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(CNBC) Obvious Today's economy is just a repeat of the 1930's. Reported   (cnbc.com) divider line 47
More: Obvious, Andrew Smithers, emerging economies, inflation rate  
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2657 clicks; posted to Business » on 25 Oct 2011 at 1:50 PM   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»   |    Get this fabulous T-Shirt and impress the methane out of your friends! shirt it!



47 Comments   (+0 »)
   
 
2011-10-25 10:09:27 AM
I'm thinking CW. nice.
 
2011-10-25 10:20:57 AM
great! now we just need lebensraum and we're set.

*eyeballs canada*
 
2011-10-25 12:23:23 PM
We're missing a crap load of context between the 1930's and the 2010's.

Then, the arguments becomes one of analogues, and endless arguments of the inherent similarities to the inherent differences. At that point, the argument of "it is not the same" is already met through ignoring the point.

No, history doesn't exactly repeat itself. it is silly to make that point. Learn the particulars of todays context.
 
2011-10-25 01:19:41 PM
Party Boy: We're missing a crap load of context between the 1930's and the 2010's.

Then, the arguments becomes one of analogues, and endless arguments of the inherent similarities to the inherent differences. At that point, the argument of "it is not the same" is already met through ignoring the point.

No, history doesn't exactly repeat itself. it is silly to make that point. Learn the particulars of todays context.


But I was really looking forward to a blitzkrieg across Canada....
 
2011-10-25 01:53:52 PM
Weaver95: Party Boy: We're missing a crap load of context between the 1930's and the 2010's.

Then, the arguments becomes one of analogues, and endless arguments of the inherent similarities to the inherent differences. At that point, the argument of "it is not the same" is already met through ignoring the point.

No, history doesn't exactly repeat itself. it is silly to make that point. Learn the particulars of todays context.

But I was really looking forward to a blitzkrieg across Canada....


I think we need Canada to Blitzkrieg us.

/Is it a Blitzkrieg if it's on snowmobiles?
 
2011-10-25 02:02:44 PM
Yeah, because this:

www.indianchild.com

is just like this:

buenojoe.com
 
2011-10-25 02:06:37 PM
calbert: I'm thinking CW. nice.

That's a pretty amazing skill you have
 
2011-10-25 02:07:27 PM
beta_plus: Yeah, because this:

[www.indianchild.com image 462x600]

is just like this:

[buenojoe.com image 408x383]


You know what's unbelievable about the first photo? She's only 32 years old.
 
2011-10-25 02:11:29 PM
Party Boy: No, history doesn't exactly repeat itself.

Thats probably why the phrase is "history repeats itself" and not "history repeats itself exactly".

But it does repeat itself and you can learn from the past and ameliorate some of the worst effects of mistakes made back then.

That can be done by repeating some of the solutions to said mistakes such as applying the "the great compression" solution to the second great republican depression.
 
2011-10-25 02:12:29 PM
I thought what we have going now is more similar to the "stagflation" business of the 70's, only now the -flation part is being kept in check pretty well.
 
2011-10-25 02:28:17 PM
wainauguration.org
 
2011-10-25 02:29:24 PM
I can has breadline?
 
2011-10-25 02:30:03 PM
cgraves67: I thought what we have going now is more similar to the "stagflation" business of the 70's, only now the -flation part is being kept in check pretty well.

that's what I figured as well. If someone with money actually started spending some of it, get some money moving around and trickling down a little quicker, we'd probably see some real growth begin around here again.
 
2011-10-25 02:40:38 PM
cgraves67: I thought what we have going now is more similar to the "stagflation" business of the 70's, only now the -flation part is being kept in check pretty well.

There's plenty of inflation in various market sectors, it's just that housing deflation is so powerful that we're break even economy-wide. Though I would argue we're still net deflation.. :(
 
2011-10-25 02:50:20 PM
tricycleracer: beta_plus: Yeah, because this:

[www.indianchild.com image 462x600]

is just like this:

[buenojoe.com image 408x383]

You know what's unbelievable about the first photo? She's only 32 years old.


It's not the years, it's the mileage.
Dr. Indiana Jones
 
2011-10-25 02:51:22 PM
tricycleracer: beta_plus: Yeah, because this:

[www.indianchild.com image 462x600]

is just like this:

[buenojoe.com image 408x383]

You know what's unbelievable about the first photo? She's only 32 years old.


That's what years of sun does to you.

Yes, there are lots of people out there on wall street and elsewhere who've never worked their asses off and who've never gone to bed hungry. There's lots of people who've never had to hope their kids would eat the weird-assed shiat they made for dinner because there wasn't anything else to feed them.

