LOL WUT?

Since we don't need that 10%, can I burn them for fuel?

How does this work? Seriously? The gov't handed out money for cars and houses. That doesn't mean the economy is turning around. I mean, I see the deficit is growing but I don't see how the economy is growing. Isn't the growth artificial?

I love the implication that there are "jobs" out there anymore. We still live in a mental state where it's perpetually 1905 and, if the economy is good, we can walk up to the front gate of the blast furnace, hat in hand, tell the foreman we work real hard and our boy, Tiny Tim, has a sick lung and could we please get a job we'd be forever in debt to 'ya.

All "jobs" means today is "Wal-Mart is hiring." Otherwise, shiat thousands of dollars down the higher educational sinkhole and, if your school's got contacts, you get a job when you're done. If not, Wal-Mart's hiring.

bluefelix: Isn't the growth artificial?

yup..not to mention it's one quarter.
Things go up and down.

When the seasons change from Fall to Winter, there may be a day that was warmer than yesterday but it doesn't mean we skipped winter and went straight to spring.

Humans are short-sighted, so many will see this as the end of the recession.

Fortunately, I'm far more pessimistic and I see this crap economy being dragged out for years.

Employment is a trailing indicator. To make profits bigger, most companies cut costs (i.e. employees). So when they start getting more work, they're going to try to do it with the employees they have so they can make a higher profit.

If the economy continues to improve and we don't have a double dip recession employment numbers should pick up. If they don't, then our economy is farked because consumer spending is the basis of the whole ponzi scheme.

\Which is why the Zombie Reagan plan won't work
\\Investors are no longer what drives the economy

Zentelis: yup..not to mention it's one quarter.

Since when has the business world cared about what happened more than a quarter from now?

WOOT! I can give up bartending and finally get a real job!

\I have noticed more jobs on the job boards recently.
\Hell one temp agency actually called me back as well.

Whodat?: I love the implication that there are "jobs" out there anymore. We still live in a mental state where it's perpetually 1905 and, if the economy is good, we can walk up to the front gate of the blast furnace, hat in hand, tell the foreman we work real hard and our boy, Tiny Tim, has a sick lung and could we please get a job we'd be forever in debt to 'ya.

All "jobs" means today is "Wal-Mart is hiring." Otherwise, shiat thousands of dollars down the higher educational sinkhole and, if your school's got contacts, you get a job when you're done. If not, Wal-Mart's hiring.

I never got a degree, the country was in a recession when I got my first job. I did what I needed to do to survive. I applied myself and improved my skill set. Right now I am doing very well, never had a worry that I wouldn't find another job if something happened. Still don't. Point is, it's not about college or contacts, it's about ability and willpower. You have to work for things in this life (with the exception of some that do have money and contacts).

As a great man once said...'World needs ditchdiggers too'.

bluefelix: How does this work? Seriously? The gov't handed out money for cars and houses. That doesn't mean the economy is turning around. I mean, I see the deficit is growing but I don't see how the economy is growing. Isn't the growth artificial?

Government spending is part of this number so any growth was growth in our borrowing...

Whaddya know, printing and borrowing a trillion dollars that we can't repay worked in the short term. Let's keep doing it, our GDP will go to like 15%!

Whodat?: I
All "jobs" means today is "Wal-Mart is hiring." Otherwise, shiat thousands of dollars down the higher educational sinkhole and, if your school's got contacts, you get a job when you're done. If not, Wal-Mart's hiring.


Small company I work for has announcments up for about 30+ jobs and has for months. Most people just aren't qualified. And I bet a lot of people are discovering that their degree in Poetry Writing means fark all now. It's worth throwing thousands of dollars down the higher education sinkhole if you major in something people actually need.

Spade: Whodat?: I
All "jobs" means today is "Wal-Mart is hiring." Otherwise, shiat thousands of dollars down the higher educational sinkhole and, if your school's got contacts, you get a job when you're done. If not, Wal-Mart's hiring.


Small company I work for has announcments up for about 30+ jobs and has for months. Most people just aren't qualified. And I bet a lot of people are discovering that their degree in Poetry Writing means fark all now. It's worth throwing thousands of dollars down the higher education sinkhole if you major in something people actually need.

Who's talking about degrees is poetry writing? That's the first refuge of those that don't want to face the problem: our economy does not create jobs that people can live on in anything approaching the necessary number.

Ummm... considering the explosion of Government Spending and "monetary easing", a.k.a., making up money; how is 3.5% good?

Does anyone have good site to look at the component numbers of the GDP. I would love to see how much of this GDP number is solely based on the Government shoveling money out the door.

