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(The Daily Beast)   Apparently, some tweedy prof somewhere thinks the Dems can hold the House in November with - get this - Obama's help   (thedailybeast.com) divider line 31
    More: Interesting  
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760 clicks; posted to Politics » on 12 Sep 2010 at 3:59 PM (3 years ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2010-09-12 10:02:16 AM
how can history's greatest monster help anyone?
 
2010-09-12 12:27:19 PM
Oh, imagine the conspiracy theories if that actually happens.
 
2010-09-12 12:29:43 PM
Is Obama rigging voting machines for Diebold? Oh wait, that's the GOP.
 
2010-09-12 01:37:52 PM
Despite the CW of the MSM, things don't look near as bad for the Dems as they would have us believe. We still have a pretty large GOTV apparatus, and although some of the wingnuts are energized, most people simply aren't that excited about the election.
 
2010-09-12 02:51:20 PM
Dinki: Despite the CW of the MSM, things don't look near as bad for the Dems as they would have us believe. We still have a pretty large GOTV apparatus, and although some of the wingnuts are energized, most people simply aren't that excited about the election.

Doesn't matter. Anything short of insignificant gains by the GOP means that the narrative is going to be that Obama is done and that the Democrats are out of touch with America. The media has decided on the 2010 election story line and everything is going to be explained through that narrative.
 
2010-09-12 04:01:16 PM
Needs more Obvious tag.
 
2010-09-12 04:17:28 PM
Dinki: Despite the CW of the MSM, things don't look near as bad for the Dems as they would have us believe.

Nobody tunes in to watch things stay the same.
 
2010-09-12 04:30:34 PM
FlashHarry: how can history's greatest monster help anyone?

Well, cthulu DID split the right-wing vote in '08...

Also: political predictions on Fark, let's look at the track record.

i301.photobucket.com

/statisticals.
 
2010-09-12 04:39:46 PM
It's true.

The vast majority just don't give a frak about midterms.

The only reason I pay attention to politics at all is eventually vaseline makes your skin peel off if you don't let it air out once in a while.
 
2010-09-12 04:56:45 PM
House of Tards:
Doesn't matter. Anything short of insignificant gains by the GOP means that the narrative is going to be that Obama is done and that the Democrats are out of touch with America.


I think you are wrong, but only just. This is the narrative PRE elections, and they are running with it regardless of logic and reality, but there is a nice fat story waiting in the press mind if the republicans fail to take either house which is 'omfg republicans went wingnut and will be out of power for 50 year (or until the next election when we will come up with a new narrative to get the bums excited)'

Remember, the narrative right now is 'Republicans take over congress'. That is a simple story and only simple stories suit. 'Republicans reduce Dem majority' is barely a story at all let alone a simple one.
 
2010-09-12 05:07:57 PM
If Democrats had some balls they could keep the House.

/but they don't
 
2010-09-12 05:18:35 PM
bravian: If Democrats had some balls good ideas, a connection to the American people, intelligence, an actual leader, a lack of ethics charges, they could keep the House.

FTFY
 
2010-09-12 05:33:49 PM
Bocanegra: bravian: If Democrats had good ideas, a connection to the American people, intelligence, an actual leader, a lack of ethics charges, they could keep the House.

FTFY


And if the GOP had any of those things they wouldn't have lost it.
 
2010-09-12 05:43:13 PM
FlashHarry: how can history's greatest monster help anyone?

Exactly. That's why the Republican party has got to go. Let's put a stake through that monster, chop off its head, and burn the parts. Kill the Republican Party if you want to save America.
 
2010-09-12 05:47:21 PM
Without Fail: Bocanegra: bravian: If Democrats had good ideas, a connection to the American people, intelligence, an actual leader, a lack of ethics charges, they could keep the House.

FTFY

And if the GOP had any of those things they wouldn't have lost it.


To be fair, when the Republicans were running the house, there were rarely any ethics charges. Unless the ethics violation made huge news and there was no way to avoid it, Republicans never brought Republicans up on ethics charges. The fact them Democrats do that to other Democrats is somehow seen as bad. And the mere fact that this spin works at all is all the evidence needed that there really is no liberal media. Sure, there are a few liberal reporters, but the media, itself, is firmly in the pocket of the right wing.*


* To be fair, in the case of FOX, the right wing is in FOX's pocket.
 
2010-09-12 06:11:28 PM
DeaH: Sure, there are a few liberal reporters, but the media, itself, is firmly in the pocket of the right wing

[Fail]
 
2010-09-12 06:12:41 PM
bravian: If Democrats had some balls they could keep the House.

/but they don't


Balls? You mean, like, the balls to crash through republican stonewalling? The balls to fight when your opposition is filled with glee over your impending doom? That kind of balls?

/fired up democrat
 
2010-09-12 06:13:20 PM
bamstutz.files.wordpress.com
Tweedy?
 
2010-09-12 06:13:56 PM
When the president visits a toss-up race in a congressional district, his candidate goes on to win the election about 50 percent of the time; when the president sits out a toss-up race, his party's candidate wins just 35 percent of the time.

I question the interpretative ability of anyone with this poor an understanding of what "toss-up" means. Either that or he's leaving out a significant chunk of explanation, which makes him a shiatty reporter in another way.
 
