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(Christian Science Monitor)   The Supreme Leader, once a revolutionary student himself, is about to be removed from his position by revolutionary students (Unlike those protesting, this thread can drink; discussion part XXI)   (csmonitor.com) divider line 1587
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13885 clicks; posted to Main » on 18 Jun 2009 at 9:27 PM (5 years ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2009-06-18 07:30:57 PM  
A lot happened today, and can be found under the header "18th of June", as well as the demands from protesters section, now with a video and speech from Mousavi.

The most discussed topic at the moment is tomorrow's prayers at noon, and what is going to happen exactly. There are many conflicting reports coming from all sides. The three most reported scenarios are:

1) Mousavi asked his followers through his twitter account
2) Mousavi reported on his facebook that the details of tomorrow would be given one hour in advance
3) Mousavi has announced that there is no rally tomorrow and will happen Saturday instead.

Currently we have no real way to ascertain what is true and what isn't. For sure, however, the Iranian certainly is spinning misinformation as fast as they can in order to confuse protesters and harm their cohesive effort for change. This is a good thing.

Things are not rosy for the Basij and there are increasing signs that they are starting not only to lose ground, but to fear for their safety. There are many reports that most Basij forces are now hiding their identities with masks for fear of reprisal. There are websites being created featuring images and often identities of Basij who have been violently repressing students, calling for actin to be taken against those men.

More can be read under the entries of the 18th and 19th of June.

I really am trying to cram the most relevant information and speculation only. Everything is updated as events unfold, especially the timeline and what will happen in the future. If you want to link this, here is the website, updated as the situation changes:

https://sites.google.com/site/tatsumairanupdate/

For those wondering, here is the current time in Iran

All twitter posts about the army being involved are false as I am writing this Warning, new twitter feeds are most likely government members trying to spread misinformation, ignore them! They have really stepped-up their efforts in the last day or so. Also, there is a handful of good twitter feeds, but please do not publicize their usernames, they are in enough danger as it is and they don't need more publiclity. Those in the know will c/p their entries. Major timeline overhaul, including what has unfolded in the last few hours.

Suppression of Dissent - The Players

Currently, there are either two or three maybe four groups who are suppressing the students on the ground that you'll read about throughout this thread:


1. The Basij
2. Ansar Hizbullah (which I will refer to as Ansar)
3. Lebanese Hizbullah (Unconfirmed but highly probable. Der Spiegel, based on a Voice of America report, says that 5,000 Hizbullah fighters are currently in Iran masquerading as riot police, confirming the independent reports. Many different independent reports and video point that way. Even in the last hours other independent twitter feeds have declared witnessing thugs beating on people while shouting in Arabic; I will refer to them as Hizbullah)
4. Lebanese Hamas (unconfirmed and doubtful. This rumour has been cropping up all day, with some of the most twitter feeds saying they had visual confirmation of Lebanese Hamas fighters along with Lebanese Hizbullah member. Take with a grain of salt, but it has been mentioned often enough, by sources generally always right, that it deserves of a mention here. I will refer to them as Hamas)

- The Basij are your regular paramilitary organization. They are the armed hand of the clerics. The Basij are a legal group, officially a student union, and are legally under direct orders of the Revolutionary Guard. Their main raison d'être is to quell dissent. They are the ones who go and crack skulls, force people to participate in pro-regime demonstrations, and generally try to stop any demonstrations from even starting. They are located throughout the country, in every mosque, every university, every social club you can think of. They function in a way very similar to the brownshirts.

They were the ones who first started the crackdown after the election, but it wasn't enough. While they are violent and repressive, they are still Persian and attacking fellow citizens. A beating is one thing, mass killings another.

- Another group was working with them, whose members are even more extreme, is Ansar. There is a lot of cross-membership between the Basij and Ansar, though not all are members of the other group and vice-versa. The vast majority of Ansar are Persians (either Basij or ex-military), though a lot of Arab recruits come from Lebanon and train with them under supervision of the Revolutionary Guard. They are not functioning under a legal umbrella, they are considered a vigilante group, but they pledge loyalty directly to the Supreme Leader and most people believe that they are under his control. They are currently helping the Basij to control the riots, but due to the fact that they are Persians and in lower numbers than the Basij, they are not that active.

- The Lebanese Hizbullah is a direct offshoot (and under direct control) of the Iranian Hizbullah (itself under direct control of the Supreme Leader) and cooperates closely with Ansar though Ansar occupies itself only with Iran's domestic policies, while Hizbullah occupies itself only with Iran's foreign policy unless there is a crisis like right now. However, Hizbullah has been called to stop violent riots in Iran in the past.

