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(Some Guy)   "If measured according to the methodology used when I was Assistant Secretary of the Treasury, the unemployment rate today in the US is above 20%."   (opednews.com) divider line 165
    More: Scary, Assistant Secretary of the Treasury, methodology, Ben Bernanke, consumer debt, John Williams, Goldman Sachs, Federal Reserve chairman, Alan Greenspan  
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3787 clicks; posted to Politics » on 24 Sep 2009 at 2:03 AM (4 years ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2009-09-23 10:39:58 PM
Sounds about right. BLS never counts the thing right and I've always wondered why. I mean I know why, but why are they such cocks about it?

Underemployed?
Stopped looking? So they stopped looking but still have no job? How are they now magically dropped from existing people without a job? They left the "pool"? That's brilliant! That way you can just make the damn number read anything you want.

It wasn't just banking that was corrupt. The whole system was rigged to make everything seem much better than it is.
 
2009-09-23 10:54:45 PM
That means nothing without a comparison of what it was before the crash. While the unemployment number is fixed, it also has a basis of comparison. That, and I know a lot of engineering firms hiring. All their Baby Boomers are leaving. High-end firms are either hiring for almost everything or nothing right now, depending on their Boomer percentage.
 
2009-09-23 11:04:42 PM
I don't know if I can trust the man known as the "Father of Reaganomics." Didn't one of his economic policy pillars, i.e. reduce government regulation of the economy, lead to the mess we're in now?

I did notice a similar theme running in his article, that is, it's Clinton's fault US unemployment is undercounted.
 
2009-09-23 11:09:51 PM
AirForceVet: I did notice a similar theme running in his article, that is, it's Clinton's fault US unemployment is undercounted.

Well, it is, partly. I was a bit younger but I remember when they announced the new "standards" for employment and they sounded like a crock of shiat. Of course, it makes things seem better for a Democratic president as well as a Republican one. It makes them all look good when they need it. It's not honest math.

Of course if we revised now people would shiat their pants.

But, Obama is going to have to eat a lot of turd sammiches if he really wants to fix this thing and set us on a path to success.
 
2009-09-24 12:30:13 AM
The BLS alternate rate is 16-17%, what does that rate not count that your rate counts?

AirForceVet: I don't know if I can trust the man known as the "Father of Reaganomics."

Yet he's bashing offshoring and said that this century has so far been shiat for wealth creation.

Maybe there's hope in him yet.
 
2009-09-24 12:44:32 AM
Also, the bit about "unemployment was reported differently before Clinton" is untrue (pdf).

The BLS tightened the restrictions with additional questions, which reduced the ranks of discouraged workers by half. As Williams puts it, "The Clinton administration dismissed to the non-reporting netherworld about five million discouraged workers." Add those in, he says, and unemployment approaches Great Depression levels.

Nardone, the longtime BLS economist who today serves as assistant commissioner for current employment analysis, says the 25% unemployment rate often cited for the Great Depression is based on research that corresponds with today's U-3, the unemployment rate most commonly reported by the media. It stands at 9.4%, recall -- not close to Depression-era levels. The 1994 changes did reduce the ranks of discouraged workers, but also introduced a new category: the marginally attached, who want jobs but aren't looking for reasons like transportation problems and child-care requirements. The most commonly watched measure (now U-3, before the change U-5) is mostly unaffected, since it doesn't include discouraged workers. The benefit of the changes, explains Steven Haugen, a BLS economist, is a less subjective measure of discouragement, and some additional ways to judge whether the nation is not only working, but working up to its ability. Williams says the change reduced the broadest measure of unemployment in a way that "doesn't match with public perception, and for good reason."
 
2009-09-24 12:59:24 AM
elchip: Yet he's bashing offshoring and said that this century has so far been shiat for wealth creation.

It's an article from a guy a fundamentally disagree with on his economic principles, but he he pretty much all of the right notes.

Now, I don't want his solutions to the problems, but he is stating the problems quite clearly.

Lou Dobbs came close to hitting these points for awhile, but then some Hispanic stole his jelly donut or something and he went batshiat insane. Kind of how Perot was right about NAFTA and Ron Paul was right about Iraq, but they are both batshiat insane.
 
2009-09-24 01:30:12 AM
They will never admit what the true unemployment rate is because people would be outraged.
 
2009-09-24 02:08:57 AM
eddyatwork: They will never admit what the true unemployment rate is because people would be outraged.

It's actually 140%. People are so unemployed, even if we all had jobs, unemployment would be in double digits.
 
2009-09-24 02:11:53 AM
Heh, OgreMagi, myself and skullkrusher were just talking about this in another thread.
 
