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(Bloomberg)   Your official "Unemployment Numbers" thread. 8:30 AM ET. Are you half as excited as I am?   (bloomberg.com) divider line 88
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1439 clicks; posted to Business » on 06 May 2011 at 8:35 AM (3 years ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2011-05-06 08:33:32 AM
9.0. Nine point fuggin oh.
 
2011-05-06 08:37:30 AM
In before the doom-and-gloom crowd.
 
2011-05-06 08:37:50 AM
statistically insignificant change from the last set of numbers.
 
2011-05-06 08:38:15 AM

guilt by association: In before the doom-and-gloom crowd.


Missed it by that much.
 
2011-05-06 08:40:19 AM
FTFA: "The labor market has finally moved into sustainable- growth mode," Guy LeBas, chief fixed-income strategist at Janney Montgomery Scott LLC in Philadelphia, said before the report. "We can expect growth numbers to be positive."

This summer should be pretty good.
 
2011-05-06 08:40:22 AM
inb4 losers
 
2011-05-06 08:41:08 AM

cameroncrazy1984: FTFA: "The labor market has finally moved into sustainable- growth mode," Guy LeBas, chief fixed-income strategist at Janney Montgomery Scott LLC in Philadelphia, said before the report. "We can expect growth numbers to be positive."

This summer should be pretty good.

 
2011-05-06 08:41:48 AM
Dead cat bubble! The F-150 number is 56%! These are people who gave up! What about people only working 30 hours a week!

FARTBAMAAAAAA!

I think that covers it.
 
2011-05-06 08:43:48 AM
FTFA: "The report also showed a decrease in long-term unemployed Americans. The number of people unemployed for 27 weeks or more fell to 43.4 percent of all job-seekers from 45.5 percent a month earlier."

Another good sign.
 
2011-05-06 08:44:43 AM

twobux: cameroncrazy1984: FTFA: "The labor market has finally moved into sustainable- growth mode," Guy LeBas, chief fixed-income strategist at Janney Montgomery Scott LLC in Philadelphia, said before the report. "We can expect growth numbers to be positive."

This summer should be pretty good.


Adding 235,000 jobs, more than projected isn't positive growth?
 
2011-05-06 08:45:52 AM

cameroncrazy1984: weeks or more fell to 43.4 percent of all job-seekers from 45.5 percent a month earlier."

Another good sign.



Depends on how they are counting. If that 2.1% were re-categorized as discouraged workers it is not a good sign.
 
2011-05-06 08:51:05 AM
do these number take into account people who have given up?
Or people severally underpaid?

/girlfriend gave up 4 years ago
//I'm salaried, I make the equivalent of around $6.80 /hr

my company has no employees anymore. just "contact employees" We can think Illinois and their never ending quest for more tax money. We are probably going to lose another one this month because of fuel prices. It costs close to $250 round trip between our two stores, (750 miles round trip)
 
2011-05-06 08:54:45 AM

invisbob: do these number take into account people who have given up?
Or people severally underpaid?

/girlfriend gave up 4 years ago


4 years? Is the holding out for a management position?
 
2011-05-06 08:58:06 AM

invisbob: do these number take into account people who have given up?


Does the jobless number count people who are not looking for jobs? No. It also does not count people who are retired.

Or people severally underpaid?

Does the jobless number count people who have jobs, but who think they should make more? No. That number is everybody.
 
2011-05-06 08:59:12 AM

twobux: cameroncrazy1984: FTFA: "The labor market has finally moved into sustainable- growth mode," Guy LeBas, chief fixed-income strategist at Janney Montgomery Scott LLC in Philadelphia, said before the report. "We can expect growth numbers to be positive."

This summer should be pretty good.


Maddow revealed(*) this on TDS the other day. News and other outlets get the report ahead of time but can't say anything about it. That's why they say things like "you can expect..." and look like they know what they're talking about.

(*) I figured something like this was going on, but didn't think it would be that widespread. What's the point in announcing something new if you've already told everyone what it is?
 
2011-05-06 08:59:27 AM

EatHam: invisbob: do these number take into account people who have given up?

Does the jobless number count people who are not looking for jobs? No. It also does not count people who are retired.

Or people severally underpaid?

Does the jobless number count people who have jobs, but who think they should make more? No. That number is everybody.


There is an "underemployment" figure out there somewhere. I think it's in the high teens / low 20s.
 
