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(ESPN) Obvious The Texas Rangers plan to help CC Sabathia get eleventy billion dollars from the New York Yankees when he opts out of his contract   (espn.go.com) divider line 106
More: Obvious, CC Sabathia, Yankees, Texas Rangers, New York, C.J. Wilson, pitch count, Brian Cashman, Detroit Tigers  
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2602 clicks; posted to Sports » on 14 Oct 2011 at 7:25 AM   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»   |    Get this fabulous T-Shirt and impress the methane out of your friends! shirt it!



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2011-10-14 07:43:03 AM
Nope. The Cubs are going to sign him first. Little Theo needs to make a splash in his new home.
 
2011-10-14 08:04:28 AM
Steinbrenner's dead. I don't think the kids are going to throw money around like the old man used to.
 
2011-10-14 08:12:47 AM
..or he can, and bear with me here, not opt out.

He's already the 3rd highest paid player in baseball and the highest paid pitcher, and he didn't exactly have a stellar year.

I understand it's a business and if you -can- make more money, do it, but on the other side of the coin, CC, look at A-Rod. Don't be that guy.
 
2011-10-14 08:24:54 AM
ManateeGag: Steinbrenner's dead. I don't think the kids are going to throw money around like the old man used to.

The kids (though mostly Hank) are responsible for the A-Rod contract.
 
2011-10-14 08:25:39 AM
And the Rafael Soriano contract, almost forgot about that one.
 
2011-10-14 08:28:36 AM
balfourk: Nope. The Cubs are going to sign him first. Little Theo needs to make a splash in his new home.

You think the Cubs are going to suddenly decide to have a good team?

Also, with Greenberg gone Nolan can trump just about anyone when it comes to pitchers.
 
2011-10-14 08:30:57 AM
The Bestest: he didn't exactly have a stellar year.

...he was second in the league in FIP. By .02. And he threw 67 more innings than the leader, meaning he lead the league in WAR.
 
2011-10-14 08:35:14 AM
The Bestest: and he didn't exactly have a stellar year.

He had the second best season of his career. Maybe the third best. Either way, he was pretty damn good.
 
2011-10-14 08:38:27 AM
DeWayne Mann: ...he was second in the league in FIP. By .02. And he threw 67 more innings than the leader, meaning he lead the league in WAR.

I've mentioned before that I don't like WAR. Maybe the numbers counter my argument, but I know what I see, and what I saw out of CC this year, while not -bad- (unless you count the vs Red Sox starts, in which he WAS bad), certainly wasn't what I've seen out of him before, and he definitely wasn't the best pitcher in the league to my eye.

..and higher WAR than Verlander? Or even Weaver? How is that possible?
 
2011-10-14 08:43:15 AM
Yankees rake in billions every year on revenue, they could easily afford to give him 50 mil per year.
 
2011-10-14 08:44:18 AM
Rex_Banner: He had the second best season of his career. Maybe the third best. Either way, he was pretty damn good.

eh, really?

Again, you can probably produce some numbers to show that, but 2009, 2010, 2008 all looked better than 2011 to me.

Maybe I'm too sentimental. I'll admit I'm much closer to the old guys with cigars than to Jonah Hill when evaluating baseball talent.
 
2011-10-14 08:45:33 AM
Lost Thought 00: Yankees rake in billions every year on revenue, they could easily afford to give him 50 mil per year.

Warren Buffet could easily afford platinum swimming pools, but I haven't seen him build one.
 
2011-10-14 09:02:55 AM
With the way C.J. Wilson is pitching this post season, it may be good riddance...regardless.
 
2011-10-14 09:04:46 AM
The Bestest: on the other side of the coin, CC, look at A-Rod. Don't be that guy.

One weight-related leg or hip injury and he will be that guy.
 
2011-10-14 09:09:15 AM
Why would they let Wilson go and then sign CC? Does anyone think C.J. Wilson is going to cost more than CC Sabathia? Or does Wilson just want out of Texas?
 
2011-10-14 09:30:39 AM
The Bestest: ..and higher WAR than Verlander? Or even Weaver? How is that possible?

