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(Yahoo) Dumbass Oil analysts who predicted $200 oil last year, $25 oil then $100 oil this year now predict $55 per barrel oil. Seriously, people get paid for this?   (finance.yahoo.com) divider line 79
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2933 clicks; posted to Main » on 30 Jun 2009 at 9:16 PM   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»   |    Get this fabulous T-Shirt and impress the methane out of your friends! shirt it!



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aba
2009-06-30 04:34:15 PM
A broken clock is still right twice a day
 
2009-06-30 04:40:48 PM
headline gives headache.
film at 11.
 
2009-06-30 04:41:29 PM
Economic forecasting is one of the few jobs where you can be wrong 85% of the time and still make the big bucks.
 
2009-06-30 04:56:36 PM
submitter: Seriously, people get paid for this?

somebody has to give the speculators a reason to play.
 
2009-06-30 04:59:58 PM
I used to (really getting a kick etc). The problem is that oil economists can only work on the inputs and outputs based on supply and demand, known political, paramilitary and military activity and other such mundanities which ultimately gives you a likely 'value' of oil that you can then pontificate about the price of. What we cannot take into account are unknowns such as behind the scenes politics, sudden war, famine, plague, unusual weather and circumstances like last year when the commodities markets went mental for no reason anyone in the industry could predict or fathom. Once they'd done that, of course, it was easy to predict a crash but impossible to predict a top.

$50-55/bbl is considered bottom of the sustainability tree at the moment. I'd expect $70-80 because the point is to make a profit, but again, with huge grains of salt.
 
2009-06-30 05:50:18 PM
We are commodities brokers, William.


Now, what are commodities?


Commodities are agricultural products.


Like coffee, that you had for breakfast.



Wheat, which is used to make bread.



Pork bellies, which is used to make bacon,



which you might find in a bacon,
lettuce and tomato sandwich.



Then there are other commodities like...
frozen orange juice...and gold.



Though, of course, gold
doesn't grow on trees like oranges.



- Clear so far?
- Yeah.



Good, William.
Now, some of our clients are speculating



that the price of gold
will rise in the future.



We have other clients who are speculating
that the price of gold is going to fall.



They've placed their orders with us



and we buy or sell their gold for them.



Tell him the good part.



The good part is that no matter whether
our clients make money,



or lose money,
Duke & Duke get the commissions.



Well, what do you think, Valentine?



Sounds to me like you guys
are a couple of bookies.
 
2009-06-30 06:37:48 PM
Asa Phelps: Economic forecasting is one of the few jobs where you can be wrong 85% of the time and still make the big bucks.

Forecasting anything is a profession where you can do that. And hitting a baseball.
 
2009-06-30 07:02:44 PM
Dancin_In_Anson: Sounds to me like you guys
are a couple of bookies.


this
 
2009-06-30 07:09:59 PM
And everyone has a share.
 
2009-06-30 07:13:56 PM
Dancin_In_Anson: Sounds to me like you guys
are a couple of bookies.


I don't know what that's from, and that is probably reason for abuse, but did you have to post like Bauer?

As for oil, I have as much credentials as being right on financial predictions as these analysts, since I am almost always wrong, so I predict minimum $100/barrel oil by Christmas.
 
2009-06-30 07:38:30 PM
I'll go with $80 oil by Xmas
 
2009-06-30 07:41:08 PM
Seriously, people get paid for this?

Yeah. In oil furtures.
 
2009-06-30 08:27:34 PM
*shrugs*

Oil's well that ends well.
 
2009-06-30 08:43:59 PM
It's a shame canyoneer isn't a TFer. He could've gotten a 5-hour jump on telling us how stupid we all are compared with him.

Guess we'll have to wait until this hits the main page.
 
2009-06-30 09:20:08 PM
The key to understanding analysts is understanding that the root of the word "analyst" is "anal".
 
2009-06-30 09:21:02 PM
aba: A broken clock is still right twice a day

not if the hour hand is stuck but the minute and second hand work appropriately and are off by a significant margin.

/not good at math
//battery dies, concept over
 
2009-06-30 09:21:42 PM
Toshiro Mifune's Letter Opener: *shrugs*

Oil's well that ends well.



You're a gas, TMLO.
 
2009-06-30 09:22:56 PM
Economists and meteorologists are two groups of professionals who get paid to be wrong.
 
2009-06-30 09:25:40 PM
this one is usually just for GaryPDX but I'll make an exception:
i483.photobucket.com
 
2009-06-30 09:26:11 PM
Wash a few hippies and you'll have plenty of oil from their hair alone.
 
2009-06-30 09:26:22 PM

Hey whore, how much will oil cost next year?


Tree-fitty a barrel.


Okay, here's your paycheck. Good job.

 
2009-06-30 09:28:26 PM
Remember: these are only crude estimates.
 
2009-06-30 09:28:53 PM
www.scene-stealers.com
 
2009-06-30 09:29:25 PM
bu..bu..but OIL PEAK!!!!1!!
 
2009-06-30 09:31:01 PM
Political commentators get paid, too. Even when some of them have predictive records that are worse than chance.
 
