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(Christian Science Monitor)   CSM crunches the numbers in Iran's election, is left with a bad taste in its mouth (Iran Discussion XII)   (csmonitor.com) divider line 1549
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15676 clicks; posted to Main » on 16 Jun 2009 at 10:01 PM   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2009-06-16 10:08:00 PM
reposted from another thread:

One thing potentially frightens me, and I brought this up the other night.
What if someone outside interferes. The most obvious choices, at least in terms of resources, would be Russia or China. They've both already accepted the official election results. I'm afraid of Ahmadinejad or someone else getting desperate, and the Russians or the Chinese throwing into the fray.
I'm sure part of why Obama's been so diplomatic in the way he's been speaking to avoid antagonizing either of them, but what happens if the shiat hits the fan?
 
2009-06-16 10:08:00 PM
So... do we wear green tomorrow? What's the color of the day now?
 
2009-06-16 10:08:08 PM
hellphage: RT from Iran: I've learned something today. Americans DO care about the world outside America.Their media just doesn't. #IranElection

Saw that earlier... hopefully the few Iranians on Twitter will pass along our good wishes.
 
2009-06-16 10:08:16 PM
Talon: Sheesh, how many of these will there be?


What's the latest news over there? I don't know the twitters that are keeping people up to date.


Don't expect too much more news, most of our valued informants are trying to get some shut eye for a couple of hours.
 
2009-06-16 10:08:26 PM
Mentat: Cinaed: It's a snowy day in Hell.
Oh, and bacon showers are predicted in various places worldwide.

Jessica Biel just showed up at my door naked. What should I do?


Be very careful, make no sudden movements, and lure her into your domicile.

Oh, and we'll need pictures.
 
2009-06-16 10:08:26 PM
ZAZ
What they have not counted on, of course, is a group of people that they essentially think of, for lack of a better word, Westernized wishy-washy liberals, who never stand for anything, would actually be upset that this election was stolen in such a brazen way.

In Pakistan a couple years ago the government's days were numbered once well-off lawyers, rather than the usual suspects, started marching in the streets.


Actually, most revolutions.. from the French revolution the the American to the Cuban and so on... might have started on the lower ground, but erupt when the educated classes get involved.
 
2009-06-16 10:08:38 PM
I want to give a big shout out and a big thanks to Modmin, who have been on top of their game by giving us threads, handling the traffic and making sure that we are able to function through this historic moment.

Thank you, modmins.
 
2009-06-16 10:08:40 PM
God. Trying to figure out Twitter.

DAMN YOU, IRAN!
 
2009-06-16 10:08:49 PM
hellphage: RT from Iran: I've learned something today. Americans DO care about the world outside America.Their media just doesn't. #IranElection

Told you so...
 
2009-06-16 10:08:51 PM
AliasUndercover: 85% of the electorate voted!

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!

And I'm a male model...


Never underestimate the amount of people that get mad when unemployment is around 30%.

And never underestimate their rage when they feel their vote didn't count.

So... boxers, or briefs?
 
2009-06-16 10:08:55 PM
Aidan: goddamhippie: Anyone else having a real craving to visit Tehran if this all pans out the way we hope it does? I say we organize a field trip.

Definitely a visit to Tehran U.


Dude, ive been longing to get there now. let alone wait until its over

granted, a tall, pasty white irish/german new englander may not go over well.

man can dream though. Gladly take a baseball bat to the first baton wielding motorcycle i come across though
 
2009-06-16 10:09:11 PM
Wow, I don't know how you all folks get through these 12 threads, Farks' server must be getting hammered!

/Evelyn Wood, where are you when I need you?
 
2009-06-16 10:09:12 PM
Is it just me or since this event in Iran, people around the world are showing their true colors. Regardless if they are in Iran or not. People caring about people they have never met to the people who say they are no reason to care, and make fun of this situation. However, as a whole it is uniting people for the better. Hopefully the bad apples will not ruin the entire bunch.

/Hope that makes sense.
 
2009-06-16 10:09:20 PM
Cinaed: Fox News Channel

It won't last. I'll bet CNN comes out with a story talking about how they were forced by the Iranian government to keep their reports "fair". FOX is onto bashing Letterman again.
 
2009-06-16 10:09:24 PM
neppyman: AliasUndercover: 85% of the electorate voted!

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!

And I'm a male model...

Never underestimate the amount of people that get mad when unemployment is around 30%.

And never underestimate their rage when they feel their vote didn't count.

