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(Foreign Policy) Obvious "Unless the Obama admin (and in particular, Eric Holder), has more smoking gun evidence than they've revealed so far, they are in danger of a diplomatic gaffe on a par with Colin Powell's famous U.N. briefing"   (walt.foreignpolicy.com) divider line 185
More: Obvious, Secretary of State Colin Powell, par, Japanese cities, Quds Force, U.N. Security Council, atomic bombs, world economy, Iranians  
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2011-10-14 01:53:12 PM
Are they using it as a pretext to invade Iran? Not until we get there do we equal the gaffe.
 
2011-10-14 02:12:40 PM
I like how bald-faced lies in front of the entire world becomes a "gaffe."
 
2011-10-14 02:28:59 PM
Sybarite: I like how bald-faced lies in front of the entire world becomes a "gaffe."

"57 states"

"put food on your family"

"Iraq has WMD and we know where they are"


One of these things is not like the other.
 
2011-10-14 02:32:19 PM
Republicans are now concerned that we might blame Iran for something they didn't do? You guys really have become a farking joke.
 
2011-10-14 02:33:04 PM
Gee. I wonder why Obama isn't immediately publishing the exact methods they use to unearth covert terrorism plots so that partisan think-tanks can update their blogs about it. Instead, they seem to be making their case to allies through diplomatic channels. Imagine that.
 
2011-10-14 02:38:31 PM
If they revealed everything they know about this plot, these same hacks would be accusing the Obama administration of putting our intelligence network at risk in order to score political points.
 
2011-10-14 02:43:04 PM
 
2011-10-14 02:44:55 PM
Sybarite: I like how bald-faced lies in front of the entire world becomes a "gaffe."

I like how the "gaffe" is ascribed solely and completely to Colin Powell.
 
2011-10-14 02:46:36 PM
Full Disclosure on Eric Holder

Eric Holder Is Disqualified by the Marc Rich Pardon
Washington Post - December 2, 2008
Rich was a commodities trader who amassed both a fortune and some influential friends in the 1970s and '80s. Along with his partner, Pincus Green, he was indicted in 1983 on 65 counts of tax evasion and related matters. Before he could be prosecuted, however, he fled to Switzerland. There he remained, avoiding extradition and eventually arranging to be represented by Jack Quinn, a Washington lawyer and Clinton's onetime White House counsel -- in other words, a certified power broker. Quinn did an end run around the Justice Department's pardon office and went straight to Holder and the White House. With a stroke of a pen, justice was not done.
.
But the pardon cannot be excepted. It suggests that Holder, whatever his other qualifications, could not say no to power. The Rich pardon request had power written all over it -- the patronage of important Democratic fundraisers, for instance. Holder also said he was "really struck" by the backing of Rich by Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak and the possibility of "foreign policy benefits that would be reaped by granting the pardon." This is an odd standard for American justice, but more than that, what was Holder thinking? That U.S.-Israeli relations would suffer? Holder does not sound naive. He sounds disingenuous.

Pardon Is Back in Focus for the Justice Nominee
New York Times - December 1, 2008
In the much praised career of Eric H. Holder Jr., President-elect Barack Obama's choice to be attorney general, there is one notable blemish: Mr. Holder's complicated role in the 2001 pardon of Marc Rich, a billionaire financier who had fled the country rather than face federal tax evasion charges.

Israelis Lobbied for Fugitive Rich's Pardon
Washington Jewish Week - Februrary 15, 2001
Many have attributed the controversial pardon of fugitive financier Marc Rich to his ex-wife's influence as a major contributor to Hillary Rodham Clinton's campaign and the Democratic Party. But public statements by people involved with the case, as well as documents released by the House Government Reform Committee, indicate that strong lobbying by Israel on behalf of Rich may have played the key role in former President Bill Clinton's decision to grant clemency to Rich.
Numerous Israeli government officials -- including outgoing Prime Minister Ehud Barak, outgoing Minister for Regional Cooperation Shimon Peres and Speaker of the Knesset Avraham Burg -- lobbied Clinton either by letter or personally in the weeks before the pardon was granted. A number of well-known American Jewish leaders joined in the effort as well
In the last week, those defending the pardon have offered Clinton's desire to help Israel as an explanation for what many have called inexplicable. Last Friday, at a House Government Reform Committee hearing on the Rich matter, former Deputy Attorney General Eric H. Holder Jr. said that he changed his position on the Rich pardon after he heard about Israel's support of it.

