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(CNN)   South Korea: It... Is... ON   (edition.cnn.com ) divider line
    More: Scary  
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51961 clicks; posted to Main » on 24 May 2010 at 3:03 AM (6 years ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2010-05-24 08:40:46 AM  

TigerStar: firefly212: TigerStar: lisarenee3505: China is about a half-step away from pulling their support from NK to begin with. They are tired of Kim Jong Ill's bullshiat and posturing, and the damage it does to their other international relations. China has done what many said was impossible, they have made a capitalist economy actually work withing the construct of a communist government, and they aren't about the jeapordize their business relations over shiatty little NK, which is nothing but a drain on their resources and money. If SK decides to bring this thing to a head, we'll see China quietly back away and leave NK to it's fate. NK has no real military to speak of because the vast majority of their "soldiers" are conscripts who would honestly rather not live under the insane dictatorship of Kim. They will end up doing the same thing that the majority of the Iraqi military did, throw down their weapons and surrender the first chance they get. Their military technology is about 20 years behind SK, and while they might get in a few lucky strikes, SK and it's allies would roll over them in a matter of days.

Critically Evaluating the Logic and Validity of Information
http://academic.cuesta.edu/acasupp/as/403.htm

There's a lot of blah blah blah in there, but the long and short of it is that the US is far and away China's largest trade partner, and they aren't going to endanger that relationship on behalf of DPRK.

How do you know what the USA government's response will be? Can you read tea leaves?


I think the statement by the US (Gibbs/WH overnight) was pretty unambiguous.
 
2010-05-24 08:40:51 AM  
Why is Fartbama so willing to put our troops lives at risk??!!
 
2010-05-24 08:42:23 AM  

God's Hubris: Why is Fartbama so willing to put our troops lives at risk??!!


What troops?

Thanks to Bush, our military is currently spread so thin, you could read a newspaper through it.
 
2010-05-24 08:42:28 AM  
Do the north chinks have any oil?
 
2010-05-24 08:42:46 AM  

nmemkha: dittybopper: nmemkha: China may say to Kim: "Fark you, you're on your own."

Given the global recession and the fact they are "The Factory of the World", they may decide that NK is a liability they no longer need.

China *CAN'T* do that. They border on NK. If there is one thing the government of the PRC does *NOT* want, it's instability, and they'll get that in spades if they just try to wash their hands of the situation.

No, the PRC is inextricably interwound with North Korea economically, politically, and geographically. They can't just walk away, and I think Kim Jong Il understands this and exploits it on occasion. The PRC leadership recognizes it also.

You have good point, but I still think that China may decide to cut its losses. China does not want a nuclear armed PRC anymore than the rest of us. China may decide that it will deal the problem itself.

In any case, it will be interesting to see how this plays out.


I'm of half a mind that the PRC uses the DPRK for it's own nefarious purposes as a distraction. Kind of like how you see the magician waving his left hand with a flourish to distract from what the right hand is doing.

I'm not sure this is 100% the case, but by the same token I can see it being occasionally useful to the PRC.
 
2010-05-24 08:54:06 AM  

fragMasterFlash: Never go up against a Korean when kimchee is on the line.


i48.tinypic.com

Hello. My name is Lee Park Won. You fermented my cabbage. Prepare to dine.
 
2010-05-24 09:00:22 AM  
Ghastly
I hope the people of Seoul will have enough time to spell out GOODBYE with rocks before they get shelled.

This is why you're a favorite. That, and your legs.
 
2010-05-24 09:01:05 AM  

nmemkha: Anodos: nmemkha: dittybopper: nmemkha: China may say to Kim: "Fark you, you're on your own."

Given the global recession and the fact they are "The Factory of the World", they may decide that NK is a liability they no longer need.

China *CAN'T* do that. They border on NK. If there is one thing the government of the PRC does *NOT* want, it's instability, and they'll get that in spades if they just try to wash their hands of the situation.

No, the PRC is inextricably interwound with North Korea economically, politically, and geographically. They can't just walk away, and I think Kim Jong Il understands this and exploits it on occasion. The PRC leadership recognizes it also.

You have good point, but I still think that China may decide to cut its losses. China does not want a nuclear armed PRC DPRK anymore than the rest of us. China may decide that it will deal the problem itself.

In any case, it will be interesting to see how this plays out.

/FTFY (and not to be snotty, I just could see people being confused/trollish about the distinction)

You are correct, I meant the DPRK. Thank you for clarifying my post.


Civility? On MY fark?
 
2010-05-24 09:03:04 AM  

dittybopper: fragMasterFlash: Never go up against a Korean when kimchee is on the line.

Hello. My name is Lee Park Won. You fermented my cabbage. Prepare to dine.


Perfection. Poetry.
 
