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(Yahoo)   New unemployment claims continue to fall in the latest weekly data. Is this the Boehner recovery?   (finance.yahoo.com) divider line 47
    More: Spiffy, unemployment claims, Novartis, Boehner, Livonia, fundAnalyst, ThomsonFN, United States Department of Commerce, Third World  
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771 clicks; posted to Business » on 28 Oct 2010 at 1:03 PM   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2010-10-28 09:15:01 AM
This bodes very well for the October jobs report, which of course won't come out until 3 days after the election. But regardless of who tries to take the credit, good news is good news.
 
2010-10-28 09:19:28 AM
Well, as unemployment is a lagging indicator this could be good news supporting the claim that the recession is over OR it could mean that more people have stopped looking for work and thus don't show up.

IIRC, you should see a slight uptick in unemployment right before the economy gets back into gear, as more people get out actively looking for jobs.
 
2010-10-28 09:21:33 AM
i.imgur.com
 
2010-10-28 09:23:28 AM
It might mean more people ran out of benefits and are now about to be homeless and broke. Or they broke down and took that job as a Sonic car hop.
 
2010-10-28 10:17:51 AM
Angry Drunk Bureaucrat: Well, as unemployment is a lagging indicator this could be good news supporting the claim that the recession is over OR it could mean that more people have stopped looking for work and thus don't show up.

IIRC, you should see a slight uptick in unemployment right before the economy gets back into gear, as more people get out actively looking for jobs.


These are *new* unemployment claims. They don't reflect people who've been out of work for a while, only people who recently lost their jobs. The fact that there are fewer layoffs is in itself a leading indicator to a possible uptick in hiring. We're still a few months off from any real improvement in the unemployment rate, but the direction of the labor market looks to be turning positive this fall.

/Haha, fall of recovery, haha
//Except that it is
 
2010-10-28 10:21:19 AM
boner.
 
2010-10-28 10:39:07 AM
Algebrat: These are *new* unemployment claims.

Yeah, I'll admit my reading comprehension has been unemployed for some time, and has given up looking and working.
 
2010-10-28 11:34:37 AM
basemetal: It might mean more people ran out of benefits and are now about to be homeless and broke. Or they broke down and took that job as a Sonic car hop.

I've already talked about the first point you make, but as for the second (though it's also not related to this data), average weekly earnings have been crawling up for a few months now.
 
2010-10-28 12:02:22 PM
This is due to the economy recovering because of the probability that the Republicans will take back the House and Senate. Finally, the grown-ups will be back in charge and will roll us back to the laws and rules that helped us enjoy the economic boom of the previous decade.
 
2010-10-28 01:04:56 PM
Nah. Not good news, people are just unemployed so long they're losing eligibility, hence the claims go down.
 
2010-10-28 01:09:03 PM
ihatedumbpeople: Nah. Not good news, people are just unemployed so long they're losing eligibility, hence the claims go down.

How does that affect new claims?
 
2010-10-28 01:13:10 PM
ihatedumbpeople: Nah. Not good news, people are just unemployed so long they're losing eligibility, hence the claims go down.

You must hate yourself.
 
2010-10-28 01:13:31 PM
ihatedumbpeople: Nah. Not good news, people are just unemployed so long they're losing eligibility, hence the claims go down.

If you even bothered to read the thread, you'd know this is nonsense.
 
2010-10-28 01:23:31 PM
AdolfOliverPanties: This is due to the economy recovering because of the probability that the Republicans will take back the House and Senate. Finally, the grown-ups will be back in charge and will roll us back to the laws and rules that helped us enjoy the economic boom of the previous decade.

You are pretty funny.
 
2010-10-28 01:24:10 PM
ihatedumbpeople: Nah. Not good news, people are just unemployed so long they're losing eligibility, hence the claims go down.

Ironic fark handle alert!
 
2010-10-28 01:28:55 PM
At this level I wouldn't call it good news, but the fact new claims dropped does mean it's not bad news. In general a single week of data is pointless as to detwrmining the strength of the recovery.
 
2010-10-28 01:32:43 PM
Boner Recovery? Is that where your sister takes over when I am done with your mom?
 
2010-10-28 01:39:57 PM
bad_ed: Boner Recovery? Is that where your sister takes over when I am done with your mom?

Not amused:

popomaticjeff.files.wordpress.com
 
2010-10-28 01:41:33 PM
How does this affect my poitics so I know how to react to this news?
 
2010-10-28 01:44:08 PM
Saiga410: How does this affect my poitics so I know how to react to this news?

Easy: "The policies initiated by the (my political party) are finally kicking in. It would have happened sooner if there wasn't so much resistance from (opposite party). Hopefully the (my party) candidates will win their elections so this uptick can be molded into a full recovery.
 
2010-10-28 01:44:36 PM
AdolfOliverPanties: This is due to the economy recovering because of the probability that the Republicans will take back the House and Senate. Finally, the grown-ups will be back in charge and will roll us back to the laws and rules that helped us enjoy the economic boom of the previous decade.

So companies have been refusing to hire due to the mean ol' Dems being in charge, until unemployment numbers improve a week before the election, in which case they started hiring based on an assumed future. Perfectly logical every step of the way.
 