A Pardon to Remember
New York Times - 2008
WHEN President Bill Clinton pardoned a billionaire fugitive from justice on his last day in office, even usually loyal Democrats were dismayed. Representative Henry Waxman of California called it "bad precedent" and "an end run around the judicial process." He said it appeared to set a double standard for the wealthy and powerful.
.
In 1983, Marc Rich was indicted along with his partner, Pincus Green, and their companies on 65 counts of defrauding the I.R.S., mail fraud, tax evasion, racketeering, defrauding the Treasury and trading with the enemy. (The last of these was for an oil deal with Iran while it held American hostages.) On hearing that they were about to be prosecuted, they fled to Switzerland. For the next 17 years, Mr. Rich ducked extradition requests as well as attempts by federal marshals to arrest him in France, England, Finland and elsewhere.
.
Then, on Jan. 19, 2001, Mr. Holder delivered his pardon assessment to the White House, telling Beth Nolan, the White House counsel, that he was "neutral leaning favorable" on the Rich pardon. His decision, he added, was influenced by the support of Ehud Barak, the Israeli prime minister.
 
2011-10-14 02:49:29 PM
I wasn't aware that "Foreign Policy" was a mouthpiece for the GOP.
 
2011-10-14 02:51:10 PM
chimp_ninja: Gee. I wonder why Obama isn't immediately publishing the exact methods they use to unearth covert terrorism plots so that partisan think-tanks can update their blogs about it. Instead, they seem to be making their case to allies through diplomatic channels. Imagine that.

Why that's...socialism?
 
2011-10-14 02:53:37 PM
Nabb1: I wasn't aware that "Foreign Policy" was a mouthpiece for the GOP.

chimp_ninja: I wonder why Obama isn't immediately publishing the exact methods they use to unearth covert terrorism plots so that partisan think-tanks can update their blogs about it.

You guys better be joking. This is Stephen "Obersturmfuehrer" Walt here. The right hates this guy because they think he's an anti-semite.
 
2011-10-14 02:53:43 PM
And yet, it still makes more sense than Nigerian Yellow Cake.
 
2011-10-14 02:56:10 PM
Seth'n'Spectrum: Nabb1: I wasn't aware that "Foreign Policy" was a mouthpiece for the GOP.

chimp_ninja: I wonder why Obama isn't immediately publishing the exact methods they use to unearth covert terrorism plots so that partisan think-tanks can update their blogs about it.

You guys better be joking. This is Stephen "Obersturmfuehrer" Walt here. The right hates this guy because they think he's an anti-semite.


Yes, I am. I used to read the print version back in college when I was a political science major and have still read it from time to time. I think it's a fairly reputable publication.
 
2011-10-14 02:57:32 PM
At least people aren't believing everything the government tells them, especially when those things are outrageous nonsense meant to scare people.
 
2011-10-14 02:57:34 PM
The thing that doesn't add up for me is that an Iran that is taking these actions would seemingly be a headache that Obama doesn't want. Does he really want to now be pressured into some sort of retaliation?
 
2011-10-14 02:58:16 PM
Iran's leaders are not stupid, and surely they would have known that a plot like this ran the risk of triggering a very harsh U.S. response. Given that extraordinary risk, is it plausible to believe they would have entrusted such a sensitive mission to a serial bungler like Ababsiar?

Yes...after all, we trusted Curveball.

Smart people can do stupid things...or get scammed.
 
2011-10-14 02:59:14 PM
Seth'n'Spectrum: You guys better be joking. This is Stephen "Obersturmfuehrer" Walt here. The right hates this guy because they think he's an anti-semite.