Here are the 2011 AL leaders in FIP (innings pitched in Parens):

McCarthy: 2.86 (170.2)
Sabathia: 2.88 (237.1)
Haren: 2.98 (238.1)
Verlander: 2.99 (251)
Fister: 3.02 (216.1)
Felix: 3.13 (233.2)
Weaver: 3.20 (235.2)

Fangraphs WAR (which is what I almost exclusively use) is based on FIP & IP. McCarthy barely qualified for this, so obviously that'll hurt his WAR. Out of the rest of the guys, Sabathia had more IP than everyone but Haren & Verlander, so obviously he'll beat all of those guys. Haren had just one extra inning with a FIP that was .1 higher, so Sabathia ends up winning that. As for Sabathia & Verlander, well...turns out 13.2 IP extra innings does help, but not QUITE enough. Sabathia had a 7.1 WAR and Verlander had a 7.0, but it's actually even closer: Sabathia had a 63.8 RAR and Verlander was at 63.2.

You can get an idea on how the calculation is done here.

The reason Sabathia seems worse? Well, let's look at that FIP list again, but this time we'll take a peek at BABIP:

McCarthy: .296
Sabathia: .318
Haren: .272
Verlander: .236!
Fister: .272
Felix: .307
Weaver: .250

Sabathia had a significantly higher BABIP than the rest of the guys, so while it didn't hurt his ERA too much, it certainly makes him look worse. In fact, Sabathia had the highest BABIP out of all qualified AL starters.

This means that Sabathia always looked like he was giving up hit after hit after hit. But the thing is: that's not his fault. Pitchers have almost NO CONTROL over their BABIP. Over the stuff he could control, Sabathia was certainly one of the best, if not THE best, in the AL this season.

(And, btw: I hate b-r's WAR, but Sabathia was second in that. But Verlander wins by quite a lot.)
 
2011-10-14 09:41:43 AM
The Bestest: I've mentioned before that I don't like WAR. Maybe the numbers counter my argument, but I know what I see, and what I saw out of CC this year, while not -bad- (unless you count the vs Red Sox starts, in which he WAS bad), certainly wasn't what I've seen out of him before, and he definitely wasn't the best pitcher in the league to my eye.

Well, I guess that settles it.

Consider for a moment how bad professional scouts are at assessing future talent. Think about how many pitchers get drafted for every one that makes it to the majors, and how many top-flight prospects never pan out. These professionals eyeball pitchers ~300 days a year, and they often can't tell the difference between great and good.

..and higher WAR than Verlander? Or even Weaver? How is that possible?

Fangraphs pitching WAR tries to separate out factors beyond the pitcher's control, such as pitching, defense, and park factors. For purposes of figuring out how much a guy is worth paying for, you want to have an idea how much skill the guy brings to the table, and not all these other factors.

If you compare CC to Verlander, it's close, but consider:
1) Yankee Stadium is a lot more offense-friendly than Tiger Stadium. Verlander would have given up more runs in that park.

2) Detroit had a slightly superior team defense to the Yankees, if you look at the percentage of batted balls turned into outs (70.8% vs. 70.3%). They also allowed only 55 batters to reach on error, vs. 67 for the Yankees. (These don't show up in ERA, but they make the pitcher face extra batters, and force him to pitch from the stretch, with the infield in, etc. All pitchers perform worse with runners on.) Verlander's teammates likely saved him a handful of baserunners.

3) Detroit's catchers controlled the running game slightly better. Batters tried to steal more often against the Yankees, and succeeded at a slightly higher rate.

4) The numbers suggest CC was unlucky-- batted balls turned into hits significantly more often than they should based on his career trends and his GB%/FB%/LD%. Verlander had a freakishly good year in terms of turning batted balls into outs, compared to other years where he pitched well. Historically, pitchers have only a limited ability to control this, which is what I mean by lucky/unlucky.

5) CC left 18 runners on base for the Yankees' bullpen, and they allowed 5 to score. Verlander left 11 for the Tigers' bullpen, and they allowed 0 to score. Those runs get charged to the starters, but they're only partially responsible for them.

