multipurposesolution: Raptop: Can we retire the "electric boogaloo" theme? Pretty please?

The above reflects my sentiments.

Word

I'm willing to bet nothing happens. That I continue to work in a job I don't especially care for, that I am able to save 5% a month, that my wife and baby and I take one modest 5-6 day holiday a year and that I die at my desk sometime around my 60ieth year.

bronyaur1: The only bubble I see is the one in gold. Security prices are up, but HARDLY in speculative bubble territory.

BANKS ARE NOT LENDING. How can low int rates be fueling speculation???

Who are they supposed to lend to? Home owners in distress? Students with credit card debts up to their eyeballs? Small businesses going down, due to collapsed demand? Large businesses, who cut payrolls in order to reduce outgoings?

All this "BANKS ARE NOT LENDING" is a red herring. The real issue is the enormous amounts of debt in society.

bronyaur1: The only bubble I see is the one in gold. Security prices are up, but HARDLY in speculative bubble territory.

BANKS ARE NOT LENDING. How can low int rates be fueling speculation???

low interest rates mean people are seeking places to generate higher returns for their investments. so they pump their cash into the riskier stock market instead of more safe choices like bonds. so you have a higher percentage of cash going into stocks which balloons their prices.

Why (OK, I know why, it's Fark) but why does this have to be a political blame game?

Every POTUS and Congress since at least Nixon has had their hand in part of this - deregulation to Big Government, all of it is factored in and all of it has led to this point in time.

The fact is, we are here now - maybe it is time for the whole economy to pop so we can rebuild it all over again - I know no one wants that, but looking at long term forecasts it is probably going to happen sometime in our lifetime with the next bubble (or what have you) - maybe this is what our generation needs to be known for - after being called slackers and selfish we bight the bullet for the future.

I know there is more to it, I know I don't have all or even half the answers, but I am tired of everything getting pushed back.

Don't worry, the private sector will lift us out of it, just like they're doing with this one.

I hear Howard Blankfein is going to attempt to lift the entire country by its boot straps. For a fee, of course.

DevideByZer0: Don't worry, the private sector will lift us out of it, just like they're doing with this one.

I hear Howard Blankfein is going to attempt to lift the entire country by its boot straps. For a fee, of course.

They would, if only the interfering government would stop pumping money into the economy and let private enterprise work its magic.

Tickle Mittens: Back in my Econ 201 class sometime back in 1994 the professor would name drop and talk about how he'd called up Greenspan to yell at him about his farked up managing of the Fed. Or he'd go off on a tangent about how this massive wave was coming and we were all going to get swept up in it and there was basically nothing we could do.

Goodtimes....



My international political economy prof said pretty much the same thing back in 2007, along with most of the text materials (Susan Strange FTW!). People asked him what they should invest in if everything financial was going to hit the fan. His answer? Buy can openers. You can't eat gold. I suppose you also can't eat ammo, but at least I managed to get a hold of an inexpensive Mosin-Nagant and a few tins of 7.62x54 ammo when things really started to fall apart last fall.

It's an injustice that those people in power weren't lynched by the public with all the people who saw this crisis coming.

Colonel_Debugger: bronyaur1: The only bubble I see is the one in gold. Security prices are up, but HARDLY in speculative bubble territory.

BANKS ARE NOT LENDING. How can low int rates be fueling speculation???

low interest rates mean people are seeking places to generate higher returns for their investments. so they pump their cash into the riskier stock market instead of more safe choices like bonds. so you have a higher percentage of cash going into stocks which balloons their prices.

But bond spreads are tightening too, as investors put more money in corporate debt. What we've seen for the last 6 months or so is not a 'reinflation of a bubble', IMO, but rather a dissipation of the panic that forced asset prices to their lows of March, when everyone just bought treasuries and sold everything else.

We might see asset prices drop a bit, but does anyone really think oil's natural level is below $60 per barrel?

Zeno-25: at least I managed to get a hold of an inexpensive Mosin-Nagant and a few tins of 7.62x54 ammo when things really started to fall apart last fall.

How is that purchase looking for you now? So far its been useless, unless you've taken to holdups to make ends meet during the recession.

