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(Wimp)   Arthur C. Clarke predicting the future in 1964   (wimp.com) divider line 114
    More: Cool, Arthur C. Clarke  
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15105 clicks; posted to Video » on 05 Sep 2010 at 3:32 PM (4 years ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2010-09-05 01:04:52 PM  
Clarke published a book of these kinds of predictions, and it is fun to see where he was dead-on and where he got side-tracked. One of the things that absolutely fascinated him was the invention of the hovercraft, and he predicted in this book that wheeled vehicles would be eclipsed and that highways would cease to need to be maintained, because hovercraft would not wear them down like wheeled vehicular traffic.

Of course, he had made some assumptions about the efficient propulsion of those hovercraft that didn't pan out.

Still, brilliant guy, more right than wrong. And until he died, I had no idea he was gay. No, really. Never thought about it, never had a reason to.
 
2010-09-05 02:11:08 PM  
Any Pie Left: Still, brilliant guy, more right than wrong. And until he died, I had no idea he was gay. No, really. Never thought about it, never had a reason to.

He was gay? Wow, now I'll have to re-evaluate everything he ever wrote.

/He didn't reckon on the hovercraft having eels.
 
2010-09-05 03:05:45 PM  
Look at where the need will arise and you may be able to see the future from there.
 
2010-09-05 03:41:12 PM  
Maybe they should name something after him. Maybe something having to do with space and where satellites orbit.

Maybe we could call it the Arthur C. Clarke Band of Orbiting Things.


too long?
 
2010-09-05 03:44:55 PM  
Any Pie Left: And until he died, I had no idea he was gay.

And that was the real gay, too, before traps on the internet made us quasi-gay.
 
2010-09-05 03:47:01 PM  
If we could only keep the good side of gay like A.C's visions and get rid of the pedophilic side of Gay - the world woud be an awesome place to be.
 
2010-09-05 03:48:48 PM  
Wow, he was dead on the money!


...now I'm trying to remember the last Arthur C. Clark book I've read.
 
2010-09-05 03:49:19 PM  
Huh. So that's what a Somerset accent sounded like at the beginning of the century.

Giltric
Maybe they should name something after him.

Arthur C. Clarke Memorial Space Elevator. We just need to stop faffing around and actually build the damn thing.
 
2010-09-05 03:50:28 PM  
Amazing how right he was about the net, and how wrong he was about cities and urban living. Also sad that he didn't predict color.
 
2010-09-05 03:51:05 PM  
Bondith: Huh. So that's what a Somerset accent sounded like at the beginning of the century.

Giltric
Maybe they should name something after him.

Arthur C. Clarke Memorial Space Elevator. We just need to stop faffing around and actually build the damn thing.


we must take our gay agenda into spaaaaaace
 
2010-09-05 03:51:48 PM  
Still waiting for my flying car...

/seriously...amazing spot on prediction of communication
//Intarwebz ftw.
 
2010-09-05 03:57:05 PM  
"City of the future" was a big topic at this time, think Disney...

Cities changed a lot after WWII and at the time there was no real reason why people thought that they would not continue to change at the pace they had.

Thank you, Sir Arthur Charles Clarke for making a positive contribution to everyone who lives in this world.
 
2010-09-05 04:02:21 PM  
RoyBatty
Amazing how right he was about the net, and how wrong he was about cities and urban living.

Give it time. We've got telecommuting, and there's a constant flow of people to the suburbs and away from centralised cores. Some of his stories predicted individuals or family units living essentially like wired-up hermits, with no close physical neighbours but the entire world available by telepresence.

However, you're right in that he did miss the boat for things like resource distribution and scientific research. If you want to go shopping, you need to go to where the shops are, and centralised distribution centres are much more cost effective than tiny little shoplets spread out willy-nilly as in the cyberhermit model. Likewise, if you want to get your electrogadget fixed, you need physically transport the electrogadget to the electrogadget-fixing dude. Most shockingly for a guy with a hard science background is the research aspect. The days of the gentleman-of-leisure science dabbler were long over by Clarke's time, and the German model of dedicated research groups were well established. Scientific progress needs a critical mass of brains in proximity to bounce ideas off each other, and the resources and equipment tend to be expensive to the point that providing everything with their own glovebox and NMR is prohibitive. It's better to pool resources in institutions and have everyone work in the same building. The Web and the age of digital communications, however, do make it much easier to search and share ideas with people in other institutions, which was really his main point.

