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(CNN)   ♫ Don't you know ♫ They're talkin bout a Revolution ♫ (Iran election/Revolt Thread Part V) (thread closed)   (cnn.com) divider line 1492
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8912 clicks; posted to Main » on 15 Jun 2009 at 9:54 PM (5 years ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2009-06-15 10:05:59 AM
Thanks everyone for keeping things so well behaved. One note, however, please do not use the threads here to encourage illegal activity. Thanks.
 
2009-06-15 08:31:34 PM
One more time please, mods. Need a new thread.
 
2009-06-15 08:32:56 PM
Tats, Thanks for all your great reconnaissance.

Tatsuma: This seems to be helping quite a few people, so I'll go ahead and repost it in every threads with some adjustments. Sorry, this has reached the level of TL;DR but I really am trying to cram the most relevant information and speculation only. Everything is updated as events unfold, especially the timeline and what will happen in the future.

Suppression of Dissent - The Players

Currently, there are either two or three groups who are suppressing the students on the ground that you'll read about throughout this thread:

1. The Basij
2. Ansar Hizbullah (which I will refer to as Ansar)
3. Lebanese Hizbullah (Unconfirmed but highly probable. Many different independent reports and video point that way. Even in the last hours other independent twitter feeds have declared witnessing thugs beating on people while shouting in Arabic; I will refer to them as Hizbullah)

- The Basij are your regular paramilitary organization. They are the armed hand of the clerics. The Basij are a legal group, officially a student union, and are legally under direct orders of the Revolutionary Guard. Their main raison d'être is to quell dissent. They are the ones who go and crack skulls, force people to participate in pro-regime demonstrations, and generally try to stop any demonstrations from even starting. They are located throughout the country, in every mosque, every university, every social club you can think of. They function in a way very similar to the brownshirts.

They were the ones who first started the crackdown after the election, but it wasn't enough. While they are violent and repressive, they are still Persian and attacking fellow citizens. A beating is one thing, mass killings another.

- Another group was working with them, whose members are even more extreme, is Ansar. There is a lot of cross-membership between the Basij and Ansar, though not all are members of the other group and vice-versa. The vast majority of Ansar are Persians (either Basij or ex-military), though a lot of Arab recruits come from Lebanon and train with them under supervision of the Revolutionary Guard. They are not functioning under a legal umbrella, they are considered a vigilante group, but they pledge loyalty directly to the Supreme Leader and most people believe that they are under his control. They are currently helping the Basij to control the riots, but due to the fact that they are Persians and in lower numbers than the Basij, they are not that active.

- (the following paragraph includes some speculation based on reports from ground zero) Hizbullah flew in a lot of their members in Iran, most likely a good deal even before the elections in case there were trouble. They are the ones who speak Arabs and are unleashing the biggest level of violence on the Persians so far. Another wave arrived recently and there is chatter that yet another wave of Hizbullah reinforcements are coming in from Lebanon as we speak. According to Iranians on the ground, they are the ones riding motorcycles, beating men women and children indiscriminately and firing live ammunitions at students.

The Lebanese Hizbullah is a direct offshoot (and under direct control) of the Iranian Hizbullah (itself under direct control of the Supreme Leader) and cooperates closely with Ansar though Ansar occupies itself only with Iran's domestic policies, while Hizbullah occupies itself only with Iran's foreign policy unless there is a crisis like right now. However, Hizbullah has been called to stop violent riots in Iran in the past.

What will happen

Unless the army decides to intervene in the favor of the Council and to stop the early beginnings of the new Revolution, Ansar & Hizbullah members will be the ones doing the brunt of the killing and repression with Basij as a support while also protecting government buildings and try to do crowd control. The police seems to have for the most part disbanded in centers like Tehran according to all reports, including international media. If the police decides to come back, they will focus less on protection and crowd control, so the Basij will star ...
 
2009-06-15 08:36:47 PM
Well, hopefully this will have a positive outcome with few casualties.

/watching and reading closely
 
2009-06-15 08:38:54 PM
tudorgurl: Well, hopefully this will have a positive outcome with few casualties.

/watching and reading closely


Agree, but I'm afraid the Iranian gov will crack down hard there Tuesday.
 