Why do libertarians get such a hard-on for negative utopias?

scseth: Why do libertarians get such a hard-on for negative utopias?

Collapse of current order means a new one can be built on its ashes. Made in their image.

/cynic

crazytrpr: poisonedpawn78: crazytrpr:
10% today, 100% tomorrow. Its bad enough if you know the real numbers. If the government is "cooking the books", god help us, how can we make a decision on what to do without making it worse?


High inflation would rescue all of the people with mortgages they cannot afford today. If would also benefit all the companies (GM/FORD/Chrysler)with large numbers of retirees collecting non-inflation adjusted pensions. If would also help out with Social Security.

Its a win-win.

What kills me is the government's unwillingness to break up the big banks, which is what almost killed us late last year. The ONLY reason for them to exist is for the upper echelons at those firms to make huge amounts of money*, risks to the overall economy be damned. They put the politicians in their pocket, and the rest of us can suck it.

*Yeah I know the idea is to work in the interest of the shareholders, but your 100 shares going from 175 to 200 ain't quite the same as taking home a $20 million dollar bonus, especially when the next bank-caused crisis hits and your company has to close its doors.

HempHead: Its a win-win.

Except that it teaches everyone to spend, spend, spend, and not save for a rainy day. Stretch yourself to the maximum on the credit card, if enough of us do it, we will all have to be bailed out. Buy that house, it's ok, in 5 years the government has to inflate the debt away again. Oh, and trade in your 2 year old BMW, you totally deserve a new one.

For savers, however, it's the complete opposite. It's the ultimate destruction of the nestegg you've been working hard to create all your life. The closer you get to retirement, the more risk averse your portfolio should be, hence more cash. And it teaches future generations not to bother saving for retirement, because there's no guarantee your savings will be enough, regardless of quantity.

The other issue, of course, is - as an outside investor, what would be required for you to invest in a country that has just inflated all its debt away? Higher interest rates, of course. And until the US balances its books, it will either need to borrow money from somewhere, or print it, which will lead to even higher interest rate requirements or hyperinflation.

poisonedpawn78: Everything This guy says is true with one exception.

Inflation.

The only way this guys arguement remains true is if the government reported the true rate of inflation and adjusted for it. However its been a long standing truth that the government has many reasons to NOT report the true rate of inflation and provide a faked baked number.

These asset price increases are most likely the result of an underlying inflationary pressure the government will not admit to and not an asset bubble.

THIS

SchlingFocker: ScubaDude1960: At this point, does it really take a rocket scientist to see that we're screwed? We can't keep borrowing/printing our prosperity forever.

There were those of us who said that the housing bubble was unsustainable.

We were ridiculed and dismissed.

I'm not even wasting my breath this time around.

b-b-but that was different. There were Republicans in control of legislative and executive branches, and their policies are only good for the economy and defense while those ebil demoncrats in power now only destroy things. Ayn Rand! Galt's Gulch! Free Markets are never wrong!

/snicker
//too big to fail = too big to exist
///Rand and Marx philosophical devotees are f*cking morons

Just in case a farker's in doubt about the lengths the Fed will go to in order to fudge inflation down.. see "Let them eat Hamburger", in ..

CPI (new window)

Debeo Summa Credo:
How is that purchase looking for you now? So far its been useless, unless you've taken to holdups to make ends meet during the recession.

It will at least allow him to get food when the whole USA shell game collapses on itself. He might be eating his neighbors but at least hes not hungry.

He is obviously racist.

SchlingFocker: ScubaDude1960: At this point, does it really take a rocket scientist to see that we're screwed? We can't keep borrowing/printing our prosperity forever.

There were those of us who said that the housing bubble was unsustainable.

We were ridiculed and dismissed.

I'm not even wasting my breath this time around.

But hope and change, you racist mouth-breather! Hope and farking change!

Crosshair: Debeo Summa Credo: How is that purchase looking for you now? So far its been useless, unless you've taken to holdups to make ends meet during the recession.

For me it has done well. Stocks of surplus 7.62x54R are running low and prices of Mosin-Nagants are rising. Certain ammo is falling price as the ammo bubble dissipates.

It is going to do much more good than the paper money the fed is running off the printing press.

