My wife and son? Not so much.


They're popping up all over the place in NYC. It doesn't completely replace regular power, but it certainly helps. I believe there is even a scheme where you can sell excess back to the power companies on sunny days.
 
2011-10-31 08:42:30 AM
The National Renewable Energy Lab, or NREL, the DOE office responsible for the research, and a corporate partner AOS Inc. are now working to bring this technology to scale.

The National Renewable Energy Lab? Where have I heard about them in the news lately?

Oh Yeah: 'Green jobs' farm in Colorado sheds jobs after receiving $200M in stimulus funds (new window) - note the headline makes it seem like another failed loan.

President Barack Obama's "green jobs" initiatives suffered another major blow late Monday, as the nonprofit National Renewable Energy Lab in Golden, Colorado, announced a plan to lay off roughly 10 percent of its staff...

NREL spokesman Bob Noun blames Congress for the organization's failures...

Oliver also suggested that the NREL layoffs may indicate another failure of the Obama administration's "green jobs" agenda.


The government funded research lab, which is cutting staff because of budget concerns resulting from Republicans in congress, is blaming congress for its 'failures' (where 'failure' is actually reduced funding from Republicans).

Perlmutter Hits Back At GOP's Bizarro NREL Spin (new window)
It's a bit of a whiplash to see Republicans, who have been trying to cut NREL's budget for years (witness Doug Lamborn's recent ill-fated attempt), to now place blame on NREL, and by extension the Obama administration, for Republicans getting their way enough to force these job cuts. We assume that the Solyndra bankruptcy stuff has emboldened them some way: after all, even Lamborn blinked when the damage was represented to him in terms of job losses.
 
2011-10-31 08:42:52 AM
dittybopper: I was always under the impression that it wasn't so much cost of the panels that was the big stumbling block, but that outside of the Southwest, the average insolation isn't actually enough to keep up with electrical demand, especially in areas that experience limited daylight and snow in the winter.

Little of all of that. It is expensive, for starters, and yes, outside of the "sun-belt" you're not getting nearly as much for the same expense. But there's a reason the sun-belt isn't entirely coated in solar panels- they remain very expensive.

I wouldn't find it practical to go off grid- I'm in a city, and there's really no point- but I wouldn't mind supplementing my energy consumption with local generation. As it is, I get free-range, organic electrons from the local wind power cooperative. They're actually cheaper per kWh than the local coal plant.
 
2011-10-31 08:44:24 AM
Barbigazi: dittybopper: I was always under the impression that it wasn't so much cost of the panels that was the big stumbling block, but that outside of the Southwest, the average insolation isn't actually enough to keep up with electrical demand, especially in areas that experience limited daylight and snow in the winter.

/Would love to live completely off the grid.
//I could do it. My wife and son? Not so much.

They're popping up all over the place in NYC. It doesn't completely replace regular power, but it certainly helps. I believe there is even a scheme where you can sell excess back to the power companies on sunny days.


That's what's happening in the UK. Companies are offering to install solar panels on your roof for free (assuming you meet certain criteria), you get the advantage of not having to use all the power from the grid, the company get the money from anything you provide back to the grid plus any tax rebates and incentives offered by the government.
 
2011-10-31 08:45:28 AM
Barbigazi: dittybopper: I was always under the impression that it wasn't so much cost of the panels that was the big stumbling block, but that outside of the Southwest, the average insolation isn't actually enough to keep up with electrical demand, especially in areas that experience limited daylight and snow in the winter.

/Would love to live completely off the grid.
//I could do it. My wife and son? Not so much.

They're popping up all over the place in NYC. It doesn't completely replace regular power, but it certainly helps. I believe there is even a scheme where you can sell excess back to the power companies on sunny days.


Actually, I know a guy (who is a fellow ham, btw), who actually does those installs. It's an interesting idea, and I don't have a problem with it per-se, just pointing out that like wind, hydro, and other forms of renewable energy, it can't carry the load alone, and it has disadvantages.

His installations are almost all industrial, where there is plenty of roof real estate for panels, and where the main energy use is during the day, when the sun is out, and during the weekend they can actually sell the excess energy they aren't using back to the electrical company (the "spin your meter backwards" thing). His company has a handful of residential customers, but not many. Maybe cheaper panels will change that.
 