I seem to have rambled. tl;dr version: Yeah, what you said.
 
2010-09-05 04:05:16 PM  
WM.300: If we could only keep the good side of gay like A.C's visions and get rid of the pedophilic side of Gay - the world woud be an awesome place to be.

Shouldn't we also get rid of the pedophilic side of Straight too? No need to single out the gays, plenty of straight people like to molest children.
 
2010-09-05 04:06:46 PM  
WM.300: If we could only keep the good side of gay like A.C's visions and get rid of the pedophilic side of Gay - the world woud be an awesome place to be.

What is this I don't even
 
2010-09-05 04:07:57 PM  
Arthur Jumbles: WM.300: If we could only keep the good side of gay like A.C's visions and get rid of the pedophilic side of Gay - the world woud be an awesome place to be.

Shouldn't we also get rid of the pedophilic side of Straight too? No need to single out the gays, plenty of straight people like to molest children.


Excuse me, are you trying to challenge my confirmation bias?
 
2010-09-05 04:13:03 PM  
Mental Note: Do not go to New Zealand for brain surgery
 
2010-09-05 04:21:36 PM  
What a horrible prison he envisioned, where people would no longer structure urban spaces for meeting each other, and travel would be considered purely luxury.
 
2010-09-05 04:25:14 PM  
Arthur Jumbles: No need to single out the gays, plenty of straight people like to molest children.

Why you looking at me?
 
2010-09-05 04:31:22 PM  
Bondith: However, you're right in that he did miss the boat for things like resource distribution and scientific research....

I think it's more than that. I think that people *like* social activities conducted in cities as witnessed by Starbuck's success, and the (pretty much) success of light rail and the increasing interesting in finding walkable cities.

That and the population explosion, and cities are only going to get larger, and new ones grow out of suburbia.

Where I "live", they predict that by 2050 it will be one big urban/suburban core from Prescott Arizona to Mexico, and that's a humongous city built in the middle of farking hell.

It seems a stretch to me to predict that corridor will stretch from Phoenix/Surprise/Anthem all the way to Prescott, but Phoenix/Tucson is guaranteed, and just that alone is a 100 mile long "city".

When Phoenix, Tucson merge
Catherine Reagor
The Arizona Republic
Apr. 9, 2006 12:00 AM
Phoenix and Tucson are heading for a collision.

Arizona's two largest metropolitan areas are on course to meet and merge within a decade, engulfing several small towns along the way.

The downtowns of the two major cities are separated by 120 miles. But their suburbs reach much farther along Interstate 10. Planned developments stretch 60 miles south of metropolitan Phoenix, deep into Pinal County. In Tucson, new projects are heading 40 miles north into Pinal, the only county that separates the two regions. That leaves only a 20-mile gap between the two cities' growth.

Urban researchers are calling the corridor a megapolitan, or "super-sized" metropolitan area, and see it spanning from Prescott in the north all the way south to Sierra Vista and the Mexico border. The Phoenix-Tucson stretch is the epicenter.


That said, I know Clarke "invented" the geosynchronous satellite, but I think the most amazing prediction he made in that video was of telerobotic surgery.
 
2010-09-05 04:32:09 PM  
Sounds pretty accurate to me. I work from my home, conduct all my business meetings by phone, webex or Skype, and venture into NYC only for culture and nosh.

Bright bloke, Clarke.

Now how about that Space Elevator - I'm getting too old for high G.
 
2010-09-05 04:32:49 PM  
RoyBatty: The downtowns of the two major cities are separated by 120 miles

On the other hand, the notion that Phoenix is a major city makes me want to choke to death on my own vomit.
 
2010-09-05 04:33:55 PM  
RoyBatty: That said, I know Clarke "invented" the geosynchronous satellite, but I think the most amazing prediction he made in that video was of telerobotic surgery.

I was surprised he didn't foresee the rise of teledildonics, what with being gay and all. Gay scientists love that shiat.
 
2010-09-05 04:38:11 PM  
Sure he predicted the rise of the internet and cellphones. But what he did not expect was the convergence of these two in TFLN. If he had, I'm sure he would have lobbied for nuclear war.
 
2010-09-05 04:38:19 PM  
Paleorific: "City of the future" was a big topic at this time, think Disney...

I always wished Disney had been able to see the original plan for EPCOT realized.

Link (new window)
 
2010-09-05 04:39:37 PM  
As I recall his first prediction of communications satellite included pornography. That man was way, way, way ahead of his time.
 