(the following paragraph includes some speculation based on reports from ground zero) Hizbullah flew in a lot of their members in Iran, most likely a good deal even before the elections in case there were trouble. They are the ones who speak Arabs and are unleashing the biggest level of violence on the Persians so far. Another wave arrived recently and there is chatter that yet another wave of Hizbullah reinforcements are coming in from Lebanon as we speak. According to Iranians on the ground, they are the ones riding motorcycles, beating men women and children indiscriminately and firing live ammunitions at students.

- The Lebanese Hamas is a branch of Hamas set-up in Lebanon. Like Hamas in Gaza, Hamas in Lebanon is directly under the orders of the Hamas council of Damascus known as Majlis al-Shurah. While it is surprising to hear that they might be involved, and as I said take these reports with a grain of salt until we get more confirmations, it is not illogical either. Iran has become the main benefactor of Hamas in the last years, branching out from only supporting Islamic Jihad. They now provide Hamas with the bulk of their budget, with advanced weaponry and training by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard. Not only do Hamas own them a lot, but if the Republic falls, Hamas finds itself in dire trouble. It is very likely that, at the call of Iran, the Majlis al-Shura would have decided to send fighters from their Lebanese Hamas branch along with Hizbullah fighters if it was requested of them.

Other Players

Decided to create this section in order to give a wider range of explanations for people who might not be too familiar with Iran's internal politics and structure.

The Police

Iran's police is not dissimilar to your run-of-the-mill law enforcement in other dictatorships, with the difference that they are not generally as brutal and repressive. This is because the Basij are generally in charge of these activities, meaning that Iranian policemen generally concentrate more on the law and order aspect of Iranian daily life.

Today, it is thought that the Iranian police numbers close to 60,000 members, in contrast with up to a million Basij members. This is one of the reasons why we hear much more about the plainclothes militia than we do about the police right now, the other being that the Basij and Ansar are much more willing to violently assault their fellow citizens than even the regular police force. This is not as much a testament to the decency of your average police officers as much as a damning report of what the Basij and Ansar thugs are like.

There are also subdivisions and extra-legal forces attached to the police force. The major subdivision would be the riot police (So-called Unit 110) who are actually much more violent than regular police officers, but also in much, much smaller numbers. There is also VEVAK, the secret police. Very little is known and confirmed about them, except their extreme tactics include murder, kidnapping and torture.

The Army

In Iran, there are actually two armies. They are divided between Artesh and Pasdaran.

Artesh is the regular Military apparatus of the Republic. Their numbers, including reservists, go up to a million members, but only half of them have received anything more than very basic training. As it is often the case in police states, there is very little known and confirmed about the structure of the Army itself.

They were created prior to the Iranian Revolution, in fact this army has existed in one form or another, and is a continuation, for more than 2,500 years. This is not as impressive as it sounds, however, as they often underwent drastic changes, there is no real links between the current incarnations, and the top echelons were most often purged when new rulers took power. In fact, in the last 100 years, those purges happened between two or three times, depending on the count, the last time centered around the time of the Islamic revolution, when most generals were forced to flee, killed, or killed while in exile.

Artesh took the brunt of the military casualties during the Iran-Iraq war, the army is considered to very nationalist and not extremely religious, which explains why they have declared their neutrality and refusal to repress the situation, as they see their purpose to defend the Iranian population.

Everyone agrees they will be the ultimate key to this Revolution when they finally decide to take a side, or alternatively force the Pasdaran to stay on the sidelines with them.

Pasdaran, also known as Iranian Revolutionary Guard

The Iranian Ground forces (I will focus on them, as the Navy and Airforce are currently irrelevant, will update if the situation changes) have been estimated between 100,000 and 130,000 units total. As always, truth most likely resides somewhere in the middle. They are, much like the Basij and Ansar, subservient directly to the Supreme Leader, and ideologically created in the spirit of defending the Islamic Revolution ideals and Republic, not Iran per se. They also control the Basij.

They are a child of the revolution, and they are more geared toward guerilla warfare than they are for military engagements. They are also the force responsible for training the various terrorist groups financed and supported by the Iranian government. They are fanatically devoted to the Republic through intense indoctrination.

The elite troops are called Quds. They are considered the elite of the elite, but they only number between 2000-6000, although rumours say that they are twice or three time as big. They are, however, rumours and quite unlikely.

Ultimately, the Revolutionary Council and the Supreme Leader will call on them if they think they are on the verge of losing power, however it is unlikely that the army will just stay on the sidelines if this happens.

The Guardian Council, formerly known as The Revolutionary Council

The Revolutionary Council was created by Ayatollah Khomeini shortly before the Iranian Revolution. Since then, they have sat as the real authority of Iran. The Guardian Council is made up of 12 Ayatollahs, and they are the ones who dictate every little facet of Iranian life, making the position of President mostly irrelevant, as they do not take any major decisions without first asking permission from Khameini and his cronies. They do not have any qualms about hiding this, as the head of the Council is called "Supreme Leader".