2011-10-31 08:45:34 AM
(LIBS! LIBS! LIBS! LIBS!.jpg)
 
2011-10-31 08:47:42 AM
dittybopper: just pointing out that like wind, hydro, and other forms of renewable energy, it can't carry the load alone, and it has disadvantages.

I'm not sure how not being able to carry the load alone is a problem. Coal can't carry the load alone, either- which is why we have natural gas, nuclear, and oil-fired plants.
 
2011-10-31 08:48:37 AM
dittybopper: I was always under the impression that it wasn't so much cost of the panels that was the big stumbling block, but that outside of the Southwest, the average insolation isn't actually enough to keep up with electrical demand, especially in areas that experience limited daylight and snow in the winter.

/Would love to live completely off the grid.
//I could do it. My wife and son? Not so much.


There's a farker from the northwest who actually would know more

I can't remember his login, I remember he works for an architectural firm, and has been changing their building to be more green.

maybe after some coffee i'll remember
 
2011-10-31 08:49:06 AM
I think it's cute that subby believed the issue was really about the cost of making the cells.
 
2011-10-31 08:57:56 AM
Freakin' amateurs...

3.bp.blogspot.com
 
2011-10-31 09:12:13 AM
Two Dogs Farking: You see, solar energy is bad because it's not in the Bible. If God had wanted us to have solar panels, he'd have sent them down the Temple Mount with Moses instead of those silly 15 ten commandments.

It also isn't in the Constitution. If the Founding Fathers didn't think we would need alternative energy, then we don't need it!

/we now return you to reality already in progress
 
2011-10-31 09:12:14 AM
t3knomanser: dittybopper: just pointing out that like wind, hydro, and other forms of renewable energy, it can't carry the load alone, and it has disadvantages.

I'm not sure how not being able to carry the load alone is a problem. Coal can't carry the load alone, either- which is why we have natural gas, nuclear, and oil-fired plants.


Some people are heavily invested emotionally in "X is the solution to all our problems"*. Just cutting that off at the pass, and throwing a bit of reality into the picture.

*Seems especially prevalent in battery electric vehicle threads.
 
2011-10-31 09:13:08 AM
dittybopper: I was always under the impression that it wasn't so much cost of the panels that was the big stumbling block, but that outside of the Southwest, the average insolation isn't actually enough to keep up with electrical demand, especially in areas that experience limited daylight and snow in the winter.

/Would love to live completely off the grid.
//I could do it. My wife and son? Not so much.


All of the south. Not just the southwest. Small states like Florida and Texas get plenty of sunshine, even in the winter.
 
2011-10-31 09:15:05 AM
I have solar power on my property so HA HA to everyone and everything, all of the time.
 
2011-10-31 09:18:36 AM
I wonder why they just don't shoot these panels into space where it's always funny during the day, then beam the power down to non-sunbelt areas.
Seems a waste to put panels in places where the sun is weak or the land value is high.
 
2011-10-31 09:20:42 AM
suck it, libs?
 
2011-10-31 09:21:04 AM
way south: I wonder why they just don't shoot these panels into space where it's always funny during the day, then beam the power down to non-sunbelt areas.
Seems a waste to put panels in places where the sun is weak or the land value is high.


Because you'd have people screaming about the dangers of microwave radiation being beamed down from orbit.
 
2011-10-31 09:24:06 AM
Raharu: ghare: And yet, in every energy thread, some nitwitted, booger-eating moron GOP shill will pop up with their 1970's information telling us solar is not cost-effective.

/disinformation never dies on the internet

Hey, Shills got to make a living too man!


Shilling for the shillings.
 
2011-10-31 09:24:06 AM
Cool. Make them cheap enough that they replace shingles.
 
2011-10-31 09:25:24 AM
My utilitys are owned by the city. They have tons of programs geared to save money including energy star rebates and free attic insulation. If solar becomes a cheap, viable way, I fully expect them to heavily push it. Tallahassee is growing out of the natural gas plants they have and every bit of conservation keeps the need for a new plant having to be built.
 
2011-10-31 09:27:53 AM
dittybopper: I was always under the impression that it wasn't so much cost of the panels that was the big stumbling block, but that outside of the Southwest, the average insolation isn't actually enough to keep up with electrical demand, especially in areas that experience limited daylight and snow in the winter.

/Would love to live completely off the grid.
//I could do it. My wife and son? Not so much.


They're using it all over the place in Germany with great success, and they get far less sunlight than the SW US.
 
