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(Yahoo)   "Few believed the housing market here would ever collapse. Now they wonder if it will ever stop slumping"   (finance.yahoo.com) divider line 74
    More: Scary  
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3769 clicks; posted to Business » on 14 Feb 2011 at 5:35 PM (4 years ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2011-02-15 12:01:26 AM  

trotsky: The market here is still waaaaaaay overheated; I'm not sure staying anyway for more than five years. We did go house shopping when we first moved here and six figures buys you a shiatty foreclosure in the worst part of town. No thanks.


As a resident of Vancouver, BC I would just like to say: cry me a farking river. Poke around on http://www.mls.ca and see what kind of a house "six figures" will buy here. Hint: if that first figure is less than 4 the answer is "none".

Here is the cheapest detached house currently listed in Vancouver (the city itself, not the Greater Vancouver area), 900 square feet at $449,000 (new window). MLS #V831239 in case that link farks up.
 
2011-02-15 12:26:00 AM  
We need housing prices to go back up to where they were as much as we need $5/gal gas again.
 
2011-02-15 12:33:19 AM  

Ivo Shandor: Here is the cheapest detached house currently listed in Vancouver (the city itself, not the Greater Vancouver area), 900 square feet at $449,000 (new window). MLS #V831239 in case that link farks up.


That listing was painful to read. It's like a retarded, ESL, elementary school student randomly strung words together and then accidentally the whole thing.
 
2011-02-15 12:44:25 AM  

DigitalCoffee: Ivo Shandor: Here is the cheapest detached house currently listed in Vancouver (the city itself, not the Greater Vancouver area), 900 square feet at $449,000 (new window). MLS #V831239 in case that link farks up.

That listing was painful to read. It's like a retarded, ESL, elementary school student randomly strung words together and then accidentally the whole thing.


You should see the listings in San Francisco. I honestly think I can make a killing as a real estate agent because I can, if needed, (but not right now) form coherent thoughts in complete sentences. I can also take photographs that don't look like I handed the camera to my half-blind grandmother and told her to press the button when she thought she saw a nice looking blur. I also like hilarious euphemisms like "deferred maintenance" instead of "total shiathole that comes with the dead guy's food and drapery".

Half a million for that? fark you. Keep your dry rot.
 
2011-02-15 12:49:46 AM  
I was one of those "few".
Now I laugh heartily at the many who failed to see,
and weep for the damage they have done to all
in their greed.
/no, I don't hate to say "I told you so"
//I have that phrase written on my white board at work
 
2011-02-15 12:57:08 AM  
And here's another thing. I'm not going to go back and quote the dumb farker from the article, but he said something along the lines of "Well, I'm sure not going to buy until I know where the bottom is. Once prices start rising, that's when I'll buy."

I've got some stocks to sell that guy. Jesus, I'm not even that bright and it's a horrible strategy. Do the research. If you can afford the place, and the numbers look good, then you buy. Waiting for the idiot sheep to get back in the game is a great way to get burned. I like this rule - if I hear about it from the dumbasses at work, the real money has already been made.

I don't know what the fark I'm talking about really but I've worked with people who were trying to get me in on condo deals in Vegas in 2005. Unbuilt condos. Even my banker wanted me to buy a house in Idaho in 2006. What the hell am I going to do with a house in Boise?

It's like the stock market I guess.. look around and see what everyone else is doing.. then do the opposite.

I will of course, die penniless.
 
2011-02-15 01:06:02 AM  

Ronaldo Vega: They're still selling condos in South Florida for $600k. In some places, it hasn't slumped enough.


San Diego county median price, january 2011 = $304,000
median listing price = $359,000
Median price june 2006 = $539,225
Median salary january 2011 = $55,854

Nope, not enough yet. Keep going.
 
2011-02-15 01:32:30 AM  

Geotpf: Frankly, buying a house during the bubble was a no lose proposition.


For a no-lose proposition, there sure are a lot of people who lost.
 
2011-02-15 01:50:03 AM  
The market will continue slumping until everyone realizes that we're in a slump, and begins to believe that the market will always be slumping. At that point it will hit rock bottom, and can start going up again.