The very goal of this revolution has become not only to elect Moussavi as President, but also elect Grand Ayatollah Montazeri as Supreme Leader. GA Montazeri has been calling for a separation of Mosque and State, and transferring most powers of the Supreme Leader to the President, including control of the Armed Forces.

The Grand Ayatollahs

The Grand Ayatollahs are Shiite clerics who first attained the position of Ayatollahs and then, through their knowledge of Islamic Jurisprudence, attained a supreme position and are regarded as the most important voice in Shia Islam today. They center around the holy Shiite city of Qom, though some live outside Iran.


What will happen

Unless the army decides to intervene in the favor of the Council and to stop the early beginnings of the new Revolution, Ansar & Hizbullah members will be the ones doing the brunt of the killing and repression with Basij as a support while also protecting government buildings and try to do crowd control. The police seems to have for the most part disbanded in centers like Tehran according to all reports, including international media. If the police decides to come back, they will focus less on protection and crowd control, so the Basij will start to crack more skulls).

Currently, this is what is happening. Regarding the repression of dissent.

As for the political scene, the majority of Grand Ayatollahs who expressed an opinion on this have sided with the protesters/against the results of the election. They are GA Ardebili, GA Montazeri, GA Shirazi, GA Golpaygani and GA Sanei. The only Grand Ayatollah who has sided in favor of the election results is Khameini, who is also the Supreme Leader of the Revolutionary Council, and the facto ruler of Iran.

Timeline
note: I built this through both articles and twitter feeds, so I do not claim that this is a 100% factually correct representation of reality, but this is the general narrative.

14th of June - While the previous day had been witness to some protests, they were for the most part peaceful. However, as time grew the protests turned more and more violent. When the first spontaneous riots erupted, the first wave of violence was unleashed. The Iranian Riot Police was called in to support the regular police officers controlling the protests, and shortly after the Basij also took the scene, moving from a passive to active role of repression. The RP concentrated mostly around public buildings and streets while the Basij took position around student groups, especiallly universities.

- As things got more out of hand, more and more Basij troops were called in, as the police started dispersing. The riot police are less inclined (or, rather I should say the Basij are more inclined) to use violence so they retreated and leaving the place to the Basij. The repressive forces concentrated their assault mostly around the main Iranian universities, while the riot police were concentrating on protecting various government buildings such as the Interior Ministry. At least two people had been killed already.

- On the telecommunication front, this is when we started to hear more and more from twitters while videos were being freely updated to youtube (while youtube started to delete the more violent ones a few hours later). This is also the moment where the government realized what was happening, and ordered for the internet, phone lines and cellphones to be cut off, in order to avoid people communicating with the outside world.

late 14th, early 15th of June - This is the second wave of violent repression. At this point, violent riots had spread all over the main cities of Iran. The violence against citizens was not only the fruit of the Basij anymore, but also came from Ansar Hizbullah members. This is the point where firearms started being used. There were reports of a few murders but it was mostly fired in the air or on walls in order to scare away protesters in University dorms. It's also around the same time that the first reports and videos of an important number of non-Persian thugs shouting in Arabic and violently beating people with chains, clubs and electric batons (similar to cattle prods), which led to many speculating that lebanese Hizbullah members were now in Iran. Der Spiegel, through Voice of America, later claimed that 5000 Hizbullah fighters were passing off as Riot Police, validating the claims of many independent sources and twitter feeds.

- Universities have been the hotbed of protests, serving as a hub of anti-government demonstrations and preparations. 120 teachers from the Sharid University resigned in protest over the election results. Perfectly away of this, the Basij, Ansar and possibly Hizbullah members concentrated their attacks on University Dorms all over the country, storming them and beating students, destroying everything, especially computers.

- The end of the second wave came right before the beginning of the current manifestation. Things were getting quieter with only sporadic reports of dissenters being assaulted. Important to note: at this time. the Supreme Leader authorized the plainclothes militias to use live ammunition against the crowd if things were to get out of hands. By the end of the first two waves of protests, hundreds of people had been arrested.

midday, 15th of June - This brings us to the third wave, which just began around 12:30PM for those of us on the East Coast. Plainclothes militia opened fire on civilians protesting peacefully. Possibly up to 2 million protesters took the street. Chaos erupted in the streets, with reports of fighting all over Tehran and spreading over Iran as the news circulated. Pictures of people shot, some to death, finally surfaced and were published in the mainstream media. Violent and murderous repression has started. At least a twenty people had been killed at this by the end of the 15th of June.

- There is a major national crackdown on students, especially those with connections to the outside world going on right now. Students are fighting back in some areas. Telephones are being bugged and everyone twittering and sending videos outside of Iran are being rounded up. ISPs were shut down, government hackers are threatening people who twitter, and some of them have vanished in the last 24 hours.

