umm...yeah. that's great news.

he said. "The balls do not have a memory."

Mine do.

This is only news to the statistically retarded.

This is only news to the statistically retarded.

The odds of this happening are the same as picking any other two random sets of numbers in the same day.

"Unlikely" is that set of numbers being 4, 14, 19, 32, 36, 37.

/crosses fingers

This is only news to the statistically retarded.

This is only news to the statistically retarded.

It's insensitive to make fun of the statistically retarted

This is only news to the statistically retarded.

(shrug) It's an unlikely event, 1 in 10,000 odds, just like the odds of them picking, say, 1-2-3-4 or 6-9-6-9.

"The balls do not have a memory."


welcome to my world.

WOnder how many asshats are running out now, playing those exact numbers again

/stupid statistical retards.

My balls have a memory. My ex-wife causes them to jump straight into my throat. Good thing I don't see her or her lawyer too often anymore...

Sounds like deja vu.

Two drawings a day? Shows how desperate people are for cash in PA. Kinda sad, really. All they need are a couple of friendly Native American-run casinos. Then they can watch their tax dollars go to building the infrastructure for the casinos and for GA meetings.

/lottery is crap

"The balls do not have a memory."

Or a conscience.

This is only news to the statistically retarded.

This is only news to the statistically retarded.

Lotteries are an extra tax payment for the stupid.

Monkey-pox.
Disappearing WMDs.
Pi = 2.67 in Nebraska.
3-1-9-9.
3-1-9-9.

That is all I'm allowed to say; you're on your own.

This is only news to the statistically retarded.

Meh. Only a 1 in 10,000 chance of getting the same numbers twice in a row. It was bound to happen sooner or later.

Of course, for anyone who played those specific numbers, it was a 1 in 100,000,000 chance of winning twice in one day. Damn...

the lotteries are fixed.

always have been.

when the jackpot is too high, the find some old person who is not going to live more than a decade, and let them win.

those 'live' lottery ping pong drawings are NOT live. they are filmed a day or two beforehand. then they shoot up the balls for the numbers they have picked.

If 2 events A and B are independent, P(B happens given that A has happened) = P(A) * P(B).


So, if the odds are 1 in 10,000 that a certain sequence of 4 numbers is picked, then the odds that it is picked again after it has already been picked is 1 in (10,000 x 10,000) = 1 in 100,000,000.

/just finished a stats class

Don't worry, it's just the Matrix farking with you.

Anybody notice the incredibly low payoff for the winners? It appears that something like 2% to 4% of the proceeds go back to the players. Just how stupid are the people in PA ?

The odds of any four numbers being picked in the Big 4 drawing is 1 in 10,000.




Well, no shiat.

0000-9999 = 10000 possibilities. Stupid fark.

No, the odds of any four numbers being picked is 1 / 1, assuming they pick four numbers.

Retardiologist

Those are the odds of obtaining two pre-determined sets of numbers. However in our case, we don't care what the first set of numbers is, only the second set. The second set must match the first set. Therefore it is 1 in 10,000.

And then, the odds that the next four-digit number being picked is that one is 1 / 10000.

The odds of predicting BEFOREHAND that two of the same set of specific numbers would be picked is 1:100,000,000. The odds of predicting BEFOREHAND that ANY two sets of numbers would match on the same day is 1:10,000 since the first number is not predicted, it just happens. The only odds, then, are whether the second number matches, which is the same 1:10,000.

What frostalicious said...

TheApocalypse

Wrong. The odds of that exact number coming up twice today are 1 in 100 million. The odds of any number coming up twice are 1 in 10,000. And the second is what happened...

Yeh, that PA lottery is known for being spot on honest too...(see Lucky Numbers)

Did you know that 86.4% of statistics are made up on the spot?

Retardiologist: ...1 in 100,000,000.

/just finished a stats class


I wouldn't be looking forward to your final grade if I were you.

What they said. The odds of any 4 numbers being picked twice is 1 in 10,000.

The fallacy is in applying the 1 in 10,000 number to the _first_ draw. The first draw can be anything, giving odds of 100%. Then the _second_ draw has to match, which is 1 in 10,000. 1 in 10,000 * 1 in 1 = 1 in 10,000.

This is retarded only to the newly statistical.

Liberty Bell...Liberty Bell...

hm, how often is it that y'all actually get to argue about exactly how something is?

/statistically rhetorical

DFlor:

I'd say 86.5%!
(counting our two posts)

Okay, instead of assuming 10,000 combinations, lets assume the lottery draws one of three numbers. The possible outcomes of two drawings are:
1 1 2 1 3 1
1 2 2 2 3 2
1 3 2 3 3 3

The odds that the first and second number will be the same are 3/9, or 1/3 (that is, 1 1, 2 2, or 3 3). Where people are coming up with the 1 in 100 million stat is in choosing a specific number. The equivalent here: the odds that both numbers will be 1 are 1/9.

Damn. Sorry about the spacing. You ge tthe idea. If you don't, you wouldn't understand the explanation anyway.

10,000:1 that this can happen.
100,000,000:1 that you actually have two winning lotto tickets with this number, assuming you played both lottos.

I blame the Amish for the statistical retardation. But if the computer random generates these numbers, I wager it was Commador 64.

This is statistically retarded only to the news.

That would be 100,000,000 before the numbers were picked, I should say.

Actually, the odds are just 1 in 9,999. I'm sure they have zero balls in the hopper too, but come on, what are the odds of it coming up '0000'? Even if it did happen, they'd probably just do it over because it would look too fishy.

3 and 4 digit lotteries are a complete rip off. For 1/10000 odds you get paid something like 4 grand, if you're lucky... and then they tax you on top of that.

Find a bookie that runs state numbers. Get real odds.