/Might be a while.
 
2011-02-15 01:59:11 AM  
- Rampant fraud on the part of appraisers, builders and mortgage lenders
- Too few first-time homebuyers and too many speculators
- Subprime mortgage industry required unsustainable growth in housing in order to remain solvent
- Housing glut resulting from 2 and 3

These factors artificially drove demand through the roof. The industry was built so shoddily that it wasn't even necessary for housing prices to drop to kill the market, only that they stopped rising at 10% per year. By 2005, savvy investors began seeing signs that the bubble was close to bursting and began looking for ways to short the market. By 2006, even the banks and mortgage companies could see the writing on the wall, but continued to issue mortgages and repackage them into derivatives because they had become absolutely dependent on them. By 2007, there simply weren't enough subprime borrowers left to sustain the industry. In 2008, the law of supply and demand took over.

There's really nothing to be done at this point except to let the market correct itself.
 
2011-02-15 08:31:28 AM  

moefuggenbrew: As some1 considering rent vs. buy in the next few months: I feel like renting is just 'throwing away money' EX: rent $1000/mo = $12,000 for 1 year with nothing to show - that money could have gone toward a morgage.

But many people on fark seem to beleive 'throwing away money on rent' is a false statement spun by the real estate mafia, could someone explain why renting would be better?


Renting a house versus renting a mortgage. Paying interest is "throwing money away", which is where practically every penny you spend on your mortgage is going for the first several years. Renting = throwing money away = real estate industry bullshiat to motivate you to buy and earn a dipshiat realtard their undue commission.

Pro tip: don't buy unless you plan to stay there for a very long time, like at least a decade. And don't count on its value increasing during that time. Srsly.
 
2011-02-15 08:49:50 AM  

moefuggenbrew: As some1 considering rent vs. buy in the next few months: I feel like renting is just 'throwing away money' EX: rent $1000/mo = $12,000 for 1 year with nothing to show - that money could have gone toward a morgage.

But many people on fark seem to beleive 'throwing away money on rent' is a false statement spun by the real estate mafia, could someone explain why renting would be better?


Repeat after me: A house is not an investment. "Building equity" is a big fat joke, even in a normal market. Let's assume that housing values increase at the same rate as general inflation. You've bought a house 5 years ago and now have $20000 equity in it. So what? It's not like you are richer. You can't tear a few shingles off your roof and buy a new car with them. You can only realize that equity by selling the house. (Don't sell before 5 years or so, or you'll end up losing money because the agent commissions will be larger than your equity). But you have to have a place to live, so you'll just use it to buy another house. Oh, you can use the equity as collateral, but that's a loan, not profit. You have to pay that back, at interest. So the only thing building equity gets you is the opportunity to take out a loan. Meanwhile, you have to pay taxes, insurance, utilities, MAINTENANCE (which isn't much for a newer house, but costs time to mow the lawn, shovel snow, landscaping, etc. unless you pay someone to do that).

So the decision to buy or rent should be based on what kind of lifestyle you want. Any price appreciation above and beyond inflation should be looked at as a gift. If you want a place to call your own to do whatever you want to with, and you don't foresee moving for at least 5 years, go buy a house. If you like not having to take care of stuff, and/or move every couple years, rent.
 
2011-02-15 08:52:18 AM  

PowerSlacker: Zero equity is better than negative equity.


^--- Truth. Anyone that buys solely because they believe that otherwise is "throwing money away" deserves to lose their shirt. And they probably will. RE maggots thrive on this sort of stupidity.

Geotpf: Meh, if the bank is stupid enough to basically sell you a free put option on a house, I can't really blame people for doing so.


I can. Houses aren't gambles or cash machines. Anyone that treats them as such is playing a high-risk game and ought to be subject to the losses as well as the gains. People that think they can skip out on the losses portion need a kick in the pills.

pounddawg: We will see "home values" drop even more as interest rates rise.


This is true. An interest rate rise of just a couple percent will have a downward force of approximately 20% on prices. Of course, this won't happen overnight, and there's no doubt that owners' denial will obscure some of that.