- Eventually, the people started to fight back. First, they took over and burned down a Basij base, killing its commander. Later, a Basij shot a young man in the face in front of their HQ, at which point a policeman went to confront them. The Basij beat the policeman, at which point students stormed the compound, throwing molotov cocktails, burning it to the ground.

- During the night, the police entered certain neighbourhood to arrest public servants and force them to appear at tomorrow's pro-Ahmadinejad manifestation, but the people went out in the street and forced them out of their neighbourhoods. The Basij have kept on storming dorms. So far the reports are conflicting, but it appears that the death toll could be as high as 40 for the protesters, with two dead on the side of the repressive militias. This is the end of the third wave.

early 16th of June - Supporters of Moussavi have a manifestation planned for 5pm, Tehran time. Roughly the same number or more is expected to attend. People are dressed in black and told to protest silently.

- The pro-Ahmadinejad crowd however are planning a counter-demonstration at the very same place the supporters are supposed to gather at 3pm. Most agree that basically they are simply going to gather for a confrontation. Rumours are that they are taking position in buildings next to the parade and in bunkers to attack. Basij from all over the country are moving to Tehran and supporters are being bused from all over the country. A major showdown is expected to unfold.

- The crackdown on people using telecommunication is as strong as ever. Anyone with a laptop, camera or cellphone is attacked in the street by plainclothes militias. Tehran hotels are under lockdown to prevent the members of the foreign press not yet expulsed from reporting what is happening.

- As for the Iranian Government and different branches, there are rumours that many Army Generals have been arrested for plotting a Coup d'État, but this is still speculation at this point. The Supreme Leader has also called for a 10-day inquiry into the claims of fraud, but it has been widely dismissed as cosmetic. Moussavi and his supporters have rejected this, claiming that they want new elections. Khameini is now using the armed Basij as his own bodyguards, hundreds of them are surround him and his residence to protect from attempted assassinations. Ahmadinejad himself is in Russia right now, for a planned visit, and tries to pretend that everything is good as usual.

midday 16th of June to early 17th of June - The fourth wave of violence has started, and was expected to flare up very soon. It surprisingly was quite mild. Pro-Moussavi supporters said that there were even more people today protesting against the regime, though raw numbers are hard to get. If this is true, it means there are more than 2M protesters in the street right now. They are dressed in black and protesting silently and without violence so far. Other reports that only 250,000 were in the street, possibly scared by the Basij and propaganda.

- The Basij, surprisingly, did not attacking the march itself but rather assaulted dorms again. It looks like they are using the march as a diversion. In Tehran proper, 2000 Basij are waiting to storm the male dorm, and they are backed by IRG helicopters, which seems to send the message that the IRG has broken from their undeclared neutrality toward tacitely supporting the Regime.

- The crackdown on telecommunications is starting to suffocate all of Iran. As of now:

* Gmail and GTalk are shut down
* Yahoo is shut down
* AIM is most likely shut down
* Phone lines are down most of the time
* HTTPS and other such protocols are down most of the time
* Iranian ISPs have been shut down
* They are trying very hard to close down the Iranian connexion to twitter and giving proxies they control in order to track down people
* Cellphones and SMS are shut down
People are also receiving phone calls from the government saying "We know you were in the protests".

- Night fell on Iran, and the Basij were roaming, attacking passerbys at random. They had also surrounded dorms and stormed them once again.

17th of June - With the end of the fourth wave of violence, we have been in a wait and see mode. As of right now, there are many rumors involving clerics and Ayatollahs meeting in the Holy Shiite city of Qom and planning to overthrow Khameini, as well as reports that some in the Army plotting to overthrow the government, semi-confirmations from credible twitterers, but nothing concrete or substantiated so far. These would be extremely big development, so it's better to treat them with caution.

- Nothing much has happened on this day aside of that. There was another mostly peaceful march, with around 500,000 protesters in the street. The Basij and others are still roaming around and beating on the population, as well as dressing in green, destroying buildings and trying to pin the blame on the protesters in order to make them look like a bunch of thugs.

- There have been more than a hundred people arrested in their hospital beds and taken to prison. The number of prisoners right now is estimated between 1,000 and 10,000; possibly more. The Basij are now laying traps into hospitals themselves, trying to snatch up protesters there. There are also reports that they are taking dead bodies before they are identified, stuffing them in vans and leaving to undisclosed locations. Doctors have been setting up outside clinics and fighting back in order to stop the Basij from doing what they do.

18th of June - The protests show no signs of slowing down, and the fact that the government has been less violent so far and concentrating on discrediting the protesters instead shows that they are losing grip and painfully aware of all the attention given to what is happening right now, CNN notwithstanding. It's also a worrying step, because the moment they start feeling they are losing grip even more is the moment where they might begin to unleash brutal waves of violence again, much worse than what we've seen so far.