There are lots of people out there who HAVE been to those places, and maybe they're working 3 jobs just to survive. Maybe it's nice that they have a non-leaking roof over their head and heat while they're working 16 hours a day at minimum wage.

You don't see as much starvation since there's things like SNAP and AFDC and housing assistance and unemployment and whatnot. It doesn't mean people aren't poor. Just because someone's got a TV and food and electricity doesn't mean they aren't struggling.
 
2011-10-25 02:59:38 PM
tricycleracer: beta_plus: Yeah, because this:

[www.indianchild.com image 462x600]

is just like this:

[buenojoe.com image 408x383]

You know what's unbelievable about the first photo? She's only 32 years old.


That's what children do to you.
 
2011-10-25 03:16:38 PM
Party Boy: We're missing a crap load of context between the 1930's and the 2010's.

We're missing damn near all context. The 30s are no longer "in our time." They have practically passed from living memory. The lessons we might learn from that time have largely been erased, because we wanted to forget the 30s as soon as they ended. All that stayed relevant in later years was the specter of Depression. Now it is more distant than ever in time, yet somehow so close in reality.

Then, the arguments becomes one of analogues, and endless arguments of the inherent similarities to the inherent differences. At that point, the argument of "it is not the same" is already met through ignoring the point.

No, history doesn't exactly repeat itself. it is silly to make that point. Learn the particulars of todays context.


Much more satisfying to argue against another's POV. At the end of the day, like everything real Americans do, it is about winning.
 
2011-10-25 03:19:41 PM
AcneVulgaris: That's what children do to you

The second one looks like she ate the children.
 
2011-10-25 03:38:40 PM
Try to find documentaries on the roaring 20s and resulting crash. Make sure they were made before 2008. They're awesome.
 
2011-10-25 03:48:03 PM
And the GOP have been trying their damndest to resurrect their former party leader's economic policy of slashing spending during a huge downturn:

www.entmoney.com

Hey GOP: Herbert Hooverism didn't work then, and it wont work now.
 
2011-10-25 03:51:58 PM
beta_plus: Yeah, because this:

[www.indianchild.com image 462x600]

is just like this:

[buenojoe.com image 408x383]


Do you have a picture circa 1850 to compare living standards to the 1930s? I'm pretty sure they had it much easier during the depression than they did the year Zachary Taylor died.
 
2011-10-25 03:53:04 PM
impaler: Try to find documentaries on the roaring 20s and resulting crash. Make sure they were made before 2008. They're awesome.


Let me guess, it goes something like this?:

"New paradigmn.. will never happen again...new regulations are safeguards against this as long as we arent complete fools and repeal these safeguards, but who would ever be that stupid..."
 
2011-10-25 04:14:08 PM
American Experience: The Crash of 1929 (new window)
May want to watch it today if you're interested: This film will no longer be streaming online as of October 26, 2011.


That documentary was made in 1990 (re-released in 2009).
 
2011-10-25 04:29:30 PM
our economy is farked. Chalk it up to idiots in both parties, an apathetic population, exploitation of labor by large business and the government, and an abandonment of morality.
 
2011-10-25 04:34:44 PM
soakitincider: our economy is farked. Chalk it up to idiots in both parties, an apathetic population, exploitation of labor by large business and the government, and an abandonment of morality.

Our economy is in the crapper, but large corporations are doing great, take a look at their profit margins.

They no longer need the US consumer (Ford's biggest growth market atm is Russia), they have a global market slave labor, are doing just fine. The roaring 20s set up the Great Depression through speculation, there's no speculation problem here. Multi-national corporations are kicking everyones ass, and only popular revolution has chance of stopping them.
 
2011-10-25 05:37:29 PM
Goodfella: And the GOP have been trying their damndest to resurrect their former party leader's economic policy of slashing spending during a huge downturn:



Hey GOP: Herbert Hooverism didn't work then, and it wont work now.


Hoover didn't bailout Wall Street.

FDR and Obama both did.

So only 9 more years until WWIII.
 
2011-10-25 05:46:50 PM
tricycleracer: beta_plus: Yeah, because this:

[www.indianchild.com image 462x600]

is just like this:

[buenojoe.com image 408x383]

You know what's unbelievable about the first photo? She's only 32 years old.



I didn't know they had meth problems in 1930.
 
2011-10-25 07:18:11 PM
Plant Rights Activist: tricycleracer: beta_plus: Yeah, because this:

[www.indianchild.com image 462x600]

is just like this:

[buenojoe.com image 408x383]

You know what's unbelievable about the first photo? She's only 32 years old.


I didn't know they had meth problems in 1930.