Well, if he thinks a gun is a good long term physical investment from a financial perspective(i.e., collector's item that will appreciate in value), then good for him. But if he bought it to prepare for some economic cataclysm it has been a waste of money so far, and in all likelyhood will be forever.

SupremeLeader: Economists have properly predicted nine of the last five recessions.

Fark Independents(tm) and libertarians have properly predicted 475 of the last two recessions.

bronyaur1
Debeo Summa Credo

At least we have two people on this board with education and understanding of how the world actually works.

ScubaDude1960: At this point, does it really take a rocket scientist to see that we're screwed? We can't keep borrowing/printing our prosperity forever.

Not forever... but another 30 years would be nice.

What I want to know is where was this guy during the Nixon administration when we started down this road? Seriously; since absolutely none of this is at all new, the best refutation of his argument is that it hasn't happened yet. I know it sounds flimsy, but that's been the basis of our economy for the past 40 years - and as flimsy as it is, any more solid alternative would certainly make things a lot worse for a long time.

ParadigmLeftShift: HempHead: Its a win-win.

Except that it teaches everyone to spend, spend, spend, and not save for a rainy day. Stretch yourself to the maximum on the credit card, if enough of us do it, we will all have to be bailed out. Buy that house, it's ok, in 5 years the government has to inflate the debt away again. Oh, and trade in your 2 year old BMW, you totally deserve a new one.

For savers, however, it's the complete opposite. It's the ultimate destruction of the nestegg you've been working hard to create all your life. The closer you get to retirement, the more risk averse your portfolio should be, hence more cash. And it teaches future generations not to bother saving for retirement, because there's no guarantee your savings will be enough, regardless of quantity.

The other issue, of course, is - as an outside investor, what would be required for you to invest in a country that has just inflated all its debt away? Higher interest rates, of course. And until the US balances its books, it will either need to borrow money from somewhere, or print it, which will lead to even higher interest rate requirements or hyperinflation.

THIS

Debeo Summa Credo: Crosshair: Debeo Summa Credo: How is that purchase looking for you now? So far its been useless, unless you've taken to holdups to make ends meet during the recession.

For me it has done well. Stocks of surplus 7.62x54R are running low and prices of Mosin-Nagants are rising. Certain ammo is falling price as the ammo bubble dissipates.

It is going to do much more good than the paper money the fed is running off the printing press.

Well, if he thinks a gun is a good long term physical investment from a financial perspective(i.e., collector's item that will appreciate in value), then good for him. But if he bought it to prepare for some economic cataclysm it has been a waste of money so far, and in all likelyhood will be forever.

Give it time, we're in debt upto our eyeballs. Involved in 2 wars and countless bases overseas. There are unfunded liabilities owed to baby boomers (social security, medicare) and state, local and city pensioners. Then there's the interest on the debt. Its all piling up and even cutting defense to zero won't help us there.

I'd "invest" in a AK personally. Just gotta convince the wife.

trippdogg: Not forever... but another 30 years would be nice

We may not have 30 years, we've been borrowing like this since the end of WWII. Chickens have come home to roost

eurotrader
everyone in Congress just puts their fingers in their ears and shouts "I am not hearing you" when talk about the next bubble occurs so later they can say the never heard about it.

Pretty much.

See - Link

...the decisions to use faulty models was an economic and political choice, because it benefited the economists and those who hired them.

For example, the elites get wealthy during booms and they get wealthy during busts. Therefore, the boom-and-bust cycle benefits them enormously, as they can trade both ways.

Specifically, as Simon Johnson, William K. Black and others point out, the big boys make bucketloads of money during the booms using fraudulent schemes and knowing that many borrowers will default. Then, during the bust, they know the government will bail them out, and they will be able to buy up competitors for cheap and consolidate power. They may also bet against the same products they are selling during the boom (more here), knowing that they'll make a killing when it busts.

The fed loves asset bubbles, that is how their friends make money, and they will too once they return to corporate life.

Debeo Summa Credo: Colonel_Debugger: bronyaur1:

Zeno-25: at least I managed to get a hold of an inexpensive Mosin-Nagant and a few tins of 7.62x54 ammo when things really started to fall apart last fall.

