Actually, last week I got a 10k raise. That brings me back to what I made in 2007. I suppose that counts for something, right?

/I'm the Omegaman.

So long as you're not in an area totally dependent on antiquated manufacturing companies, you're actually probably doing fairly well, all things considered.

They're people too!!

The good news out of Europe is probably responsible for the lion's share of the rally.

Greece "fixed"; still have Portugal, Italy, and Spain to wade through.

I actually own a few stocks. Does this make me part of the 1% now?

Europe is now totally fixed!!
Put all of your money is equities now, you don't want to miss out on this huge rally that will surely contine for months!!

/trust me

Who are all these corporations I keep hearing about? They seem to just wander around taking everyone's $ and doing bad things, like stoking global warming, etc. Can't they do anything productive, like employ people, provide goods and services, issue stocks that can go in people's pensions and 401(k)s... I imagine there's just this group of evil folks, probably 1% or so (that's around 3 million people, so it's a very LARGE conspiracy) plotting to do us all in, force us down into the mud, take all our $, without which, of course, we can't buy the goods and services that prop up the evil corporations. Oh, that's right, it's like the Matrix, they let us stay plugged in just enough to service their corporate needs...

/wish I lived in such a simple world-view.

Brontes: Greece "fixed"; still have Portugal, Italy, and Spain to wade through.

By fixed, do you mean "fixed" like you would a dog?

D135: Europe is now totally fixed!!

The sarcasm is strong with this one.

Galloping Galoshes: Who are all these corporations I keep hearing about? They seem to just wander around taking everyone's $ and doing bad things, like stoking global warming, etc. Can't they do anything productive, like employ people, provide goods and services, issue stocks that can go in people's pensions and 401(k)s... I imagine there's just this group of evil folks, probably 1% or so (that's around 3 million people, so it's a very LARGE conspiracy) plotting to do us all in, force us down into the mud, take all our $, without which, of course, we can't buy the goods and services that prop up the evil corporations. Oh, that's right, it's like the Matrix, they let us stay plugged in just enough to service their corporate needs...

/wish I lived in such a simple world-view.

You see, about 20 years ago corporations ran the numbers and figured out that guaranteed pensions cost them too much money. Thus they sold the workers on the 401(k) thing on the idea that the stock market always goes up so the workers shouldn't just get a guaranteed but small pension but be millionaires when they retiere if they go the 401(k) route. Additionally, since regular workers now own stock (through 401(k)s), they will also care about Wall Street and forget that Main Street benefits when Wall Street suffers.

And guess what? It worked as evidenced by all those 53%ers that carry the water for the 1%ers. Those fools actually believe that they can move from the bottom 40% to the upper 40% ignoring the fact that there is only a 3% chance of happening. So they vote against their own interests because they dream of winning the lottery and being millionares. Joe the Plumber was defending people making $250k a year although he never made more than $40k a year.... ever.

With the advent and rampant use of high frequency trading, the markets are now basically a psy-ops tool now used to control public opinion.

These days, there is no such thing as bad news for the market. If Europe can't reach a deal to save Greece/the Euro? Welp, this is great news as they still might be able to, and thus the markets surge upward. Europe does reach a deal that increases debt and austerity? This is great news and the market surges upward.

The Plunge Protection Team is hard at work.

Time to implement a Tobin Tax on HFT transactions. This will basically kill HFT in its tracks and cost Goldman Sachs literally billions of dollars. Glad to hear that OWS is pusing for this. Now we just need Congress to push it through.

Galloping Galoshes: Who are all these corporations I keep hearing about? They seem to just wander around taking everyone's $ and doing bad things, like stoking global warming, etc. Can't they do anything productive, like employ people, provide goods and services, issue stocks that can go in people's pensions and 401(k)s... I imagine there's just this group of evil folks, probably 1% or so (that's around 3 million people, so it's a very LARGE conspiracy) plotting to do us all in, force us down into the mud, take all our $, without which, of course, we can't buy the goods and services that prop up the evil corporations. Oh, that's right, it's like the Matrix, they let us stay plugged in just enough to service their corporate needs...

/wish I lived in such a simple world-view.