2011-10-31 09:28:47 AM
way south: I wonder why they just don't shoot these panels into space where it's always funny during the day, then beam the power down to non-sunbelt areas.
Seems a waste to put panels in places where the sun is weak or the land value is high.


The problem is the shoot the power down part that we have a problem with. All though DARPA is working on a microwave energy converted. The idea is you capture the energy in space, convert it to microwaves, beam it down, and converted it back to what ever you need. It does have an added bonus of doubling as a death ray when needed.
 
2011-10-31 09:31:28 AM
way south: I wonder why they just don't shoot these panels into space where it's always funny during the day, then beam the power down to non-sunbelt areas.
Seems a waste to put panels in places where the sun is weak or the land value is high.


If I recall correctly, that's only available by 2020.
 
2011-10-31 09:34:07 AM
dittybopper: way south: I wonder why they just don't shoot these panels into space where it's always funny during the day, then beam the power down to non-sunbelt areas.
Seems a waste to put panels in places where the sun is weak or the land value is high.

Because you'd have people screaming about the dangers of microwave radiation being beamed down from orbit.


True.
The microwaves themselves aren't that harmful. But it might ignite the fuel tanks of a wayward airliner, scattering the mind control agents they use to make chem-trails all over the sky and causing a fire-cane that engulfs the east coast.
Then.. flaming crocodile zombies.
That would be messy.
 
2011-10-31 09:35:28 AM
I wonder how this compares to the price of manufacturing them with a process like Nanosolar's where they print flexible panels at relatively high speed on big spools.
 
2011-10-31 09:38:42 AM
ghare: And yet, in every energy thread, some nitwitted, booger-eating moron GOP shill will pop up with their 1970's information telling us solar is not cost-effective.

When I looked into it, the panels pay for themselves within a reasonable about of time. I think it was like 5 or 6 years and I live in Michigan with limited sun light in the winter. Solar is DC but my house is AC. The inverter is what makes solar cost prohibitive to me.
 
2011-10-31 09:41:36 AM
Serious question:

What are the gains from a photovoltic cell vs a regular steam turbine driven by steam made from a parabolic mirror?

I'm not in college and I'm not doing research at 10 PM on Samhain, so just tell me one's better and I'll believe you.
 
2011-10-31 09:42:37 AM
The first array I invested in (a community/public utility owned array) in Ellensburg WA - back in 2006: cost - $2 a watt (after huge incentives). I believe they're up to 100 KW now, and expanding with a dozen small wind turbines. ROI - 4 years, with on-going state incentives. Link (new window)

www.ci.ellensburg.wa.us

The 10kw rooftop array I installed at work in 2007. ROI, 12 years.
a5.sphotos.ak.fbcdn.net

A 3.2kw awning array at work, using in-state sourced and manufactured panels, built in 2010. ROI 6 years. The workplace is now 25% powered by on-site PV, even though we're in cloudy Seattle, an all electric building and have 25 full time workers, plus on-site servers running 24/7.

a8.sphotos.ak.fbcdn.net

I'm driving the forklift:
a3.sphotos.ak.fbcdn.net

The office also invested a share into the Seattle public utility's community array, which will be complete in December. ROI 3 years. Link (new window)
www.seattle.gov

And 6 weeks ago, installed a 3.2kw array at the vacation home in eastern WA, making it effectively net-zero, even with full-time occupants, using the same type of panels as the awning at work. ROI 6 years.
a3.sphotos.ak.fbcdn.net

I'm currently redoing the wiring at my home, so I can better integrate a gas generator (the power goes out frequently here) and a PV fed battery bank. I expect to have a ~3.2kw PV array up on the house by February, which will cover ~90% of my all-electric home's energy needs. Again, ROI of about 8 years (since it has batteries, it'll be a lower ROI).

/loves myself some solar energy
//Solar works, even in cloudy Seattle
 
2011-10-31 09:47:55 AM
doglover: What are the gains from a photovoltic cell vs a regular steam turbine driven by steam made from a parabolic mirror?

I'm not in college and I'm not doing research at 10 PM on Samhain, so just tell me one's better and I'll believe you.


I don't have numbers, but just going by transitions, you've got a lot of loss in a steam system: the mirrors don't have perfect reflectivity, the target heating element isn't going to absorb all of the reflected energy, and then the water isn't going to absorb all of there-radiation from the heating element, it's going to lose heat as it moves through the system, and then the turbines have their own inherent inefficiencies.
 