Is the neoconservative takeover of the US right this complete now?
Looking at the foreign policy of the GOP frontrunners, that might be an accurate assessment.
 
2011-10-14 03:02:15 PM
vernonFL: At least people aren't believing everything the government tells them, especially when those things are outrageous nonsense meant to scare people.

Well, ever since the retired this:

www.terror-alert.com

I guess they need to put a bit more effort into it.
 
2011-10-14 03:04:27 PM
Let's see, either this is true and it's a sign of an Iran that has decided to engage in international crimes that can easily start wars. Or it's a ploy by the Obama administration to systematically isolate the Iran's role in the region, allowing countries that are currently in social upheaval a path from dictatorship that doesn't involve Iran.
 
2011-10-14 03:07:03 PM
WTF Indeed: Let's see, either this is true and it's a sign of an Iran that has decided to engage in international crimes that can easily start wars. Or it's a ploy by the Obama administration to systematically isolate the Iran's role in the region, allowing countries that are currently in social upheaval a path from dictatorship that doesn't involve Iran.

So, are you saying that if the whole thing is a sham, that's still a good thing?
 
2011-10-14 03:08:32 PM
vernonFL: At least people aren't believing everything the government tells them, especially when those things are outrageous nonsense meant to scare people.

Honestly, this is more than a little insane. I'm still waiting though. The accusation is one thing. Doing something with it is something completely different, and that's still muted, because there hasn't been a move to do anything yet. Something is off somewhere, but it's still in a holding pattern.

Plus the whole timing right after the very coordinated effort to clean out a bunch of the OWS protests around the nation. This whole thing is putting off alarm bells.

Party Boy: Is the neoconservative takeover of the US right this complete now?

Because the current bullshiat is any different than Ronald "I just declared war on the USSR" Reagan.
 
2011-10-14 03:08:37 PM
One thing's for sure. I'm glad McCain isn't President right now, our foreign policy would be looking a lot like a game of Risk.
 
2011-10-14 03:09:30 PM
Nabb1: WTF Indeed: Let's see, either this is true and it's a sign of an Iran that has decided to engage in international crimes that can easily start wars. Or it's a ploy by the Obama administration to systematically isolate the Iran's role in the region, allowing countries that are currently in social upheaval a path from dictatorship that doesn't involve Iran.

So, are you saying that if the whole thing is a sham, that's still a good thing?


International relations is chess not checkers.
 
2011-10-14 03:11:59 PM
Nabb1: Yes, I am. I used to read the print version back in college when I was a political science major and have still read it from time to time. I think it's a fairly reputable publication.

Ok, I'm relieved. The online version occasionally has unbelievably banal content at times...

But many of the features are still really worth the read.
 
2011-10-14 03:17:07 PM
Seth'n'Spectrum: Nabb1: Yes, I am. I used to read the print version back in college when I was a political science major and have still read it from time to time. I think it's a fairly reputable publication.

Ok, I'm relieved. The online version occasionally has unbelievably banal content at times...

But many of the features are still really worth the read.


No, it's still quite good. FP and the Economist are two of the few mags to still trust. The editorials sometimes swing wildly, but it's not an always thing like the formerly respectable WSJ. The Economist biatches out the GOP more than the Dems because it views the GOP as the people who should be right and because of that calls out their obvious bullshiat.
 
2011-10-14 03:51:56 PM
GAT_00: Because the current bullshiat is any different than Ronald "I just declared war on the USSR" Reagan.

Neoconservative foreign policy has some profound differences regarding Iran when compared to Reagans era. Reagan also kicked them out for their role in the Iran/Israel/Contra debacle. Similarities would be on, how J.J. Goldberg said, "the Reagan admin. set about making itself into the most pro-Israel administration in history." Examples given were things like 1981 Israel formal military pact with the US, becoming a partner, not a step-child, of US policy. Israel and US joint adventures, like aiding the Contras, training Zaire forces, sending arms secretly to Iran. Cooperation in weapons development, sharing of technology, Israel's annual U. S. aid package, already higher than any other country's, was edged even higher. Loans were made into grants. Supplemental grants were added. etc. etc.