2010-09-12 06:14:36 PM
Bocanegra: DeaH: Sure, there are a few liberal reporters, but the media, itself, is firmly in the pocket of the right wing

[Fail]


Wow, and you guys say dems are out of touch.

Reality will still be here when/if you decide to come back, Bocanumbnuts.
 
2010-09-12 06:44:27 PM
Dinki: Despite the CW of the MSM, things don't look near as bad for the Dems as they would have us believe. We still have a pretty large GOTV apparatus, and although some of the wingnuts are energized, most people simply aren't that excited about the election.

Pretty similar to 2008 in other words:

The story was that Hillary still had a shot well into May, when in reality she was done by March.

The general was a 'Pretty Close Race' up until You-Know-Who was declared the winner as soon as the California polls closed, with what turned out to the largest victory for a non-incumbent in
30 years.
 
2010-09-12 07:10:05 PM
MFAWG: Dinki: Despite the CW of the MSM, things don't look near as bad for the Dems as they would have us believe. We still have a pretty large GOTV apparatus, and although some of the wingnuts are energized, most people simply aren't that excited about the election.

Pretty similar to 2008 in other words:

The story was that Hillary still had a shot well into May, when in reality she was done by March.

The general was a 'Pretty Close Race' up until You-Know-Who was declared the winner as soon as the California polls closed, with what turned out to the largest victory for a non-incumbent in
30 years.


This is a very interesting observation and one that someone needs to document. As I recall, everyone was still convinced that the McCain/Obama race was still neck and neck right through election day when the reality was that an overwhelming amount of people were planning to vote for Obama.

Now we all know that the media isn't really interested in claiming a victor before the race is over but how could they have been that far off? About the only person who was calling the election for Obama was Nate Silver, even though there may have been a few others that I missed.

It seems awfully early for the Republicans to be picking out the color of the drapes in their new offices, knowing that one Mark Foley could tank the day for them.

www.bradblog.com
 
2010-09-12 07:15:31 PM
FlashHarry: how can history's greatest monster help anyone?

Dude, you're not even trying!
 
2010-09-12 07:27:04 PM
Yaxe: FlashHarry: how can history's greatest monster help anyone?

Dude, you're not even trying!


sarcasm meter broken?
 
2010-09-12 11:02:06 PM
FlashHarry: Yaxe: FlashHarry: how can history's greatest monster help anyone?

Dude, you're not even trying!

sarcasm meter broken?


No...everyone knows Jimmy Carter is history's greatest monster.
 
2010-09-12 11:12:15 PM
Apparently, some fat guy from Vegas thinks the Dems can hold the House in November with - get this - some frickin BALLS!!!
 
2010-09-12 11:22:47 PM
I always thought the running idea was that the Democrats would lose any semblance of a super-majority, but would still have a slight majority in both houses. The Republicans would have to do something crazy like win every single somewhat even district/state in order to actually gain a majority.
 
2010-09-12 11:35:37 PM
Non-evil Monkey: I always thought the running idea was that the Democrats would lose any semblance of a super-majority, but would still have a slight majority in both houses. The Republicans would have to do something crazy like win every single somewhat even district/state in order to actually gain a majority.

Latest models from Nate Silver show a ~66% chance that the GOP will win enough seats to take the House while the Dems have around a 75% chance of holding the Senate.

While I'm not liking the looks of things, it's still far too early to throw in the towel. If anything, this makes me more determined to get to the damned polls come November and I'm hoping people look at the numbers and turn out as well. "House Majority Leader Boehner" -- that phrase should be enough to drive every liberal in the country out to vote.
 
2010-09-13 12:40:46 AM
horse-pheathers: Non-evil Monkey: I always thought the running idea was that the Democrats would lose any semblance of a super-majority, but would still have a slight majority in both houses. The Republicans would have to do something crazy like win every single somewhat even district/state in order to actually gain a majority.

Latest models from Nate Silver show a ~66% chance that the GOP will win enough seats to take the House while the Dems have around a 75% chance of holding the Senate.

While I'm not liking the looks of things, it's still far too early to throw in the towel. If anything, this makes me more determined to get to the damned polls come November and I'm hoping people look at the numbers and turn out as well. "House Majority Leader Boehner" -- that phrase should be enough to drive every liberal in the country out to vote.


I'll be voting but my Congressional District, NY-21 is safe Democratic and both Senate seats (one is a regular election and the other a special election) are also safe Democratic. I do hope lots of liberals do turn out in NY-20 and NY-23 even though Nate Silver's models have 71.8% and 69.5% chances of Democratic wins in those districts despite the huge Republican registration advantage. I also want liberals to turn out in NY-24.

Also, didn't Nate Silver say there was quite a bit of uncertainty due to a variety of factors such as the lack of reliable non-partisan polling in many Congressional districts?
 
2010-09-13 02:01:54 AM
47 is the new 42: Also, didn't Nate Silver say there was quite a bit of uncertainty due to a variety of factors such as the lack of reliable non-partisan polling in many Congressional districts?

Yes -- there's an awful lot of wiggle room in the numbers, as I recall. No reason to give up the ship yet. ;)
 
2010-09-13 02:56:31 AM
Bocanegra: DeaH: Sure, there are a few liberal reporters, but the media, itself, is firmly in the pocket of the right wing

[Fail]


Wow, you sure showed me. Epic zinger, dude.
 
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