2010-09-05 04:42:12 PM  
Does it count that I wrote my dissertation on "emerging data mining technology and widespread Internet usage leading to invasions of privacy" back in 1999?
 
2010-09-05 04:44:29 PM  
buckler: Paleorific: "City of the future" was a big topic at this time, think Disney...

I always wished Disney had been able to see the original plan for EPCOT realized.

Link (new window)


Yes, I thought that was interesting too. Instead we have Ave Maria http://www.avemaria.com, the Domino's Pizza Catholic Town, which is interesting only for the burbclave aspects.
 
2010-09-05 04:45:18 PM  
What a horrible prison he envisioned, where people would no longer structure urban spaces for meeting each other, and travel would be considered purely luxury.

lol
 
2010-09-05 04:53:26 PM  
oldebayer: Any Pie Left: Still, brilliant guy, more right than wrong. And until he died, I had no idea he was gay. No, really. Never thought about it, never had a reason to.

He was gay? Wow, now I'll have to re-evaluate everything he ever wrote.

/He didn't reckon on the hovercraft having eels.


Ummm...kinda got bad news for you. Better throw out your computer because the father of modern computer science was teh ghey too.

/I know you're just joking
//Fun to play along and push the librul ghey agenda
 
2010-09-05 04:54:45 PM  
buckler: Paleorific: "City of the future" was a big topic at this time, think Disney...

I always wished Disney had been able to see the original plan for EPCOT realized.

Link (new window)


By plan I think you mean scam used to convince the state of Florida to give them a shiatload of land for next to nothing and laws to keep the government out of their business to a greater extent than the average corporation.
 
2010-09-05 05:01:59 PM  
All seemed fairly straighforward. Personal communication devices using radio waves, ability to send data worldwide fairly fast, some good robotics.

sensible chap
 
2010-09-05 05:08:04 PM  
George Washington and Abe Lincoln were gay too. In fact, every notable person throughout history was corksoakers.
 
2010-09-05 05:11:30 PM  
I've been wondering something on this front. Now that we have great telecommunications, how long will it be before congressmen are no longer clustered in a single city. They should be in their districts, truly representing their people by living among them. They can conduct their business by the various communication methods available.

Also, it would be harder for lobbyists and non-constituent political groups to control congress-critters since they are not all in the same place.

/Deconcentrate the power (I know it's not a word, I'm making it one)
//Hates the fact that the areas around Washington D.C. have become the richest in the country. This is not a good sign.
 
2010-09-05 05:15:31 PM  
Actually I know they will never do that...unfortunately.
 
2010-09-05 05:15:37 PM  
It also bears mentioning that the reason a lot of the early-20th-century predictions for the end of the century are so wildly off by today (no flying cars, cities not THAT different, etc) is that the world was going through an absolutely ridiculous explosion of technology and industry from the end of the 19th century, with the Industrial Revolution, straight through to the early/mid 60s. Two World Wars helped a lot, too. The moon landing is pretty much the tail end, the last bits of the burst easing off. Since then, we've had some major advances in the personal computer, the internet, and cell phones, but the general advance of technology has been replaced with greater refining of existing technology instead.

We went from horses to cars to jets in the space of 60 years. And then to rockets to the moon in another 10. And since then, we've stopped going to the moon, made slight faster jets, and made them more fuel-efficient.


In essence, the greatest prophet of the times wasn't the likes of Clarke, it was Aldous Huxley.
 
2010-09-05 05:16:26 PM  
RoyBatty
I think it's more than that. I think that people *like* social activities conducted in cities as witnessed by Starbuck's success, and the (pretty much) success of light rail and the increasing interesting in finding walkable cities.

Hmmm, good call. Humans are social social animals. I do enjoy my solitude, but I also like to get together with friends and roll dice, or go warble showtunes at strangers.

Also, porn may be nice, but it doesn't compare to a real, live, squeezably soft woman.
 
2010-09-05 05:18:36 PM  
WM.300: If we could only keep the good side of gay like A.C's visions and get rid of the pedophilic side of Gay - the world woud be an awesome place to be.



That don't make no sense!!
 
2010-09-05 05:22:26 PM  
I'm amazed that people even give a damn that he was gay.
 
2010-09-05 05:28:34 PM  
Another computer pioneer who isn't gay, but who is transgendered is the awesome Lynn Conway, who developed microelectronic chip designs here's her story ... http://ai.eecs.umich.edu/people/conway/LynnsStory.html
 
2010-09-05 05:35:14 PM  
Boobiesontheside: George Washington and Abe Lincoln were gay too. In fact, every notable person throughout history was corksoakers.

