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(Some Guy)   Gary Schilling, the economist who correctly called out the subprime housing mess, says there's a good chance home prices fall another 20% next year and trigger a new recession   (thedesimag.com ) divider line
    More: Scary, smart growth, home prices, recession, decline  
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2658 clicks; posted to Business » on 14 Jul 2011 at 1:50 PM (5 years ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



112 Comments     (+0 »)
 


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2011-07-14 01:53:28 PM  
Time to raise taxes! That will fix everything.
 
2011-07-14 01:54:02 PM  
yeah right. why would i trust a comedian about the economy?
 
2011-07-14 01:54:49 PM  

lordaction: Time to raise taxes! That will fix everything.


No, obviously cutting social programs will show those pesky poor people how to find their bootstraps!
 
2011-07-14 01:57:57 PM  
Impossible. I put in new faux-granite counters just last year. The price can only go up from here.
 
2011-07-14 02:09:01 PM  
But I'm about to power wash and stain my deck. Should I hold off on this in case I get forclosed one?
 
2011-07-14 02:09:17 PM  
If the foreclosed homes drop in vaule due to mold and mildew issues (new window) will it keep home prices steady?


"It was the middle of winter. There were icicles coming out of the windows above the garage, no heat, but it was 80 degrees inside of the house because it was self-composting." -Realtor Rebecca Terakedis

On second thought who wouldn't want a self-composting home?
 
2011-07-14 02:12:42 PM  
Hey Now!
 
2011-07-14 02:16:53 PM  
That guy is so not funny. I hated his damn show.
 
2011-07-14 02:22:16 PM  
They need to still fall. We're still at 130% of the long term average.
 
2011-07-14 02:22:18 PM  
He definitely should have been the one to replace Johnny Carson.
 
jvl
2011-07-14 02:22:30 PM  
I was among the bears who saw the sub prime mess coming and who listened to everyone preaching that the mess was coming, and I'd just like to say "who the fark is Gary Schilling?"

/ Housing Bubble Blog FTW
 
2011-07-14 02:23:03 PM  
Great. It's official, I'm going to be my bank's biatch for the rest of my life.
 
2011-07-14 02:25:08 PM  

jdemanon: yeah right. why would i trust a comedian about the economy?


Come on, he's won three World Series rings!
 
2011-07-14 02:26:58 PM  
The guy who drew "The Far Side?"
 
2011-07-14 02:30:08 PM  
And this should come as a surprise to anyone who saw the housing crash coming in the first place?

I seem to remember saying about five years ago (repeatedly) that the crash was coming and I was saving my money to buy rentals at hugely discounted prices. I'm waiting another two years or so, then I will start buying again. And evicting the deadbeats.

Stupid and ignorant people only deserve death and to see my smirking face as I take their property.
 
2011-07-14 02:31:09 PM  

Stabone33: That guy is so not funny. I hated his damn show.


It's very dry humor, it's not for everyone.
 
2011-07-14 02:32:28 PM  
Yes, but what does Larry Sanders think?
 
2011-07-14 02:33:50 PM  

The Homer Tax: The guy who drew "The Far Side?"


No, this is the German guy who sang "Major Tom" and "Different Story" in the '80s.
 
2011-07-14 02:35:54 PM  
Eh, when you already have no money, you tend not to give a shiat if other people lose theirs too.
 
2011-07-14 02:36:07 PM  
Well I am sure our elected officials will agree on some policy to help the situation

get worse
 
2011-07-14 02:38:39 PM  
Most people's homes do not generate revenue, and if they do, the revenue is not dependent on its sale value. Falling housing prices follows a recession; it does not cause one. The only thing lowering housing prices might do is encourage renters to buy and discourage owners from downsizing. Even if you want to sell your house, if it's to move into a bigger one, you love lower prices. It will save you more than it costs you.
 
2011-07-14 02:41:47 PM  

rosebud_the_sled: And this should come as a surprise to anyone who saw the housing crash coming in the first place?

I seem to remember saying about five years ago (repeatedly) that the crash was coming and I was saving my money to buy rentals at hugely discounted prices. I'm waiting another two years or so, then I will start buying again. And evicting the deadbeats.

Stupid and ignorant people only deserve death and to see my smirking face as I take their property.


I know how u feel mate...
Some nice foreclosures happening lately .. and I reckon if I hold out a bit longer Im going to be rolling in acres and acres and acres of land ....

Give me cheer for idiots..

Hip .. Hip .. Hooray.
 
2011-07-14 02:42:14 PM  
So this guy has a bloody sock and pitched in the World Series.. what does he know about the housing market? Dummy.
 