You know, back in 2008, when we were faced with the collapse of the economy, financial institutions and car companies asked for bailouts, and I thought, yeah, let's at least prevent more shiat from hitting the fan. After all, it's not GM's fault that the financial system almost collapsed. And almost every subsidiary of AIG made money, it's just their "Financial Products" group that almost ruined it for everybody. Much of it was willful ignorance on the part of the various institutions that blew themselves up, but when they cried "We didn't know!" I believed them, even though a lot of them could have done things differently.

Now, millions of Americans are unemployed or underwater on their mortgages. A lot of them had nothing to do with the collapse, and there was literally nothing they could have done differently, other than somehow be able to see the future. But for them, there is no help. Oh, it's nice that their stocks -- if they have any -- are doing better, but for the people who are already cashing out their 401k's early (what's a pension?) it's nothing more than short-term relief.

ddam: You see, about 20 years ago corporations ran the numbers and figured out that guaranteed pensions cost them too much money.

Wrong. Pensions cost less than 401k contributions on average if the employer is aiming to provide the same level of benefit. Companies are moving to 401k plans because the costs are more easily predictable.

If the company is providing less of a benefit that's another story....

Fish in a Barrel: The good news out of Europe is probably responsible for the lion's share of the rally.

...and is all smoke and mirrors that will not fix the problem.

My 401k lost 12.3% last quarter alone. How's everyone else fairing?

Goodfella: With the advent and rampant use of high frequency trading, the markets are now basically a psy-ops tool now used to control public opinion.

These days, there is no such thing as bad news for the market. If Europe can't reach a deal to save Greece/the Euro? Welp, this is great news as they still might be able to, and thus the markets surge upward. Europe does reach a deal that increases debt and austerity? This is great news and the market surges upward.

The Plunge Protection Team is hard at work.

Time to implement a Tobin Tax on HFT transactions. This will basically kill HFT in its tracks and cost Goldman Sachs literally billions of dollars. Glad to hear that OWS is pusing for this. Now we just need Congress to push it through.

I wish Congress would implement a 99% capital gains tax on any market, stock, futures, commodity traded in under 1 hour and really hammer these high frequency a-holes. This is not what was intended when markets were first set up.

Arkanaut:

You know, back in 2008, when we were faced with the collapse of the economy, financial institutions and car companies asked for bailouts, and I thought, yeah, let's at least prevent more shiat from hitting the fan. After all, it's not GM's fault that the financial system almost collapsed. And almost every subsidiary of AIG made money, it's just their "Financial Products" group that almost ruined it for everybody. Much of it was willful ignorance on the part of the various institutions that blew themselves up, but when they cried "We didn't know!" I believed them, even though a lot of them could have done things differently.

Now, millions of Americans are unemployed or underwater on their mortgages. A lot of them had nothing to do with the collapse, and there was literally nothing they could have done differently, other than somehow be able to see the future. But for them, there is no help. Oh, it's nice that their stocks -- if they have any -- are doing better, but for the people who are already cashing out their 401k's early (what's a pension?) it's nothing more than short-term relief.

I think I agree. Mostly. The government stepping in to bail stuff out generally only makes it worse. It happened with AIG, and GM, and the mortgages. The mortgage bubble was in large part created by federal encouragement of sub-par loans. (Funny, it happens in other arenas, too, not just markets. I think it's hubris, not something intrinsically wrong with governments.)

If only the SEC hadn't ignored some very large markets, and insisted on disclosure and transparency.

Gameshot911: My 401k lost 12.3% last quarter alone. How's everyone else fairing?

Last quarter I was down 21.72%. 09/30 - 10/26 I'm up 9.96%. YTD I'm down 5.26%. I'm young, so I don't hold bonds or cash in the 401(k), mostly large cap growth and value and small cap stuff. No international at the time - got out of that when the dollar started to strengthen against the Euro. Unfortunately I don't have any emerging markets as the plan doesn't offer it. Wish it did...

ddam: You see, about 20 years ago corporations ran the numbers and figured out that guaranteed pensions cost them too much money. Thus they sold the workers on the 401(k) thing on the idea that the stock market always goes up so the workers shouldn't just get a guaranteed but small pension but be millionaires when they retiere if they go the 401(k) route. Additionally, since regular workers now own stock (through 401(k)s), they will also care about Wall Street and forget that Main Street benefits when Wall Street suffers.