To be fair the government has also spent billions in helping states extend unemployment benefits to people out of work. And they're probably going to have to extend them again.

mrshowrules: The growth is real. Just because it was boosted by Government spending, does not make it artificial but it might mean that it is temporary.

It just means the statistic is flawed. Growth of government comes directly from wealth created in the private sector--whether that be today's taxes or tomorrow'.

mdbirt: Does anyone have good site to look at the component numbers of the GDP. I would love to see how much of this GDP number is solely based on the Government shoveling money out the door.

About 1.7% (new window) as:

Motor vehicle output added 1.66 percentage points to the third-quarter change in real GDP after
adding 0.19 percentage point to the second-quarter change.

This is from the Cash for Clunkers program and bailouts. Actually 3.5% is good without government bailouts. If we get to 3.5%-4.0% for a couple of quarters after the bailouts and government incentives like the Home Buyer Tax Credit then we are well on our way to recovery.

Of course the government knows this and will probably extend all sorts of incentives and continue stimulus packages to make sure it stays about +3-4%. The long term ramifications are probably bad but unknown as we will be drowning in debt if it goes on for years. What does unending debt and a "jobless recovery" mean for a modern nation? I don't know.

Good day to short the S&P. A robust recovery is already priced in - when it becomes clearer that the GDP 'growth' was mostly the government giving away money we dont have, and that a recovery at all is still uncertain, let alone a robust one, there's gonna be a reckonin'

bluefelix: How does this work? Seriously? The gov't handed out money for cars and houses. That doesn't mean the economy is turning around. I mean, I see the deficit is growing but I don't see how the economy is growing. Isn't the growth artificial?

THIS

oneodd1: Growth of government comes directly from wealth created in the private sector--whether that be today's taxes or tomorrow'.

That's not entirely right unless you mean inflation is another form of taxation. Governmental growth and the money supply comes from debt in our system, both private and public.

mrshowrules: The growth is real. Just because it was boosted by Government spending, does not make it artificial but it might mean that it is temporary.

When it's accomplished by govt spending with money we don't have and will have to pay back with interest, it's not natural. Hence artificial, hence not real.

mrshowrules: bluefelix: How does this work? Seriously? The gov't handed out money for cars and houses. That doesn't mean the economy is turning around. I mean, I see the deficit is growing but I don't see how the economy is growing. Isn't the growth artificial?

The growth is real. Just because it was boosted by Government spending, does not make it artificial but it might mean that it is temporary.

Ok, that's fair. I suppose I don't see this economic growth as meaningful given the massive government spending. I'm waiting for unemployment to go down.

The last positive thing I read about job creation was that Game Stop is adding 15,000 seasonal employees. Low wage, temporary work. But that does mean that they expect consumers to come out and spend money. Those aren't great jobs, they aren't even good jobs, but I am a tiny bit more hopeful about our economy. It remains to be seen whether or not Game Stop is right about consumers spending money on video games... takes a fair amount of disposable income to support that hobby.

Whodat?: Spade: Whodat?: I
All "jobs" means today is "Wal-Mart is hiring." Otherwise, shiat thousands of dollars down the higher educational sinkhole and, if your school's got contacts, you get a job when you're done. If not, Wal-Mart's hiring.


Small company I work for has announcments up for about 30+ jobs and has for months. Most people just aren't qualified. And I bet a lot of people are discovering that their degree in Poetry Writing means fark all now. It's worth throwing thousands of dollars down the higher education sinkhole if you major in something people actually need.

Who's talking about degrees is poetry writing? That's the first refuge of those that don't want to face the problem: our economy does not create jobs that people can live on in anything approaching the necessary number.

Define what you mean by 'people can live on'. I know a girl who works at Subway during the day and Mcdonalds during the night. She has an apartment and not much else since she is dumping everything into savings. She is not dying in the street.

Now if you mean 'live' with a big house, a lexus and 3 plasmas, well then tough shiat. Work harder to make yourself a desirable employee. Too many people think it's a right to live in luxury.

Spade: Small company I work for has announcments up for about 30+ jobs and has for months. Most people just aren't qualified. And I bet a lot of people are discovering that their degree in Poetry Writing means fark all now. It's worth throwing thousands of dollars down the higher education sinkhole if you major in something people actually need.

It's a good thing you are talking out your ass, or I'd be worried.

bluefelix: Ok, that's fair. I suppose I don't see this economic growth as meaningful given the massive government spending. I'm waiting for unemployment to go down.

I don't think it ill be binary this time like the last few recessions. Think of Japan in the 90's.