2009-06-15 08:41:02 PM
tudorgurl: Well, hopefully this will have a positive outcome with few casualties.

Already had a few, and that's a few too many. But I pray that the protesters can rise against Ahmadinejad. Enough anger, will to fight, and sense of justice, and they will be victorious.
 
2009-06-15 08:44:35 PM
tudorgurl: Well, hopefully this will have a positive outcome with few casualties.

Not if they really shipped in 5000 Hizbullah fighters from Lebanon who don't give a fark about Iranians.
 
2009-06-15 08:45:14 PM
LoadShark: Agree, but I'm afraid the Iranian gov will crack down hard there Tuesday.

I know. That's what's scary.

orbitalfreak: Already had a few, and that's a few too many. But I pray that the protesters can rise against Ahmadinejad. Enough anger, will to fight, and sense of justice, and they will be victorious.

Let's hope that if they do, they rise up and create a better government than what they have now. I also hope that our government (and other governments) stay the fark out of it and let the Iranian people deal with it themselves. We don't need to go in there and cock it all up by "helping".
 
2009-06-15 08:46:33 PM
what_now: tudorgurl: Well, hopefully this will have a positive outcome with few casualties.

Not if they really shipped in 5000 Hizbullah fighters from Lebanon who don't give a fark about Iranians.


Oh dear...let's hope they didn't.
 
2009-06-15 08:52:33 PM
I keep obsessing on this, and I'm sorry: LOCK UP THE FARKING MULLAHS! They can demonstrate and fight all day and into the night for weeks on end. Lock up those goddamned mullahs, disband the basij, tell Ansar to get lost or face the regular army, and have the IRG stand down. Call a constitutional convention and kick the clerics to the curb!

I just hope to god that someone is planning along those lines. Surely a few regular army people could be found to stage commando raids on the mullahs. They are the root of the rot. Remove them from command, neutralize their henchmen, and watch where the chips fall. There would be so much less bloodshed.

God, I'm an agnostic, but I'm praying for the Iranians, may Allah bless their souls. I pray they can achieve proper democratic government with minimal bloodshed. (Then I will mock them on fark when they find out how smelly democracy really is. It's like limburger cheese.)
 
2009-06-15 08:53:00 PM
 
2009-06-15 08:53:20 PM
tudorgurl: We don't need to go in there and cock it all up by "helping".

Absolutely. I'm not a fan of isolationism, but staying the fark out of other people's business is the right thing to do. I'm glad that Obama's comment about "hearing the youth" was said non-judgmentally. It's not endorsing or supporting a particular viewpoint, just stating that this particular viewpoint should at least be heard.
 
2009-06-15 08:55:09 PM
orbitalfreak: Absolutely. I'm not a fan of isolationism, but staying the fark out of other people's business is the right thing to do. I'm glad that Obama's comment about "hearing the youth" was said non-judgmentally. It's not endorsing or supporting a particular viewpoint, just stating that this particular viewpoint should at least be heard.

Yep yep.
 
2009-06-15 08:55:41 PM
LoadShark: tudorgurl: Well, hopefully this will have a positive outcome with few casualties.

/watching and reading closely

Agree, but I'm afraid the Iranian gov will crack down hard there Tuesday.


Tuesday is here now. Teh intarwebs tell me it's 5:23 AM in Tehran. (Do they have some funky 30-minute daylight savings? Why are they a half hour off from the hour, when I'm less than 10 minutes from it?)

Anyway, it's all going to start getting intense about the time I have to go to bed.
 
2009-06-15 08:56:38 PM
flavor of the month: One for the buckeyes (new window)

I'm an LSU fan, and normally don't care for the Northern brethren... but that's cool.
 
2009-06-15 09:00:17 PM
Hopefully this will be resolved before we run out of themed song lyrics for the headline.
 
2009-06-15 09:01:13 PM
Obnox: LoadShark: tudorgurl: Well, hopefully this will have a positive outcome with few casualties.

/watching and reading closely

Agree, but I'm afraid the Iranian gov will crack down hard there Tuesday.

Tuesday is here now. Teh intarwebs tell me it's 5:23 AM in Tehran. (Do they have some funky 30-minute daylight savings? Why are they a half hour off from the hour, when I'm less than 10 minutes from it?)