This I can agree with.

ddam: And guess what? It worked as evidenced by all those 53%ers that carry the water for the 1%ers. Those fools actually believe that they can move from the bottom 40% to the upper 40% ignoring the fact that there is only a 3% chance of happening. So they vote against their own interests because they dream of winning the lottery and being millionares. Joe the Plumber was defending people making $250k a year although he never made more than $40k a year.... ever.

Not so much this. First, I don't buy the whole 1% thing. Second, it's not the lottery people dream of, it's bettering their situation. I know a lot of people who have done it. Some just work hard, others take risks and work hard. Plus, they also dream for their kids. Also, I'd like to know where you got your 3% upward mobility statistic. Most of the people I know moved into the upper half at some time, and most retirees I know moved down, so I'm skeptical.

Goodfella: Time to implement a Tobin Tax on HFT transactions. This will basically kill HFT in its tracks and cost Goldman Sachs literally billions of dollars. Glad to hear that OWS is pusing for this. Now we just need Congress to push it through.

Yeah, I'll just sit over here and hold my breath until that happens. It's not like Congress is a wholly owned subsidiary of Wall Street and they do what they're told to do instead of what is best for the country.

Brontes: I wish Congress would implement a 99% capital gains tax on any market, stock, futures, commodity traded in under 1 hour and really hammer these high frequency a-holes. This is not what was intended when markets were first set up.

No, they probably were.

It just took generations of deregulation and fleecing of the public before they got the formula right.

RumsfeldsReplacement: ddam: You see, about 20 years ago corporations ran the numbers and figured out that guaranteed pensions cost them too much money.

Wrong. Pensions cost less than 401k contributions on average if the employer is aiming to provide the same level of benefit. Companies are moving to 401k plans because the costs are more easily predictable.

If the company is providing less of a benefit that's another story....

Citation needed.

Here's mine: Pension plans cost companies six to eight percent of payroll and 401(k)-style plans cost one to three percent, according to benefits expert Brooks Hamilton Link (new window)

Galloping Galoshes: Not so much this. First, I don't buy the whole 1% thing. Second, it's not the lottery people dream of, it's bettering their situation. I know a lot of people who have done it. Some just work hard, others take risks and work hard. Plus, they also dream for their kids. Also, I'd like to know where you got your 3% upward mobility statistic. Most of the people I know moved into the upper half at some time, and most retirees I know moved down, so I'm skeptical.



3-4% as of 2000 and it might even be lower now.

Galloping Galoshes: ddam: You see, about 20 years ago corporations ran the numbers and figured out that guaranteed pensions cost them too much money. Thus they sold the workers on the 401(k) thing on the idea that the stock market always goes up so the workers shouldn't just get a guaranteed but small pension but be millionaires when they retiere if they go the 401(k) route. Additionally, since regular workers now own stock (through 401(k)s), they will also care about Wall Street and forget that Main Street benefits when Wall Street suffers.

This I can agree with.

ddam: And guess what? It worked as evidenced by all those 53%ers that carry the water for the 1%ers. Those fools actually believe that they can move from the bottom 40% to the upper 40% ignoring the fact that there is only a 3% chance of happening. So they vote against their own interests because they dream of winning the lottery and being millionares. Joe the Plumber was defending people making $250k a year although he never made more than $40k a year.... ever.

Not so much this. First, I don't buy the whole 1% thing. Second, it's not the lottery people dream of, it's bettering their situation. I know a lot of people who have done it. Some just work hard, others take risks and work hard. Plus, they also dream for their kids. Also, I'd like to know where you got your 3% upward mobility statistic. Most of the people I know moved into the upper half at some time, and most retirees I know moved down, so I'm skeptical.

"Most of the people I know" - Hilarious


Link (new window)

The source which includes the graph posted by ddam above.

ddam: You see, about 20 years ago corporations ran the numbers and figured out that guaranteed pensions cost them too much money.