If you were Texas and thinking of signing CC, you'd want to know that he put up the numbers he did while pitching in a difficult park, with an inferior defense, not getting as much bullpen help, and having some bad luck.

That's the kind of stuff that FIP/WAR tries to capture, and why you can't just look at ERA. For what it's worth, FIP/WAR point to CC being only a hair better than Verlander in 2011.
 
2011-10-14 09:44:58 AM
DeWayne Mann: Fangraphs WAR (which is what I almost exclusively use) is based on FIP & IP.

So why does Verlander have more IP and a lower FIP but less WAR? I'm assuming park factors come into play, but I'm not sure.
 
2011-10-14 09:46:52 AM
Imperialism: DeWayne Mann: Fangraphs WAR (which is what I almost exclusively use) is based on FIP & IP.

So why does Verlander have more IP and a lower FIP but less WAR? I'm assuming park factors come into play, but I'm not sure.


Nevermind, was looking at Verlander's FIP vs. Sabathia's xFIP. Carry on.
 
2011-10-14 09:49:22 AM
Imperialism: So why does Verlander have more IP and a lower FIP but less WAR? I'm assuming park factors come into play, but I'm not sure.

No, he has a higher FIP. By .11.
 
2011-10-14 09:49:58 AM
Imperialism: Nevermind, was looking at Verlander's FIP vs. Sabathia's xFIP. Carry on.

No problem
 
2011-10-14 09:50:20 AM
I'm sure the Tigers would be willing to push Brad Penny out of the lineup to make room for CC in the #5 spot...

Come to Detroit CC.
 
2011-10-14 09:51:44 AM
DeWayne Mann:

hm.. enlightening

I suppose it didn't help CC's case that Eduardo (emphasis on the 'E') Nunez was in the infield for many of CC's starts.

I'll concede that CC didn't have a bad year.

My other point still kinda stands, though. I hated A-Rod after he opted out, then groaned at the Yankees for essentially bidding against themselves to re-sign him. 2009 took the sting off that, but the past two post-seasons again got me grumbling. I'm also part of the camp that doesn't believe Torre was treated unfairly. The contract he was offered, while base less than what he was making was still the highest in the game, and the incentives had the potential of making him even more than before.

Like I said, I understand it's a business, and if you can make more money, do so. Also, the Yankees' (failed) offer to Lee gives him a benchmark to go on. Still, the whole "opting out when you're already the highest" thing just leaves a bit of a bad taste.
 
2011-10-14 09:54:55 AM
Brad_Will: ManateeGag: Steinbrenner's dead. I don't think the kids are going to throw money around like the old man used to.

The kids (though mostly Hank) are responsible for the A-Rod contract.


learn something new...

Please tell me one of the other kids is named Dean.
 
2011-10-14 09:55:36 AM
The Bestest: He's already the 3rd highest paid player in baseball and the highest paid pitcher, and he didn't exactly have a stellar year.

The sentence above is completely ridiculous, by the way.

Something else about Sabathia vs. Verlander:

Sabathia's in-division games are vs. Boston (5 GS, scores 5.40 R/G), Toronto (4 GS, 4.59), Baltimore (2 GS, 4.37), and Tampa (4 GS, 4.36).

Verlander's in-division games are vs. Kansas City (3 GS, 4.51 R/G), Cleveland (3 GS, 4.35 R/G), Chicago (6 GS, 4.04 R/G), and Minnesota (3 GS, 3.82 R/G).

Each got 15 in-division starts, but Sabathia had to pitch against better offenses.
 
2011-10-14 09:57:39 AM
ManateeGag: Please tell me one of the other kids is named Dean.

Hal. Hal is the one in charge of the team's finances, but Hank is the "personality" of the two.
(there are also two daughters that have an interest in the team, but they aren't involved in its operations)
 
2011-10-14 09:58:35 AM
The Bestest: How DARE a player sign a huge contract with any team other than the Yankees! (slight paraphrase)

The difference is that now Nolan Ryan and Jon Daniels are running the show, as opposed to Tom Hicks. Ryan and Daniels can be trusted not to be stupid. Hicks wanted to make a splash to boost his own ego and showcase his empire to the world, as much as anything. Although I'm sure Yankees fans hope the Rangers do something stupid, since it would mean they'll be forced to trade CC back to the Yankees in a couple of years.
 