2010-10-28 01:51:15 PM
Saiga410: How does this affect my poitics so I know how to react to this news?

Always default to outrage. You'll rarely be wrong.
 
2010-10-28 01:53:55 PM
basemetal: Or they broke down and took that job as a Sonic car hop.

Bootstrappy!
 
2010-10-28 01:56:38 PM
If only people would give Obama a little of their faith, instead of falling for the doom-and-gloom rhetoric of his critics.
 
2010-10-28 02:05:45 PM
Clearly this is Obama's fault.
 
2010-10-28 02:10:56 PM
Algebrat: Angry Drunk Bureaucrat: Well, as unemployment is a lagging indicator this could be good news supporting the claim that the recession is over OR it could mean that more people have stopped looking for work and thus don't show up.

IIRC, you should see a slight uptick in unemployment right before the economy gets back into gear, as more people get out actively looking for jobs.

These are *new* unemployment claims. They don't reflect people who've been out of work for a while, only people who recently lost their jobs. The fact that there are fewer layoffs is in itself a leading indicator to a possible uptick in hiring. We're still a few months off from any real improvement in the unemployment rate, but the direction of the labor market looks to be turning positive this fall.


Lulz. I think you meant "a few years."
 
2010-10-28 02:12:19 PM
basemetal: It might mean more people ran out of benefits and are now about to be homeless and broke. Or they broke down and took that job as a Sonic car hop.

I'm not sure the second explanation holds in an environment where about 100% of jobs are flooded with applicants the minute they are made available. If someone refuses to apply for a job because it pays 1/2 of what he used to make, that job is still going to be filled by someone else who wants to have it, and the total number of unemployed people will remain the same. It's just a matter of the rich guy being unemployed instead of the poor guy.
 
2010-10-28 02:19:57 PM
error 303: Clearly this is Obama's fault.

Which is good news... for Obama.
 
2010-10-28 02:27:11 PM
ihatedumbpeople: Nah. Not good news, people are just unemployed so long they're losing eligibility, hence the claims go down.

Incoming self loathing.
 
2010-10-28 02:53:52 PM
They go up, they go down, but it all averages to about the same for this year
OR
One data point does not make a trend.
Link (new window)
 
2010-10-28 02:57:26 PM
And how many weeks in a row have their been upward revisions of jobless claims? It's been roughly 25-26 of the past weeks now. Sort of likel the first GDP number is a blowout, then the final number is way less, but expecations have been lowered even further so even the lousy final revision still 'beats expectations'.

For now this is just statistical noise. It takes more than one week to make a trend.

I was no fan of Bush but this current 'recovery' is nothing but PR fluff to anyone who knows how to read through the actual stats.

http://www.rttnews.com/CorpInfo/EconomicCalendar.aspx
 
2010-10-28 03:32:41 PM
un4gvn666: ihatedumbpeople: Nah. Not good news, people are just unemployed so long they're losing eligibility, hence the claims go down.

If you even bothered to read the thread, you'd know this is nonsense.


Read articles? Who has time for anythign but spouting random nonsense??
 
2010-10-28 03:54:41 PM
basemetal: It might mean more people ran out of benefits and are now about to be homeless and broke. Or they broke down and took that job as a Sonic car hop.

I didn't quite sink to that level, but I have recently accepted work that pays half of what I used to make, and I am grateful for it.

Given a few more months of unemployment, I might be looking at Sonic/BK/McD's as well...

/ economy in Oregon is sad.
 
2010-10-28 04:02:30 PM
Forbidden Doughnut: I didn't quite sink to that level, but I have recently accepted work that pays half of what I used to make, and I am grateful for it.

Given a few more months of unemployment, I might be looking at Sonic/BK/McD's as well...

/ economy in Oregon is sad.


At least in Portland companies seem to be listing more jobs. Lower pay than it would have been a few years ago, and you might not get the job yourself, but at least there are a lot of listings. Anywhere outside the Portland area seems a lot rougher.
 
2010-10-28 04:49:14 PM
This surely wouldn't have anything at all to do with the fact that temporary election workers were required to fill out a W-4 for the first time ever, would it?

This was required before they received training for the big day so the numbers would look slightly better just in time for the big day.

The New York City Board of Elections, which uses 30,000 to 36,000 temporary workers for both the primary and general election, said it is being ordered by the Internal Revenue Service to make "employees" out of the very temporary workers who tend the polling sites.

But an IRS spokesperson couldn't find such an order.

"The Internal Revenue Service has determined that all poll workers are considered employees of the Board of Elections for tax purposes," said a Board memo dated Aug. 2 and signed by Rosanna Kostamoulas Rahmouni, coordinator of Election Day Operations.

"Therefore, the Board is required to have every poll worker complete the following before processing your application for work," her note added, listing tax forms W-4 and IT-2104 as necessary.

"It is imperative that you promptly submit the forms or you will not be paid for your training class or processed to work on Election Day," she said.