2010-05-24 09:07:15 AM  
Any country that can get 100,000 of its citizens in a stadium waving those synchronized colored cards to make awesome pictures is to be feared!!
 
2010-05-24 09:07:16 AM  
WarmongObama!

/HAHAH!
//Damned if he does, damned if he doesn't
///Just like the last dude!
////This presidentin is HARD!!!!..

/../../..HAHAHA!
 
2010-05-24 09:08:30 AM  

ecmoRandomNumbers: South Korea is probably the most technologically-advanced nation on Earth right now -- like we Americans thought the Japanese to be in the 80s.


Yes, and look where Japan is now. We Americans thought the Prussian education system was da bomb in the 19th century - look where it took Germany. I think this is one of the weird side-effects of how we've brainwashed ourselves with the Bible over the years. "A prophet is not without honor, except in his hometown..." has wormed its way into our subconscious, so that we don't think any home-brewed way of doing things is best for us. There's always some "better system" out there that "they" say we'd be better off emulating. After all "they" ought to know.
 
2010-05-24 09:10:05 AM  
I for one, am not worried about a war breaking out between the two.. if they were going to goto war with eachother it would have happened already.

Also, they'd goto war over StarCraft before this bs.
 
2010-05-24 09:13:50 AM  

firefly212: There's a lot of blah blah blah in there, but the long and short of it is that the US is far and away China's largest trade partner, and they aren't going to endanger that relationship on behalf of DPRK.


This this this
 
2010-05-24 09:15:05 AM  

Oznog: there was a boat in the water making a noise


That made me chortle, sir.

I am following closely in intense anticipation of the awesome hovercraft battles.

www.links999.net
 
2010-05-24 09:15:29 AM  

Super_pope: dittybopper: fragMasterFlash: Never go up against a Korean when kimchee is on the line.

Hello. My name is Lee Park Won. You fermented my cabbage. Prepare to dine.

Perfection. Poetry.


I was gonna go with a riff about building up an immunity to kimchi, but this just seemed to be better.
 
2010-05-24 09:16:12 AM  

nmemkha: God's Hubris: Why is Fartbama so willing to put our troops lives at risk??!!

What troops?

Thanks to Bush, our military is currently spread so thin, you could read a newspaper through it.



Um, hello? Bush hasn't been running the country for 2 years.
 
2010-05-24 09:16:30 AM  
Oh, yeah....

gizmodo.com
 
2010-05-24 09:18:19 AM  

God's Hubris: nmemkha: God's Hubris: Why is Fartbama so willing to put our troops lives at risk??!!

What troops?

Thanks to Bush, our military is currently spread so thin, you could read a newspaper through it.


Um, hello? Bush hasn't been running the country for 2 years.


Get a room you two...

img.alibaba.com
 
2010-05-24 09:18:57 AM  

Big Al: I'm so glad America concentrated on the real problems of the world, North Korea, China, Pakistan... rather than Iraq and Afghanistan.


Pakistan/Afghanistan are the same issue, except for the fact we can't intervene too substantially in Pakistan.
 
2010-05-24 09:21:11 AM  
Monday morning Generals are even better than Monday morning Quarterbacks.
 
2010-05-24 09:22:33 AM  
static1.videosift.com

Oh, time to keep it real.
 
2010-05-24 09:22:56 AM  
A united Korea is a threat to China and Japan.
/Industry wise
 
2010-05-24 09:23:15 AM  
considering that my gf is in SK on a fulbright, living less than a 100 miles from the border...

/this is relevant to my interests...
//planning on going back to visit next January... wonder if I'll still be going
 
2010-05-24 09:23:19 AM  

Bendal: Didn't Bush pull out one of the US divisions in Korea (but left the heavy equipment there) in order to deploy them to Iraq? Did they ever return to SK or are we under manned over there.


The US can't really be under manned in Korea. The troops which are deployed to the Korean Peninsula have never been expected to effectively respond in the event of a war. The US troops in Korea (much like the US troops in west berlin) are a tripwire force. They exist to ensure that any war in Korea results in US casualties and a guarantee that the US will enter the war.

That is why the US troops are primarily positioned along the border, rather than well behind the DMZ where they would be both more effective in fighting the war, but also where they would be more capable of retreating if the US decided not to get involved.
 
2010-05-24 09:23:35 AM  
Obama is no Liberal that's for sure.
 
2010-05-24 09:24:23 AM  

BadAnalogyGuy: I hope the war finishes quickly and without too much death on either side.


I can tell you now. Neither of your wishes will come true once combat begins. NK has a massive artillery battery aimed at Seoul, it will level the place in hours.
 
2010-05-24 09:24:53 AM  

griffer: Monday morning Generals are even better than Monday morning Quarterbacks.


I'm a Monday morning Specialist/E-4, and I *HATE* Mondays.
 
