Experts (outside of the scientific realm) know too much. They place too much weight on variables that are merely a subtext instead of respecting the major conventional variables. I'd assume this is done in an attempt to offer worth as a so called expert. What good is an expert after all if they derive the exact same conclusion as any layman.

/DNRA

Proof of George Will's farsightedness is that none of his predictions have come true yet.

People tend to think their political viewpoint is the center of the electorate, so they think candidates close to that are "centrist."

To be fair, George Will was hoping the GOP would un-crazy themselves when it came to the process of choosing a candidate for POTUS.

Pawlenty must have had some scandal that has yet to come out. The fact he gave up so early clearly indicates something is up.

That was wishful thinking on George Will's part. He desperately wanted to believe that the GOP and the conservative movement hadn't already derped itself up the ass when in fact he probably realized that it had.

It's only now, as the GOP writhes on the floor, bleeding from self-inflicted rectal trauma, that people want to pretend that most of us didn't see this coming for years.

Nixon and the Southern Strategy and Reagan with the "Moral Majority" - those are the chickens that are finally coming home to roost.

I said I don't care who the President of Izbekabekabekabekabekastan is fool!

I see absolutely no conflict between being in the lead in the Republican polls and not being a serious candidate. Herman Cain may very well win the Republican ticket. I also think he doesn't have a clue what he's doing and his ideas are wildly unpopular with everyone outside of the hard core republican camp.

Frankly I think putting on a blindfold and pointing randomly is about as accurate as we are going to get with this crowd. None of them seem electable.

EnviroDude: /remembers when we were told that Obama would turn things around

I remember when trolls at least TRIED to be somewhat believable.

Kyle Butler: I said I don't care who the President of Izbekabekabekabekabekastan is fool!

[www.bothteamsplayedhard.net image 327x244]

Man, why are you denigrating President Camacho by comaparing him to Herman Cain? Camacho knew and respected intelligence. When he found someone who could be an effective adviser he went and got him.

If James Glassman wrote a column on politics he would be George Will

As numerous other posts have pointed out, Silver is being fast and loose with paraphrasing George Will to make a point....and is missing out that by defining "experts" as people who make a living in the media....a media that rewards bombastic comments and superlatives...and then pointing out those two things tend to cancel out good information...

I dunno...this doesn't seem to be be saying anything other than "extreme predictions drive viewership but tend to not be accurate."

impaler: FANG: Those people who happen to predict accurately the extreme events, we also look at their-they happen to also have a lower overall level of accuracy.

Why do I get the feeling they were talking about Nouriel Roubini?

metametameta: I see absolutely no conflict between being in the lead in the Republican polls and not being a serious candidate. Herman Cain may very well win the Republican ticket. I also think he doesn't have a clue what he's doing and his ideas are wildly unpopular with everyone outside of the hard core republican camp.

Frankly I think putting on a blindfold and pointing randomly is about as accurate as we are going to get with this crowd. None of them seem electable.

In Nate's previous post, he determines that Cain's polling vs his standing in (admittedly somewhat subjective) other metrics places his poll numbers as a 4.5 standard deviation outlier (!!). I think that, more than anything, shows how desparate the GOP voters are to not elect Mitt Romney.

my favorite George Will op. is his decrying of the youth today wearing this newfangled pants called denim. http://www.chron.com/opinion/outlook/article/Will-Denim-s-an-infantile -uniform-for-1611966.php

I was unaware that George Will qualified as a "political expert". Political shill is more like it.

EnviroDude: /remembers when we were told that Obama would turn things around

//sighs in sadness as the only reason the unemployment isn't higher is because so many people have given up looking or their tenure on the rolls is expired.


//sighs in sadness, remembers when trolls actually tried.

It's going to be Romney. Things can change... but unless some magic candidate comes out of nowhere (like zombie Reagan rises from the dead to slap the shiat out of my party until we get our shiat back together) it's going to be Romney.

And don't think that anyone who matters will really give a fark about him being Mormon. Anyone who WOULD care about that fact will also be more inclined to vote for him anyway rather than Barack "Sekrit Mooslim Socialist Black Guy" Obama. So don't get complacent. Romney could make a potent candidate. He's smart, the least crazy of his contemporaries, has a pretty moderate record to run on and is telegenic. Of the Republican contenders he's the only one who could give Obama a run for his money.

I don't WANT Romney to run, I just have heard way too many people dismiss him simply because he's Mormon, and I find that troubling. Don't underestimate him.

I wonder how much George Will gets paid to make his worthless predictions.

mongbiohazard: It's going to be Romney. Things can change... but unless some magic candidate comes out of nowhere (like zombie Reagan rises from the dead to slap the shiat out of my party until we get our shiat back together) it's going to be Romney.