HerpaDerpaDoo: If by "few believed" you mean "a great many knew" then yes.


That's what bugs me, that people are still pedaling the "nobody could have known" crap. That's bullshiat. Anybody that spent a short amount of time looking at the aggregate pricing levels KNEW that this was going to happen.

There's absolutely no excuse other than laziness or stupidity for people to have been caught in it. It's not like they didn't know that prices were increasing annually at rates four times inflation, for several years.

Biggest purchase of your life? Spend more time researching it than you would a farking lawnmower, dumbasses.

Neurochemist: And the most important thing to remember in housing and finance...

Depreciation.

In general, houses do NOT go up in value. The value of structure is constantly going down, because it's getting older....

The only time a house increases, is when the value of the land increases faster than the value of the structure is decreasing.

People have simply forgotten/ignored this...


This. Basic economics. People can be conned into believing that rent = throwing money away, yet ignore interest, repairs, maintenance, taxes, insurance, weather damage, etc. Go figure, we live in a land of pie-in-the-sky morons that just want to liquidate some equity and live in a fantasy land.
 
2011-02-15 09:28:05 AM  

gunther_bumpass: DigitalCoffee: Ivo Shandor: Here is the cheapest detached house currently listed in Vancouver (the city itself, not the Greater Vancouver area), 900 square feet at $449,000 (new window). MLS #V831239 in case that link farks up.

That listing was painful to read. It's like a retarded, ESL, elementary school student randomly strung words together and then accidentally the whole thing.

You should see the listings in San Francisco. I honestly think I can make a killing as a real estate agent because I can, if needed, (but not right now) form coherent thoughts in complete sentences. I can also take photographs that don't look like I handed the camera to my half-blind grandmother and told her to press the button when she thought she saw a nice looking blur. I also like hilarious euphemisms like "deferred maintenance" instead of "total shiathole that comes with the dead guy's food and drapery".


The real estate industry is notorious for its low barriers of entry, ridiculous commissions, and a systemically inherent conflict that pretty much guarantees that agents lying and will fark you over as soon as they can.
 
2011-02-15 10:34:14 AM  

mod3072: This just in: Some most people aren't very smart. Film at 11.


FTFY
 
2011-02-15 10:53:35 AM  
Slight threadjack here, but I have an interview in the Seattle area next week. It's in Bremerton. Any farkers Know where the best places are to rent or buy near there so I can take a look after the interview?

Thanks! Also, thanks for all the good advice already in this thread.
 
2011-02-15 11:00:27 AM  
"Spent within your means" is a very nice way of saying 'fark the economy, 98% of you that are living on low wages.' You want the housing market constantly rising? Put more high-paying jobs back. With the credit crunch and the lack of good jobs out there (ones that can support you), nothing is moving until people get more money in their wallets.
 
2011-02-15 01:29:35 PM  

Guntram Shatterhand: "Spent within your means" is a very nice way of saying 'fark the economy, 98% of you that are living on low wages.' You want the housing market constantly rising? Put more high-paying jobs back. With the credit crunch and the lack of good jobs out there (ones that can support you), nothing is moving until people get more money in their wallets.


Sorry, but housing is simply overpriced due to either smug blue cities restricting the building of residential housing and tranportation infrastructure (see NYC, Boston, SFB, SoCal, DC, Minn, and Seattle) or smug blue federal legislators severly restricting land use (see Las Vegas, Phoenix, and SoFL). The traditional cost of a house was 2.5 times the areas median annual household income. In the places listed above it often reaches 7. That's simply not sustainable.
 
2011-02-15 02:12:27 PM  

nlscb: Guntram Shatterhand: "Spent within your means" is a very nice way of saying 'fark the economy, 98% of you that are living on low wages.' You want the housing market constantly rising? Put more high-paying jobs back. With the credit crunch and the lack of good jobs out there (ones that can support you), nothing is moving until people get more money in their wallets.