2011-07-14 02:43:57 PM  

mitchcumstein1: Stabone33: That guy is so not funny. I hated his damn show.

It's very dry humor, it's not for everyone.


Well, I was 12 when it first aired. I thought Condor Man was a good movie, and that an ideal television lineup would have started with Airwolf, moved on to Knight Rider, and finished off with Miami Vice. And all three episodes would have been crossovers, with maybe some guest appearances from the Duke boys once in a while.
 
2011-07-14 02:45:43 PM  

jvl: I'd just like to say "who the fark is Gary Schilling?"


That Red Sox pitcher with the bum ankle.
 
2011-07-14 02:46:38 PM  
Good, they should go down another 20%

I don't really buy how that will cause another recession, though. Unless we want to say "a recession in the *housing* market*", perhaps.
 
2011-07-14 02:52:57 PM  

Stabone33: Well, I was 12 when it first aired. I thought Condor Man was a good movie, and that an ideal television lineup would have started with Airwolf, moved on to Knight Rider, and finished off with Miami Vice. And all three episodes would have been crossovers, with maybe some guest appearances from the Duke boys once in a while


We need to get you to Hollywood, stat.
 
2011-07-14 02:59:45 PM  
Buy a house for $100k, 30 yr loan, and when done paying it off have put in more than 250k. Sell for $200k and tell everyone you made a profit.
 
2011-07-14 03:01:57 PM  

Stabone33: Well, I was 12 when it first aired. I thought Condor Man was a good movie, and that an ideal television lineup would have started with Airwolf, moved on to Knight Rider, and finished off with Miami Vice. And all three episodes would have been crossovers, with maybe some guest appearances from the Duke boys once in a while.


I've always wondered, who would win in a fight:
Knight Rider
Airwolf
or MacGyver
 
2011-07-14 03:04:37 PM  
Great, every time homes get devalued in Florida our taxes go up. They should be going down, but nnnooooooo, they go up.
 
2011-07-14 03:07:24 PM  
Remind me to predict gloom and doom over and over again. One of these times I'll be right, and then I can use the one right prediction as authority to back up anything else I want to make.
 
2011-07-14 03:09:57 PM  

rosebud_the_sled: Stupid and ignorant people only deserve death and to see my smirking face as I take their property.


How much are your newsletter subscriptions again? :D
 
2011-07-14 03:13:24 PM  

Pick: Great, every time homes get devalued in Florida our taxes go up. They should be going down, but nnnooooooo, they go up.


Well, shucks, there's your problem.
 
2011-07-14 03:13:44 PM  

Satanic_Hamster: I've always wondered, who would win in a fight:
Knight Rider
Airwolf
or MacGyver


Trick question. Chuck Norris.

/ or the Goddamned Batman.
 
2011-07-14 03:14:40 PM  

jvl: I was among the bears who saw the sub prime mess coming and who listened to everyone preaching that the mess was coming, and I'd just like to say "who the fark is Gary Schilling?"


He's Peter Schiff with the "crazy" turned down.
 
2011-07-14 03:15:22 PM  
I didn't know we left the recession...
 
2011-07-14 03:17:05 PM  
If your house became worth $0 overnight, how would your life change in a negative way?

/Honestly curious.
 
2011-07-14 03:21:01 PM  

trouzourt: rosebud_the_sled: And this should come as a surprise to anyone who saw the housing crash coming in the first place?

I seem to remember saying about five years ago (repeatedly) that the crash was coming and I was saving my money to buy rentals at hugely discounted prices. I'm waiting another two years or so, then I will start buying again. And evicting the deadbeats.

Stupid and ignorant people only deserve death and to see my smirking face as I take their property.

I know how u feel mate...
Some nice foreclosures happening lately .. and I reckon if I hold out a bit longer Im going to be rolling in acres and acres and acres of land ....

Give me cheer for idiots..

Hip .. Hip .. Hooray.


images.cheezburger.com
 
2011-07-14 03:21:24 PM  
If average house cost more than 2.5 times the average annual income of a local resident, the local housing prices are too high and not sustainable. That's still true for many of our biggest cities. Expect more economic instability.

You can drive a smaller car, get a bigger deductable on your med/life/etc ... insurance, cook your own meals, and wait a few more years for a new wardrobe, but at the end of the day you have to have a roof with a door only you can lock to access it.
 
2011-07-14 03:33:09 PM  
Personally, I'm tired of looking at overpriced property. Even in this current market most people are asking 30% more than they should be.