2010-05-24 09:27:45 AM  
Good thing my Vault-Tec job is secured.

Anyways, this will end probably end in two ways:

1.- NK and SK will enter into one step from an actual war, with skirmishes here and there, but nothing that will escalate in a full blown-out war. The UN will send a resolution that will not really work out, but eventually (with possible pressure from both China) NK will resume sending food. In other words, something kinda like this (new window, it loops).

2.- War.
 
2010-05-24 09:27:48 AM  
Beauxnick
I for one, am not worried about a war breaking out between the two.. if they were going to goto war with eachother it would have happened already.

These are interesting times in the North, with glorious leader not in good health and no clear successor waiting in the wings. There's speculation that the torpedoing of the Cheonan may have proceeded from supporters of a militant successor within the DPRK whose position might be solidified by deteriorating relations with the South.
 
2010-05-24 09:27:49 AM  

dittybopper: griffer: Monday morning Generals are even better than Monday morning Quarterbacks.

I'm a Monday morning Specialist/E-4, and I *HATE* Mondays.


dittybopper: griffer: Monday morning Generals are even better than Monday morning Quarterbacks.

I'm a Monday morning Specialist/E-4, and I *HATE* Mondays.


I'm a Monday Morning CHIEF WARRANT OFFICER II.

2,500 more points and I get my next Recon unlock. Although I may max out Assult first.
 
2010-05-24 09:29:09 AM  

ThematicDevice: Bendal: Didn't Bush pull out one of the US divisions in Korea (but left the heavy equipment there) in order to deploy them to Iraq? Did they ever return to SK or are we under manned over there.

The US can't really be under manned in Korea. The troops which are deployed to the Korean Peninsula have never been expected to effectively respond in the event of a war. The US troops in Korea (much like the US troops in west berlin) are a tripwire force. They exist to ensure that any war in Korea results in US casualties and a guarantee that the US will enter the war.

That is why the US troops are primarily positioned along the border, rather than well behind the DMZ where they would be both more effective in fighting the war, but also where they would be more capable of retreating if the US decided not to get involved.


Actually they moved them to a base 40 miles from the border sometime ago.
 
2010-05-24 09:29:23 AM  

drjekel_mrhyde: A united Korea is a threat to China and Japan.
/Industry wise


Not at all. A unified Korea is a threat to South Korea industry wise. The Republic of Korea realizes just how impossible it will be to undo the damage caused by the North's insane government.

The World Bank estimated it would cost 3 trillion dollars of redevelopment, the United States would struggle to provide that type of financing over several decades. South Korea will have an even harder time to provide for that, even with a generous world community.
 
2010-05-24 09:29:49 AM  
www.nieu.org
 
2010-05-24 09:31:12 AM  

Dano33: Obama is no Liberal that's for sure.


No boom boom soul brother. Too beaucoup!
 
2010-05-24 09:31:48 AM  

mrexcess: Beauxnick
I for one, am not worried about a war breaking out between the two.. if they were going to goto war with eachother it would have happened already.

These are interesting times in the North, with glorious leader not in good health and no clear successor waiting in the wings. There's speculation that the torpedoing of the Cheonan may have proceeded from supporters of a militant successor within the DPRK whose position might be solidified by deteriorating relations with the South.


Interesting theory - hadn't thought of the rogue element possibility within the Nork's government.

Mainly because one tends to think of NK as one big clump of brainwashed humanity - but, of course, there's always someone chomping at the bit to be the bigger piece of cheese in the doghouse in charge of being the big man, with full head honcho rights and a large, tasty burger bun, dripping with seven kinds of sauce and some fresh le
 
2010-05-24 09:32:50 AM  

nmemkha: dittybopper: griffer: Monday morning Generals are even better than Monday morning Quarterbacks.

I'm a Monday morning Specialist/E-4, and I *HATE* Mondays.

I'm a Monday Morning CHIEF WARRANT OFFICER II.

2,500 more points and I get my next Recon unlock. Although I may max out Assult first.



I am Monday morning Dear Leader, so I getting a crick out of this...
 
2010-05-24 09:33:28 AM  

LincolnLogolas: That's the creepy thing about DPRNK... the people actually BELIEVE in Kim Jong Il.


It would be scary if the NK Generals are also brainwashed into the Kim Jong Il cult (Juche?), if there are parallels with the Waffen SS in WWII, this could turn very bad...

/ IIRC, many of the SS fought until the last, never surrendering to the Allies*...
// * even to the British & Americans, where they would be reasonably well treated as prisoners...
 
2010-05-24 09:33:41 AM  
NK vs SV, a short war or the shortest war? go...
thesituationist.files.wordpress.com
 
2010-05-24 09:35:13 AM  

ptelg: BadAnalogyGuy: I hope the war finishes quickly and without too much death on either side.