- Iran Human Rights reports that today alone hundreds of members of the opposition and known Reformists have been arrested, some of them tortured in the basements of government buildings.

- There is a (so far) quiet march going on, where all the protesters are dressed in black and mourning those who have died so far. The crowds are estimated to be as big as they have been for the last few days, so that puts them between 1,000,000 and 2,000,000 in Tehran alone.

- Khameini has agreed to a recount of 600 out of the thousands of ballot boxes, but this has been rejected by the opposition, who says that these elections are to be declared null and void, and that new elections have to be rescheduled. Khameini in return rejected this. There are reports that Mousavi went as far as saying that Khameini does not have authority to preside over the state of Iran anymore.

- As a sign of growing tension in the governmental apparatus, fist-fights were said to have broken out in Parliament over who to support, but it seems that the Parliament will ultimately back Ahmadinejad and Khameini to the end. The Interior Ministry has ordered a police investigation into the massacre of 7 civilians by a Basij firing in a crowd. There are also reports of police officers deserting their posts and joining the protesters, while others use their position in the police force as a way to warn protesters from incoming arrests or crack downs. The army is still silent. There are reports that the man who leaked results of the election giving Khatami winner and Ahmadinejad as losing in third position has been killed in a car "accident".

- The State TV has been turned into a full-blown anti-Revolution machine, constantly hammering on how evil the "thugs" who are smashing around private property are. Problem is that those thugs are in fact Basij dressed in green, but IRIB is reporting it as pro-Moussavi supporters. They have also been showing documentaries about the evils of the internet and how the US, UK and Israel are behind the protests. State Radio is not much better, with talking heads calling for the death of those evil thugs destabilizing the country at the behest of external forces. They have also issued false reports that Moussavi was "condeming the rioters".

- The Government has closed Iran to all foreign communication and coverage, according to many reports. It would also seem that the Iranian government has opened an account in the name of Ayatollah Khameini on Twitter. There are reports that senior aides to all reformist candidates have been arrested, but it has yet to be corroborated and this is not the first time we hear such reports.

- According to Reuters, Iranian prosecutors have warned of the death penalty for the rioters who are involved in violence. Islamic cleric have warned that not going to Friday's prayer service makes you worthy of the death penalty. It is unclear yet what isn't worthy of death penalty at this point if you protest against the regime.

- All the violence reported over Iran is now exclusively done by the Basij, Ansar and, if the rumours are true, Hizbullah and Hamas. The police have completely stopped participating in the repression of the population, and both the Army and IRG are standing still and not doing anything. This is good news, but the Basij are sadly not reducing the level of violence they are unleashing on the population, beating up everyone they can get their hands on. It continued all throughout the night and during the day, but due to the mass of people involved it seems that they are restraining themselves when it comes to the mass rallies, preferring to pick isolated targets.

- Universities have cancelled all exams all over the country, and a long list of rebel students was given to all universities and they have to report the students, who are to be arrested on sight.

- There have been a few confirmed cases of people threatened inside the United States for providing proxies for the revolution. Their details were available on the internet so they were passed around pro-Government forces. If you are helping this revolution, be careful to do so as anonymously as you can. It doesn't mean you are risking your life, but it could potentially result in harrassment or vandalism.

19th of June - The day has yet to begin in Iran as I write this (19pm EST), but today looks to be by far the defining moment of this week. Supreme Leader Khameini has called for Friday Prayers where he will be present. There are fears that the IRG has been called in support and that they will have a massive presence, which could possibly be a post-prayers trap. On the other hand, not attending makes the reformists enemies of Islam and worthy of the death penalty according to Khameini. Iranian prosecutors have also warned protesters that violence might be punished with the death penalty, according to Reuters. Supporters of Khameini are expected to flood Tehran from all corners of Iran on Friday, so big clashes are expected. As explained above, details are presently unclear as to what the protesters have planned for tomorrow.

- As the Basij, they are cracking down on the population as ever, roaming the streets, vandalizing both pro and anti-Mousavi targets while pretending to be pro-Mousavi forces and trying to crack down on all dissenters.

The revolution lives on. Long live the revolution!

Demands from the protesters

Today, Mousavi gave an important speech. Here's the video, and translation

"I have come due to concerns of current political and social conditions - to defend the rights of the nation. I have come to improve Iran's International relations. I have come to tell the world and return to Iran our pride, our dignity, our future. I have come to bring to Iran a FUTURE of FREEDOM, of HOPE. I have come to represent the poor the helpless the hungry. I have come to be ACCOUNTABLE to you my people and to this world.

