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(Live Science)   10 failed derpsday predictions   (livescience.com ) divider line 170
    More: Fail, predictions  
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15212 clicks; posted to Main » on 15 Feb 2011 at 11:00 AM (4 years ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2011-02-15 05:10:26 PM  

L33t Squirrel: Jonesy Boogieman: As for cold, LoL - my first wilderness survival test involved a lean-to and 3 days + 2 nights in -32 degree Celsius weather (not including windchill).

o_O

Sweet babby jeebus. It snowed here two and one weeks ago, and that left me feeling homicidal. (I do NOT like the cold.) That is freaking insane. But then, I did a tour in Kuwait, which didn't really bother me too much. Except for the severe lack of alcohol...

As for dad, he got a kick out of his tour, especially since mom was with him, so they kicked around with the locals, ate at restaurants and drank at pubs in town, and generally had a damn fine time.



Thanks for your service in Kuwait. Sincerely. (And not just because I HATE the heat, LOL!)

It's cool your mom got to join him! Do they still enjoy Turkish food?
 
2011-02-15 05:18:20 PM  

Jonesy Boogieman: Thanks for your service in Kuwait. Sincerely. (And not just because I HATE the heat, LOL!)


Heh, thanks. I was tech support, so I feel even worse for the poor computers. That sand is almost talcum-powder fine, and it totally FARKS UP electronics.

It's cool your mom got to join him! Do they still enjoy Turkish food?

I'm not sure, really. I imagine that dad still does (mom passed away a few years ago), since I grew up eating a wide variety of foods, many homecooked, and most were likely influenced by their overseas travel. (They also spent time in Spain and a couple of other places.) I'm keen on trying Turkish food myself, as if it's anything similar to schwarma, which I ate for the first time in Kuwait, I'll LOVE it. Mmmmmm. And as I mentioned in the coffee thread, I badly need to find Turkish Coffee here in the states.

Lulz, from religion to food. Only on Fark, no? :D
 
2011-02-15 05:20:54 PM  

Psycoholic_Slag: Only 10? They must not be familiar with the Jehovah's Witnesses.


If JW's were as honest as they claim to be, their motto would be "Predicting Armageddon (and failing) since 1914"
 
2011-02-15 05:26:47 PM  

James F. Campbell: Besides, everyone knows that an alien in a room at the Holiday Inn in Paramus said that the world would end on February 14, 2016.


I know I'm probably gonna get a "that's the joke" meme forced upon me, but there is no Holiday Inn in Paramus.

The film "Coneheads" was filmed there, however. That's about it.
 
2011-02-15 05:28:30 PM  

Fireproof: Farx: God's Church Ministry, Fall 2008 :

"there will be a maximum time of two years remaining before the world will be plunged into the worst time of all human history. By the fall of 2008, the United States will have collapsed as a world power, and no longer exist as an independent nation."

Sounds like Reverend Ronnie was a Republican.

The younger sister of my girlfriend at the time actually believed that guy's shiat. When the end didn't come on the exact date that he had predicted, he fell back on the old "This is just the BEGINNING of the end!" excuse and said that only he and his wife had witnessed it happening.

The worst part was that the aforementioned sister didn't know if she believed that or not.

/Still not sure which of the two sisters is crazier


The Witnesses pulled the exact same shiat. They kept saying the world was ending in 1914, that God was coming to smite the wicked, yada, yada, yada. So when 1914 came around and nothing happened, they backtracked by saying that 1914 was THE BEGINNING of the end and God was letting Jesus take over the "Heavenly Throne" or some stupid shiat like that. Then when WWI started, the JW's used that to back up their BS. "See? There's a war starting! That means we were TOTALLY right!" Yeah, like major wars never happened before 1914.
 
2011-02-15 05:29:22 PM  
The Yellowstone caldera - erupts every 650,000 years, wiping out 80% of life, and last erupted 650,000 years ago.

Global Famine - The sun has several concurrent solar cycles that run like clockwork. About every 200 years there is an extended solar minimum, and possibly every 400 years there is an even deeper solar minimum. We are at worst due for a deep minimum, and at best due for our regularly scheduled minimum period. The last time this happened was the Dalton minimum. During this time, the earth experienced the greatest subsistence crisis in recorded history, because of crop damage due to prolonged frost. At this time the earth's population was at around 1 billion. When this happens again, and it will, it's inevitable, Earth's population will be at least 8 times what it was then, and we already have 12% malnourished. If we have another 'year without a summer' like 1816, it will be catastrophic. If it's a deeper minimum like the Maunder minimum, and we have 2 in a row, we're back to the middle ages in terms of global population.