They didn't, but they DID have breeders. She had several more kids than the ones in the photo. The "Can't feed em, don't breed em" crew would have a field day.

Of course, TODAY we have people like the Octomom...
 
2011-10-25 07:24:28 PM
Goodfella: Hey GOP: Herbert Hooverism didn't work then, and it wont work now.

You don't know a single thing about anything. Hoover did all the things that FDR did, the only reason you're not in love with him like you are with FDR is because the Daily Kos tells you not to. Hoover created works programs like the PECE and RFC, and even raised taxes on the wealthy and estate taxes and excise taxes on luxury items with the Revenue Act of 1932. What, did you think the "HOOVER" damn was a New Deal thing? Hoover believed in a balanced budget, which you idiot libs believed in until Obama came and immediately added $2 trillion in deficit; now all of a sudden you think deficits are great and the only way to get out of a recession is to SPEND your way out of it, despite years of history (Japan, anyone?) showing evidence to the contrary.

Anyway, you're a moron without a single speck of knowledge concerning economics and/or the great depression, but that's ok, because on Fark, nobody cares that you're an ignorant simpleton so long as you profess to hate every Republican, and think the world would be a utopia if only we had followed democrats' economics plans from 1776-forever.

This is the part where you create and destroy some strawman about Palin or Rush or whomever, pat yourself on the back for a job well done and go on being wrong about absolutely everything you think or have ever thought. Carry on.
 
2011-10-25 08:43:45 PM
Goodfella: And the GOP have been trying their damndest to resurrect their former party leader's economic policy of slashing spending during a huge downturn:

Hey GOP: Herbert Hooverism didn't work then, and it wont work now.


We'd better check what Hoover did, then:

1) Hoover implored business leaders to not cut wages, causing them to find other ways of cutting costs, such as laying off people.

2) Hoover established the Federal Farm Board, which purchased grain and other farm goods at an artificially high price, as well as instituting the infamous Smoot-Hawley Tariff, keeping the price of farm goods artificially high.

3) Hoover raised taxes, making desperately-needed private investment much less attractive.

4) Hoover spent the government's money on massive public works projects. Despite this, the businesses that he hoped to save either went out of businesses, or spent the remainder of the 1930s under a crushing debt load, making them unattractive to lenders.

After that, FDR came along and not only kept those practices, but expanded them as part of the "New Deal".

You're right...raising taxes and increasing federal spending during an economic downturn didn't work then, and it won't work now, Goodfella. Thanks for the warning!

(P.S. Remember the great economic downturn of 1920-21? Yeah, nobody else does either. That's because President Warren Harding did nothing but cut government spending at the time, and the economy was back on its feet within the year.)
 
2011-10-25 11:48:15 PM
CaptainWes: calbert: I'm thinking CW. nice.

That's a pretty amazing skill you have


I know you like taking good-natured jabs at Fark (mainly the admins) in some of your headlines, those make me laugh.
 
2011-10-25 11:50:13 PM
Ahh Hoover (new window)
 
2011-10-25 11:54:19 PM
Why Would I Read the Article: Hoover did all the things that FDR did, the only reason you're not in love with him like you are with FDR is because the Daily Kos tells you not to.

Look at that. Projections.

Why Would I Read the Article: Hoover created works programs like the PECE and RFC, and even raised taxes on the wealthy and estate taxes and excise taxes on luxury items with the Revenue Act of 1932. What, did you think the "HOOVER" damn was a New Deal thing?

Those things happened in 1932, 3 years after the crash when unemployment was already at 25%. The term "Hooverville" already existed. That would be like the 2009 stimulus just now getting started now.

Why Would I Read the Article: Hoover believed in a balanced budget, which you idiot libs believed in until Obama came and immediately added $2 trillion in deficit; now all of a sudden you think deficits are great and the only way to get out of a recession is to SPEND your way out of it,

Obama's goes to 2017, also note the $450 billion in tax cuts.
graphics8.nytimes.com
 
2011-10-26 12:33:11 AM
I've been reading a lot of 1936 newspapers lately for research purposes. The projectile propaganda spewed forth by Alf Landon and his team against President Roosevelt is the same as the projectile propaganda spewed forth by the GOP now.

If the U.S. survived that era, it can survive now.

And I swear I'm going to slap the stew out of the next G-O-P-er who says this is going to be the most important election of our lifetimes.

Elections are like democracy's children. They're ALL important.
 
2011-10-26 01:19:42 AM
Huck And Molly Ziegler: I've been reading a lot of 1936 newspapers lately for research purposes. The projectile propaganda spewed forth by Alf Landon and his team against President Roosevelt is the same as the projectile propaganda spewed forth by the GOP now.