Anyway, it's all going to start getting intense about the time I have to go to bed.


I don't have to go in tomorrow so I'll be up a while keeping an eye on this. Insha'Allah there will be a good ending to this.

/Not a Muslim but still, God Willing.
 
2009-06-15 09:25:13 PM
C'mon mods, let's get a new one!!
 
2009-06-15 09:30:15 PM
what_now: C'mon mods, let's get a new one!!

Everyone be sure to vote.

*does a raindance for the modmins*

Hey-ya-hey-ho! Hay-ya-harry-ho!
 
2009-06-15 09:36:43 PM
(posted in other thread before it went to plaid)

Godsdammit, I can't keep up anymore. I'll check in after a bit, but I need something to get this out of my head for a bit. To tell the truth, I thank my lucky stars I have that opportunity, and I pray to whatever gods there are that the people of Iran get that opportunity soon.

Once again, Tats, bang-up job. suebhoney, the TF was because you're cool. I'm out for a bit.

/And Weaver95, good on you for your new site. Great reading and analysis
//"social networking", indeed
 
2009-06-15 09:52:18 PM
I hope change_for_iran is okay. Its been 15 hours since (s)he said they were going to the rally.


Still can't get any tweets from PK beyond her signing off on the 14th. or smileoftheclash....starting to worry about smile. actually enjoying his/her posts. TehranBureau hasnt updated in awhile either...maybe my tweeting thing is just gone haywire

nah, i'm still getting other posts

anyone else have any other tweets that have seemingly dropped off?

here's a tweetgrid of it, feel free to add your own: Link (new window)
 
2009-06-15 09:52:36 PM
*walks in, munching popcorn*

Hey, what's going on in this thread?

DEATH - DESTRUCTION - MAYHEM

*backs out slowly, whistling*
 
2009-06-15 09:55:11 PM
Where are the Sore Loserman signs?
 
2009-06-15 09:56:20 PM
important: The Iranian government is looking for dissident twitterers, so if you have an account, change your location and timezone to tehran!

This seems to be helping quite a few people, so I'll go ahead and repost it in every threads with some adjustments. Sorry, this has reached the level of TL;DR but I really am trying to cram the most relevant information and speculation only. Everything is updated as events unfold, especially the timeline and what will happen in the future.

Suppression of Dissent - The Players

Currently, there are either two or three groups who are suppressing the students on the ground that you'll read about throughout this thread:

1. The Basij
2. Ansar Hizbullah (which I will refer to as Ansar)
3. Lebanese Hizbullah (Unconfirmed but highly probable. Der Spiegel, based on a Voice of America report, says that 5,000 Hizbullah fighters are currently in Iran masquerading as riot police, confirming the independent reports. Many different independent reports and video point that way. Even in the last hours other independent twitter feeds have declared witnessing thugs beating on people while shouting in Arabic; I will refer to them as Hizbullah)

- The Basij are your regular paramilitary organization. They are the armed hand of the clerics. The Basij are a legal group, officially a student union, and are legally under direct orders of the Revolutionary Guard. Their main raison d'être is to quell dissent. They are the ones who go and crack skulls, force people to participate in pro-regime demonstrations, and generally try to stop any demonstrations from even starting. They are located throughout the country, in every mosque, every university, every social club you can think of. They function in a way very similar to the brownshirts.

They were the ones who first started the crackdown after the election, but it wasn't enough. While they are violent and repressive, they are still Persian and attacking fellow citizens. A beating is one thing, mass killings another.

- Another group was working with them, whose members are even more extreme, is Ansar. There is a lot of cross-membership between the Basij and Ansar, though not all are members of the other group and vice-versa. The vast majority of Ansar are Persians (either Basij or ex-military), though a lot of Arab recruits come from Lebanon and train with them under supervision of the Revolutionary Guard. They are not functioning under a legal umbrella, they are considered a vigilante group, but they pledge loyalty directly to the Supreme Leader and most people believe that they are under his control. They are currently helping the Basij to control the riots, but due to the fact that they are Persians and in lower numbers than the Basij, they are not that active.