World War III - overthrown arab dictatorships turn into caliphate states one by one. The caliphate states band together in unity, and inevitably begin World War III vs the west, because GOD COMMANDS IT amirite.

Globalization and the Red vs Blue annihilation - the US eventually succeeds in globalizing the world and is now under singular world government rule. The political system adopted is that of the US. The world is now finally united, and simultaneously divided into two single factions, republicans and democrats. Partisan vitriol grows and grows over decades, eventually leading to civil war between the two factions, and the world experiences the greatest war possible, everyone vs everyone.

Apophis asteroid - in 2036, the Aphophis asteroid makes a remarkably close pass of Earth, coming within the satellite orbit distance. As feared, the proximity to Earth's gravity alters it's trajectory very slightly, and 7 years later it slams into Earth on it's next pass.

Consumption of the Earth by Nanites - Nanotechnology progresses, and eventually something simple, and sinister is created. Nanites that disassemble matter on a molecular level, consume it, and reproduce. Once accidentally released, they go on to consume everything on earth, growing in numbers exponentially. Once in the soil, they starve the plantlife by consuming available minerals, ensuring nothing can ever grow on earth again.


Extermination of humanity by machines - having survived all other cataclysms, this one finally gets us. The ultimate goal of anyone working in robotics and artificial intelligence, is to get as close to the real thing as possible. It stands to logical reason, that given enough time and enough progress, the inevitable result will be human-like artificial intelligence in a mobile, capable, human-like body.
 
2011-02-15 05:29:27 PM  

Jonesy Boogieman: I find it odd that Mormons and Jehovah's Witnesses are so popularly treated badly.

What ever happened to tolerance; treat others as you'd have them treat you (which is advocated in many religions (^)), etc.

Ever wonder if treating them badly convinces them you are a bigger sinner than most and in desperate need of saving, and therefore you reinforce their will to come back? Seriously, is it a leap to think that a religious person would think you're possessed because a decent person wouldn't be so hostile?

What's wrong with just having a simple chat and politely stating you "believe in something different, but thanks"?

It's concerning that some "faithful" people consider Mormon's and JW's nearly as enemies to be turned away with aggression. I bet that's missing a major point of your faith, whatever it is.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not the most tolerant guy either. I get particularly pissed off with selfish drivers, and arrogant people. But I don't waste time coming up with a knee-slapper for my fellow believers for when a Mormon of JW comes to my door.


Maybe it's the "dead children" issue of The Watchtower? The eight-twelve YO kids memorialized on the cover for having the faith to not accept blood transfusions and dying for it? Shunning, control, family break-ups, and the outright lies told by the upper echelon to the peons is a big factor in my angst.
 
2011-02-15 05:34:29 PM  
Maybe it's the "dead children" issue of The Watchtower? The eight-twelve YO kids memorialized on the cover for having the faith to not accept blood transfusions and dying for it? Shunning, control, family break-ups, and the outright lies told by the upper echelon to the peons is a big factor in my angst.

Don't forget the magic underwear.

wtf
 
2011-02-15 05:40:04 PM  

glassbottomboatcaptain: Maybe it's the "dead children" issue of The Watchtower? The eight-twelve YO kids memorialized on the cover for having the faith to not accept blood transfusions and dying for it? Shunning, control, family break-ups, and the outright lies told by the upper echelon to the peons is a big factor in my angst.

Don't forget the magic underwear.

wtf


Wrong cult. The LDS are the ones with the magic underwear.
 
2011-02-15 06:11:51 PM  

L33t Squirrel: Jonesy Boogieman: Thanks for your service in Kuwait. Sincerely. (And not just because I HATE the heat, LOL!)

Heh, thanks. I was tech support, so I feel even worse for the poor computers. That sand is almost talcum-powder fine, and it totally FARKS UP electronics.

It's cool your mom got to join him! Do they still enjoy Turkish food?