Although the note was dated Aug. 2 it apparently wasn't delivered to poll workers until very late in August. Workers get paid only $100 for training and $200 each day for working the primary and general election. So it's unlikely that the main purpose of this order is to collect the measly amount of taxes that would be owed -- mostly by the low-income retirees who man the polling centers -- on such a small amount of wages.

But if the election boards in all 50 states suddenly report an influx of additional government workers, the effect on the monthly employment numbers could be very, very significant.
 
2010-10-28 05:33:23 PM
DNRTFA, but I'd guess a large number of them are people whose benefits have expired dropping off the list.
 
2010-10-28 05:55:50 PM
Algebrat: These are *new* unemployment claims. They don't reflect people who've been out of work for a while, only people who recently lost their jobs. The fact that there are fewer layoffs is in itself a leading indicator to a possible uptick in hiring. We're still a few months off from any real improvement in the unemployment rate, but the direction of the labor market looks to be turning positive this fall.

You know, they scraped a guy up off the pavement down the road a piece. I understand he was bleeding like a sonovabiatch when it first happened, but the bleeding slowed then stopped. He must have gotten better, because the ambulance workers wanted nothing to do with him.

Right?
 
2010-10-28 06:13:39 PM
Mine needs no recovery. It's always ready to go.
 
2010-10-28 06:18:22 PM
amaranthe: DNRTFA, but I'd guess a large number of them are people whose benefits have expired dropping off the list.

DNRTFA and DNRTFT. Also DNKAATI (Does Not Know Anything About the Issue).

(Pssst...these are NEW unemployment applications. It has nothing at all to do with people "dropping off the list").
 
2010-10-28 06:31:20 PM
5% does not indicate a sharp drop. Stop sensationalizing.
 
2010-10-28 06:35:53 PM
i52.tinypic.com
 
2010-10-29 08:18:34 AM
Move to Maine.

We've posted 4 positions over the State's standard wage (by far) and we've had 3 qualifying applications each and the candidates were not great by any means.

Epidemiologist, Public Health Educator, Planning and Research Assistants (high level executive secretary/low level supervisor).
 
2010-10-29 09:29:11 AM
BHShaman: Move to Maine.

We've posted 4 positions over the State's standard wage (by far) and we've had 3 qualifying applications each and the candidates were not great by any means.

Epidemiologist, Public Health Educator, Planning and Research Assistants (high level executive secretary/low level supervisor).


Being in the field of public health myself, I find this fascinating...public health grad school is the next psychology grad school. Tons of people going into public health. Although most don't know their ass from their elbow. I would have figured there would at least be more applications.
 
2010-10-29 10:05:47 AM
No. Thankfully, the "Boehner Recovery" will come in early 2012, just in time for voters to realize they'd better shove the corporate-shill Republicans back in the closet or they'll take us all down again.
 
2010-10-29 11:44:04 AM
Goimir: Algebrat: These are *new* unemployment claims. They don't reflect people who've been out of work for a while, only people who recently lost their jobs. The fact that there are fewer layoffs is in itself a leading indicator to a possible uptick in hiring. We're still a few months off from any real improvement in the unemployment rate, but the direction of the labor market looks to be turning positive this fall.

You know, they scraped a guy up off the pavement down the road a piece. I understand he was bleeding like a sonovabiatch when it first happened, but the bleeding slowed then stopped. He must have gotten better, because the ambulance workers wanted nothing to do with him.

Right?


That's a pretty good metaphor, since unemployment is close to 100%. People are losing fewer jobs because there are no more jobs to lose. I mean, it feels right, so it's gotta be right. Right?
 
2010-10-30 01:35:07 AM
Algebrat:
That's a pretty good metaphor, since unemployment is close to 100%. People are losing fewer jobs because there are no more jobs to lose. I mean, it feels right, so it's gotta be right. Right?


Actually, death by exsanguination rarely involves loss of all blood. There comes a point before complete blood loss, especially when bleeding is relatively slow but continues unabated, that the heart no longer functions, for a variety of reasons, which causes bleeding to stop. Blood loss will slow as blood volume and pressure decrease, especially to extremities.

Similarly, society will cease to function long before 100% unemployment is reached, regardless of the reason for the condition. I can't tell you what this number is. I don't think we're there, or will be there any time soon. I can tell you that there are less, overall, non-essential workers in the workforce than there were in 2000, you can agree with that, right?

Once you've gotten to a certain % of floor sweepers, redundant/standby personnel, telephone sanitizers, etc, the only people left to lay off are the people who will be missed, those who NEED to be there for the business to function with the same outcomes as before, i.e., if you have a shop with 10 guys that each know how to run 3 machines, and one machine for each guy, how many can you lay off before you have machines that can't be run at all because nobody knows how to use them? Assuming equal distribution the answer is 6. Lay off 7 and one machine is a paperweight. Lay off 8 and four machines collect dust. Lay off all but one and you're down to having only three machines that you can use.

And much like "full employment" is not 0% unemployment, there is a certain point at which this necessary/discretionary employment ratio becomes azeotropic.
 
2010-10-31 11:22:09 PM
The Feds continue to manipulate the numbers. The 'official' unemployment numbers will be revised upwards after the mid-term elections. Same old story, same old song and dance.
 
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