"Iran must participate in FAIR elections, it is a matter of national importance. I have come to you because of the corruption in Iran. 25% inflation means IGNORANCE - THIEVING - CORRUPTION - where is the wealth of my nation? What have you done with $300 BILLION in last 4 years - where is the wealth of the nation? The next Government of Iran will be chosen by the people. Why do all our young want to leave this country?"

"I know of no creation who places HIMSELF ahead of 20 million of the nation. We are Muslims - what is happening in Iran's Government is a sin! This Government is not what Imam Khomeini wanted for Iran - I will change all this - This is the SEA of GREEN!!"


This is a major landmark. Here are the 7 demands that are distributed by pamphlets to protesters:

1. Dismissal of Khamenei for not being a fair leader
2. Dismissal of Ahmadinejad for his illegal acts
3. Temporary appointment of Ayatollah Montazeri as the Supreme Leader
4. Recognition of Mousavi as the President
5. Forming the Cabinet by Mousavi to prepare for revising the Constitution
6. unconditional and immediate release of all political prisoners
7. Dissolution of all organs of repression, public or secret.

Who is Grand Ayatollah Montazeri?

Ayatollah Montazeri is a pro-Democracy, pro-Human Rights Ayatollah who was at one point on the short list of possible successors of Khomeini, but became marginalized as he adopted what was seen as a too pro-Western, pro-Democracy stance.

Since the beginning of the Revolution, he has been one of the fiercest critics of the Regime, and one of the biggest proponents of women and civil rights for ALL Iranians, including much-maligned minorities like the Baha'is. In fact he goes further than the protections afforded to them under Sharia.

He is also a big critic of Ahmadinejad and has been seen for years as the best hope for Iran if he ever was to come to power, something that was unthinkable a mere week ago.

He has also come out with a statement saying that policemen who beat on protesters and follow orders will not be forgiven under Islam, and that even if the government cuts the lines of communication with the outside world, that it was too late and the truth was getting out

Links

For further information on the Basij, Global Security has a good article about the history of the Basij.

CNN has a good article where eyewitnesses describe the type of violence usually unleashed by the Basij.

Here is another good article from GS again giving more background information on the ruthless Ansar thugs.

BBC profile of Grand Ayatollah Montazeri

important: The Iranian government is looking for dissident twitterers, so if you have an account, change your location and timezone to tehran!

regarding the supposed numbers received by all three candidates giving Moussavi the winner and Ahmadinejad third with 7M votes: The only confirmation is an Iranian journalist. We don't have any external data confirming those numbers. 7M for Ahmadinejad seems quite low, so treat this as an unsubstantiated rumour for the moment
 
2009-06-18 07:34:25 PM  
Good, perhaps the thread will share a glass of scotch with you, Tats =P
 
2009-06-18 07:35:49 PM  
I can vote up now! This whole shebang has Totally changed my perspective of Fark. Waiting with bated breath for more updates.
 
2009-06-18 07:35:56 PM  
Ah. Troll Free Zone. Got to love the cover charge sometimes.
 
2009-06-18 07:36:00 PM  
dreadprophet: Good, perhaps the thread will share a glass of scotch with you, Tats =P

Why the hell not.

Here's looking up your old address.
Mr Mousavi sight may have been hacked by govt trying to stop Friday Rally. Many will go anyway. #iranelection #iranelections
OG
 
2009-06-18 07:36:04 PM  
Tatsuma:

Tats, At 2am UK time (just under an hour and a half's time) Al Jazeera will be airing audio interviews with some of the Iranian twitterers. I have a confirmation from an Al Jazeera address (in reply to me) and have a contact number if you wish to confirm. Would of thought it would be of big interest.
 
2009-06-18 07:36:18 PM  
Is there any way to get blood there from out of country?

Hospitals in Iran are running low and the doctors have been put on 24 hour standby.

Sounds like *they* at least are expecting things to get worse quickly.
 
2009-06-18 07:36:45 PM  
Once again, cheers to all your hard work, Tats.
 
2009-06-18 07:36:53 PM  
I don't even know what's going on anymore.
 
2009-06-18 07:38:00 PM  
KaelGotRice: I don't even know what's going on anymore.

Read the updates on Tat's timeline.
 
2009-06-18 07:40:00 PM  
Mr. Cabron: Ah. Troll Free Zone. Got to love the cover charge sometimes.

The Snackbottoms were more F*****g bareable than the crap on there.
 
2009-06-18 07:40:37 PM  
Along with PK, CFI, et al, I think Austinheap deserves some kudos for getting the proxy info out. IMHO
 
2009-06-18 07:40:38 PM  
roadmarks: KaelGotRice: I don't even know what's going on anymore.

Read the updates on Tat's timeline.


I have. I've been trying to keep up on the whole thing and swapped proxies while surfing Iranian websites if you know what I mean.

I got to go to work soon.
 