2011-05-06 09:01:08 AM

twobux: There is an "underemployment" figure out there somewhere. I think it's in the high teens / low 20s


Or maybe mid teens - FTFA - rose to 15.9 percent from 15.7 percent, today's report showed.

/not fully awake yet
 
2011-05-06 09:04:50 AM
I went 7 months unemployed and was going quite insane with nothing to do after job hunting. I knew the job market would open up after the first of the year, and sure as can be, by mid-February I got my dream job.

/life is good now.
 
2011-05-06 09:06:11 AM
in b4 McDonalds.

/though its nice to see half the poli tab here on the business side of things.
 
2011-05-06 09:06:39 AM
Got 2 jobs, and one of them involves watching baseball. Great success.
 
2011-05-06 09:06:45 AM
Luckily the unemployment rate in my household is currently 0%. This is a huge improvement over 2002, when the unemployment rate here was 100%.
 
2011-05-06 09:06:47 AM

twobux: There is an "underemployment" figure out there somewhere. I think it's in the high teens / low 20s.


Yeah, but that's not people who think they should be paid more, it's people who want full time, but are working part time.
 
2011-05-06 09:07:18 AM

vaderstg: in b4 McDonalds.

/though its nice to see half the poli tab here on the business side of things.


Good point. How many jobs did McDonalds add that day last month?
 
2011-05-06 09:08:47 AM

cameroncrazy1984: Adding 235,000 jobs, more than projected isn't positive growth?


Depends what your labor pool did. The "projection" as you well know, is pretty irrelevant except it means we get to feel good (or bad) about not forecasting the future.
 
2011-05-06 09:09:34 AM

enry: twobux: cameroncrazy1984: FTFA: "The labor market has finally moved into sustainable- growth mode," Guy LeBas, chief fixed-income strategist at Janney Montgomery Scott LLC in Philadelphia, said before the report. "We can expect growth numbers to be positive."

This summer should be pretty good.

Maddow revealed(*) this on TDS the other day. News and other outlets get the report ahead of time but can't say anything about it. That's why they say things like "you can expect..." and look like they know what they're talking about.

(*) I figured something like this was going on, but didn't think it would be that widespread. What's the point in announcing something new if you've already told everyone what it is?


Then why the fark do they always report it as "Unemployment was higher/lower than expected", or "Unemployment was higher/lower than predicted"? I mean, I guess the two aren't directly related (The news getting advanced noticed vs the "unexpected" result), it just bugs me every time I hear it. And I hear it every time.

/After a few decades one would think they could get a better prognosticator
 
2011-05-06 09:16:47 AM

twobux: Good point. How many jobs did McDonalds add that day last month?


62k or so? But its irrelevant. BLS uses a birth/death model that doesnt rely on actual info from every company. So unless McD's is in their "1/3" sample, you're not going to see those numbers actually reflected anywhere.

http://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesbd.htm
 
2011-05-06 09:18:29 AM

vaderstg: cameroncrazy1984: Adding 235,000 jobs, more than projected isn't positive growth?

Depends what your labor pool did. The "projection" as you well know, is pretty irrelevant except it means we get to feel good (or bad) about not forecasting the future.


Labor pool stayed about the same, I think. Have to look at the article again though.
 
2011-05-06 09:23:21 AM

Seven Mason: Then why the fark do they always report it as "Unemployment was higher/lower than expected", or "Unemployment was higher/lower than predicted"? I mean, I guess the two aren't directly related (The news getting advanced noticed vs the "unexpected" result), it just bugs me every time I hear it. And I hear it every time.

/After a few decades one would think they could get a better prognosticator


Two different timeframes. What I was talking about was the prognosticating that takes place within a day (or a few hours) of when the announcement takes place.

What you're talking about is estimates the 'experts' that don't have access to data are coming up with in the weeks leading up to the announcement. They're basically pulling numbers out of their butts and get to look good either way. If the 'experts' predict a rise in unemployment and it actually drops, then the good news trumps whatever they predicted and everyone is happy because the news is better than expected. If they predict unemployment goes down and it really goes up, you get everyone looking at the government asking why it went up and what data didn't they provide the 'experts'.

In the end it doesn't matter, since these numbers get routinely adjusted weeks later when nobody cares anymore.
 
2011-05-06 09:23:44 AM
Wife lost her job 2 weeks ago.
 
2011-05-06 09:24:17 AM

guilt by association: In before the doom-and-gloom crowd.


I suspect the doom-and-gloomers might be onto something. Back when the stock market crashed, everybody seemed to agree that it had undergone unsustainable growth, and that we were in some sort of bubble.