2009-09-24 02:12:28 AM
In the "for what it's worth" department, Paul Craig Roberts is a Truther. I realize that doesn't negate his article, but when you couple that with founding Reagonomics, it makes me intensely skeptical of anything he claims.
 
2009-09-24 02:13:47 AM
Gyrfalcon: eddyatwork: They will never admit what the true unemployment rate is because people would be outraged.

It's actually 140%. People are so unemployed, even if we all had jobs, unemployment would be in double digits.


Little known fact: the real number of folks who attended the Tea Party march in Washington? 1 trillion people.
 
2009-09-24 02:19:49 AM
eddyatwork: They will never admit what the true unemployment rate is because people would be outraged.

Did someone call?

www.everydayshouldbesaturday.com
 
2009-09-24 02:25:09 AM
I've read that when people fall off the unemployment benefit rolls their also not counted as unemployed any longer also. Anyone know if that's BS?
 
2009-09-24 02:27:01 AM
If inflation rises before unemployment rates decline, I think America could be in for trouble not seen since the 60s.
 
2009-09-24 02:28:22 AM
This particular line from the article should be repeated:

Despite 20% unemployment and cum laude engineering graduates who cannot find jobs or even job interviews, Congress continues to support 65,000 annual H-1B work visas for foreigners.

I am not anti-immigrant. But there comes a time when you have to say, fark 'em, we have serious problems at home that we need to deal with.
 
2009-09-24 02:29:48 AM
alostpacket: Heh, OgreMagi, myself and skullkrusher were just talking about this in another thread.

And that 20% rate is way higher than any of us believed, right? I figured 15% (true rate, not official rate).
 
2009-09-24 02:29:54 AM
relcec: I've read that when people fall off the unemployment benefit rolls their also not counted as unemployed any longer also. Anyone know if that's BS?

That's true. It was either July or August, when unemployment actually dropped slightly, the media reported it was mostly due to people who no longer qualified for unemployment and so were no longer counted.

Also, if you are paid via 1099 instead of W-2, you aren't counted.
 
2009-09-24 02:32:58 AM
It's a statistic. It's not true. As far as I know, the unemployment rate is the number of people seeking benefits from the state, which is a tactic not everyone uses, seeing as it's farking useless half the time.
 
2009-09-24 02:34:20 AM
Well, on a brighter note. Comparing the unemployment chart posted by alostpacket in another thread, we might be able to say "USA! USA! WE'RE NUMBER ONE!"

/yeah, we're farked
 
2009-09-24 02:34:48 AM
It's certainly higher than what's being reported, although there's another difficulty in measuring employment in the US given how many people work in the informal sector (not officially employed, especially illegal immigrants.)

If I have to pick two things that concern me about the US employment situation it's 1. How difficult it is to immigrate if you're a skilled worker, and 2. Widespread underemployment. The third is that unemployment and underemployment are much more highly concentrated in minority communities.

Problems. The US has them.
But so does every country, really.

/would like to work in America someday
//only if health insurance and gay rights are fixed because honestly? If I'm going to live somewhere, I need to be able to stay alive, and also be treated as a human being.
///in the meantime... Canada!
 
2009-09-24 02:37:37 AM
relcec: I've read that when people fall off the unemployment benefit rolls their also not counted as unemployed any longer also. Anyone know if that's BS?

If you mean the U-3 rate that the media tends to report without actually calling "U-3" and that BLS headlines as "unemployment rate", what you claimed to read is bullshiat.

To quote the BLS themselves,

Is the count of unemployed persons limited to just those people receiving unemployment insurance benefits?

No; the estimate of unemployment is based on a monthly sample survey of house-holds. All persons who are without jobs and are actively seeking and available to work are included among the unemployed. (People on temporary layoff are included even if they do not actively seek work.) There is no requirement or question relating to unemployment insurance benefits in the monthly survey.


http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.faq.htm

Now please stop spreading that.
 
2009-09-24 02:39:54 AM
OgreMagi: This particular line from the article should be repeated:

Despite 20% unemployment and cum laude engineering graduates who cannot find jobs or even job interviews, Congress continues to support 65,000 annual H-1B work visas for foreigners.

I am not anti-immigrant. But there comes a time when you have to say, fark 'em, we have serious problems at home that we need to deal with.


No, that's not true. The H-1B work visas have plunged dramatically during this recession according to a bunch of articles I've read lately.

Also, work visas tend to be to recruit skilled workers in fields where appropriate candidates for jobs are scarce. And they are very difficult to obtain and the fees are high. There are serious barriers to entry, much more so than other countries (like Canada.)