So... boxers, or briefs?


Depends...
/ha
 
2009-06-16 10:09:29 PM
rppp01a: Eh, why not:

In defiance of the ban on foreign reporters, The Independent's Middle East correspondent ventures out to witness an extraordinary stand-off on the streets of Tehran (new window)


Skimming. Excellent coverage. Note that it says 7 killed by Basij, not just "militants". He also mentions the buses. Finally seeing a reporter worth his salt.
 
2009-06-16 10:09:44 PM
Acharne: goddamhippie: Anyone else having a real craving to visit Tehran if this all pans out the way we hope it does? I say we organize a field trip.

Here here. It looks like such a wonderful country.

Some Farker once linked me to pictures of Iran that blew my mind. I doubt this is the same site, but I'll do you the same turn:

Link (new window)


Beautiful Pics I could have a great time with my DSLR there.
 
2009-06-16 10:10:03 PM
Thank you, Fark! I've been intently following these threads for the last few days (but haven't said much because I don't have much of substance to contribute). Thanks to FARK, I've been far better informed about this major event than I would have been otherwise, so thanks, all of you relaying us this information!

Especial thanks to Tatsuma, hero of 21st century journalism.
 
2009-06-16 10:10:12 PM
Relatively Obscure: God. Trying to figure out Twitter.

DAMN YOU, IRAN!


This has actually made me use my Twitter account for the first time in a long time. I've even downloaded Tweetdeck.

Thanks for the up to date info Tatsuma. Much appreciated.
 
2009-06-16 10:10:14 PM
Tatsuma, have you seen this article yet? Although it doesn't have too much information, I find it to be a nice condensed version of some of the power players involved in this situation.
 
2009-06-16 10:10:16 PM
Relatively Obscure: God. Trying to figure out Twitter.

DAMN YOU, IRAN!


It's deceptively simple. The problem is the amount of noise. It'll drive you nuts.
 
2009-06-16 10:10:18 PM
# Mohammadreza Jalaeipour son of Hamidreza Jalaeipour(Journalist/reformist) who is studying in UK was arrested today at airport #iranelection5 minutes ago from web
-from IRE
 
2009-06-16 10:10:20 PM
AliasUndercover: hellphage: RT from Iran: I've learned something today. Americans DO care about the world outside America.Their media just doesn't. #IranElection

Told you so...


Because right now there's no way to drive ratings with Iran compared to an anniversary show about Caylee Anthony.

Seriously, Headline News, fark you. I want to sic the Basij on your producers and Nancy Grace.
 
2009-06-16 10:10:27 PM
ScreamingInDigital: Cinaed: Fox News Channel

It won't last. I'll bet CNN comes out with a story talking about how they were forced by the Iranian government to keep their reports "fair". FOX is onto bashing Letterman again.


Well, the world will right itself in some ways, but I was astonished to actually see some of FNC's coverage of this whole event. CNN's as well.
 
2009-06-16 10:10:30 PM
Hoping to hear more from Hitchens on this but here's what he wrote the other day.

Don't Call What Happened in Iran Last Week an Election (new window)
 
2009-06-16 10:10:33 PM
Acharne: goddamhippie: Anyone else having a real craving to visit Tehran if this all pans out the way we hope it does? I say we organize a field trip.

Here here. It looks like such a wonderful country.

Some Farker once linked me to pictures of Iran that blew my mind. I doubt this is the same site, but I'll do you the same turn:

Link (new window)


Wow. Thanks for passing that on. Peter Jackson could have had a field day there if NZ didn't work out.
 
2009-06-16 10:10:34 PM
Thank you once again for everything, Tatsuma.

Need sleep but fighting it off so I can continue to read.
 
2009-06-16 10:10:34 PM
Lollipop165: Perfecto, thank you Textbook. I posted this again cause people should also think a little about why they relate

I actually was thinking 2 days ago that this is so interesting and riveting because revolution is in my blood culturally.
 
2009-06-16 10:10:39 PM
Lollipop165: ARRRRR!! I always post when it is ALMOST 1500 and then my farking post getst lost!!

But anyways...

Your Vacuous Texbook & RichieLaw

I think I figured it out. This wasn't an Earth shattering epiphany, but I figured out why I have such strong feelings for these Iranians.

What they are engaged in is the deepest root of my American culture. Now, I'm not saying this to denigrate what those Iranians are going through. I'm not even trying to imply that Americans are better, that we did this first, that they are trying to be like us.