I can tell you now. Neither of your wishes will come true once combat begins. NK has a massive artillery battery aimed at Seoul, it will level the place in hours.


It doesn't have *THAT* much artillery aimed at Seoul.

They have roughly 13,000 pieces of artillery on the border, but only a fraction of them have the range to hit Seoul, which is over 18 miles away from the closest DPRK soil, and only the DPRK's largest artillery can shoot that far.

Then, of those that *CAN* shoot that far, some, and perhaps most, are going to be aimed at actual military targets instead.

Probably, all told, you've got 2,000 to 3,000 artillery pieces aimed at Seoul at the most. That's not a lot when you consider several factors:

1. The type of long range artillery used has slow reload times, on the order of 1 - 2 rounds every five minutes.

2. The act of firing will give away their positions and make them vulnerable to counterbattery artillery fire and airstrikes.

3. Seoul has a large amount of space underground for the population to seek shelter.

4. Seoul is very large, and thus it will take more ammo than the DPRK has on hand to level it. Maybe they could do it unopposed. Maybe. But that's assuming nobody shoots back.
 
2010-05-24 09:35:16 AM  

hitlersbrain: NK vs SV, a short war or the shortest war? go...


Gah! NK vs SK! Farkin Mondays.
 
2010-05-24 09:40:00 AM  

greentea1985: South Korea wants re-unification, but North Korea wants to stay separate or conquer South Korea.


South Korea politicians want to talk about reunification. But I can't imagine any South Korean politician or business leader in their right mind who would actually want a unified Korea. A freer, nicer, easier to work with North Korea is what they desire. I know I'd prefer them to stay seperate, and be a completely backward neighbor who would be a awesome market for goods, and unable to compete, yet not a part of the nation that would require lots of money on to completely rebuild.
 
2010-05-24 09:40:43 AM  

CygnusDarius: Good thing my Vault-Tec job is secured.


Too bad you're getting the vault with puppets.

ptelg: Actually they moved them to a base 40 miles from the border sometime ago.


My recollection is that puts them around the parallel as Seoul, and still doesn't give them as much maneuverability as they would have liked. Considering the plans seem to be to create a pocket in Seoul until the rest of the US military arrives it will still keep them in the fight.
 
2010-05-24 09:40:45 AM  

ptelg: I can tell you now. Neither of your wishes will come true once combat begins. NK has a massive artillery battery aimed at Seoul, it will level the place in hours.


I can tell you have done intense research on the topic and know exactly what you're talking about.

Worst case estimates put roughly 1000 arty pieces total in the DPRK arsenal with the range to hit Seoul - about 400 of which are actually in range. Worst case estimates (i.e. estimates with absolutely no US reaction whatsoever) are that 31.6% of the city will be damaged within 5 days - at which point the DPRK arty would have been degraded by about 70%.

Best case estimates (ROK Defense Minister, 2004, floor of the ROK Parliament) say that US/ROK response can eliminate all DPRK arty within 11 minutes.

Reality exists somewhere between those two cases. None of it winds up with Seoul "leveled".
 
2010-05-24 09:41:12 AM  

bighasbeen: Weaver95: bighasbeen: Weaver95: oh cool! we're officially doomed now.

Like China wants this on their doorstep. NK ceases to be useful once that happens.

if we were dealing with sane people, then I'd agree with you. But NK isn't run by 'sane people'.

Maybe not "sane", but definitely rational. You don't hold on to power that long without being rational.


The Anglican church, smart, but hardly rational. Held onto power for how many centuries?
 
2010-05-24 09:42:29 AM  

dittybopper: It doesn't have *THAT* much artillery aimed at Seoul.

They have roughly 13,000 pieces of artillery on the border, but only a fraction of them have the range to hit Seoul, which is over 18 miles away from the closest DPRK soil, and only the DPRK's largest artillery can shoot that far.

Then, of those that *CAN* shoot that far, some, and perhaps most, are going to be aimed at actual military targets instead.

Probably, all told, you've got 2,000 to 3,000 artillery pieces aimed at Seoul at the most. That's not a lot when you consider several factors:


You're forgetting the likelihood that North Korea will use chemical weapons.
 
2010-05-24 09:42:37 AM  

dittybopper: But that's assuming nobody shoots back.


Yep. For about 3 weeks.

Good summary.
 
2010-05-24 09:43:33 AM  

vaderstg: Reality exists somewhere between those two cases. None of it winds up with Seoul "leveled".


No boom boom Seoul brother?
 
2010-05-24 09:43:46 AM  

ThematicDevice: You're forgetting the likelihood that North Korea will use chemical weapons.


Which would be interesting, since our standing policy is to use nukes in response to that.
 
2010-05-24 09:44:29 AM  
Not many people know this, but the Old Norse word for 'North' is "mor," and the Old Norse word for 'Korea' is "dor."
 
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