Take a look at this chart (new window). I believe that Employment Population ratios are a better assessment of where things are.

This recession has brought us back to 1984 levels of employment as a percentage of the population. Now what is interesting is that we never recovered from the dot-com crash so really we've had a net loss since 2001. If the goal is to return to 2006 level of employment it would it could take about a decade assuming there are no more recessions during that time--if it started tomorrow.

This is why some people are predicting a "lost decade" for the US; a decade of very slow growth and periods of stagnation as the debt is dealt with and society reorganizes after the loss of trillions and millions of jobs being gone forever and people moving to different fields for lower wages.

I don't know what is going to happen as we are in uncharted territory.

rytheran: Define what you mean by 'people can live on'. I know a girl who works at Subway during the day and Mcdonalds during the night. She has an apartment and not much else since she is dumping everything into savings. She is not dying in the street.

Now if you mean 'live' with a big house, a lexus and 3 plasmas, well then tough shiat. Work harder to make yourself a desirable employee. Too many people think it's a right to live in luxury.

That's one thing that really pisses me off about the economy, is the whining you hear about "people suffering", when there are so many millions of people always down and out, doing their best to pull themselves up. Now some people are losing their houses, expensive cars, or biatching that their $800,000 house is only worth $500,000. And now they need a govt bailout in the form of a really low interest rate while people like your friend are subsidizing their greed with their tax dollars. It makes me want to throw up. We live in a sick society where the responsible are punished, and the irresponsible are rewarded. Live beyond your means, someone else will pay for it.

FarkIlk01
If the goal is to return to 2006 level of employment it would it could take about a decade assuming there are no more recessions during that time--if it started tomorrow.

Sadly, I think you're being optimistic. When you consider the actual number of unemployed, plus the number of new jobs that must be created to keep up with people entering the job market, the growth rate will need to exceed that of the 90's. We'll be lucky if we're back to full employment (95%) within 15 years

mrshowrules: I understand your point. I see it more as a question of sustainability nor artificiality. I know it is semantics but it is real growth. It is a measure of money moving through the economy. When people buy with their credit card it isn't less artificial than the government borrowing and spending. When you say it is "artificial" you imply that the growth would vanish if Government spending was stopped. You can't say that because the spending has already become part of the economy and can't be removed. It will bounce around the economy for many years.

The economy is sustained by many "unnatural/artificial" elements. Mortgage backed securities, consumer confidence, commodity prices. None of these are "natural" but they are components of the economy none the less. Deficit spending is real also. It has secondary affects (e.g., inflation, trade). You could argue that it is poor fiscal policy but cannot say the current economic growth is artifical, implies a mythical "natural" level of an economy. The US consumes more than it produces so a "natural" level of your economy is false construct to begin with.

Yes, it's the whole concept of multiples. Spend a trillion dollars, and that money bounces around forever, like rays of light inside a box of mirrors. Problem is that this will have to be met with a lack of spending and/or high increase in taxes at some point. This won't be a lack of continued spending as much as having to make up for what was spent before. So as $1 of govt spending might in the long term yield $10 increase in GDP over the years, having to pay it back + interest will cost something like $1.30, or an eventual GDP loss of $13 over the years. These are rough numbers of course, but the whole concept of a free lunch just isn't feasible.

Now the pro-spending advocates of this administration like to hide behind Keynes and his theories to justify this reckless plan. Problem is that whether you agree with Keynes' theories or not (and I think most economists do), it was based on the notion that the money being spent was saved first. That way there isn't an actual cost to providing stimulus. At worst, it could be a poor allocation of money to create make-shift jobs. But at least it causes the money to "multiply". I think that this current economic plan is a disaster. It exemplifies all the concerns of wasteful spending, and the cost for it and subsequent cost in the "multiplied" dollars sucked out of the economy is just shameful. But hey, at least we have growth for a quarter, that's all they care about.

So I'll concede that we're playing with semantics when I'm saying it's artificial. It's certainly real, but we know in our minds that it came from the world of "buy your way out of debt", which is just not practical.

By the way, if you ever needed a clear-cut case as to how stupid congress is, you've got one now. They're talking on capital hill right now about expanding the first time home buyer credit. It's already cost us about $20 billion, at a marginal sales cost of over $40k per additional house purchased, and hasn't added anything to the economy other than an exchange of property from one person to another. That was really bad, and overinflated home prices, but now they want to extend it to non first timers, "move-ups" selling one house and buying another. Now this will obviously spur supply and drive down prices, so why would they do this when it's contrary to the previous credit's intention? The reason is because the other one wasn't about prices, nor is this. They're about generating sales volume for NAR and the banks and lenders. That's all it is. My blood is boiling that they can continue their assault on the American economy like this.