What I'm saying, is that the Iranian attitude of protesting tyranny, yearning for freedom, wishing to have some sort of control over who their elected leaders are, is something I can understand. I don't know what it is to be Muslim, or live in the Middle East, or be raised in the strict confines of a theocratic society. But I know the pride I feel when I think of America's founding fathers and our flag, and those who died to make America what it is. I know what it feels like to care about something more than I care about myself. I know what it feels like to be a part of something wonderful and pure, that will exist long after I'm gone.

Maybe this is nationalist bullshiat, but this deep rooted feeling, this want for these brave Iranians to experience what I feel on a daily basis has created a kinship. I feel like they are my brothers and sisters. Now some of you may mock me, saying I've never dodged bullets or stood up to any kind of organized oppression, but I don't need to have been through that to know how thankful I am that I DON'T NEED TO GO THROUGH THAT.

I desperately want the same for these Iranians.

THIS.

Perfecto, thank you Textbook. I posted this again cause people should also think a little about why they relate.


Trying to put credit where credit is due, but that was all him (I just posted the THIS part), although don't get me wrong I completely agree with him.
 
2009-06-16 10:10:57 PM
I wonder what Armanidinnerjacket is thinking right now.
 
2009-06-16 10:11:01 PM
Trayal: Would love to have a rally here ins Salt Lake, but nobody i talk to here seems to realize what's going on, or care. :( Any local farkers to organizing something in the intermountain area?

[insert pic of Luke Skywalker]
I care.
 
2009-06-16 10:11:02 PM
hellphage: RT from Iran: I've learned something today. Americans DO care about the world outside America.Their media just doesn't. #IranElection

I'll take it.

If the Iranians remember that the people care, they'll work with us in the future.

/Fark Party Tehran 2010
//Willing to abstain from alcohol if that's what the hosts want
 
2009-06-16 10:11:17 PM
In the last thread, there was a Tweet that said that Amadinnerjacket has been sighted in Russia.

What REAL leader of a country bails out when everything's literally going to hell in your own country, pretending that it's just a soccer parade? Chickensh*t, no balled, yellow bellied scum.

I'd like to thank Tats and all myself-- fascinating as hell. Got NO work done today. WELL DONE!

RT from Iran: I've learned something today. Americans DO care about the world outside America.Their media just doesn't. #IranElection

We care more than you may ever know, brothers and sisters. Hang in there.


//viva!!
 
BOZ
2009-06-16 10:11:27 PM
I just wanted to remind everyone that there is an IRC channel up and running at irc://irc.freenode.net/iranelection

Or #iranelection on Freenode.net if the link doesn't work.

Lots of people in there now.
 
2009-06-16 10:11:29 PM
Tatsuma: I want to give a big shout out and a big thanks to Modmin, who have been on top of their game by giving us threads, handling the traffic and making sure that we are able to function through this historic moment.

Thank you, modmins.


here here!
 
2009-06-16 10:11:36 PM
2bits Quote 2009-06-16 10:04:13 PM
muck4doo: Hey Tats, don't mean to threadjack but I have a question. I plan on taking a trip to the Middle East next year, and have heard that Saudi authorities will deny you if they see Israel stamped on your passport. Are there other countries that do this as well? I plan on Visiting Egypt, Israel, Jordan, and Turkey. If all works out as hoped, maybe Tehran as well. :)

Let me know if you can. I'm planning my trip now, and need to know if I need to make Israel the last stop.

I have experience with that, they almost didn't let one person in our group because they thought they had a Israeli stamp. that was Yemen. but I would just ask them not to stamp your passport in Israel.


No plans for visiting Yemen, but Dubai does look interesting. I won't have to visit there though. :( If worst comes to worst I'll just visit Israel last. It doesn't look like Egypt, Jordan, and Turkey have a problem with it though.
 
2009-06-16 10:11:36 PM
Whatever, I got swallowed up by the previous thread. sorry about the repost but...


Not to douse the flames of all this revolutionary fervor (it is invigorating tbh) but has anyone considered the consequences of what is happening because of the instant propagation of information through unreliable sources on a scale like the past few days?

Not to rag on Tatsuma specifically, but let's use his work as an example.

Until recently his updates have been one directional. We have been receiving information and he has been displaying it to us in a condensed form. There is potential for information manipulation (albeit subtly) but it is not actually effecting the situation on the ground, just our perceptions.

Now, we have been informed that Iranian's are (reportedly) accessing his information document. If anything on the document is manipulated or misinterpreted information, it could very well be taken as fact in Iran due to the complete lack of a communication's network.