I'm not sure, really. I imagine that dad still does (mom passed away a few years ago), since I grew up eating a wide variety of foods, many homecooked, and most were likely influenced by their overseas travel. (They also spent time in Spain and a couple of other places.) I'm keen on trying Turkish food myself, as if it's anything similar to schwarma, which I ate for the first time in Kuwait, I'll LOVE it. Mmmmmm. And as I mentioned in the coffee thread, I badly need to find Turkish Coffee here in the states.

Lulz, from religion to food. Only on Fark, no? :D



Sorry to learn about your mother's passing.

I haven't had Turkish coffee, but in my limited exposure Turkish food is pretty good. :)

Heh, yeah, religion to food. Funny how food comes up in so many discussions!
 
2011-02-15 06:13:42 PM  
There's a May 21st End of the World billboard on my drive home asking you to tune into a local AM station for details. I had no idea that this is, apparently, a national meme.

I've always wondered what happens on the day after these claims fail to pass. Do they just say, "Whoops, forgot to carry the two!", or is there ever any backlash from their congregations.
 
2011-02-15 06:18:44 PM  

Turbo Cojones: Jonesy Boogieman: I find it odd that Mormons and Jehovah's Witnesses are so popularly treated badly.

What ever happened to tolerance; treat others as you'd have them treat you (which is advocated in many religions (^)), etc.

Ever wonder if treating them badly convinces them you are a bigger sinner than most and in desperate need of saving, and therefore you reinforce their will to come back? Seriously, is it a leap to think that a religious person would think you're possessed because a decent person wouldn't be so hostile?

What's wrong with just having a simple chat and politely stating you "believe in something different, but thanks"?

It's concerning that some "faithful" people consider Mormon's and JW's nearly as enemies to be turned away with aggression. I bet that's missing a major point of your faith, whatever it is.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not the most tolerant guy either. I get particularly pissed off with selfish drivers, and arrogant people. But I don't waste time coming up with a knee-slapper for my fellow believers for when a Mormon of JW comes to my door.


Maybe it's the "dead children" issue of The Watchtower? The eight-twelve YO kids memorialized on the cover for having the faith to not accept blood transfusions and dying for it? Shunning, control, family break-ups, and the outright lies told by the upper echelon to the peons is a big factor in my angst.



Could be, for some. I didn't know about this, myself, but now that I do I might ask about it if I feel like it the next time they come by. But I can see how others could use that as reason enough to be intolerant, not that they have any real say in what someone believes or how they practice their beliefs.

As for shunning, control, family break-ups, and the outright lies told by the upper echelon, there are examples of each of these from most religions. Islamic believers shun and abuse people. Catholics try to control and guilt people. Etc. Now, I'm not defending any one religion. I'm just stating that all have serious flaws, originated by people, and that having an open mind and tolerance to each is a way to fix that.
 
2011-02-15 06:38:51 PM  

glassbottomboatcaptain: The Yellowstone caldera - erupts every 650,000 years, wiping out 80% of life, and last erupted 650,000 years ago.

Global Famine - The sun has several concurrent solar cycles that run like clockwork. About every 200 years there is an extended solar minimum, and possibly every 400 years there is an even deeper solar minimum. We are at worst due for a deep minimum, and at best due for our regularly scheduled minimum period. The last time this happened was the Dalton minimum. During this time, the earth experienced the greatest subsistence crisis in recorded history, because of crop damage due to prolonged frost. At this time the earth's population was at around 1 billion. When this happens again, and it will, it's inevitable, Earth's population will be at least 8 times what it was then, and we already have 12% malnourished. If we have another 'year without a summer' like 1816, it will be catastrophic. If it's a deeper minimum like the Maunder minimum, and we have 2 in a row, we're back to the middle ages in terms of global population.

World War III - overthrown arab dictatorships turn into caliphate states one by one. The caliphate states band together in unity, and inevitably begin World War III vs the west, because GOD COMMANDS IT amirite.

Globalization and the Red vs Blue annihilation - the US eventually succeeds in globalizing the world and is now under singular world government rule. The political system adopted is that of the US. The world is now finally united, and simultaneously divided into two single factions, republicans and democrats. Partisan vitriol grows and grows over decades, eventually leading to civil war between the two factions, and the world experiences the greatest war possible, everyone vs everyone.

Apophis asteroid - in 2036, the Aphophis asteroid makes a remarkably close pass of Earth, coming within the satellite orbit distance. As feared, the proximity to Earth's gravity alters it's trajectory very slightly, and 7 years later it slams into Earth on it's next pass.