2009-06-18 07:42:15 PM  
+1 for the thread, + 1000 for the Fark logo, and +infinity for Tatsuma

Now, on to the title of the thread...i didn't go to the link. How credible is the analysis that Khameni is done?
 
2009-06-18 07:42:29 PM  
So... crunch time. This call for all to attend the Friday prayers is an anomaly.

It will be interesting to find out what Khameni says in his sermon. I don't subscribe to the 'IT'S A TRAP' business, unless he says, "Anyone who doesn't like what I'm saying must walk out now..." or something like that.

I suspect the guy believes he can wield the masses.
 
2009-06-18 07:42:34 PM  
Mr. Cabron: Ah. Troll Free Zone. Got to love the cover charge sometimes.

Well, not troll-free, but the TF trolls are usually more entertaining. They take pride in their work.
 
2009-06-18 07:42:47 PM  
KaelGotRice: roadmarks: KaelGotRice: I don't even know what's going on anymore.

Read the updates on Tat's timeline.

I have. I've been trying to keep up on the whole thing and swapped proxies while surfing Iranian websites if you know what I mean.

I got to go to work soon.


Lot's of concerns over Mousavi's website and whether it has been hacked or not. He told people NOT to go to prayers Fri. Now everyone is asking why, and why announce in the middle of the night (Tehran time).

This is where the great speculation is coming in right now.
 
2009-06-18 07:43:04 PM  
rppp01a linked the following article from The Independent written by Robert Fisk towards the end of the last thread. Somber read.

Link (new window)
 
2009-06-18 07:43:11 PM  
Can anyone translate PK's latest, please?

برادران و خواهران عزیز - بیمارستنهای ایران کمبود خون دارند - وظیفه شریهٔ همگی کمک رسانی فوری هست - #Iranelection - RT RT RThalf a minute ago from web
 
2009-06-18 07:43:24 PM  
+1 again Tats - i've thanked you before for your efforts in these threads, but am doing so again
 
2009-06-18 07:44:33 PM  
Loving the bands on the Fark Logos
 
2009-06-18 07:44:34 PM  
What the he'll is really going on with the rally?? Very confusing.
 
2009-06-18 07:46:15 PM  
Holy crow, the Maddow rundown gets right to the heart of it.
 
2009-06-18 07:46:34 PM  
ravenlore: +1 for the thread, + 1000 for the Fark logo, and +infinity for Tatsuma

Now, on to the title of the thread...i didn't go to the link. How credible is the analysis that Khameni is done?


He seems weakened -- but then this is all weak. If he'd left the networks on and fudged a run-off election, no problem. If ADJ hadn't come across as such a farking blowhard on the results and had acted like, "I am the president for all Iranians" instead of "I HAS MADAYTE!" ...

But certainly I think he's weakened, and the institute of the Supreme Leader is weakened also, because he stepped outside the law.
 
2009-06-18 07:46:45 PM  
Cheers all of you.

As I said in the other thread, I'm off for a revolutionary job, dinner of the people and proletariat-style shower, so if another thread is greenly, if someone could be kind enough to cut/paste my summary, I would appreciate it. Just try not to add anything, and to use "show raw html" before in order to keep the formatting.

Again, thank you so much for your kind words.
 
2009-06-18 07:46:58 PM  
Ender's: What the he'll is really going on with the rally?? Very confusing.

I think it's on (someone got served)
 
2009-06-18 07:47:18 PM  
Ender's: What the he'll is really going on with the rally?? Very confusing.

No one knows. There are a few reasons Mousavi might call off the rally, but the way in which it was done is causing many, many people to doubt that the info is actually coming from him.
 
2009-06-18 07:48:10 PM  
brigid_fitch: برادران و خواهران عزیز - بیمارستنهای ایران کمبود خون دارند - وظیفه شریهٔ همگی کمک رسانی فوری هست

Blood shortage.
 
2009-06-18 07:48:19 PM  
unlikely: Loving the bands on the Fark Logos

Oh shiat just noticed those too.

Awesome. I'm going to find a green ribbon to put on my wrist before work.
 
2009-06-18 07:49:14 PM  
roadmarks: Is there any way to get blood there from out of country?

Good point; that always is a need around here when there's a physical disaster. We know it's a need there with all the photos we've seen, but since the government, such as it is, is part of the oppressive force, it'd really be up to the Red Crescent (Red Cross presence in Islamic countries) to spearhead that effort.
 
2009-06-18 07:49:59 PM  
What is the best probable outcome out of all of this? Is it as good as a new Prime Minister and Supreme Leader by virtue of an overthrow, or just a new election that may be just as vulnerable to the same old same old? An internationally monitored election?