So, skilled engineers... come to Canada, where the beer is cold, and the winter is really cold, but we are not an economic basket case and we love immigrants, so we have that going for us.
 
2009-09-24 02:40:37 AM
justinguarini4ever: If inflation rises before unemployment rates decline, I think America could be in for trouble not seen since the 60s.

It's pretty difficult for that to happen, since the fed doesn't include food, fuel or shelter in it's inflation calculations, lol. If they did they would have raised interest rates 5 years ago and maybe substantially slowed the growth of the housing bubble and saved us all a lot of heartache. Then again their portfolios would have suffered. They have learned nothing.

/understands housing is considered an asset and not a consumer good and the reason why food and fuel is not included
/still thinks it would be a good idea to get the fed back to thinking its main job is checking inflation and not stimulating the stock market, and rework it's inflation calculations so they are more realistic
 
2009-09-24 02:47:39 AM
IStateTheObvious: relcec: I've read that when people fall off the unemployment benefit rolls their also not counted as unemployed any longer also. Anyone know if that's BS?

That's true. It was either July or August, when unemployment actually dropped slightly, the media reported it was mostly due to people who no longer qualified for unemployment and so were no longer counted.

Also, if you are paid via 1099 instead of W-2, you aren't counted.


I'm somewhat heartened to hear the media reported the reason for the drop.

Anyone read they are thinking about extending unemployment benefits again but only for states that have over 9.5% unemployment? What kind of bullshiat is that?
 
2009-09-24 02:48:14 AM
bobbette: OgreMagi: This particular line from the article should be repeated:

Despite 20% unemployment and cum laude engineering graduates who cannot find jobs or even job interviews, Congress continues to support 65,000 annual H-1B work visas for foreigners.

I am not anti-immigrant. But there comes a time when you have to say, fark 'em, we have serious problems at home that we need to deal with.

No, that's not true. The H-1B work visas have plunged dramatically during this recession according to a bunch of articles I've read lately.

Also, work visas tend to be to recruit skilled workers in fields where appropriate candidates for jobs are scarce. And they are very difficult to obtain and the fees are high. There are serious barriers to entry, much more so than other countries (like Canada.)

So, skilled engineers... come to Canada, where the beer is cold, and the winter is really cold, but we are not an economic basket case and we love immigrants, so we have that going for us.


After the tech bubble burst a few years ago they continued to give out H1-Bs to foreign tech workers even though there were plenty of highly skilled tech workers looking for work already here. I don't care if the number of H1-B workers is down. Why are there any when unemployment is so high?
 
2009-09-24 02:50:43 AM
bobbette: No, that's not true. The H-1B work visas have plunged dramatically during this recession according to a bunch of articles I've read lately.

Consistent, I think; the visas are still being offered, they're just not being as utilized (and in prior years, they were often all claimed within a ridiculously short time after they were available). There is simply less hiring (total, not just H-1B); in addition, one of the requirements is that the position is supposed to have been advertised and left unfilled by domestic labor for some time, IIRC. With high unemployment and therefore a larger available labor pool, asking for lots of H-1Bs might attract more skepticism (and more potential angry people to assist legal action, if the unemployed get word).
 
2009-09-24 02:54:22 AM
OgreMagi: bobbette: OgreMagi: This particular line from the article should be repeated:

Despite 20% unemployment and cum laude engineering graduates who cannot find jobs or even job interviews, Congress continues to support 65,000 annual H-1B work visas for foreigners.

I am not anti-immigrant. But there comes a time when you have to say, fark 'em, we have serious problems at home that we need to deal with.

No, that's not true. The H-1B work visas have plunged dramatically during this recession according to a bunch of articles I've read lately.

Also, work visas tend to be to recruit skilled workers in fields where appropriate candidates for jobs are scarce. And they are very difficult to obtain and the fees are high. There are serious barriers to entry, much more so than other countries (like Canada.)

So, skilled engineers... come to Canada, where the beer is cold, and the winter is really cold, but we are not an economic basket case and we love immigrants, so we have that going for us.

After the tech bubble burst a few years ago they continued to give out H1-Bs to foreign tech workers even though there were plenty of highly skilled tech workers looking for work already here. I don't care if the number of H1-B workers is down. Why are there any when unemployment is so high?


Because many sectors don't have enough qualified workers.

The fact that there are unemployed people doesn't mean all those people can do the jobs that are available.

Look at the high % of people who aren't graduating high school or can't afford college.
 
2009-09-24 02:54:57 AM
OgreMagi: alostpacket: Heh, OgreMagi, myself and skullkrusher were just talking about this in another thread.