Now, even though unemployment is still high, housing prices are still falling, and gasoline is 4 dollars a gallon, the stock market is almost back up to the "unsustainable" level it was before the crash.

Meanwhile, there are 7 houses for sale in my neighborhood, some of which have been on sale for 2 years, unable to be sold. Also, a few scholarships that were offered last year by my university are not being offered this year due to a "lack of funds."

The cost of living is going up sharply, mostly to do with gas prices, but social security recipients were denied a cost of living increase.

It seems to me like a few fat cats up top are experiencing a tremendous recovery, while most of America still suffers, waiting to be trickled down on.

I'm not usually a doom-and-gloomer, but something just seems... off about this economy.
 
2011-05-06 09:26:54 AM

vaderstg: 62k or so? But its irrelevant. BLS uses a birth/death model that doesnt rely on actual info from every company. So unless McD's is in their "1/3" sample, you're not going to see those numbers actually reflected anywhere.


So if McDonalds did something like hire a million people (very unlikely, I know. But just for sharts and giggle), the unemployment figures wouldn't reflect it?
 
2011-05-06 09:31:12 AM

twobux: So if McDonalds did something like hire a million people (very unlikely, I know. But just for sharts and giggle), the unemployment figures wouldn't reflect it?


That's correct.

There's other lagging stats which "validate" these estimates - which is why they adjust every release a month or so after it comes out. Those stats would likely catch such a massive divergence. (e.g. states report how many ppl are on their unemployment rolls)
 
2011-05-06 09:35:18 AM

jack21221: Meanwhile, there are 7 houses for sale in my neighborhood, some of which have been on sale for 2 years, unable to be sold

at the prices the sellers want. FTFY.
 
2011-05-06 09:38:58 AM
The economy added 268,000 jobs. In the past, that paltry amount led to fear that the economy was going down. Now, it means it's getting better. That's sad.
 
2011-05-06 09:44:39 AM

Pick: Wife lost her job 2 weeks ago.


Women are not very good with directions.
 
2011-05-06 09:45:34 AM

cameroncrazy1984: Labor pool stayed about the same, I think. Have to look at the article again though.


Well couple things. The press-release claims that the #unemployed was held constant - but the charts show it actually went up by about 205k (which is why we went from 8.8 to 9.0). We "added 244k jobs" - but the BLS's chart shows us going down by 190k - and about 130k people left the work force; while 146k joined it.

What can we tell from this exercise?

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t01.htm
 
2011-05-06 09:54:29 AM

pjbreeze: The economy added 268,000 jobs. In the past, that paltry amount led to fear that the economy was going down. Now, it means it's getting better. That's sad.


Glass half empty / full deal.
 
2011-05-06 10:03:39 AM

jack21221: guilt by association: In before the doom-and-gloom crowd.

I suspect the doom-and-gloomers might be onto something. Back when the stock market crashed, everybody seemed to agree that it had undergone unsustainable growth, and that we were in some sort of bubble.

Now, even though unemployment is still high, housing prices are still falling, and gasoline is 4 dollars a gallon, the stock market is almost back up to the "unsustainable" level it was before the crash.

Meanwhile, there are 7 houses for sale in my neighborhood, some of which have been on sale for 2 years, unable to be sold. Also, a few scholarships that were offered last year by my university are not being offered this year due to a "lack of funds."

The cost of living is going up sharply, mostly to do with gas prices, but social security recipients were denied a cost of living increase.

It seems to me like a few fat cats up top are experiencing a tremendous recovery, while most of America still suffers, waiting to be trickled down on.

I'm not usually a doom-and-gloomer, but something just seems... off about this economy.


It's turning into a Randian economy.
 
2011-05-06 10:11:39 AM
I have 3 unemployment stories.

Friend 1 ran his Unemployment to 99 weeks, then went back to work for the company that laid him off at $3 less an hour because he had no choice. He was offered a job at 55K a year and turned it down because it would sometimes require him to work evenings (and they even said it would be once or twice a month). He didn't want to leave his son alone (he's 10), didn't want to get a babysitter or daycare, and made more lame excuses why he turned down the job. Now he's pulling in 29K a year at the very bottom of the toilet kind of work for our old company. This flabbergasted me completely.