When all else has been done and said, what does it look like we are likely to see? (besides Mr. Oysterhead)
 
2009-06-18 07:52:47 PM  
 
2009-06-18 07:54:47 PM  
I haven't been posting in these threads at all, but I want to give a big *THANK YOU* to Tatsuma and everyone else who has been keeping the information flowing. My favorites list and ignore lists have grown exponentially over the last few days. Also, props to Drew and the modmins for the Fark/TotalFark logos!
 
2009-06-18 07:54:51 PM  
OG totally contradicts PK with regard to Friday (rally, does she not?

Tweet i'm referring to: Unless you SEE Mousavi say don't go, presume this is hack attempt on Mousavi facebook page. Go to rally FRiday. #iranelection
 
2009-06-18 07:56:32 PM  
unlikely: Holy crow, the Maddow rundown gets right to the heart of it.

Maddow is the most intelligent person on television right now. Also one of the best interviewers. She can cut to the heart of an issue and ask the key questions and not let the interviewee get away with brusing the questions off. And she doesn't have to bleat and blather at them like Matthews, Hannity, O'Reilly, etc.
 
2009-06-18 07:59:08 PM  
Tatsuma: Cheers all of you.

As I said in the other thread, I'm off for a revolutionary job, dinner of the people and proletariat-style shower, so if another thread is greenly, if someone could be kind enough to cut/paste my summary, I would appreciate it. Just try not to add anything, and to use "show raw html" before in order to keep the formatting.

Again, thank you so much for your kind words.


Have fun Tats.
 
2009-06-18 07:59:44 PM  
lmalave: Maddow is the most intelligent person on television right now. Also one of the best interviewers. She can cut to the heart of an issue and ask the key questions and not let the interviewee get away with brusing the questions off. And she doesn't have to bleat and blather at them like Matthews, Hannity, O'Reilly, etc.

American "journalists" in general are unable to figure out how to ask tough questions without sounding like shrills.
 
2009-06-18 08:00:30 PM  
From PK:
cannot reply to all our followers but pls be aware that all info we provide is 100% accurate - situation here is serious - #Iranelection
 
2009-06-18 08:00:32 PM  
JUST IN: 16 members of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard have been arrested for trying to join "the people's movement." Article shortly.8 minutes ago from web

En_Wikinews
 
2009-06-18 08:04:26 PM  
 
2009-06-18 08:05:56 PM  
JesusGaveMuhammadAFacial: Tatsuma's Timeline, as a Wordle Image (new window)

Like the Font.

Does anyone have any info about CfI, it's now been 14 hours.
 
2009-06-18 08:06:20 PM  
Khamenei tells Mousavi to toe the line over election or be cast out (^Times)

I guess this helps dispell the illusion that we're dealing with a genuine democracy. The Supreme Leader for Life has apparently chosen his hand puppet from this 'election' - same hand puppet as last time.

How will this play in the minds of the 50% of Iranians below age 30? (some say 70%) If you tell 50% of the people in your country that you do not value their opinion, at what point will they stop valuing yours?
 
2009-06-18 08:07:02 PM  
Wow, when did the green band appear on the fark logo??
 
2009-06-18 08:07:23 PM  
CfI lives!

Iran4:34AM, finally I managed to open the twitter page with gpass. FreeGate is down & most proxies are dead.half a minute ago from web
 
2009-06-18 08:08:12 PM  
Gsm136: JesusGaveMuhammadAFacial: Tatsuma's Timeline, as a Wordle Image (new window)

Like the Font.

Does anyone have any info about CfI, it's now been 14 hours.


1 minute ago from web:

4:34AM, finally I managed to open the twitter page with gpass. FreeGate is down & most proxies are dead.
 
2009-06-18 08:08:42 PM  
Anaxphone: CfI lives!

Iran4:34AM, finally I managed to open the twitter page with gpass. FreeGate is down & most proxies are dead.half a minute ago from web


Whew..
 
2009-06-18 08:09:58 PM  
Anaxphone: CfI lives!

Iran4:34AM, finally I managed to open the twitter page with gpass. FreeGate is down & most proxies are dead.half a minute ago from web


he's ok, that's a relief.
 
2009-06-18 08:10:25 PM  
CfI: @OC according to moosavi's Facebook account it has been canceled. I'm still trying to verify karoubi's position on this matter
 
2009-06-18 08:10:50 PM  
Anaxphone: CfI lives!

Iran4:34AM, finally I managed to open the twitter page with gpass. FreeGate is down & most proxies are dead.half a minute ago from web


Well thats a huge relief
 
2009-06-18 08:10:55 PM  
JesusGaveMuhammadAFacial: Tatsuma's Timeline, as a Wordle Image (new window)

I still think Hizbullah and Hamas are way overrepresented in the timeline (any mention is extraneous to the discussion, IMHO), but oh well, I guess it's his prerogative for being the one who has put so much time into this.
 
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