- The Lebanese Hizbullah is a direct offshoot (and under direct control) of the Iranian Hizbullah (itself under direct control of the Supreme Leader) and cooperates closely with Ansar though Ansar occupies itself only with Iran's domestic policies, while Hizbullah occupies itself only with Iran's foreign policy unless there is a crisis like right now. However, Hizbullah has been called to stop violent riots in Iran in the past.

(the following paragraph includes some speculation based on reports from ground zero) Hizbullah flew in a lot of their members in Iran, most likely a good deal even before the elections in case there were trouble. They are the ones who speak Arabs and are unleashing the biggest level of violence on the Persians so far. Another wave arrived recently and there is chatter that yet another wave of Hizbullah reinforcements are coming in from Lebanon as we speak. According to Iranians on the ground, they are the ones riding motorcycles, beating men women and children indiscriminately and firing live ammunitions at students.

What will happen

Unless the army decides to intervene in the favor of the Council and to stop the early beginnings of the new Revolution, Ansar & Hizbullah members will be the ones doing the brunt of the killing and repression with Basij as a support while also protecting government buildings and try to do crowd control. The police seems to have for the most part disbanded in centers like Tehran according to all reports, including international media. If the police decides to come back, they will focus less on protection and crowd control, so the Basij will start to crack more skulls).

Currently, this is what is happening.


Timeline
note: I built this through both articles and twitter feeds, so I do not claim that this is a 100% factually correct representation of reality, but this is the general narrative.

- When the first spontaneous riots erupted, the first wave the Iranian Riot Police was called in, and short after the Basij also took the scene. The RP concentrated mostly around public buildings and streets while the Basij took position around student groups, especiallly universities.

- As things got more out of hand, more and more Basij troops were called in, as the police started dispersing. The riot police are less inclined (or, rather I should say the Basij are more inclined) to use violence so they retreated and leaving the place to the Basij.

- With the second wave of Basij also came Ansar Hizbullah members. This is the point where firearms started being used. There are reports of a few murders but it was mostly fired in the air or on walls in order to scare away protesters in University dorms.

- It's around the time of the second wave that the first reports and videos of an important number of non-Persian thugs shouting in Arabic and violently beating people with chains, clubs and electric batons (similar to cattle prods). The end of the second wave came right before the beginning of the current manifestation. Things were getting quieter with only sporadic reports of dissenters being assaulted. Important to note: at this time. the Supreme Leader has authorized these militias to use live ammunition against the crowd if things get out of hand (source: BBC)

- This brings us to the third wave, which just began around 12:30PM for those of us on the East Coast. According to all reports, plainclothes militia have opened fire on civilians protesting peacefully. Chaos erupted in the streets, with reports of fighting all over Tehran and spreading over Iran. Pictures of people shot, some to death, surfaced and were published in the mainstream media. Things very are ugly and this is spreading in other cities as well. Violent and murderous repression has started. At least a twenty people have been killed so far. Things will spiral down fast, and very soon.

There is a major crackdown on students, especially those with connections to the outside world going on right now. Some people report that the students are fighting back in some areas. Telephones are being bugged and everyone twittering and sending videos outside of Iran are being rounded up. ISPs were shut down, government hackers are threatening people who twitter, and some of them have vanished in the last 24 hours.

Later, the people started to fight back. First, they took over and burned down a Basij base, killing its commander. Later, a Basij shot a young man in the face in front of their HQ, at which point a policeman went to confront them. The Basij beat the policeman, at which point students stormed the compound, throwing molotov cocktails, burning it to the ground. This is very big.

Tomorrow

Tomorrow, supporters of Moussavi have a manifestation planned for 5pm, Tehran time. Roughly the same number or more is expected to attend. Plenty of twitter chat about dressing in black.

The pro-Ahmadinejad crowd however are planning a counter-demonstration at the very same place the supporters are supposed to gather at 3pm. Most agree that basically they are simply going to gather for a confrontation. Basij from all over the country are moving to Tehran and supporters are being bused from all over the country.

A major showdown is expected to unfold

The Supreme Leader has also called for a 10-day inquiry into the claims of fraud, but it has been widely dismissed as cosmetic. The Revolution lives on.

Links

For further information on the Basij, Global Security has a good article about the history of the Basij.