And that 20% rate is way higher than any of us believed, right? I figured 15% (true rate, not official rate).


Yeah, I wish he had posted his methodology though. 20% seems too high.


BLS Alternate rate (U6) as of Aug. '09: 16.8 %

U6 is:
"Total unemployed, plus all marginally attached workers, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all marginally attached workers.. "
 
2009-09-24 02:56:44 AM
Korovyov: bobbette: No, that's not true. The H-1B work visas have plunged dramatically during this recession according to a bunch of articles I've read lately.

Consistent, I think; the visas are still being offered, they're just not being as utilized (and in prior years, they were often all claimed within a ridiculously short time after they were available). There is simply less hiring (total, not just H-1B); in addition, one of the requirements is that the position is supposed to have been advertised and left unfilled by domestic labor for some time, IIRC. With high unemployment and therefore a larger available labor pool, asking for lots of H-1Bs might attract more skepticism (and more potential angry people to assist legal action, if the unemployed get word).


A professor told my class that there are lawyers that specialize in getting the preconditions for those visas met. It's all a dirty shame.
 
2009-09-24 03:00:23 AM
bobbette: Because many sectors don't have enough qualified workers.

The fact that there are unemployed people doesn't mean all those people can do the jobs that are available.

Look at the high % of people who aren't graduating high school or can't afford college.


If you look at the list of the jobs the DOL is approving for H1Bs you might reconsider that.

Ultimately no one wants to never use H1B, they just want the program to be reformed to do what it's supposed to, fill gaps like you describe. Right now I think too many get away with using it as a way to reduce costs.
 
2009-09-24 03:01:03 AM
relcec: A professor told my class that there are lawyers that specialize in getting the preconditions for those visas met. It's all a dirty shame.

It's my understanding that it's also not unusual to game the system by claiming to have many more openings than they intend to use, just for better odds in the lottery. Some businesses probably exist just as shells. And so forth.
 
2009-09-24 03:03:03 AM
Korovyov: relcec: I've read that when people fall off the unemployment benefit rolls their also not counted as unemployed any longer also. Anyone know if that's BS?

If you mean the U-3 rate that the media tends to report without actually calling "U-3" and that BLS headlines as "unemployment rate", what you claimed to read is bullshiat.

To quote the BLS themselves,

Is the count of unemployed persons limited to just those people receiving unemployment insurance benefits?

No; the estimate of unemployment is based on a monthly sample survey of house-holds. All persons who are without jobs and are actively seeking and available to work are included among the unemployed. (People on temporary layoff are included even if they do not actively seek work.) There is no requirement or question relating to unemployment insurance benefits in the monthly survey.


http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.faq.htm

Now please stop spreading that.


Well they do stop counting people who stop looking, though the reasoning behind dropping them is not entirely without merit.
 
2009-09-24 03:03:07 AM
Shouldn't the title read The Economy Is A Lie, Also

or The Economy Is A Lie, as well?
 
2009-09-24 03:05:40 AM
alostpacket: Ultimately no one wants to never use H1B, they just want the program to be reformed to do what it's supposed to, fill gaps like you describe. Right now I think too many get away with using it as a way to reduce costs.

Ding-ding-ding! You can get a cheaper engineer from over seas to come in, not say peep about it, cause if they lose their job it's so long.

/sister-in-law lives with such an engineer.
//he's making 70% of what my American born friends make for the same job.
 
2009-09-24 03:12:22 AM
meh
the author of the article also denies that the WTC was brought down by planes
(something about energy deficit, but who cares)

so, yah, not sure I really care about anything else he would have to say

on the other hand,
he did call for W's impeachment for lying about the reasons for iraq war

/conflicted
 
2009-09-24 03:18:03 AM
I like where this thread is going. Can we agree that big business isn't looking out for America and outsourcing of American jobs is bad?

/thin line, one step at a time.
 
2009-09-24 03:22:04 AM
And those numbers don't count the people who've had hours cut way back and lost health insurace/etc..
 
2009-09-24 03:24:03 AM
kevn357: I like where this thread is going. Can we agree that big business isn't looking out for America and outsourcing of American jobs is bad?

/thin line, one step at a time.


I doubt any business, big or small, is looking out for America.
 
2009-09-24 03:25:16 AM
TFA: The inflation rate, especially "core inflation," is another fiction. "Core inflation" does not include food and energy, two of Americans' biggest budget items.

Reporting core inflation as a sort of generic inflation is a crock of shiat, but core inflation does have its uses.