Taking another step forward, lets say that a news organization gets verification from an Iranian citizen of Lebanese Hezbollah troops in Tehran. That citizen ultimately received that information not from personal experience, but from network of "heard from friends" that ultimately sourced that information from Tatsuma's document.

If you think that it's impossible for one simple falsification to propagate to that point, think again: We have been following twitter posts for the past 4 days and basing our assumptions on a handful of unreliable sources. What makes you think it isn't happening the other way around? How many twitter posts have become news facts?

What we are seeing here is speed of information overtaking the speed at which an event occurs. Like an information sonic boom. The result of this is an information feedback loop in which the recipients of information have the ability to affect the content of what they are currently reading.

I always thought that Orson Scott Card was a Class A douche, but he really did hit the nail on the head with Enders Game (really all he has ever done imho). The potential for one, highly intelligent, highly motivated individual or group to change people's perception of what is reality using instantaneous information transfer is a very real possibility.

I would bet that this is already occurring, whether by accident or by intent, in this current situation.

*change tinfoil hat to realpolotik hat*

If Iran wanted to seriously diffuse this situation, they would open the information floodgates and let the reporters do their damn job. The propagation of falsehoods and misinformation throughout the entire situation is more of a threat to the Grand Ayatollah than any group of protesters. Sure, certain dirty facts might get out, but they will be the truth and that be addressed.

Fighting misinformation and rumors is harder than fighting fact.

*Takes off all hats*

In my humble opinion, this situation is a dangerous powder keg. All it takes is one simple piece of false information such as "The republican guard is running over protesters with tanks!" to become "legitimate" for the entire situation to go to hell.



Sorry about the TL;DR status of the post, but at least take the time to read it before immediately discounting me.

My 2c
 
2009-06-16 10:11:36 PM
Thought I'd put out my west wing inspired speech about this whole thing and america's role in it. or why we are so moved by this struggle:


I don't want to see their hope crushed. I don't want them to lose to a government that doesn't listen. I want to travel there someday. I want this to succeed so that they are treated like human beings again in the eyes of America and the West. To succeed, in a moment such as this, would be not just a victory for democracy and justice, but a victory for hope. A message to the world that shows that you can stand for what you believe in. You can fight for everything that is good and noble and get beaten down but at the end of the day, so help you, you will take back what is yours. You shall have your rights to life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness even if you get beaten down in the process.

There's too much suffering in the world to stand by. There's too much repression and hope for change that is fading with each passing day. There are people in the world that need this to work. That need to see that this can be done and will be done so that they themselves and their children and their children's children can have a future free from tyranny and oppression, and they'll know that they were part of it.

We are often criticized for being the world's police men and in some respects we should be. We should fight for what is right in this world, not what is in our interests. We shall help those in need with humanitarian aid and not expect repayment, only the hope that our actions can stem the tide of injustice. The Iranian people need not the help of the west or the guns and bombs that can be given to them from the US. What they need is the knowledge that there are those out there who believe that what they are doing is right. That it is not merely a matter of how long they have to keep at it but a question of how many of us look to them with awe.

The framers of our constitution would be proud of what is going on in Iran. On July 4th, 1776 when the Continental Congress declared the English colonies to be independent of the wrath of King George, they did not have the backing of other nations. They fought and they lost but they never gave up. Their resolve to right the wrongs of their oppressors was more powerful than the most powerful empire in the world. And they prevailed. They shook off the chains of tyranny and gave hope to millions of people since then that they too can do it. Now some of those people are listening again and they know the struggle they're facing is far from easy. Should they prevail, just as those measly 13 colonies did 233 years ago, then they too shall be a beacon of hope for millions of people the world over.

Tonight, many of us have witnessed the brutality of it all. The reality of just what this will take in order to succeed. Many more have seen first hand. Have had blood on their hands from the men they helped cross the lines. I can only hold back and watch as those with a simple idea of making their world a better place fight for what they believe. There are many of those who may not make it to see that dream realized, but the die has been cast. There is no turning back now. A better future for Iran awaits and its those men and women who will make that dream possible.

I tip my hat to them. Good luck and God speed to all those fighting for their beliefs

\read that with Martin Sheen's voice saying it. its rather moving
\\read that with Morgan Freeman's voice saying it, its rather funny
\\\gotta stop the West Wing bender, but i'm only in season 4...
 