If the U.S. survived that era, it can survive now.


And you know what? A survey of people with either a car registration or a phone number - not even both, necessarily - predicted Landon in a landslide. If you had a pot to piss in in 1936, you bought the propaganda, because you were scared your pot would be taken away, piss and all. My grandpa was one of those folks and he hated every candidate with a (D) after their name till the day he died.

/Thankfully, FDR won because most voters had neither cars nor phones.
//One big-ass difference from 1936.
 
2011-10-26 02:30:47 AM
tricycleracer: beta_plus: Yeah, because this:

[www.indianchild.com image 462x600]

is just like this:

[buenojoe.com image 408x383]

You know what's unbelievable about the first photo? She's only 32 years old.


Why is that unbelievable? The woman, Florence Thompson, was a farm worker. People who do manual labor in the hot sun all day tend to get leathery skin. Now, get back to your cubicle.
 
2011-10-26 03:01:32 AM
Weaver95: But I was really looking forward to a blitzkrieg across Canada...

heh
 
2011-10-26 03:04:01 AM
Bob16: Thats probably why the phrase is "history repeats itself" and not "history repeats itself exactly".

But it does repeat itself and you can learn from the past and ameliorate some of the worst effects of mistakes made back then.


Here's the problem.

You agree with my point, then say:

Bob16: But it does repeat itself

You know that current context is key. Use current context.
 
2011-10-26 03:06:15 AM
Goodfella: And the GOP have been trying their damndest to resurrect their former party leader's economic policy of slashing spending during a huge downturn:

[photo of Herbert Hoover]

Hey GOP: Herbert Hooverism didn't work then, and it wont work now.


You're right. Big-government wealth redistribution, raising taxes, trade restrictions, government make-work jobs, and using coercion to stop home foreclosures won't fix our economy. The New Deal (FDR, for the most part, just expanded Hoover's policies and renamed them) didn't work.

Let's be honest: other than what you learned in school (about 10 minutes' reading) you don't know ANYTHING about Hoover, do you?

I'll bet you don't know that FDR, in his presidential campaign, called Hoover a "dangerous socialist."

From the Wikipedia entry on Herbert Hoover (better yet, find a book on Hoover [I suggest this (new window) and his memoirs (new window)] and actually read it... he wasn't the Reaganesque do-nothing free-marketer that you think he was [and neither was Reagan, for that matter]):

Long before he had entered politics, he had denounced laissez-faire thinking.

Hoover expanded civil service coverage of Federal positions, canceled private oil leases on government lands, and by instructing the Justice Department and the Internal Revenue Service to pursue gangsters for tax evasion, he enabled the prosecution of Al Capone. He appointed a commission that set aside 3 million acres (12,000 km²) of national parks and 2.3 million acres (9,000 km²) of national forests; advocated tax reduction for low-income Americans (not enacted); closed certain tax loopholes for the wealthy; doubled the number of veterans' hospital facilities; negotiated a treaty on St. Lawrence Seaway (which failed in the U.S. Senate); wrote a Children's Charter that advocated protection of every child regardless of race or gender; created an antitrust division in the Justice Department; required air mail carriers to adopt stricter safety measures and improve service; proposed federal loans for urban slum clearances (not enacted); organized the Federal Bureau of Prisons; reorganized the Bureau of Indian Affairs; instituted prison reform; proposed a federal Department of Education (not enacted); advocated $50-per-month pensions for Americans over 65 (not enacted); chaired White House conferences on... home-ownership... and signed the Norris - La Guardia Act that limited judicial intervention in labor disputes.

At the outset of the Depression, Hoover claims in his memoirs that he rejected Treasury Secretary Andrew Mellon's suggested "leave-it-alone" approach, and called many business leaders to Washington to urge them not to lay off workers or cut wages. Lee Ohanian, from UCLA, has argued that Hoover adopted pro-labor policies after the 1929 stock market crash that "accounted for close to two-thirds of the drop in the nation's gross domestic product over the two years that followed, causing what might otherwise have been a bad recession to slip into the Great Depression".

In June 1930, over the objection of many economists, Congress approved and Hoover signed into law the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act. The legislation raised tariffs on thousands of imported items. The intent of the Act was to encourage the purchase of American-made products by increasing the cost of imported goods, while raising revenue for the federal government and protecting farmers.

Hoover in 1931 urged the major banks in the country to form a consortium known as the National Credit Corporation (NCC). The NCC was an example of Hoover's belief in volunteerism as a mechanism in aiding the economy. Hoover encouraged NCC member banks to provide loans to smaller banks to prevent them from collapsing.