2011-10-14 09:59:10 AM
DeWayne Mann: But the thing is: that's not his fault. Pitchers have almost NO CONTROL over their BABIP.

Not only is there no proof of this, it's an outstandingly stupid assertion that somehow has gained a ton of traction in the baseball community.

Scratch the surface even the tiniest bit on the articles defending this and you'll see more hand waving than a Broadway musical and more argument by assertion than a Baptist sermon.
 
2011-10-14 10:00:08 AM
chimp_ninja: The sentence above is completely ridiculous, by the way.

I conceded my performance points.
Money issue stands. Unless you're building orphanages with that money, and not opting out means the difference between one or two more not getting built, it's about ego, and that kinda rubs me wrong.
 
2011-10-14 10:04:21 AM
ryarger: DeWayne Mann: But the thing is: that's not his fault. Pitchers have almost NO CONTROL over their BABIP.

Not only is there no proof of this, it's an outstandingly stupid assertion that somehow has gained a ton of traction in the baseball community.

Scratch the surface even the tiniest bit on the articles defending this and you'll see more hand waving than a Broadway musical and more argument by assertion than a Baptist sermon.


chimp_ninja, I'm at work. Can you get this?
 
2011-10-14 10:09:37 AM
ryarger: DeWayne Mann: But the thing is: that's not his fault. Pitchers have almost NO CONTROL over their BABIP.

Not only is there no proof of this, it's an outstandingly stupid assertion that somehow has gained a ton of traction in the baseball community.

Scratch the surface even the tiniest bit on the articles defending this and you'll see more hand waving than a Broadway musical and more argument by assertion than a Baptist sermon.


Huh?

People agree that you can control your BABIP a little by keeping the ball on the ground, but for the most part, you can predict a pitcher's career BABIP pretty well by knowing little more than the GB%.

Tim Lincecum? Career BABIP of .293.
A.J. Burnett? Career BABIP of .290, including .294 this year.
Cliff Lee? Career BABIP of .295, .291 this year.
Fausto Carmona? Career BABIP of .295, including .291 this year.
Roy Halladay? Career BABIP of .292.

That doesn't strike you as a tiny bit odd?
 
2011-10-14 10:09:42 AM
chimp_ninja: 2) Detroit had a slightly superior team defense to the Yankees, if you look at the percentage of batted balls turned into outs (70.8% vs. 70.3%). They also allowed only 55 batters to reach on error, vs. 67 for the Yankees. (These don't show up in ERA, but they make the pitcher face extra batters, and force him to pitch from the stretch, with the infield in, etc. All pitchers perform worse with runners on.) Verlander's teammates likely saved him a handful of baserunners.

It's also worth noting that the Yankees have a shortstop with notoriously low range; this would also be reflected in their pitchers' BABIP.
 
2011-10-14 10:09:46 AM
Super Chronic: The Bestest: How DARE a player sign a huge contract with any team other than the Yankees! (slight paraphrase)

Whatever. I have no problems with teams outbidding the Yankees.. hell, I -prefer- it.
I had no problem with Cliff Lee going to the Phillies because it was apparent that there were factors besides money involved, which is cool with me. When it's JUST about money and/or ego, that's when you lose points in my book.
 
2011-10-14 10:10:00 AM
Honestly, the hell with him.
 
2011-10-14 10:13:56 AM
ignatius_crumbcake: Why would they let Wilson go and then sign CC? Does anyone think C.J. Wilson is going to cost more than CC Sabathia? Or does Wilson just want out of Texas?

This. I haven't heard about Wilson being desperate to leave. This is the first I've heard that the Rangers are "likely" to lose him.

Personally I hope they don't sign C.C. He's definitely good but I don't think he's worth what the Yankees have been paying. Maybe Daniels is just trolling the Yankees again.
 