According to my father, George Washington wasn't gay, but a cross dresser. He did love the ladies, however. In fact, he died of pneumonia he caught sneaking out of a woman's bedroom when her husband came home on a rainy night. Abe Lincoln was a gay, and liked to sleep in the barracks with the soldiers during the Civil War. Also, unrelated how it may be, Bugs Bunny was an alcoholic. My mother is convinced that Einstein's wife is who came up all his ideas and that the neighbors are spying on her. Dinner time arguments growing up were never quiet, but always interesting.
 
2010-09-05 05:39:49 PM  
PsychoLaurie: Another computer pioneer who isn't gay, but who is transgendered

Ahhh, yeah, about that. . . Transgendered totally counts as gay.
 
2010-09-05 05:58:49 PM  
Tillmaster: Now how about that Space Elevator

The Escalator to Nowhere showed them the errors of that plan.

img441.imageshack.us

If only NASA would abandon the mission to build a popsicle stick skyscraper....
 
2010-09-05 06:01:23 PM  
PartTimeBuddha: Bondith: Huh. So that's what a Somerset accent sounded like at the beginning of the century.

Giltric
Maybe they should name something after him.

Arthur C. Clarke Memorial Space Elevator. We just need to stop faffing around and actually build the damn thing.

we must take our gay agenda into spaaaaaace


In space, no one can hear how faaaaaabulous you are
 
2010-09-05 06:01:49 PM  
DrMcNinja: Boobiesontheside: George Washington and Abe Lincoln were gay too. In fact, every notable person throughout history was corksoakers.

According to my father, George Washington wasn't gay, but a cross dresser. He did love the ladies, however. In fact, he died of pneumonia he caught sneaking out of a woman's bedroom when her husband came home on a rainy night. Abe Lincoln was a gay, and liked to sleep in the barracks with the soldiers during the Civil War. Also, unrelated how it may be, Bugs Bunny was an alcoholic. My mother is convinced that Einstein's wife is who came up all his ideas and that the neighbors are spying on her. Dinner time arguments growing up were never quiet, but always interesting.


Hold on.. is Abe Lincoln seriously gay? Sleeping in barracks with soldiers isn't nearly enough to convince me of gayness.
 
2010-09-05 06:04:13 PM  
RoyBatty: Amazing how right he was about the net, and how wrong he was about cities and urban living. Also sad that he didn't predict color.

Only crazy artists predicted color.
 
2010-09-05 06:24:50 PM  
Any Pie Left: WM.300: If we could only keep the good side of gay like A.C's visions and get rid of the pedophilic side of Gay - the world woud be an awesome place to be.

Boobiesontheside: George Washington and Abe Lincoln were gay too. In fact, every notable person throughout history was corksoakers.

Still, brilliant guy, more right than wrong. And until he died, I had no idea he was gay. No, really. Never thought about it, never had a reason to.



Is there any reason you guys had to take a thread about my favourite author and make it into... whatever the fark this is?

Please stop.

I won't even ask you to DIAF or anything. Just quit it with subjugating threads. It's a shame we couldn't have discussed more of his stories instead.

/I heart the 2001 series
 
2010-09-05 06:30:20 PM  
Bah, It'll never happen
 
2010-09-05 06:33:53 PM  
radinator: I've been wondering something on this front. Now that we have great telecommunications, how long will it be before congressmen are no longer clustered in a single city. They should be in their districts, truly representing their people by living among them. They can conduct their business by the various communication methods available.

Also, it would be harder for lobbyists and non-constituent political groups to control congress-critters since they are not all in the same place.

/Deconcentrate the power (I know it's not a word, I'm making it one)
//Hates the fact that the areas around Washington D.C. have become the richest in the country. This is not a good sign.


That's actually an interesting idea, but the vast majority of the Executive branch, especially the military will still probably be in DC. I don't know how much you can decentralize a bureaucracy before it becomes useless.
 
2010-09-05 06:35:28 PM  
I was 7 inn 1964.
when I was 12, I told my friends we would grow up in a world where you could see boobies on TV.
They laughed at me..
When I elisted as we were pulling out of 'Nam, mt dada asked if I was sure it was good timing. I sais, sure it is. We can't get involved in another illegal war until my 4 years are up.
 
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