2009-06-30 09:31:04 PM
Weather men get paid for their job too and that's pretty much just guess work, that's why the weather man is usually also the comic relief guy on the news.
 
2009-06-30 09:31:34 PM
Dollar weak, oil expensive. Dollar strong, oil cheap.
Pretty easy.
 
2009-06-30 09:33:29 PM
Oil's well that ends well. That's my crude attempt at getting a larf.

/meh
 
2009-06-30 09:33:29 PM
gas at $30 - $40 a barrel is good for everyone but terrorists and the countries that harbor them.
 
2009-06-30 09:35:31 PM
Of course, Phil Taylor, top ranked player by the Professional Darts Player Association, has received £639,513 for his skills with darts. Why wouldn't we expect the top ranked Oil Analysts in the world to receive prize money for winning tournaments?

/what's that?
//oil analysis isn't a sport?
///well sorry, some of us aren't as athletically gifted as Kobe
 
2009-06-30 09:36:00 PM
GAT_00: Dancin_In_Anson: Sounds to me like you guys
are a couple of bookies.

I don't know what that's from, and that is probably reason for abuse, but did you have to post like Bauer?

As for oil, I have as much credentials as being right on financial predictions as these analysts, since I am almost always wrong, so I predict minimum $100/barrel oil by Christmas.


Sounds good to me, Mortimer.
 
2009-06-30 09:37:10 PM
GAT_00: Dancin_In_Anson: Sounds to me like you guys
are a couple of bookies.

I don't know what that's from, and that is probably reason for abuse, but did you have to post like Bauer?

As for oil, I have as much credentials as being right on financial predictions as these analysts, since I am almost always wrong, so I predict minimum $100/barrel oil by Christmas.


Shall we make our usual wager?
 
2009-06-30 09:37:28 PM
Now that they're beginning to open up the Iraqi oilfields to international raping, my guess is that oil will continue to fall in price.
Unless it doesn't.
 
2009-06-30 09:38:36 PM
GAT_00: I don't know what that's from

That movie came out before you were born.
 
2009-06-30 09:39:23 PM
ScottMpls: Economists and meteorologists are two groups of professionals who get paid to be wrong.

Don't hate me 'cause I'm beautiful.
 
2009-06-30 09:41:23 PM
UMBELE UMBELE HA! HA! UMBELE UMBELE HA! HA! UMBELE UMBELE HA! HA!
 
2009-06-30 09:42:45 PM
For an oil price battle, roll 10xd20 for damage to the consumers... no saving throw.
 
2009-06-30 09:44:03 PM
If they actually COULD predict the price of oil, they'd keep it a secret and make a killing in the market.
 
2009-06-30 09:44:24 PM
It has been my opinion for awhile now that economists have no idea what they're talking about. They just hide their lack of knowledge behind really complex nonsense math.
 
2009-06-30 09:45:13 PM
debug: Weather men get paid for their job too and that's pretty much just guess work, that's why the weather man is usually also the comic relief guy on the news.

Actually, the local weatherman probably just reads what the NWS puts out nowadays - I doubt they do any forcasting themselves.

Well, that and the storm coverage - but that's reporting, not predicting.
 
2009-06-30 09:45:43 PM
Either way, it's a prediction of the size of the shaft they will be using to sodomize the consumers.

Make your bets and bend over.
 
2009-06-30 09:45:53 PM
cloud_van_dame: Dollar weak, oil expensive. Dollar strong, oil cheap.
Pretty easy.


Yea but the value of the dollar didn't double when oil fell. While I agree a lot of it is still due to manipulation.
 
2009-06-30 09:46:58 PM
The_Sponge: You're a gas, TMLO.

I PITY DA FUEL WHO SAYS OTHERWISE!
 
2009-06-30 09:47:00 PM
Control_this: If they actually COULD predict the price of oil, they'd keep it a secret and make a killing in the market.

Who's to say they're not? Feed some bad info to the public, trade accordingly and profit when your "prediction" is wrong.
 
2009-06-30 09:47:38 PM
MindStalker: Yea but the value of the dollar didn't double when oil fell. While I agree a lot of it is still due to manipulation.

Yes, and global demand also does have something to do with it.
 
2009-06-30 09:49:52 PM
Smokey the Bare: ScottMpls: Economists and meteorologists are two groups of professionals who get paid to be wrong.

Don't hate me 'cause I'm beautiful.


It's cuz you is wrong.
 
2009-06-30 09:55:29 PM
Oil prices have dick shiat to do with supply and demand.
 
2009-06-30 09:57:27 PM
Remember, the first part of analysis is anal. They know that one way or another, we're going to get it right in the ass.
 
2009-06-30 09:59:45 PM
I predict that oil will, at sometime in the near future, be priced at $65.32 per barrel. Also, barrels full of monkeys will be priced slightly lower at $64.56 per barrel.
 
2009-06-30 10:03:09 PM
These are my favorite map series:

www.weatheroffice.gc.ca

Looks intriguing, until you look at the second map, and check out the scale. What's that? oh gray is "not significantly better than chance". Nice.

Weather Forecaster: "I can has money now?"
 
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