2011-10-14 10:26:04 AM
Zombie Hitler: Honestly, the hell with him.

Why? If I were him, I'd opt out, call Cashman and say "You want AJ Burnett to be the Opening Day starter? No? Then pay me a whole lot of money"
 
2011-10-14 10:26:10 AM
chimp_ninja: People agree that you can control your BABIP a little by keeping the ball on the ground, but for the most part, you can predict a pitcher's career BABIP pretty well by knowing little more than the GB%.

If GB% strongly correlates to BABIP, then keeping the ball on the ground controls your BABIP more than "a little".

It's statements that anything except walks and home runs are "mostly pure luck" and that pitchers have "very little control" over other types of outs that are grating and unsubstantiated. There is a balance between WHIP and WAR that reflects actual ability. However, the tools needed to accurately find that balance are brand new and have not yet seen major league use.

The metrics of the '00s were revolutionary, but like most revolutions they will soon be replaced by something that actually works.
 
2011-10-14 10:26:47 AM
Lifeless: chimp_ninja: 2) Detroit had a slightly superior team defense to the Yankees, if you look at the percentage of batted balls turned into outs (70.8% vs. 70.3%). They also allowed only 55 batters to reach on error, vs. 67 for the Yankees. (These don't show up in ERA, but they make the pitcher face extra batters, and force him to pitch from the stretch, with the infield in, etc. All pitchers perform worse with runners on.) Verlander's teammates likely saved him a handful of baserunners.

It's also worth noting that the Yankees have a shortstop with notoriously low range; this would also be reflected in their pitchers' BABIP.


True. I like Defensive Efficiency, though, because it avoids trying to weigh a bunch of different players and gets to results-- if a ball is hit, does it end up as an out? Otherwise, you have to figure out how much Jeter/Nunez hurts vs. how much Gardner saves.

Range also gets funny because managers adjust to it. If you look at the charts for the Yankees, you might conclude that Granderson is terrible at making plays in LCF. But what's really going on is that Gardner has ridiculous range, so Granderson is usually deployed a couple steps towards RF to cover a little bit for Swisher. Swisher is above-average for a RF, too, so Granderson gets squeezed a little from both sides in terms of chances per 9.
 
2011-10-14 10:27:51 AM
Maybe they're just trying to make the Yankees spend more? Hoping at some point, they might have to stop? Shrug. C.C. is pretty good, it's not like it'd be a BAD deal.
 
2011-10-14 10:29:02 AM
The Bestest: Super Chronic: The Bestest: How DARE a player sign a huge contract with any team other than the Yankees! (slight paraphrase)

Whatever. I have no problems with teams outbidding the Yankees.. hell, I -prefer- it.
I had no problem with Cliff Lee going to the Phillies because it was apparent that there were factors besides money involved, which is cool with me. When it's JUST about money and/or ego, that's when you lose points in my book.


Keep telling yourself that CC, Teixeira, Burnett, A-Rod and all the rest are there for the mystique and aura. Even Jeter, who wouldn't re-sign until the team gave him a way-above-market deal for his past contributions -- you know, it wasn't about the money or ego, it was all about respect, right?
 
2011-10-14 10:35:32 AM
ryarger: It's statements that anything except walks and home runs are "mostly pure luck" and that pitchers have "very little control" over other types of outs that are grating and unsubstantiated.

You keep saying this, but don't bother to back it up.

ryarger: If GB% strongly correlates to BABIP, then keeping the ball on the ground controls your BABIP more than "a little".

No, it weakly correlates. High groundball pitchers can sustain BABIPs around .285, some others drift towards .300. This probably moves your ERA a couple tenths of a point. It's smaller than park effects, for example.

Feel free to browse the five cases above-- Fausto and AJ suck these days, but they continue to "control" BABIP about as well as Lee/Linecum/Halladay. And CC (.291 career BABIP.)

Verlander's flukish 2011 brought his career BABIP all the way down to .285. History tells us he'll probably regress towards the mean next year.
 