And don't think that anyone who matters will really give a fark about him being Mormon. Anyone who WOULD care about that fact will also be more inclined to vote for him anyway rather than Barack "Sekrit Mooslim Socialist Black Guy" Obama. So don't get complacent. Romney could make a potent candidate. He's smart, the least crazy of his contemporaries, has a pretty moderate record to run on and is telegenic. Of the Republican contenders he's the only one who could give Obama a run for his money.

I don't WANT Romney to run, I just have heard way too many people dismiss him simply because he's Mormon, and I find that troubling. Don't underestimate him.

No, you're right, Romney's a lock for the nomination. All of this is a sideshow. The Republicans don't have a really motivated voting base right now and there's no one "exciting" running that really resonates, so they'll give it to Romney because he's "electable". And we all know how well that works, just ask presidents Dole and Kerry.

FooDog: I was unaware that George Will qualified as a "political expert". Political shill is more like it.

That's actually his direct criteria for what is considered an "expert". Every right-wing AM nut who makes a living derping all day? Considered an "expert".

When was the last time George Will was right about ANYTHING?

mongbiohazard: It's going to be Romney. Things can change... but unless some magic candidate comes out of nowhere (like zombie Reagan rises from the dead to slap the shiat out of my party until we get our shiat back together) it's going to be Romney.

And don't think that anyone who matters will really give a fark about him being Mormon. Anyone who WOULD care about that fact will also be more inclined to vote for him anyway rather than Barack "Sekrit Mooslim Socialist Black Guy" Obama. So don't get complacent. Romney could make a potent candidate. He's smart, the least crazy of his contemporaries, has a pretty moderate record to run on and is telegenic. Of the Republican contenders he's the only one who could give Obama a run for his money.

I don't WANT Romney to run, I just have heard way too many people dismiss him simply because he's Mormon, and I find that troubling. Don't underestimate him.

Romney is for sure going to be the nominee, and you're right about people voting for him despite the fact that he's Mormon.

However, will they donate for him? Make phone calls? Organize fundraisers? Endorse him from the pulpit of their churches?

The GOP's core supporters are okay with Romney but they don't actually LIKE him, and he won't get them fired up to go the extra mile. In the end his support is a mile wide but an inch deep... that may not be enough to win a national election.

A Dark Evil Omen: No, you're right, Romney's a lock for the nomination. All of this is a sideshow. The Republicans don't have a really motivated voting base right now and there's no one "exciting" running that really resonates, so they'll give it to Romney because he's "electable". And we all know how well that works, just ask presidents Dole and Kerry.


Do NOT underestimate Romney. This is not the same situation.

Dole's opponent was Bill Clinton - one of the most gifted living politicians I can think of. Bill Clinton is charismatic almost to a fault, bright, handsome and had a ruthless team. He was ALSO a sitting president, which makes a big difference. Clinton could sell ice to Eskimos. Dole, is a decent enough guy... but he just couldn't compete with that. Who were people going to vote for - the genial but slightly doddering old guy... or President AWESOME who plays the sax, every woman wants to be with and every man wants to be like? Well, we saw the answer to that.

Kerry ran against Bush. I know just saying the name Bush around here is enough to get flamed - but he is fairly charismatic, had a strong team (including the Karl Rove and his electoral genius) and - most importantly - was a sitting president in a time of war. Kerry, on the other hand, is an extremely wealthy elite (and most importantly, actually comes off as one unlike W) with all the charisma of Lurch from the Adams Family. The only reasons why anyone thought for a second that he might win were: A. Bush had a particularly vociferous group of folks who hated him and B. they were fooling themselves and C. they had forgotten that it's very very difficult to win an election AGAINST someone rather than for your own candidate - and the main thrust of Kerry's candidacy was "vote for him because he's not Bush".

Obama is struggling on the approval/popularity front. He has deeply disappointed his base while simultaneously NOT appealing to anyone on the other side of the political divide. He is a president during a time of great economic troubles (which is always going to tend to be bad for a sitting president regardless of their culpability) and - and I know people are going to disagree with me on this - he's only slightly charismatic. He sounds very professorial when he speaks, which appeals to me but isn't a selling point for the general public.

Romney is charismatic, smart and will be trying his damndest to ride the wave of popular anger against our sitting government. He can appeal to moderates, and even some (few) liberals, and conservatives will vote for him simply because he's not Obama who is "the devil". Obama is struggling just to get his base fired up, and many of them are fired up AGAINST sitting politicians - Obama not exempted. If you expect Obama to win simply because he's not a Republican then you're falling into the same trap that liberals who thought Kerry would win fell into.

Do not underestimate Romney. Prepare for a hard fight, get fired up, or he will win.

Edsel: Romney is for sure going to be the nominee

I wouldn't put any money on him until we see the first polls from after his "Question 2" gaffe. I think that is going to hurt him more than people are predicting. Everyone thinks that his number can't go down because there is "no alternative" but the GOP base is furious about this.