2011-10-31 09:48:54 AM
doglover: What are the gains from a photovoltic cell vs a regular steam turbine driven by steam made from a parabolic mirror?

I'm not in college and I'm not doing research at 10 PM on Samhain, so just tell me one's better and I'll believe you.


Solar PV doesn't have any moving parts, and other than the inverter (which both systems have) shouldn't need much maintenance for 25-35 years - other than just cleaning the panels twice a year. Steam driven turbines have many moving parts, temperatures involved are much higher, the parabolic mirrors need active motors and moving mirrors to constantly track the sun during the day, weekly cleaning of the mirrors, the heated water/steam expands and wears out components and the whole systems have to be maintained and monitored on an ongoing basis.

I'm sure others can point out issues, but the largely "install and forget" maintenance schedule for PV is a big cost benefit over the long term - especially for small scale installations.
 
2011-10-31 09:52:57 AM
way south: I wonder why they just don't shoot these panels into space where it's always funny during the day, then beam the power down to non-sunbelt areas.
Seems a waste to put panels in places where the sun is weak or the land value is high.


Aside from the reasons other people have said-
Because it's really, really hard to get a concentrated beam through the atmosphere without it diffusing to all hell and losing a massive amount of power. There's a lot of stuff (dust, moisture, etc.) in between the beam and the end point to scatter it.
 
2011-10-31 10:00:25 AM
Barbigazi: Too bad a major political party has chosen to align itself against solar energy for temporary political gain.

I would have said: Too bad a major political party has chosen to align itself against all social, political, philosophical, economic, scientific, and technical change since 1787 for temporary political gain.

But your way works, too.
 
2011-10-31 10:00:45 AM
Felgraf: way south: I wonder why they just don't shoot these panels into space where it's always funny during the day, then beam the power down to non-sunbelt areas.
Seems a waste to put panels in places where the sun is weak or the land value is high.

Aside from the reasons other people have said-
Because it's really, really hard to get a concentrated beam through the atmosphere without it diffusing to all hell and losing a massive amount of power. There's a lot of stuff (dust, moisture, etc.) in between the beam and the end point to scatter it.


Plus the fact that when something does go wrong with the terrestrial array, you can access it with a step stool/ladder, vs. the cost of having to blast a repairman up to a ~25,000 mile geo-syncronis orbit (and return them safely).
 
2011-10-31 10:04:46 AM
dittybopper: I was always under the impression that it wasn't so much cost of the panels that was the big stumbling block, but that outside of the Southwest, the average insolation isn't actually enough to keep up with electrical demand, especially in areas that experience limited daylight and snow in the winter.

/Would love to live completely off the grid.
//I could do it. My wife and son? Not so much.


I too have failed in that battle. Not the off the grid part, the convincing the wife part.

I've secretly been snowballing our debt payments, keeping our 'expendable' income the same while rolling each payment for an eliminated debt over to the next.

Result: 0 net in our checking account at the end of each month gives me the justification to eliminate another expense. Last month the AT&T text plan was blocked. $30. This month, it's excess entertainment fees. $30.

Each goes to killing a bill.

Should be debt free except for her student loans in January. And her loans are thankfully under the national avg, so I'm not worried about that.


Then comes the challenge. Convincing her that a 1500sq ft house is perfectly fine to live in. The sad part is we used to have a 1600sq ft house and didn't use all of it. We even rented a room!

But the solar option? We are looking to move back north. Our renewable energy option there is to burn sawdust from a lumber mill or just cut and cure our own.

In my dream world Id get a house near a raised creek and run a water wheel generator. In the real world the EPA or DEC would arrest me for illegally disturbing minnows.
 
2011-10-31 10:09:54 AM
TheWizard: Convincing her that a 1500sq ft house is perfectly fine to live in.

1,500 sq. ft. is gigantic. I have a 1,300 sq. ft. place, and I still have a loft area that doesn't really see much use.
 
2011-10-31 10:12:33 AM
Now they need to work on the installation costs. I was quoted $5.50/watt to install. About triple that cost of the hardware!
 
2011-10-31 10:13:56 AM
TheWizard: dittybopper: I was always under the impression that it wasn't so much cost of the panels that was the big stumbling block, but that outside of the Southwest, the average insolation isn't actually enough to keep up with electrical demand, especially in areas that experience limited daylight and snow in the winter.