A few things stand out. Reagan still relied heavily on Arab or Islamic relations for the containment policy towards the U.S.S.R. Take the AWACS sale in 1981 which was a huge deal, especially for domestic pro-Israeli lobby groups.

The other really important Islamic relation during the mid-1980's was... during the Iraq/Iran war. This is especially true for the neocons. US aid during this time is practically legendary now, and doesn't require much coverage. The interesting part of this time, is the neoconservative position. During this time, neocons and Israelis were looking to tilt US support towards Iran and away from Iraq. Robert Dreyfuss notes, in his Devil's Game: How the United States Helped Unleash Fundamentalist Islam, that "within the Reagan administration, a small clique of conservatives, and neoconservatives, were most intimately involved in the Iran-contra initiative, especially those U.S. officials and consultants who were closest to the Israeli military and intelligence establishment." Trita Parsi, in Treacherous Alliance: The Secret Dealings of Israel, Iran, and the United States, says "neoconservatives were masterminding a rapprochement with Khomeini's government." Secretary of State George Shultz expressed concern, noting:
Israel's agenda regarding Iran ''is not the same as ours'' and that an intelligence relationship with Israel concerning Iran ''could seriously skew our own perception and analysis of the Iranian scene.'' He added that we ''are interested to know what Israel thinks about Iran, but we should treat it as having a bias built in,'



This effort to shift towards Iran was largely unsuccessful, as the Iran/Israel/Contra issue blew up, and the neocons got the boot. During this time (pre 1st invasion), Iraq, not Iran was the big regional threat.

Leeden represents a hilarious 180.
Leeden 1988
The United States, which should have been exploring improved relations with Iran before Iran's acceptance of the United Nations-sponsored cease-fire, should now seize the opportunity to do so. .


Ledeen after the Iraq war one, much like the neocons, did a complete 180 on this. its after this, you get

1992 Maj. Gen. Herzl Budinger told Israel television that if Iran's intensive effort to develop atomic weapons isn't ``disrupted'' the fundamentalist Islamic nation would become a nuclear power by the end of the decade.

1993 ISRAEL WORKS TO STOP IRAN'S NUCLEAR PLANS

1994 Israel Pushing Curbs on Iran: Says Mullahs' Nuclear Threat Has Grown

1995 Netanyahu: Iran is real nuclear threat

More
 
2011-10-14 03:56:34 PM
We get it. They're black.
 
2011-10-14 03:57:40 PM
i hate your blog, it's incredibly, terrible and bad.

/and your recipe for vegan eggnog is stupid
 
2011-10-14 03:57:47 PM
Lionel Mandrake: Iran's leaders are not stupid, and surely they would have known that a plot like this ran the risk of triggering a very harsh U.S. response. Given that extraordinary risk, is it plausible to believe they would have entrusted such a sensitive mission to a serial bungler like Ababsiar?

Yes...after all, we trusted Curveball.

Smart people can do stupid things...or get scammed.


Like al-Qaeda's menacing plan to take out an airplane by having someone set their underpants on fire.
 
2011-10-14 03:58:24 PM
apeiron242: vegan eggnog

Oh what the unmerciful fark.
 
2011-10-14 03:59:37 PM
I just hope Obama doesn't get us into another war.
 
2011-10-14 04:00:18 PM
Are we going to war with Iran over this?

No?

Then just shut the fark up.
 
2011-10-14 04:00:57 PM
Wow, that entire article is one huge god damn logical fallacy.
 
2011-10-14 04:01:48 PM
Seth'n'Spectrum: I wasn't aware that "Foreign Policy" was a mouthpiece for the GOP

A Stephen Walt article that sources Glenn Greenwald and Juan Cole, and you see it as a GOP hit piece? What the hell are you talking about?
 
2011-10-14 04:03:07 PM
There's a lot of irony in a guy calling himself a realist and then proceeding to lay out a pretty absurd conspiracy theory which compares the current issue with the literal "wag the dog" situation perpetrated by the Bush administration. That's a pretty big stretch.