Hollie Maea: Edsel: Romney is for sure going to be the nominee

I wouldn't put any money on him until we see the first polls from after his "Question 2" gaffe. I think that is going to hurt him more than people are predicting. Everyone thinks that his number can't go down because there is "no alternative" but the GOP base is furious about this.

When the alternatives are Perry and Cain, it really doesn't matter as they've got even bigger issues that the GOP base doesn't like. Face it - the field of candidates is miserable but Romney is the best of what's around.

Edsel: Hollie Maea: Edsel: Romney is for sure going to be the nominee

I wouldn't put any money on him until we see the first polls from after his "Question 2" gaffe. I think that is going to hurt him more than people are predicting. Everyone thinks that his number can't go down because there is "no alternative" but the GOP base is furious about this.

When the alternatives are Perry and Cain, it really doesn't matter as they've got even bigger issues that the GOP base doesn't like. Face it - the field of candidates is miserable but Romney is the best of what's around.

Sure, he's the best, but I think most people underestimate the conservative hate for Romney. If my prediction is correct and Romney falls hard over the Question 2 issue, a small amount of his numbers will go to Cain, a small amount to Perry, and a large amount to Gingrich (really).

Dwight_Yeast: When was the last time George Will was right about ANYTHING?

George Will is like P.J. O'Rourke: They aren't cut out to do the offensive, hateful stuff like Limbaugh, Coulter, et al; they are known to be too well educated to do the paranoid stuff like Beck. All they really have is a typewriter (you don't think it's NOT a typewriter, do you?) and the sense that they need to cling for dear life to their sad illusions of a happier, conservative past where men wore trousers and ties and women wore aprons and if the parish priest occasionally buggered a kid everyone tastefully looked the other way lest reality interfere with wishful thinking and the status quo.

Hollie Maea: Edsel: Hollie Maea: Edsel: Romney is for sure going to be the nominee

I wouldn't put any money on him until we see the first polls from after his "Question 2" gaffe. I think that is going to hurt him more than people are predicting. Everyone thinks that his number can't go down because there is "no alternative" but the GOP base is furious about this.

When the alternatives are Perry and Cain, it really doesn't matter as they've got even bigger issues that the GOP base doesn't like. Face it - the field of candidates is miserable but Romney is the best of what's around.

Sure, he's the best, but I think most people underestimate the conservative hate for Romney. If my prediction is correct and Romney falls hard over the Question 2 issue, a small amount of his numbers will go to Cain, a small amount to Perry, and a large amount to Gingrich (really).

To be honest, it really won't matter. Cain and Gingrich barely even have functional campaigns. Cain is essentially on an extended book tour and shows up for appearances in places that have absolutely no relevance to the primaries - like Alabama. Gingrich can't even raise funds and his entire senior campaign staff jumped ship on him when he went on an extended vacation instead of campaigning. Neither of them even have any type of meaningful campaign presence in IA, NH, or SC. Perry is a little better but he actually LOSES support every time he opens his mouth. He's clearly not cut out for the national stage. Mitt still winds up being the least bad choice.

Just before the whole "volcano monitoring" gaffe a while back, Jindal was looking like a lock for the nod in this cycle. Did that one slip really torpedo his career that hard?

Edsel: Mitt still winds up being the least bad choice.

See, your problem is that you are looking at this from a rational perspective. But the Republican NOMINATION process is not going to be decided by rational players.

Read this article (new window). Conventional wisdom is less than worthless this go around. If you still aren't convinced, head over to Free Republic and see what they have to say about Romney. Or look at this graph (new window) which shows that Romney has a hard ceiling that will not budge above 30% no matter what happens to the other candidates. You can't win with 30 percent, because eventually enough of the others drop out that someone else is bound to get above 30 percent. Romney could probably win the nomination by sweeping the blue states IF the GOP were still doing winner take all. But they changed that after 2008. That hurts Romney badly.

Klivian: Did that one slip really torpedo his career that hard?

It was more how stupid he looked and how terrible he sounded during the State of the Union rebuttal speech. Up until then, the GOP imagined that he was some sort of great orator like Obama. They were really shocked to discover that he had really really terrible speaking skills.

Klivian: Just before the whole "volcano monitoring" gaffe a while back, Jindal was looking like a lock for the nod in this cycle. Did that one slip really torpedo his career that hard?

I think what torpedoed him is that he's too reasonable sounding and the Republicans dissed him.

The rank and file Republicans seem to have this notion in their heads that that the reason they lost elections in the past was that they just weren't extreme enough. Double down! The more far right they push, the more the rest of Americans will admire them.

It's what they've been telling themselves, ever since Obama got elected, and by god, they actually believe it. Hence this bizarre line up of insane candidates getting all the attention. I'm sure Mit Romney is gritting his teeth wondering what the fark is up with his party.

I don't want Romney to win. He's really the only one who presents any kind of threat to Obama, and while he'd be better than the rest of the loons, at this point nearly anyone would be.