2011-10-14 10:42:11 AM
No thanks. Yanks can overpay that tub of lard. Not interested.
 
2011-10-14 10:44:46 AM
Pratty: Maybe they're just trying to make the Yankees spend more? Hoping at some point, they might have to stop?

That does your own team more harm than good in the long run. Raising the price in a genuine attempt to land the guy is one thing, trying to sap the Yankees is a fool's errand and only inflates the market which hurts everyone else.

Super Chronic: Keep telling yourself that CC, Teixeira, Burnett, A-Rod and all the rest are there for the mystique and aura. Even Jeter, who wouldn't re-sign until the team gave him a way-above-market deal for his past contributions -- you know, it wasn't about the money or ego, it was all about respect, right?

Didn't I make it clear how I felt about A-Rod? Tex is a merc. -Everyone- knows that. ..and yes, I was very displeased at the way Jeter/his agent went about his contract.
 
2011-10-14 10:51:10 AM
The Bestest: Didn't I make it clear how I felt about A-Rod?

You did, but I thought that was just the first contract, which he's opted out of.
 
2011-10-14 10:59:35 AM
lilbjorn: One weight-related leg or hip injury and he will be that guy.

Has anyone done a study on the durability of fat vs. medium vs. skinny pitchers? It seems like people always say that Sabathia is an injury risk because his weight puts too much strain on his legs, but Lincecum is an injury risk because his arm is too fragile to absorb the shock of pitching for years.

If I see three pitchers, all the same height/weight/age/ability, but one weighs 180, one weighs 220, and one weighs 260, who do I draft first?

I mean, both Maddux and Clemens lasted ~5,000 innings, and their body types (and, uh, chemistries) were very different.
 
2011-10-14 11:11:18 AM
chimp_ninja: lilbjorn: One weight-related leg or hip injury and he will be that guy.

Has anyone done a study on the durability of fat vs. medium vs. skinny pitchers? It seems like people always say that Sabathia is an injury risk because his weight puts too much strain on his legs, but Lincecum is an injury risk because his arm is too fragile to absorb the shock of pitching for years.

If I see three pitchers, all the same height/weight/age/ability, but one weighs 180, one weighs 220, and one weighs 260, who do I draft first?

I mean, both Maddux and Clemens lasted ~5,000 innings, and their body types (and, uh, chemistries) were very different.


I've suspected that the big thick guys would be more durable because of the ability to generate speed from more leg/torso and less arm, but it sure would be an interesting study.
 
2011-10-14 11:16:27 AM
chimp_ninja: If I see three pitchers, all the same height/weight/age/ability, but one weighs 180, one weighs 220, and one weighs 260, who do I draft first?

Use the same metric we use to judge all guys: how hot is the person he's nailing?
 
2011-10-14 11:17:31 AM
I love how it's a done deal he will opt out. Everything he and his wife has said was that they love NY and don't want to move. He saw what happened with A-Rod and I'm sure he doesn't want to go through that media storm. If anyone opts out of their contract it will be Soriano, so he can be a closer somewhere else.
 
2011-10-14 11:19:36 AM
So they're going to pay for him by the pound?
 
2011-10-14 11:23:08 AM
cfreak: This. I haven't heard about Wilson being desperate to leave. This is the first I've heard that the Rangers are "likely" to lose him.

Wilson isn't desperate to leave. He going to test the market, however. He would be a fool not to, because the free agent market for pitching this year is pathetic and he's going to command an absolutely insane contract that will probably put him among the Top 3-5 highest paid pitchers in baseball. Wilson is good, but he's not that good. And if you're the Rangers, if you're going to pay a pitcher Superstar money he might as well be a legit Superstar like Sabathia.

Frankly, if I were the Rangers I would let Wilson test the market and if he gets some outrageous offer I would tell him adios and wish him luck. Then I would put that money towards Prince Fielder (who would put up absolutely insane numbers in that ballpark), to fill Michael Young's spot. Their farm system is absolutely busting at the seams with starting pitching prospects, including Martin Perez who is a consensus Top 10 blue chip prospect who has been ready to come up for some time.
 
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