You can be highly educated and still have dumb ideas, and a sucky blog. I am looking forward to conservatives holding their nose and supporting a *gulp* Harvard professor.
 
2011-10-14 04:03:14 PM
Its strange watching this thread.

If its critical of a Dem, must be GOP shills. J Raimondo must get bent out of shape when he sees a partisan attachment to an anti war movement.
 
2011-10-14 04:03:24 PM
Author sounds racist.
 
2011-10-14 04:03:54 PM
Party Boy: Used-car salesman as Iran proxy? Why assassination plot doesn't add up for experts. (CS Monitor)

The "very scary" Iranian Terror plot | The most difficult challenge in writing about the Iranian Terror Plot unveiled yesterday is to take it seriously enough to analyze it. (Salon)

Iran 'plot' raises unanswered questions (BBC)

Patrick Cockburn: This bizarre plot goes against all that is known of Iran's intelligence service (The Independent)

Ex-CIA warns US 'dangerously wrong' on Iran (ABC.AU)


Yes, the whole thing looks utterly stupid at face value especially when you have to take the word of a used car salesmen and a cartel snitch.
 
2011-10-14 04:04:35 PM
culebra: That's a pretty big stretch.

Did you see 2011-10-14 02:43:04 PM? Do you know that a wide swath of experts in the region are highly skeptical of this information?
 
2011-10-14 04:04:39 PM
Nabb1: WTF Indeed: Let's see, either this is true and it's a sign of an Iran that has decided to engage in international crimes that can easily start wars. Or it's a ploy by the Obama administration to systematically isolate the Iran's role in the region, allowing countries that are currently in social upheaval a path from dictatorship that doesn't involve Iran.

So, are you saying that if the whole thing is a sham, that's still a good thing?


It sounds that way, but he must have known that you would think it was a bad thing. He would have counted on it.

So you can clearly not choose the wine in front of him.
 
2011-10-14 04:04:56 PM
Lando Lincoln: Are we going to war with Iran over this?

No?

Then just shut the fark up.


This is basically all that needs to be said. It won't stem the tide of "both sides are the same", but it is absolutely true.
 
2011-10-14 04:05:08 PM
I've seen a bunch of these articles that are all "Hey if there's not more to this than has been publicly verified, this looks fishy."

Why wouldn't you assume there is more to this than they've released? I mean the alternative is that they've release all the details, and that would be stupid.

Of course, reserve judgment until all the facts are apparent, and all, but really.
 
2011-10-14 04:07:56 PM
A Dark Evil Omen: apeiron242: vegan eggnog

Oh what the unmerciful fark.


I can't even imagine how horrible that must taste.
 
2011-10-14 04:08:03 PM
 
2011-10-14 04:08:11 PM
I'm an Obama supporter and imo this Iran thing is a crock of shiat, it pisses me off that they would pull this stunt
 
2011-10-14 04:08:37 PM
LasersHurt: I've seen a bunch of these articles that are all "Hey if there's not more to this than has been publicly verified, this looks fishy."

Why wouldn't you assume there is more to this than they've released? I mean the alternative is that they've release all the details, and that would be stupid.

Of course, reserve judgment until all the facts are apparent, and all, but really.


Probably because in the past government has made snap judgements based on faulty or non-existent intelligence.
 
2011-10-14 04:09:04 PM
LasersHurt: I've seen a bunch of these articles that are all "Hey if there's not more to this than has been publicly verified, this looks fishy."

You haven;t read the articles if thats what you pulled from them.
 
2011-10-14 04:09:29 PM
halfof33: Wow, that entire article is one huge god damn logical fallacy.

It's almost like you can't actually argue against what he said!
 
2011-10-14 04:09:34 PM
RminusQ: Sybarite: I like how bald-faced lies in front of the entire world becomes a "gaffe."

I like how the "gaffe" is ascribed solely and completely to Colin Powell.


If you can't find a DemoRat to pin something on, a Negro will suffice.

Dude could have been POTUS until he put duty before self interest.
 
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