Friend 2 got laid off 8 months ago, does the bare minimum to look for a job, and his health is failing fast. He's honestly obese (5 bills if he's an ounce), his gall bladder ruptured a few weeks ago leaving him laid up in the hospital, on top of the Diabetes, 2 hernias, and debridement treatments (DO NO look up debridement if you do not know what it is). Many of us think he'll die before he gets another job, not because the market is that rough, but because his health is failing that fast. He is in such poor shape physically, employers would hold that against him regardless of his knowledge, certificates, degrees, etc, and go with a healthier applicant. Why hire someone that is morbidly obese and missing work to go the hospital every few weeks? He's pretty much screwed.

Friend 3 has the good life. Just got his Bachelor's after 11 years of college (his mom had to come by every other day to make sure he did his homework, then checked it before he turned it in), his parents bought him a home to live in, they pay the mortgage, bought him a car, his mother got him an intern position at the Chamber of Commerce so he can have SOMETHING on his resume for the last 13 years (the last job he held was a projectionist at a theater in his early 20's). His boss at the Chamber of Commerce quit her job to work on a Mayoral Campaign, so he doesn't have a supervisor to check into, and claims he's still 'working', but really isn't, and spends most his day at the gaming shop playing Warhammer 40K, or Malifeaux, or talking both those games. All day. Recently, he hooked up with a chick, and she moved in with him a few weeks after they started dating so she can enjoy the free ride as well. This friend tells me he will kill himself once his mom (who pays all his bills) dies.

Damn, I need new friends!
 
2011-05-06 10:13:47 AM

GoodyearPimp: at the prices the sellers want. FTFY


At the prices they can possibly sell the house for to cover what's owed on their mortgage.
 
2011-05-06 10:19:26 AM

HST's Dead Carcass: Damn, I need new friends!


Wow. You must really like being the only guy at the table that can afford to pay for his own food.
 
2011-05-06 10:20:24 AM

jack21221: At the prices they can possibly sell the house for to cover what's owed on their mortgage.


See, there's the difference. "I ain't taking a loss on this" is why the house will continue to sit, eating up taxes and maintenance costs.
 
2011-05-06 10:27:20 AM

jack21221: Meanwhile, there are 7 houses for sale in my neighborhood, some of which have been on sale for 2 years, unable to be sold.


You either live in a shiatty neighborhood or your neighbors have their houses priced too high.
 
2011-05-06 10:31:11 AM

Omegamerc: pjbreeze: The economy added 268,000 jobs. In the past, that paltry amount led to fear that the economy was going down. Now, it means it's getting better. That's sad.

Glass half empty / full deal.


The glass is always twice as large as it needs to be

/once said by a wise engineer.
 
2011-05-06 10:34:27 AM
As a 99 weeker that has an interview for a great job in an hour and a half, I'm getting a kick out of these replies.

/You don't know how good it feels just to get an interview after that long
 
2011-05-06 10:39:36 AM

buzzcut73: As a 99 weeker that has an interview for a great job in an hour and a half, I'm getting a kick out of these replies.

/You don't know how good it feels just to get an interview after that long


Have you sent a thank you card to the Koch Bros for creating jobs, or to the Republicans for cutting their taxes so they would do it?
 
kab
2011-05-06 10:41:19 AM

guilt by association: In before the doom-and-gloom crowd.


I know, right? Unicorns and farking glitter for everyone!

NOW GET OUT THERE AND SPEND, GODDAMMIT!
 
2011-05-06 10:43:09 AM

buzzcut73: As a 99 weeker that has an interview for a great job in an hour and a half, I'm getting a kick out of these replies.

/You don't know how good it feels just to get an interview after that long


Good farking luck! Remember to primp to the aces, breath mints, not too much cologne, eye contact(!!!), and don't be too eager, but definitely let them know the asset they'll gain in hiring you.
 
2011-05-06 10:53:09 AM

buzzcut73: As a 99 weeker that has an interview for a great job in an hour and a half, I'm getting a kick out of these replies.

/You don't know how good it feels just to get an interview after that long


Good luck. I was unemployed for 6 months in 2008-2009. It was hell.
 
2011-05-06 10:56:29 AM

kab: guilt by association: In before the doom-and-gloom crowd.

I know, right? Unicorns and farking glitter for everyone!

NOW GET OUT THERE AND SPEND, GODDAMMIT!


Having learned from my last bout of unemployment, I'm squirreling away savings before I start spending. I burned through my savings in 10 weeks when unemployed trying to stay afloat. I ended up selling my car, dumping anything with a monthly fee, and lived very meagerly after the savings was gone. I've had enough Mac & Cheese to last 3 lifetimes at this point.
 
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