How is that purchase looking for you now? So far its been useless, unless you've taken to holdups to make ends meet during the recession.

Pretty good, actually. I'm no gun enthusiast but for some reason I just find pre-AK47 Soviet battle rifles to be really cool as historical objects. Mine is a 1940 Tula 91/30, so it's entirely possible that it killed some Nazis in its day. Refinishing it and getting it back into good condition was a fun project. It was my first firearm so I've had a lot of fun going out to the range with friends, as well. I just take the Obama bumper sticker off my car every time I go in case anyone there is feeling particularly nutty.

/way to look like an asshole, douchebag
//fark off

Zeno-25: Debeo Summa Credo: Colonel_Debugger: bronyaur1:

Zeno-25: at least I managed to get a hold of an inexpensive Mosin-Nagant and a few tins of 7.62x54 ammo when things really started to fall apart last fall.

How is that purchase looking for you now? So far its been useless, unless you've taken to holdups to make ends meet during the recession.

Pretty good, actually. I'm no gun enthusiast but for some reason I just find pre-AK47 Soviet battle rifles to be really cool as historical objects. Mine is a 1940 Tula 91/30, so it's entirely possible that it killed some Nazis in its day. Refinishing it and getting it back into good condition was a fun project. It was my first firearm so I've had a lot of fun going out to the range with friends, as well. I just take the Obama bumper sticker off my car every time I go in case anyone there is feeling particularly nutty.

/way to look like an asshole, douchebag
//fark off


From the context of your post is sounded like you bought it because you thought some economic catastrophe was going to make gun ownership necessary to feed yourself. For that intended purpose, it was a waste.

If you bought a WWII era gun because you like it and think it's cool, and you got a good price on it because of the financial crisis, that's totally fine. It's not at all clear from your post, though.

GaryPDX: ParadigmLeftShift: All this "BANKS ARE NOT LENDING" is a red herring. The real issue is the enormous amounts of debt in society.

ding ding ding! This. This country is tapped out and teetering on edge getting ready to fall.



/Right in the statisticals.

Debeo Summa Credo: Zeno-25: Debeo Summa Credo: Colonel_Debugger: bronyaur1:

Zeno-25: at least I managed to get a hold of an inexpensive Mosin-Nagant and a few tins of 7.62x54 ammo when things really started to fall apart last fall.

How is that purchase looking for you now? So far its been useless, unless you've taken to holdups to make ends meet during the recession.

Pretty good, actually. I'm no gun enthusiast but for some reason I just find pre-AK47 Soviet battle rifles to be really cool as historical objects. Mine is a 1940 Tula 91/30, so it's entirely possible that it killed some Nazis in its day. Refinishing it and getting it back into good condition was a fun project. It was my first firearm so I've had a lot of fun going out to the range with friends, as well. I just take the Obama bumper sticker off my car every time I go in case anyone there is feeling particularly nutty.

/way to look like an asshole, douchebag
//fark off


From the context of your post is sounded like you bought it because you thought some economic catastrophe was going to make gun ownership necessary to feed yourself. For that intended purpose, it was a waste.

If you bought a WWII era gun because you like it and think it's cool, and you got a good price on it because of the financial crisis, that's totally fine. It's not at all clear from your post, though.

Honestly, I'm still not convinced that we're through the woods yet when it comes to the global economy and financial system. I mean, who is? The bottom line is that I bought a firearm for a variety of reasons. Last fall just looked like a particularly good time to buy a gun, both due to the financial system on the verge of collapse and with an imminent Democratic landslide on the horizon.

Raptop: Can we retire the "electric boogaloo" theme? Pretty please?

When the next bubble bursts we won't be able to afford electricity, so it should go away on its own.

SchlingFocker: ScubaDude1960: At this point, does it really take a rocket scientist to see that we're screwed? We can't keep borrowing/printing our prosperity forever.

There were those of us who said that the housing bubble was unsustainable.

We were ridiculed and dismissed.

I'm not even wasting my breath this time around.

The sad thing is that those who saw it coming (Tom Woods, Peter Schiff, etc.) are STILL being ridiculed, for saying that stimulus spending and continued low interest rates will only make the problem worse.