2009-06-16 10:11:40 PM
Didn't the advance polling have Ahmadinejad winning 2 to 1?
The moderates are all in Tehran. The hicks in the sticks all like the guy in the polyester jacket.
 
2009-06-16 10:11:41 PM
somedude210: Aidan: goddamhippie: Anyone else having a real craving to visit Tehran if this all pans out the way we hope it does? I say we organize a field trip.

Definitely a visit to Tehran U.

Dude, ive been longing to get there now. let alone wait until its over

granted, a tall, pasty white irish/german new englander may not go over well.

man can dream though. Gladly take a baseball bat to the first baton wielding motorcycle i come across though


You think you wouldn't exactly be welcome? How about a white chick? Although to just shake the hands of these folks, I'd wear whatever they'd prefer me to wear.
 
2009-06-16 10:11:52 PM
iceberg theory: A history of Color Revolutions...

Very interesting read. Great work.
 
2009-06-16 10:11:59 PM
ZAZ: In Pakistan a couple years ago the government's days were numbered once well-off lawyers, rather than the usual suspects, started marching in the streets.

Different demographics. That said, I expect this to turn out with a less free Iran, not more. Those in power control the military (or at least large parts of it). Those in the streets are unarmed with no way to fight back once Iran's leaders decide to pull a Burma or China.
 
2009-06-16 10:12:03 PM
Cinaed: Mentat: Cinaed: It's a snowy day in Hell.
Oh, and bacon showers are predicted in various places worldwide.

Jessica Biel just showed up at my door naked. What should I do?

Be very careful, make no sudden movements, and lure her into your domicile.

Oh, and we'll need pictures.


OK, I'm leaving a trail of Reeses Pieces to my bedroom. Wish me luck.
 
2009-06-16 10:12:08 PM
All Drew has to do is change the main Fark image from purple/blue to green, and I'll sponsor 12 people for a month of Total Fark.

Sorry, the list is already made. Ask someone else.
 
2009-06-16 10:12:15 PM
Just created a Twitter account. Can someone email me the most reliable Twitter feeds? Email address in profile. Thanks.

/We should be careful to only email that to people whose Fark accounts are at least a few weeks old.
 
2009-06-16 10:12:21 PM
Oh god, watching BBC America. Oh, it's beautiful. An entire segment solely on the technology.


BBC Presenter: "If he's going to lie to you [America] about the election, he's going to lie to you about nukes, isn't he?"
 
2009-06-16 10:12:33 PM
whatshisname: Didn't the advance polling have Ahmadinejad winning 2 to 1?
The moderates are all in Tehran. The hicks in the sticks all like the guy in the polyester jacket.


who got final say over what numbers were used in the polling data
 
2009-06-16 10:12:41 PM
ScreamingInDigital: Cinaed: Fox News Channel

It won't last. I'll bet CNN comes out with a story talking about how they were forced by the Iranian government to keep their reports "fair". FOX is onto bashing Letterman again.


I can't see how this would benefit them at all; if Ahmaweddingsinger regains power, he would certainly cut CNN out of his allowed press coverage, and if the protesters turn everything upside-down, they'd be pissed that CNN chickened out and were mouthpieces of the oppressors while they were putting their lives on the line.
 
2009-06-16 10:12:44 PM
FTFA:
Farideh Farhi of the University of Hawaii, whose decades of studying Iran has included poring over data from Iranian elections, says the result was "pulled out of a hat." Here's why.
[...]
Ms. Farhi: My personal feeling is that Ahmadinejad could not have gotten anything more than 10 million. And I really do have the data from previous elections, each district, how they voted, each province, to make comparisons with these numbers that the Ministry of Interior have come out.
[...]
Secret Iranian government polls reported by Newsweek earlier this month estimated that Mousavi would win 16 to 18 million votes, and Ahmadinejad just 6 to 8 million. Those polls found that even the Revolutionary Guard and Iran's "vast intelligence apparatus seem to have come around to this position: a large majority of them also plan to vote for Mousavi," Newsweek reported.


but but but it was expected that Ahmadinejad would win! He really won, for serious!

As I've mentioned a few times, it really doesn't matter at this point if he won the election, because the real crime is what he's done since then to personal liberties.

...whenever any form of government becomes destructive to these ends, it is the right of the people to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new government...
 
2009-06-16 10:12:47 PM
From Twitter:

RT @austinheap: New ports people, please don't run NEW proxies on 80/81/8080/9090/3128, all these are blocked #Iran #iranelection

They're blocking port 80... they're getting really desperate
 
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