Hoover and the Congress approved the Federal Home Loan Bank Act, to spur new home construction, and reduce foreclosures.

...enacted the Revenue Act of 1932, which was the largest peacetime tax increase in history. The Act increased taxes across the board, so that top earners were taxed at 63% on their net income. The 1932 Act also increased the tax on the net income of corporations from 12% to 13.75%.

The final attempt of the Hoover Administration to rescue the economy occurred in 1932 with the passage of the Emergency Relief and Construction Act, which authorized funds for public works programs and the creation of the Reconstruction Finance Corporation (RFC). The RFC's initial goal was to provide government-secured loans to financial institutions, railroads and farmers. The RFC had minimal impact at the time, but was adopted by President Franklin D. Roosevelt and greatly expanded as part of his New Deal.

Hoover agreed to roll back previous tax cuts his Administration had effected on upper incomes. In one of the largest tax increases in American history, the Revenue Act of 1932 raised income tax on the highest incomes from 25% to 63%. The estate tax was doubled and corporate taxes were raised by almost 15%. Also, a "check tax" was included that placed a 2-cent tax (over 30 cents in today's dollars) on all bank checks.
 
2011-10-26 03:13:19 AM
PS. Federal spending was NOT reduced under Hoover. Spending increased, financed by increasing the federal debt:

mises.org

mises.org
 
2011-10-26 03:18:55 AM
PPS. Also from Wikipedia:

...Hoover's economics were statist. Franklin D. Roosevelt blasted the Republican incumbent for spending and taxing too much, increasing national debt, raising tariffs and blocking trade, as well as placing millions on the dole of the government. Roosevelt attacked Hoover for "reckless and extravagant" spending, of thinking "that we ought to center control of everything in Washington as rapidly as possible." Roosevelt's running mate, John Nance Garner, accused the Republican of "leading the country down the path of socialism."

New Dealer Rexford Tugwell later remarked that although no one would say so at the time, "practically the whole New Deal was extrapolated from programs that Hoover started."
 
2011-10-26 04:43:52 AM
They are damn good projects - excellent projects. That goes for all the projects up there. You know some people make fun of people who speak a foreign language, and dumb people criticize something they do not understand, and that is what is going on up there - God damn it!
-Harry Hopkins
 
2011-10-26 08:52:30 AM
DrPainMD: You're right. Big-government wealth redistribution, raising taxes, trade restrictions, government make-work jobs, and using coercion to stop home foreclosures won't fix our economy. The New Deal (FDR, for the most part, just expanded Hoover's policies and renamed them) didn't work.

Trade restrictions was about the only thing tried at first, with the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930, other than politely asking businesses not to lay people off or reduce their wages (what we need to know, is did he ask "pretty please, with a cherry on top"?). Some good that did, Ford, known for giving workers good pay, reduced his wages from $5/day to $4/day in 1930. Everything else you listed were 1932 initiatives, after unemployment was already at 25%.

It's funny, you can spot people who are ignorant on a historical subject by how they compress the events. 80 years ago, 1929 and 1932 seem like they're practically the same date. So things that happened in '29, '30, '31, and '32 get stuck together like they happened all at the same time.

As far as history of Hoover's reaction to the depression goes, by comparing it to our current recession so people have a better understanding of the time-line, the Smoot-Hawley act was done in 2009, and the other things you listed are just now being tried (and the unemployment rate would already be at 25%).
 
2011-10-26 09:01:41 AM
DrPainMD: other than what you learned in school (about 10 minutes' reading)

DrPainMD: From the Wikipedia entry

DrPainMD: Also from Wikipedia

The lady doth protest to much.

You are right on one thing. Hoover got a bad rap. He didn't have a blueprint from past depressions to learn from, and a lot of what he advocated for was (not enacted), (not enacted), (not enacted), (not enacted), and he saved millions of Russians with the American Relief Administration during the 1921 famine.
 
2011-10-26 05:41:01 PM
DrPainMD: tricycleracer: beta_plus: Yeah, because this:

[www.indianchild.com image 462x600]

is just like this:

[buenojoe.com image 408x383]

You know what's unbelievable about the first photo? She's only 32 years old.

Why is that unbelievable? The woman, Florence Thompson, was a farm worker. People who do manual labor in the hot sun all day tend to get leathery skin. Now, get back to your cubicle.


Actually, she wasn't. Her family's car got a flat, and they set up a tent next to a farm laborer camp to get out of the sun while her older sons fetched a new tire from the next town. The photographer didn't bother to get the story, and now, apparently, her children can't stand that she became an icon for something she wasn't.
 
2011-10-26 10:03:41 PM
wiw.org
 
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