Sorry, but housing is simply overpriced due to either smug blue cities restricting the building of residential housing and tranportation infrastructure (see NYC, Boston, SFB, SoCal, DC, Minn, and Seattle) or smug blue federal legislators severly restricting land use (see Las Vegas, Phoenix, and SoFL). The traditional cost of a house was 2.5 times the areas median annual household income. In the places listed above it often reaches 7. That's simply not sustainable.


Why not? If people can't afford to buy a house near work, they can rent an apartment, live farther away from work and commute, or get another job somewhere where houses are cheaper.
 
2011-02-15 06:56:35 PM  
dead cat bouncing, great time to buy!

/selling :(
 
2011-02-15 08:01:09 PM  

HawaiiE: Slight threadjack here, but I have an interview in the Seattle area next week. It's in Bremerton. Any farkers Know where the best places are to rent or buy near there so I can take a look after the interview?

Thanks! Also, thanks for all the good advice already in this thread.


Bremerton is kinda near Seattle, except you have to take a 45 minute ferry ride to get there. If you work in Bremerton, you're basically stuck on the Olympic Peninsula. I've lived in Seattle for 14 years and only been over there once, for a Soundgarden show in 1995. Bremerton is pretty much a pit, it's a worn down Navy town. There's plenty of affordable housing around Bremerton, but it's probably mostly trashy. But good luck! A job's a job, and they're getting hard to find.
 
2011-02-15 09:43:34 PM  

moefuggenbrew: As some1 considering rent vs. buy in the next few months: I feel like renting is just 'throwing away money' EX: rent $1000/mo = $12,000 for 1 year with nothing to show - that money could have gone toward a morgage.

But many people on fark seem to beleive 'throwing away money on rent' is a false statement spun by the real estate mafia, could someone explain why renting would be better?


To add to what many others have said here, even owning a house is "throwing money away", but it's on the interest payments and lots of other things instead of rent.

Here's the downside of owning. Suppose instead of renting you buy a house for $150,000 and get a mortgage at 5.25% for $140,000 of it with a $10,000 down payment. The first year you're "throwing away" in the ballpark of $7000 in interest, and about the same the second year, and the third etc..... On top of that, you also have to pay taxes on the house you purchased, odds are the utilities will be higher, and the house doesn't keep itself in good shape on it's own. So you either become a repairman or you pay a plumber, electrician, etc... whenever you have a problem with something. It gets expensive fast to hire people to do all that stuff. Also, general upkeep like mowing the grass etc costs money. Own a lawnmower? Time to buy one. Unless you have a homeowner's association that takes care of that stuff. But then you have association fees. I could go on but you get the idea. Once you add up all the costs of general upkeep etc... you'll probably find you're "throwing away" more money owning a house than renting. And the bigger the house is the more money you'll "waste" on higher utilities, having to put "things" in all those extra rooms, etc...

All that being said, here's the upside of owning a home. It's your place to do what you want.
 
2011-02-16 10:54:08 AM  
It's not a slump, it's a reality check.

That 2000sf house made of gypsum board and boogers on a quarter-acre plot in the desolate exurbs 50 miles from a small city? It wasn't worth a third of a million dollars back when people were willing to pay that much, and it will never be worth that much (adjusted for inflation) in the future.
 
2011-02-16 11:39:14 AM  

MC O'Brien: HawaiiE: Slight threadjack here, but I have an interview in the Seattle area next week. It's in Bremerton. Any farkers Know where the best places are to rent or buy near there so I can take a look after the interview?

Thanks! Also, thanks for all the good advice already in this thread.

Bremerton is kinda near Seattle, except you have to take a 45 minute ferry ride to get there. If you work in Bremerton, you're basically stuck on the Olympic Peninsula. I've lived in Seattle for 14 years and only been over there once, for a Soundgarden show in 1995. Bremerton is pretty much a pit, it's a worn down Navy town. There's plenty of affordable housing around Bremerton, but it's probably mostly trashy. But good luck! A job's a job, and they're getting hard to find.


Thanks for the advice! It would not be a permanent move, more like 2 years or so then back to Hawaii with a few steps up the career ladder.
 
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