I'm surprised by how quickly Americans came to view pensions as the way to retire. It's not like corporate pensions have been around very long. They only really got started in the US in the 1940s as a way to increase compensation without actually giving anyone a raise. The switch to 401(k)s started in the 1980s--so pensions weren't even around that long--but people still seem to think that's how it should work.

Personally, pensions never struck me as a very tenable option. I wouldn't want to bank on the continued existence of my company to fund my retirement. Nor does it seem fair that they should shoulder all the risk.

AcneVulgaris: Fish in a Barrel: The good news out of Europe is probably responsible for the lion's share of the rally.

...and is all smoke and mirrors that will not fix the problem.

Hey, at least they're admitting that a default has to happen now. They don't have to fix everything; they just need to contain the damage.

mitchcumpstein: Gameshot911: My 401k lost 12.3% last quarter alone. How's everyone else fairing?

Last quarter I was down 21.72%. 09/30 - 10/26 I'm up 9.96%. YTD I'm down 5.26%. I'm young, so I don't hold bonds or cash in the 401(k), mostly large cap growth and value and small cap stuff. No international at the time - got out of that when the dollar started to strengthen against the Euro. Unfortunately I don't have any emerging markets as the plan doesn't offer it. Wish it did...

Year to date, down 3.6% as of yesterday.

Fish in a Barrel: ddam: You see, about 20 years ago corporations ran the numbers and figured out that guaranteed pensions cost them too much money.

I'm surprised by how quickly Americans came to view pensions as the way to retire. It's not like corporate pensions have been around very long. They only really got started in the US in the 1940s as a way to increase compensation without actually giving anyone a raise. The switch to 401(k)s started in the 1980s--so pensions weren't even around that long--but people still seem to think that's how it should work.

Personally, pensions never struck me as a very tenable option. I wouldn't want to bank on the continued existence of my company to fund my retirement. Nor does it seem fair that they should shoulder all the risk.

Is it fair that corporations haven't increased pay in decades (adjusted for inflation)? Yes, pensions are not perfect but way better than 401(k)s for the workers. For the companies they are not. And if we actually gave teeth to the government regulations that manage corporation funded pension funds you wouldn't have to fear for the lack of funds for your pension. However, even today corportations are allowed to only put a % of the money in pension funds instead of 100% as they should.

ddam: Pension plans cost companies six to eight percent of payroll and 401(k)-style plans cost one to three percent, according to benefits expert Brooks Hamilton

Those aren't controlling for value to the employee. If the 401k is designed to replicate the benefit that the old pension produced, the 401k is more expensive because the company is no longer getting the benefit of investment.

The article you cited takes into account that most 401k plans now are not as generous as older pensions were.

ddam: Is it fair that corporations haven't increased pay in decades (adjusted for inflation)?

I don't know. On the surface it seems very wrong, but then I know how much my employer has been eating in increased insurance premiums every year. Maybe if we had a rational healthcare system wages would actually be going up.

ddam: Yes, pensions are not perfect but way better than 401(k)s for the workers. For the companies they are not.

Assuming the pension stays solvent. If it doesn't then it's worse for everyone. And I don't expect my employer to put my personal interests before their own. They're in business to make money, not provide me with a retirement. I don't trust them to have my back for the next 50 years.

ddam: And if we actually gave teeth to the government regulations that manage corporation funded pension funds you wouldn't have to fear for the lack of funds for your pension. However, even today corportations are allowed to only put a % of the money in pension funds instead of 100% as they should.

That kind of assumes the ability to accurately predict how your investments will perform and what your retiree population will look like half-a-century or more into the future. And I believe companies are allowed to under-fund if investment performance makes up the difference. Like-wise, they have to fund at a higher rate if their investments falter.

fsbilly: Actually, last week I got a 10k raise. That brings me back to what I made in 2007. I suppose that counts for something, right?

/I'm the Omegaman.

I started a small business last month and some time early next year I expect my weekly take-home to increase about 30% compared to my 9-5 job.

And cue the huge sell off in 3...2...1...

Moopy Mac: "Most of the people I know" - Hilarious


Link (new window)

The source which includes the graph posted by ddam above.