Zentelis: bluefelix: Isn't the growth artificial?

yup..not to mention it's one quarter.
Things go up and down.

When the seasons change from Fall to Winter, there may be a day that was warmer than yesterday but it doesn't mean we skipped winter and went straight to spring.

Humans are short-sighted, so many will see this as the end of the recession.

Fortunately, I'm far more pessimistic and I see this crap economy being dragged out for years.

Spoken like someone who failed Macro economics in school.

From the report:
Disposable personal income decreased $20.4 billion (0.7 percent) in the third quarter, in contrast to an increase of $138.2 billion (5.2 percent) in the second. Real disposable personal income decreased 3.4 percent, in contrast to an increase of 3.8 percent.

I'm sure that will do wonders for upcoming Christmas sales

mrshowrules: I think you nailed it there. Employment will increase but it will be part-time jobs and crappier salaries. I think Americans were riding a salary bubble for many years (middle and upper class anyways). Crappier jobs are not the end of the world as long as you at least have access to basic health care.

Absolutely. People need to get ready for a massive drop in their standards of living. The problem with the housing bubble is that it fed trillions in equity dollars to our economy. That pushed up salaries and kept inept businesses and obsolete business models in action when they really needed reform. All of that has to be reversed, and it will be painful. The govt is trying to stop it, but they're just pouring fuel on the fire.

Whodat?: I love the implication that there are "jobs" out there anymore. We still live in a mental state where it's perpetually 1905 and, if the economy is good, we can walk up to the front gate of the blast furnace, hat in hand, tell the foreman we work real hard and our boy, Tiny Tim, has a sick lung and could we please get a job we'd be forever in debt to 'ya.

All "jobs" means today is "Wal-Mart is hiring." Otherwise, shiat thousands of dollars down the higher educational sinkhole and, if your school's got contacts, you get a job when you're done. If not, Wal-Mart's hiring.

You sound unskilled

Valarius: "As a great man once said...'World needs ditchdiggers too'."


THE WORLD ISN'T HIRING ANY GODDAMN DITCHDIGGERS!

THERE AREN'T ANY GODDAMN BOOTSTRAPS TO PULL OURSELVES UP WITH!

THAT'S THE GODDAMNED POINT!

Point taken. But Walmart, Target, McDonalds, Burger King etc etc is hiring. I see 'help wanted' signs in all those places. I guess with heavy machinery, ditchdiggers aren't in demand.

The Fark Independents are out in force today.

For the first time in a year the economy did not contract, but that's bad news in Fark Independent land.

Stile4aly: The Fark Independents are out in force today.

For the first time in a year the economy did not contract, but that's bad news in Fark Independent land.

While I am very worried about the sustainability of this growth, I hear what you are saying...

FarkIlk01: Now what is interesting is that we never recovered from the dot-com crash so really we've had a net loss since 2001.

That and how real income more or less kept flat these last years.

Stile4aly: The Fark Independents are out in force today.

For the first time in a year the economy did not contract, but that's bad news in Fark Independent land.

What exactly is a Fark Independent? I don't look at the politics tab that much.

whistleridge: Basically, it's a bullsh*t artist.

You forgot the "both sides are EVIL!" bit, usually done while calling out any of the many egregious sins of the American Left.

Good news: GDP is growing.

Bad news: GDP is calculated by summing up a few factors, one of which is government spending. Want to artificially get a good GDP? Just debt spend like crazy.

This reminds me of 2nd quarter 2008, when the first stimulus resulted in GDP growing 3.3%.

Clarence Potter: whistleridge: Basically, it's a bullsh*t artist.

You forgot the "both sides are EVIL!" bit, usually done while calling out any of the many egregious sins of the American Left.

Well, I think Bush was an idiot who padded the pockets of his cronies while screwing the people. I think Obama is a slick promise breaker who is spending money we don't have. However, my house is not paid off, my car is fairly new and gets shiatty gas mileage, my credit is meh. I do have a gun and a dog though. What would that make me?

rytheran: Clarence Potter: whistleridge: Basically, it's a bullsh*t artist.

You forgot the "both sides are EVIL!" bit, usually done while calling out any of the many egregious sins of the American Left.

Well, I think Bush was an idiot who padded the pockets of his cronies while screwing the people. I think Obama is a slick promise breaker who is spending money we don't have. However, my house is not paid off, my car is fairly new and gets shiatty gas mileage, my credit is meh. I do have a gun and a dog though. What would that make me?

Absolvent?