Food and energy prices are highly variable, and thus make the core inflation statistic more useful for determining long term trends and for making comparisons between different disparate times.

On the other hand, core inflation is completely useless for determining how much economic conditions suck for people right now (for any now), and anyone who uses core inflation that way needs a cockpunch.
 
2009-09-24 03:42:52 AM
relcec: kevn357: I like where this thread is going. Can we agree that big business isn't looking out for America and outsourcing of American jobs is bad?

/thin line, one step at a time.

I doubt any business, big or small, is looking out for America.


But business is America. How dare you.
 
2009-09-24 03:45:29 AM
"OpEdNews." I think I may have found my favorite oxymoron.

Thanks, subby!
 
2009-09-24 04:06:04 AM
NewportBarGuy

Lou Dobbs came close to hitting these points for awhile, but then some Hispanic stole his jelly donut or something and he went batshiat insane. Kind of how Perot was right about NAFTA and Ron Paul was right about Iraq, but they are both batshiat insane.

Lou Doobs still hits these points. He never went batshiat. He rightfully complains our vastly excessive legal immigration and especially illegal immigration.

In fact, they're related as immigration is one of the major factors that have pushed down wages and job security - it increases the number of people competing for the same jobs. Why do you think meatpacking went from paying a middle class wage in the mid-20th century to poverty wages today? Many liberals and lefties label any opposition to our enormous immigration as racist or anti-Latino etc., and you've bought into it. They thereby provide cover to greedy business folk who use immigration to reduce wages and job security. Of course, the lefties get something out of it too - jobs in government, academia, etc as poverty pimps over the immigrants and jobs "managing diversity", etc.

/ http://www.NumbersUSA.com
// http://www.FAIRus.org
/// Both fight H-1B visa abuse, which leads to unemployed and homeless IT workers as described in http://washtech.org/news/industry/display.php?ID_Content=5363
//// Lou Dobbs at http://loudobbs.com/ and (CNN) http://loudobbs.tv.cnn.com/
 
2009-09-24 04:13:18 AM
I wonder how many of the "left the job pool" people are couples that used to both work, but now only one of them works. Hey, only one working parent used to be the norm...when the economy's doing awesome, the other parent works too...when it starts sucking, well, meh, maybe you start thinking you can go back to housewifery/househusbandry since your partner's still doing fine.
 
2009-09-24 04:52:37 AM
5coyotes: I wonder how many of the "left the job pool" people are couples that used to both work, but now only one of them works. Hey, only one working parent used to be the norm...when the economy's doing awesome, the other parent works too...when it starts sucking, well, meh, maybe you start thinking you can go back to housewifery/househusbandry since your partner's still doing fine.

Now, SkinnyHead provides some stiff competition, but this might just be the stupidest troll ever.

Times are tough, so you decide to quit your job?
 
2009-09-24 05:02:48 AM
OgreMagi
Despite 20% unemployment and cum laude engineering graduates who cannot find jobs or even job interviews, Congress continues to support 65,000 annual H-1B work visas for foreigners.

So would you say that they are taking our jearbs? jarbs? jeaoeoeaoeoaeoeaoeoaoeaoeoaerbs?

'MERICUH!
 
2009-09-24 05:20:27 AM
Are one in five of your friends unemployed?

One in five of mine is.

That's all the math I need.
 
2009-09-24 06:25:00 AM
OgreMagi: and cum laude engineering graduates who cannot find jobs or even job interviews

As a liberal arts major, forgive me if I fail to have any sympathy.
 
2009-09-24 07:09:41 AM
bobbette: OgreMagi: This particular line from the article should be repeated:

Despite 20% unemployment and cum laude engineering graduates who cannot find jobs or even job interviews, Congress continues to support 65,000 annual H-1B work visas for foreigners.

I am not anti-immigrant. But there comes a time when you have to say, fark 'em, we have serious problems at home that we need to deal with.

No, that's not true. The H-1B work visas have plunged dramatically during this recession according to a bunch of articles I've read lately.

Also, work visas tend to be to recruit skilled workers in fields where appropriate candidates for jobs are scarce. And they are very difficult to obtain and the fees are high. There are serious barriers to entry, much more so than other countries (like Canada.)

So, skilled engineers... come to Canada, where the beer is cold, and the winter is really cold, but we are not an economic basket case and we love immigrants, so we have that going for us.


Canada loves immigrants as long as they are not poor or brown. America only takes from those two categories anymore.
 
2009-09-24 07:13:32 AM
"The American household of my day, in which the husband worked and the wife provided household services and raised the children, scarcely exists today."

How did people doing domestic services figure into unemployment?
 
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