Consumption of the Earth by Nanites - Nanotechnology progresses, and eventually something simple, and sinister is created. Nanites that disassemble matter on a molecular level, consume it, and reproduce. Once accidentally released, they go on to consume everything on earth, growing in numbers exponentially. Once in the soil, they starve the plantlife by consuming available minerals, ensuring nothing can ever grow on earth again.


Extermination of humanity by machines - having survived all other cataclysms, this one finally gets us. The ultimate goal of anyone working in robotics and artificial intelligence, is to get as close to the real thing as possible. It stands to logical reason, that given enough time and enough progress, the inevitable result will be human-like artificial intelligence in a mobile, capable, human-like body.



I don't know much about the Yellowstone caldera, except that "last time" we didn't have the sophisticated technology and understand that we do now, and humanity still survived. I would hope we'd have some sort of heads-up: maybe just enough to evacuate, or enough to stockpile food and water. Besides, I'm a firm proponent of people having the responsibility to maintain their own emergency preps. If this became the norm, again, then it may not be as bad.

Global Famine is one I do have more concern for. Increasingly scarce land and water, and in some cases food sources, in the face of a growing population that is already having trouble feeding itself is a serious threat. Then take into account long supply chains and Just In Time inventory practices - another hurricane, terrorist attack, or whatever that pushes the price of oil up can impact the food supply. Worse, as you mentioned, are things like cold summers. :(

World War III: I really think we're pretty much passed this kind of war now. I think that, if something of that scale were to happen, it won't be an all out war like WW 1 or 2. It'll be a high altitude EMP attack, a nuclear weapon detonated in space, and we'll be slammed into the late 1800's, and vulnerable.

Globalization and the Red vs Blue annihilation: I can't see that happening. Global unification at some point, probably. Global civil war? No. Terrorist factions (continuing), probably.

Apophis: I thought this was debunked.

Nanites: I don't know anything about this. I think it's unlikley. Wouldn't something simple like Faraday cages deal with them?

The Terminator: I can't see this happening either. We already have directed energy weapons, and controlled EMPs. I think, even if this started to happen, it would be brought back under control fairly quickly.
 
2011-02-15 06:56:18 PM  
We were very lucky with Y2K. Look at what happened after Y1K - 300 years of Dark Ages.
 
2011-02-15 10:31:50 PM  
Nobody even mentioned X-Day, July 5th, 1998,
at 7:00am, when the world ended?


i2.photobucket.com
 
2011-02-15 11:25:04 PM  

Jonesy Boogieman: I don't know much about the Yellowstone caldera,


First debunking link on google. It's essentially a paranoia conspiracy theory akin to, "OMG there could be a solar super flare that scrapes the mantle clean!" The Yellowstone Caldera is particularly weaksauce because at best it would create an ash-cloud chill year and kill the United States. Humanity and its highest technologies would survive in other industrialized nations.

Global Famine is one I do have more concern for. Increasingly scarce land and water, and in some cases food sources, in the face of a growing population that is already having trouble feeding itself is a serious threat.

The only reason anyone starves in this day and age is because someone wanted them to. Maybe it's warlords blocking food shipments, maybe it's economic controls driving up the price of food production for profit, maybe it's because they're drug-addled/anorexic, but whatever the reason it is entirely human. I'm going to go out on a limb and say I would bet money that we could grow all the food we needed in greenhouses and hydroponics labs.

World War III: I really think we're pretty much passed this kind of war now.

Nuclear armageddon requires a cocktail of terror and desperation wherein two sides really want war and are convinced the other is about to utterly destroy them. Further, a post-nuke world has plenty of opportunity for civilization, basically birth/death rates and lifespans would return to 18th or 19th century levels despite still having modern technology.

Globalization and the Red vs Blue annihilation: I can't see that happening. Global unification at some point, probably. Global civil war? No. Terrorist factions (continuing), probably.

I'd add, "civil wars generally only happen when there are battle-lines."

Apophis: I thought this was debunked.

Pretty much, but it is oh-so popular.

Nanites: I don't know anything about this. I think it's unlikley. Wouldn't something simple like Faraday cages deal with them?