CNN has a good article where eyewitnesses describe the current violence unleashed by the Basij here

Here is another good article from GS again giving more background information on the ruthless Ansar thugs.
 
2009-06-15 09:56:34 PM
YES!!! In early for my 1.5 seconds of fame! Live free Iran!
 
2009-06-15 09:56:52 PM

sweet. 2 greens in one day.

POWER TO THE PEOPLE! FREE IRAN!
 
2009-06-15 09:57:11 PM
I've been lurking and reading when I can all day, but haven't had a chance to post. Just wanted to say thank you to everyone that's been posting updates all day. Would've had no clue what was going on without it.
 
2009-06-15 09:57:15 PM
Thanks again Tats. Informative as usual. :)
 
2009-06-15 09:57:17 PM
DFWPhotoGuy Quote 2009-06-15 09:54:57 PM
Tatsuma: In the last 6 threads, fellow farkers, we have a total of 11,000 posts about the Iranian revolution.

Farking awesome man. I may get around to making a I was their for all elventy iran threads badge tonight.

Not just eleventy, eleventy thousand, make sure you get it right.
 
2009-06-15 09:57:30 PM
 
2009-06-15 09:57:33 PM
Background on the Iranian Basij force: numbers, ideology, etc

After the war, the Basij was reorganized and gradually developed into one of the Islamic regime's primary guarantors of domestic security. Though poorly armed and trained, the importance of the Basij to the Islamic regime has increased significantly, and in the process its numbers have multiplied exponentially.

According to a former commander of the Basij, Brigadier General Mohammad Hejazi, the strength of the force in 2004 was 10.3 million. By 2007, its strength stood at 12.6 million. The current commander of the Basij, Hasan Taeb, told the semi-official Fars news agency on November 25 that the force now numbers 13.6 million, which is about 20 percent of the total population of Iran. Of this number, about 5 million are women and 4.7 million are schoolchildren.

At first glance, these figures appear impressive, given that a paramilitary force of 13.6 million is a formidable force for any country. But this figure is misleading and open to dispute. In fact the Basij may be able to mobilize no more than 1.5 million men and women of military age.

...

The backbone of the Basij comprises 2,500 Al-Zahra (for women) and Ashura battalions, numbering 300-350 personnel each. The IRGC aims to arm 30 percent of these battalions with semi-heavy and heavy weapons. However, all members of the battalions are trained to use light arms and rifles. Since Major General Mohammad Ali Jafari assumed command of the IRGC on September 1, 2007, the Basij have received extensive organizational and logistical support by the Revolutionary Guards that has enabled it to form 30,000 new combat cells, each of them 15-20 members strong, named Karbala and Zolfaqar. These units cooperate closely with the army of the IRGC.

The mission of the Basij as a whole can be broadly defined as helping to maintain law and order; enforcing ideological and Islamic values and combating the "Western cultural onslaught"; assisting the IRGC in defending the country against foreign threats; and involvement in state-run economic projects.

In terms of maintaining law and order, Basij members act as "morality police" in towns and cities by enforcing the wearing of the hijab; arresting women for violating the dress code; prohibiting male-female fraternization; monitoring citizens' activities; confiscating satellite dishes and "obscene" material; intelligence gathering; and even harassing government critics and intellectuals. Basij volunteers also act as bailiffs for local courts.


...

The Basij also plays a key role in preserving the political status quo. Although the constitution bans members of the IRGC and the Basij from involvement in politics, Basij support contributed to Ahmadinejad's victory in the 2005 presidential election. The Basij under the tutelage of the IRGC was also heavily involved in the March 2008 parliamentary elections, during which Basij and IRGC commanders openly backed Ahmadinejad's principalists (osulgarayan). In February 2008, Major General Jafari said that "the principlists are in control of the executive and legislative branches and, God willing, the judiciary will soon follow suit." Hasan Taeb, then deputy commander of the Basij, similarly stressed that Basij members should have a "maximum presence" in the elections.