I know several thousand people from all walks of life. I'd say that's a fairly large sample size. Not truly random, however, since it's geographically biased, and probably has other biases as well. Speaking of biases, that chart wasn't sourced, and just from the font sizes I'd say the author has a few biases of his own. Now, to the graph!

Nice graph. Is that 3% in a particular year, or 3% in their lifetime? Doesn't say, but by it's volatility, I'd say the former. So three percent a year move up or down. That's 30 percent in ten years. Of course, some who move up would move back down, and some who move down move back up, so it's not really cumulative. But 3 percent a year doesn't seem too bad if you're talking about increasing your position by 50%, which is what a jump from 40% to 60% would be. However, it's been higher, and it seems like it would be good to get back to that. And it tracks pretty well with my personal sample, too. Hilarious!

So, what was your objection? The graph you point to just means that personal economic volatility has decreased over time, it doesn't give a reason. And the timeline stretches from before WW2, through the big growth years of the 50s and 60s. Looks like it's been about 3-4% for the last 50 years or so.

ddam: 3-4% as of 2000 and it might even be lower now.

3-4% over what time period? One year, or a lifetime? I really really doubt it's much longer than a year. Also, what's P0-40 and P100-60? Is that income? Wealth? Does it have an age limitation, like 18-65, so that you're only looking at working age people? Most everyone I know started out with no income, and got jobs and moved up. Retirees drop income and live off their wealth. What is this graph measuring?

Fish in a Barrel: mitchcumpstein: Gameshot911: My 401k lost 12.3% last quarter alone. How's everyone else fairing?

Last quarter I was down 21.72%. 09/30 - 10/26 I'm up 9.96%. YTD I'm down 5.26%. I'm young, so I don't hold bonds or cash in the 401(k), mostly large cap growth and value and small cap stuff. No international at the time - got out of that when the dollar started to strengthen against the Euro. Unfortunately I don't have any emerging markets as the plan doesn't offer it. Wish it did...

Year to date, down 3.6% as of yesterday.

I'm down 3.4% - in index funds only and rebalance every 6 months.

Gameshot911: My 401k lost 12.3% last quarter alone. How's everyone else fairing?

I opened my Roth IRA In May. So far, I've contributed $2330. The account is worth $2168 as of this morning. So I'm down about 6% overall, but $144 of that 6% has been in sales charges, not actual losses. If this keeps up, I might actually make some money this year.

I'm glad I have 30 years to go before I really care about how much I have.

ddam: Yes, pensions are not perfect but way better than 401(k)s for the workers. For the companies they are not.

Unless the company goes out of business, or ridiculously underfunds its pension fund, or it gets looted in a buyout, etc. And then you have government pensions, which demand that future generations pay for the retirement of the previous generation, with no actual money set aside at all. This was fine when the population was growing significantly and the ratio of retirees to workers was low; now, not so much. You end up with situations like California, where taxpayers struggle to pay for the 3%/year pensions promised various state government workers in the past.

Instead, you need a personal retirement savings account for *everyone*. An actual lump-sum of wealth, legally protected and audited. Not touchable for "hardship", by lawsuits, or anything else until retirement is neared, reasonably conservatively invested, at least partially convertible to (private company) annuities upon retirement, etc. This would replace pensions, some or all 401(k)/IRAs, and social security. The money you get in retirement comes from your fund, not the government or from a company that no longer exists.

dripping with sarcasm: Fish in a Barrel: mitchcumpstein: Gameshot911: My 401k lost 12.3% last quarter alone. How's everyone else fairing?

Last quarter I was down 21.72%. 09/30 - 10/26 I'm up 9.96%. YTD I'm down 5.26%. I'm young, so I don't hold bonds or cash in the 401(k), mostly large cap growth and value and small cap stuff. No international at the time - got out of that when the dollar started to strengthen against the Euro. Unfortunately I don't have any emerging markets as the plan doesn't offer it. Wish it did...

Year to date, down 3.6% as of yesterday.

I'm down 3.4% - in index funds only and rebalance every 6 months.

My last statement said I was up 22% I lucked out with treasury securities (new window). The YTD is sort of crazy. I confess, I haven't been paying much attention to investing yet, I've only been out of school / working full time for about 14 months now.