Well, presuming the science-fiction tech required to get universal Von Neumann machine nanites and associated matter-transmutation capabilities, hard nanites would require EMP overload to fry them and soft (protein-based "organic" nanites) would require burnination with fire or hard radiation. Both would be rather easily dealt out by hardened sweepbots

The Terminator: I can't see this happening either. We already have directed energy weapons, and controlled EMPs. I think, even if this started to happen, it would be brought back under control fairly quickly.

The thing about Skynet or The Machines or Enthiran or any other "killbots vs. humanity" is the presumption of certain models of economics and consciousness that are questionable at best, impossible at worst. AI won't be unstoppable androids and computer networks that can download into a tablet PC as a virus and then launch the worlds nukes. They are going to be harried and dog-like-loyal machines made of cheap plastic and aluminum. The terminator uprising would be brought down by a kid with a horseshoe magnet and the clone of Jon Belushi literally crushing a robot against his forehead in what becomes that year's most hilarious comedy action movie.
 
2011-02-16 07:57:24 AM  
The only reason anyone starves in this day and age is because someone wanted them to.

Nah, there's a pretty specific ratio of arable land required to sustain a person. I forget exactly, but I think it's around 2 acres. One summer without wheat and rice crops would be a catastrophe regardless of modern technology. The world can't survive a whole year on packaged food. Yes, we can definitely fill our food needs with greenhouses, except we're not going to get a *warning* that a summer of frost is going to happen. It's just going to happen, and we'll be halfway through the crop season before we realize it's just not happening, and by then we're already farked.

Apophis: I thought this was debunked.

They've determined it won't hit us on the first pass, but it will come close enough for us to alter it's trajectory in a way we can't predict, and they won't be able to determine whether or not it hits us 7 years later until after the 2036 pass. So basically in 2036 we find out whether or not we die in 2041.


I don't know much about the Yellowstone caldera, except that "last time" we didn't have the sophisticated technology and understand that we do now, and humanity still survived. I would hope we'd have some sort of heads-up:

Last time it happened we were swinging around in trees.

That's why I said '80%'. As for warning, we'd have a few minutes to a few hours most likely, and the government wouldn't allow us to be warned anyway. They already have a gag order on Yellowstone, they aren't allowed to warn the public if they suspect eruption is imminent. The White House and people who need to know would know, we wouldn't, to avoid a futile, country-wide panic. The ashcloud would cover most of the US within 2 or 3 hours, would be several hundred degrees, and extremely toxic. There's no point in trying to hide from it, because above ground there is simply going to be no oxygen for quite a while, nothing but hot gas and ash. The entire US is basically gone shortly after an eruption, and the rest of the world will have a nuclear winter to survive. Caldera eruption is simply something our technology can't help us with, like it or not every 650,000 years we have mass extinction event.

If you're a fan of repeating patterns in our universe, you might be interested in this bit of trivia: Yellowstone's eruption interval is 365 times in one galactic year (the time it takes the sun to revolve around the galactic center).



AI won't be unstoppable androids and computer networks that can download into a tablet PC as a virus and then launch the worlds nukes.

Seeing as how AI is developed *on computers* and *in labs* I think it's safe to say it will spend the majority of it's infancy floating around between tablets rather than in robotic dog form. And if you don't think the primary practical application of advanced robotics will be more effective unmanned military drones, you haven't been paying attention to what governments like to spend money on.
 
2011-02-16 01:09:53 PM  

glassbottomboatcaptain: AI won't be unstoppable androids and computer networks that can download into a tablet PC as a virus and then launch the worlds nukes.

Seeing as how AI is developed *on computers* and *in labs* I think it's safe to say it will spend the majority of it's infancy floating around between tablets rather than in robotic dog form. And if you don't think the primary practical application of advanced robotics will be more effective unmanned military drones, you haven't been paying attention to what governments like to spend money on.


No, true AI will be a computer the size of a house.

Think Edvac, then upscale.
 
2011-02-16 02:16:08 PM  

No, true AI will be a computer the size of a house.


Right, because if there's one thing true of computer technology, is that computers get bigger and bigger amirite.

AI is a matter of software design, not hardware resources. It's not like hardware limitations are what is holding us back from creating human-like AI.
 
2011-02-16 07:07:23 PM  
I'm not defending any one religion. I'm just stating that all have serious flaws, originated by people, and that having an open mind and tolerance to each is a way to fix that.

I'm a little too close to the problem (having lost someone to the JW cult) to be tolerant of the BS.

You speak troothily however!
 
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