Taeb, who is now Basij commander, said during this year's Basij Week that his organization will not interfere in next year's presidential vote. However, history suggests that both the IRGC and the Basij will ultimately follow the orders of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and senior clerics, given that the commanders of both forces firmly believe that political interference is justified on revolutionary grounds. An IRGC commander told former Intelligence Minister Ali Yunesi in early May: "We joined the [Revolutionary] Guards in order to interfere. During the [Iran-Iraq] War, we interfered in politics and we do so now because it is an act of revolution."
 
2009-06-15 09:57:36 PM
Boobies?
 
2009-06-15 09:57:51 PM
i44.tinypic.com

/Needed to be said... again.
 
2009-06-15 09:57:53 PM
Go, guys, go.
 
2009-06-15 09:57:57 PM
PSA: If you have a Twitter Account, log in and set your location to Tehran, Iran, and your local time to GMT +3:30.

It's not much, but it may obfuscate the actual Iranian Twitterers who are currently being hunted electronically by the government.
 
2009-06-15 09:58:01 PM
Thank you mods, thank you Tats, thank you Farkers.
 
2009-06-15 09:58:03 PM
Change your twitter location to Iran and your timezone to Tehran, GMT +3:30. Will slow down the gov't attempt to block people in Iran.
 
2009-06-15 09:58:22 PM
Twitter's rescheduling down time to help:

http://mashable.com/2009/06/15/twitter-iran-election/
 
2009-06-15 09:58:52 PM
Joe Six-Keg: (posted in other thread before it went to plaid)

Godsdammit, I can't keep up anymore. I'll check in after a bit, but I need something to get this out of my head for a bit. To tell the truth, I thank my lucky stars I have that opportunity, and I pray to whatever gods there are that the people of Iran get that opportunity soon.

Once again, Tats, bang-up job. suebhoney, the TF was because you're cool. I'm out for a bit.

/And Weaver95, good on you for your new site. Great reading and analysis
//"social networking", indeed


I saw ya ;)
 
2009-06-15 09:58:52 PM
Repost from last thread:

If you have a Twitter account, log in now and change your location and time zone to Tehran. Apparently, the Iranian gov't is sweeping Twitter looking for dissidents, and this will help obfuscate.
 
2009-06-15 09:58:59 PM
And we're gonna burn through ANOTHER thread!

wow. the last time we were this active was when Hillary conceded the election to Obama.
 
2009-06-15 09:59:00 PM
To be honest, if something does happen to the Iranian twitterers in peril, I think the posters on this site needs to shoulder some of the blame. In a lot of the earlier threads, these people were being publicly singled out again and again, and I suspect the news media is more likely to read Fark than do their own research (the fact that the same few people mentioned on Fark are mentioned on air...)

Criticizing Maddow after the fact is sort of ignoring the real issue.
 
2009-06-15 09:59:04 PM
Changing all 3 twitter account locations now...

Thanks for the heads up Tatsuma.
 
2009-06-15 09:59:05 PM
DFWPhotoGuy: Boobies?

Hokay.

www.iranian.ws
 
2009-06-15 09:59:07 PM
meh.....
/srilakanophile
 
2009-06-15 09:59:14 PM
BTW, thanks for new thread, mod(s). 1500+ posts does grind things down.
 
2009-06-15 09:59:33 PM
Weaver95: And we're gonna burn through ANOTHER thread!

wow. the last time we were this active was when Hillary conceded the election to Obama.


I wish I could have seen that
 
2009-06-15 09:59:36 PM
Robert1966

I think it's quite possible, perhaps even likely, that there is some involvement, but I think it will also prove irrelevant except for propaganda purposes - although I wouldn't imagine it was too relevant even there, because most people won't be too surprised if there is some "contribution." Frankly, i think it's likely to be essentially a gesture and not likely to influence the events overall very much at this, or any, stage. I think building it up is ill-informed, regardless of the fairly flimsy nature of the evidence being used at the moment
 
2009-06-15 09:59:39 PM
Uncof Interior Min. official Doc 2khameni stating true votes Mousavi:42M Karubi:13M AhmadiN:6M Rezai:0.4M http://bit.ly/FwUOi #iranelection

Lots of talk about this now on twitter, plus I saw (and subsequently lost like a moran) an actual news site report along the same lines.
 
2009-06-15 09:59:54 PM
OK, i'm out for the night for real this time.

Back in the morning(once i get to work to get nothing farking done again)
 
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