Gameshot911: My 401k lost 12.3% last quarter alone. How's everyone else fairing?

Last quarter, down 7%. So far this month (not counting today), up around 5%. YTD I'm back up 4%.

I'm an older farker, so I've been 50% stocks (across large, small, and international indexes) and 50% stable value since the beginning of the year. Since I likely don't control when I will retire, that is the level of risk I'm happy with. I have been contributing to my 401K for a number of years, so what has happened the last several years hasn't caused me to panic (yet).

Goodfella: The Plunge Protection Team is hard at work.

Oh lord, the PPT. I haven't heard that one in quite a while.

dchurch0: Gameshot911: My 401k lost 12.3% last quarter alone. How's everyone else fairing?

I opened my Roth IRA In May. So far, I've contributed $2330. The account is worth $2168 as of this morning. So I'm down about 6% overall, but $144 of that 6% has been in sales charges, not actual losses. If this keeps up, I might actually make some money this year.

I'm glad I have 30 years to go before I really care about how much I have.

/Maths, how do they work?
//Starting amount (not counting fees) minus losses = down $18 bucks = - 0.7 percent.
///But that's a 6.7 percent taken in a sales fee? Ouch.
////Financial scams, how do they work?
//If this keeps up, you'll owe them money in 30 years!

ProfessorOhki: My last statement said I was up 22% I lucked out with treasury securities (new window). The YTD is sort of crazy.

Fish in a Barrel: ProfessorOhki: My last statement said I was up 22% I lucked out with treasury securities (new window). The YTD is sort of crazy.

[forums.pelicanparts.com image 600x202]

Historically it looks like it just bounces from mid 10s to just under 14 over and over again...

Does any serious academic really argue for supply-side economics after these past few years?

Galloping Galoshes: Moopy Mac: "Most of the people I know" - Hilarious


Link (new window)

The source which includes the graph posted by ddam above.

I know several thousand people from all walks of life. I'd say that's a fairly large sample size. Not truly random, however, since it's geographically biased, and probably has other biases as well. Speaking of biases, that chart wasn't sourced, and just from the font sizes I'd say the author has a few biases of his own. Now, to the graph!

Nice graph. Is that 3% in a particular year, or 3% in their lifetime? Doesn't say, but by it's volatility, I'd say the former. So three percent a year move up or down. That's 30 percent in ten years. Of course, some who move up would move back down, and some who move down move back up, so it's not really cumulative. But 3 percent a year doesn't seem too bad if you're talking about increasing your position by 50%, which is what a jump from 40% to 60% would be. However, it's been higher, and it seems like it would be good to get back to that. And it tracks pretty well with my personal sample, too. Hilarious!

So, what was your objection? The graph you point to just means that personal economic volatility has decreased over time, it doesn't give a reason. And the timeline stretches from before WW2, through the big growth years of the 50s and 60s. Looks like it's been about 3-4% for the last 50 years or so.

You know several thousand people's economic situation from now and from where they started and how that fits into the socio-economic system of this country? That seems pretty far-fetched.

jst3p: Fish in a Barrel: ProfessorOhki: My last statement said I was up 22% I lucked out with treasury securities (new window). The YTD is sort of crazy.

[forums.pelicanparts.com image 600x202]

Historically it looks like it just bounces from mid 10s to just under 14 over and over again...

Almost annually it would seem. I need to diversify a lot, I just wanted to start contributing to my 401k as quickly as possible and assumed treasury was a decent starting place based on the not-so-sage logic of "if the treasury collapses, there's bigger problems to worry about."

Fish in a Barrel: AcneVulgaris: Fish in a Barrel: The good news out of Europe is probably responsible for the lion's share of the rally.

...and is all smoke and mirrors that will not fix the problem.

Hey, at least they're admitting that a default has to happen now. They don't have to fix everything; they just need to contain the damage.

I guess holding it together involves telling billions of people that they aren't going to get what they thought they were going to get, and that their children will be even worse off, without those billions going bugfark and burning it all down.

The media has been managing it so far, but if things take a turn for the worse, things could definitely take a turn for the worse. I'm not worried either way. I brought marshmallows.