I've been looking to buy the in-laws a place for the last 6 months. I have plenty of cash for the down payment and seem to be one of the few people out there who can be approved for a loan. I can't believe, in this market, how most people are unwilling to budge more than 5% on their asking price. They would rather have the home sit there for a year and eventually lose it than take an offer for what the home is actually worth.
 
2011-07-14 03:40:47 PM  

tricycleracer: If your house became worth $0 overnight, how would your life change in a negative way?

/Honestly curious.


Many people tap into the equity of their home when certain life events happen such as an expensive medical procedure, kids going to college or the need for a new car. If your home is worth nothing, you can't borrow against it. Also, many people have a difficult time with the thought of paying for something that isn't worth anything. So if a homeowner still has a mortgage and the value of their home goes to zero, many will stop paying their mortgage, even if they're still gainfully employed.
 
2011-07-14 03:54:45 PM  

chance4510: Buy a house for $100k, 30 yr loan, and when done paying it off have put in more than 250k. Sell for $200k and tell everyone you made a profit.


You did if you factor in the rent you would have paid in that same 30 years.
 
2011-07-14 03:55:07 PM  
media.kvi.com

Noted economist Lord Humongous offers some advice for underwater homeowners.
 
2011-07-14 03:57:52 PM  

rosebud_the_sled: And this should come as a surprise to anyone who saw the housing crash coming in the first place?

I seem to remember saying about five years ago (repeatedly) that the crash was coming and I was saving my money to buy rentals at hugely discounted prices. I'm waiting another two years or so, then I will start buying again. And evicting the deadbeats.

Stupid and ignorant people only deserve death and to see my smirking face as I take their property.


funny, you get rich off of them.
 
2011-07-14 04:01:03 PM  

tricycleracer: If your house became worth $0 overnight, how would your life change in a negative way?

/Honestly curious.


You'd be legally forbidden from selling your house until you fully paid off your mortgage. You would also lose your ability to borrow against what is likely your biggest asset, thereby reducing your ability to fund things like major repairs or renovations to the house.
 
2011-07-14 04:01:49 PM  

neversubmit: If the foreclosed homes drop in vaule due to mold and mildew issues (new window) will it keep home prices steady?

"It was the middle of winter. There were icicles coming out of the windows above the garage, no heat, but it was 80 degrees inside of the house because it was self-composting some Cartel zombies were growing pot inside it."
-Realtor Rebecca Terakedis


There...FTFY.
 
2011-07-14 04:07:38 PM  

Mad_Radhu: [media.kvi.com image 300x301]

Noted economist Lord Humongous offers some advice for underwater homeowners.


Hopefully it isn't this:

"Smegma crazies to the left! The gate! Gayboy berserkers, to the gate!"
 
2011-07-14 04:10:31 PM  
Prepare for some third-hand knowledge. According to several lawyers I know who work in foreclosures the banks are sitting on a ton of them. The scandels with bank records and lawyers getting busted for bad cases made them cautious. However they still have a whole lot of houses they want to foreclose on and when they get the nerve to do it there will be another run of foreclosures. That should pretty much bring house prices in line with historical averages.
 
2011-07-14 04:12:06 PM  

xtragrind: Personally, I'm tired of looking at overpriced property. Even in this current market most people are asking 30% more than they should be.

I've been looking to buy the in-laws a place for the last 6 months. I have plenty of cash for the down payment and seem to be one of the few people out there who can be approved for a loan. I can't believe, in this market, how most people are unwilling to budge more than 5% on their asking price. They would rather have the home sit there for a year and eventually lose it than take an offer for what the home is actually worth.


Sometimes the seller's agent tells the owner to stay at the listed price, due to the home having lost or not gained equity. Basically to come down would mean losing money.

When I bought my house, I wasn't able to get them to come down, due to the very brief time they'd own the home, and it being a recession, they had not acquired any equity in the place whatsoever. They were already selling the home for less than what they'd paid anyway, so I met them at that price and had the other, usual stuff covered by the owners (They paid closing, bought the warranty, etc.).
 
2011-07-14 04:13:43 PM  

xtragrind: Personally, I'm tired of looking at overpriced property. Even in this current market most people are asking 30% more than they should be.

I've been looking to buy the in-laws a place for the last 6 months. I have plenty of cash for the down payment and seem to be one of the few people out there who can be approved for a loan. I can't believe, in this market, how most people are unwilling to budge more than 5% on their asking price. They would rather have the home sit there for a year and eventually lose it than take an offer for what the home is actually worth.


Ditto. This. Etc. Your house isn't worth $225k, deal with it.
 
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