FarkIlk01: FTA"The Fed and other policymakers seem unaware of the monster bubble they are creating," writes Roubini. "The longer they remain blind, the harder the markets will fall." Haven't we seen this movie before?

They are very aware. They are doing everything in their power to stop deflation and it still isn't working.

The olny way to recover from a bubble is to let it pop. They are trying to reinflate the bubble. It will not end well.

bronyaur1: The only bubble I see is the one in gold. Security prices are up, but HARDLY in speculative bubble territory.

BANKS ARE NOT LENDING. How can low int rates be fueling speculation???

Have you checked the money supply or government bond markets lately.

HempHead: crazytrpr: poisonedpawn78: crazytrpr:
10% today, 100% tomorrow. Its bad enough if you know the real numbers. If the government is "cooking the books", god help us, how can we make a decision on what to do without making it worse?


High inflation would rescue all of the people with mortgages they cannot afford today. If would also benefit all the companies (GM/FORD/Chrysler)with large numbers of retirees collecting non-inflation adjusted pensions. If would also help out with Social Security.

Its a win-win.

Except that it would wipe out mortgage companies and others holding long term, fixed interest debt.

Losses will mount, confidence will fall and the real economy will suffer.

haha. I love how he calls the people actually working instead of stock market wanking and paper-shuffling the "real economy".

Don't worry, I reported Roubini as a suspected Muslim to DHS, so this will all be taken care of soon.

Tickle Mittens: Back in my Econ 201 class sometime back in 1994 the professor would name drop and talk about how he'd called up Greenspan to yell at him about his farked up managing of the Fed. Or he'd go off on a tangent about how this massive wave was coming and we were all going to get swept up in it and there was basically nothing we could do.

Goodtimes....

Yeah, a Wall Street friend of mine wrote a book about Greenspan and his insanity in 2003 but his employer wouldn't let him publish it. It's out now.

It is amusingly titled Maestro My Ass! (new window)

ghare: SouthernManDunWrong: I am living proof that most Southerners spend their days huffing toluene.

Yup.


Goddamit where is the original post you are replying to? This happens a lot and it annoys the shiat out of me. Do TFers have a 'delete my post' button?

Shocktopus: Goddamit where is the original post you are replying to? This happens a lot and it annoys the shiat out of me. Do TFers have a 'delete my post' button?

lol

Fuggin Bizzy 2009-11-10 01:56:05 PM
SchlingFocker: There were those of us who said that the housing bubble was unsustainable.

We were ridiculed and dismissed.

I'm not even wasting my breath this time around.

THIS

I distinctly remember a conversation with a friend in which he said that "housing always goes up." Nothing goes up forever, I told him. "Well, housing's different" was his response.

Mmmkay.

/Those of us that saw the housing bubble just "didn't get it." The "rules had changed."
//Oh wait...that was the tech bubble. It's getting hard to keep track.

THIS

I had a friend that bought a house in 2006. She paid 215K for a POS. It is now worth 75K. I saw the bubble and waited. I just paid 104K for a house that once went for 314K. In Mesa, AZ. My house payment, (on a 2K square foot ), is now 100.00 less than rent for a 2 bed room apt. My payment on my 4 year old house is less than her house, (half the size), that is 40 years old.

On the banks are not lending: I just closed 1 month ago on a mortgage and bought a bedroom set on credit. I have seen no problem. I was also one that saved and have almost all my credit paid off, (until I bought the bedroom set). If you have been conservative, there is money out there.

On inflation: I see a big rise in inflation very soon. That is why I bought the house. Got it at 5.5%. If inflation goes to 10% or more, my house just got cheaper. My pay goes up, house payment does not.

Profits can be taken in these times, you just had to be carefull before. If everyone is running to an investment, you should get out. Everyone has been bailing on housing, that is why I got in. I also am not doing the "flipping" thing. This is the house I am living in, and that is what it is for, not an investment to be cashed out like an ATM.

hockeyfarker: Shocktopus: Goddamit where is the original post you are replying to? This happens a lot and it annoys the shiat out of me. Do TFers have a 'delete my post' button?

lol

I'm such an idiot. I was so mad about not being able to find the original post to see why in hell someone would say that about himself that it completely went over my head.