/Would love to live completely off the grid.
//I could do it. My wife and son? Not so much.

I too have failed in that battle. Not the off the grid part, the convincing the wife part.

I've secretly been snowballing our debt payments, keeping our 'expendable' income the same while rolling each payment for an eliminated debt over to the next.

Result: 0 net in our checking account at the end of each month gives me the justification to eliminate another expense. Last month the AT&T text plan was blocked. $30. This month, it's excess entertainment fees. $30.

Each goes to killing a bill.

Should be debt free except for her student loans in January. And her loans are thankfully under the national avg, so I'm not worried about that.


Then comes the challenge. Convincing her that a 1500sq ft house is perfectly fine to live in. The sad part is we used to have a 1600sq ft house and didn't use all of it. We even rented a room!

But the solar option? We are looking to move back north. Our renewable energy option there is to burn sawdust from a lumber mill or just cut and cure our own.

In my dream world Id get a house near a raised creek and run a water wheel generator. In the real world the EPA or DEC would arrest me for illegally disturbing minnows.


You're actually living your life as though you were the republican party... amazing.
 
2011-10-31 10:17:19 AM
Sweet,

Now maybe I can finally afford to remove the engine from my truck and bolt on sheets of this stuff and never pay for gas again.
 
2011-10-31 10:18:40 AM
It is important to remember the extrapolations based on limited tests in controlled laboratory settings always hold true when implemented on a mass-scale.

Also, if it's as cheap and efficient as predicted why does it also need to be subsidized on a massive scale to get off the ground?

I'd love to see us move more towards using wind/solar power because hey, it's free energy. But it really shouldn't have to be propped up artificially.

/didn't Solyndra have a revolutionary approach to producing solar panels that was going to be a game-changer?
 
2011-10-31 10:18:52 AM
dittybopper: I was always under the impression that it wasn't so much cost of the panels that was the big stumbling block, but that outside of the Southwest, the average insolation isn't actually enough to keep up with electrical demand, especially in areas that experience limited daylight and snow in the winter.

There's plenty of solar energy out there to keep up with demand. Let's start with the residential case. I am telling you that there will be math:

www.nrel.gov

That's how much energy is dumped on the ground by the sun. It's seasonally averaged, includes weather, snow on the roofs, etc.

Let's be pessimistic and assume you live in one of the northern areas of the US, somewhere in the green like Buffalo. There, you're only getting an average of 4 kWh/day on each square meter, or 1460 kWh/m2 every year.

Efficiency: Modern modules convert ~20% of incoming light energy to electricity. You can quibble about inverter losses, storage issues, etc., so let's call it 18%. That means you're getting only 263 kWh/m2 of electricity.

Let's assume this graph from wikipedia is about right, and households in the most demanding states (rural, low-density, cold, poor) need 80 million BTUs of electricity annually. That's equal to 23,445 kWh.

How big is the average roof? The average home is 2,700 square feet, and let's assume two floors, so 1,350 square feet of roof. The roof is usually slightly larger than the actual house footprint, but we're being pessimistic here so we'll ignore that.

1,350 ft2 of roof is ~125 m2. Using the numbers above:

125 m2 * 263 kWh/m2/yr = 32,875 kWh of electricity produced, or 140% of the households needs.

Note that this uses conservative present-day efficiencies, poor climate, weather, snow, and all the other excuses. Most panels have a warranty to lose no more than 20% of their rated electrical output over 30 years, so even when your panels are old and ready for retirement, you're overproducing by 20%. Some houses may use more electricity than average, but that's going to correlate with larger houses, which means larger roofs and more electricity. I'm also not assuming that the houses will do more cost-effective things (like improving insulation) first to lower their energy needs. I'm assuming the owners are extremely lazy and just installing panels.

Hopefully, that's crystal clear. Even with pessimistic assumptions, off-the-shelf garden-variety panels, and no auxiliary power systems (like solar heating, which would take advantage of the 80% of sunlight you're throwing away on the panels), you're producing more electricity than you need.

It's a cost issue, and the cost has dropped by a factor of two in the last two years alone. Like every other technological innovation, costs will plummet as manufacturing scales up. Panels are being made with less and less silicon, other technologies are creeping in, the cost of framing/mounting goes down as the panel weight declines, etc.

But the supply question? There's plenty right now.
 
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