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(MyWay News)   Survey: Most economists don't know what the hell they're talking about   (apnews.myway.com) divider line 143
    More: Obvious  
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6060 clicks; posted to Main » on 27 May 2009 at 6:50 PM (6 years ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2009-05-27 03:59:08 PM  
My favorite professor of all time, a PhD economics, once told me the same thing.
They apparently just make stuff up most of the time.
 
2009-05-27 04:22:02 PM  
Right, and we're supposed to listen to you Subby?
 
2009-05-27 04:47:18 PM  
That's why I get all of my economic analysis from the Fark Politics tab.
 
2009-05-27 05:00:58 PM  
Most economists don't know what the hell they're talking about

Not true. They know what they're talking about, but they also know it is so complicated that what they are saying is complete bullshat. At least the good ones do.

Sensitive dependence upon initial condition FTW.
 
2009-05-27 05:24:01 PM  
Survey: Most economists don't know what the hell they're talking about

Oh, I dunno. That Jim Cramer guy I used to see on TV seems to have his finger on the pulse of the money issues. I say "used to see" because following his advice caused me to have to sell my television in order to buy food...But he sure seemed like a nice fellow overall.
 
2009-05-27 06:16:26 PM  
So what's the difference between me just making up crap on the spot and them doing it?
 
2009-05-27 06:50:49 PM  
Shh! That's my secret weapon.
 
2009-05-27 06:53:30 PM  
No shiat, huh?
 
2009-05-27 06:53:48 PM  
eddyatwork: So what's the difference between me just making up crap on the spot and them doing it?

You're not smart enough to get paid to do it
 
2009-05-27 06:53:50 PM  
eddyatwork:
So what's the difference between me just making up crap on the spot and them doing it?

The difference is that you and Submitter are making it up about economists making things up, while the economists are not.

/"There is only one difference between a madman and me. I am not mad." -- Salvadore Dali
 
2009-05-27 06:54:05 PM  
ne2d: That's why I get all of my economic analysis from the Fark Politics tab.


Well I do mine from the Business section

/snob
 
2009-05-27 06:54:06 PM  
"Oh, people can come up with statistics to prove anything, Kent. 14% of people know that."

--Homer Simpson
 
2009-05-27 06:54:17 PM  
As does anyone in the Obama admin
 
2009-05-27 06:54:18 PM  
Obamanomics? Is actually capitalism hiding in a socalist blanket.

Enjoy your capitalism, communists.
 
2009-05-27 06:55:01 PM  
BS. I think there are plenty of good economists out there. But like any profession, it also has its fair share of hacks and wannabe celebrities who want to get their name in print. I think economists are maligned simply because they tend to give bad news that no one wants to hear when the good times are rolling. That, or what they say is so wonkish that it's immediately dismissed as ramblings from an egghead.
 
2009-05-27 06:58:30 PM  
The easiest way to get ten answers is ask five economists.
 
2009-05-27 06:58:34 PM  
A story I read today:

Two economics students, Zeke and Pat, are walking through campus when they come across a steaming pile of dog shiat. Zeke says, "Pat, I'll pay you a million dollars if you eat that." Pat, desperately needing money for beer and tuition, agrees and forces himself to eat the feces. He asks Zeke, "So where's my million dollars?" Zeke replies, "Put it on my account," and they move on.

One week later, they come across another pile of dog turds. Pat says, "Zeke, I'll clear your account with me if you'll eat that pile of dog shiat." Zeke, happy to get the one million dollar debt off of his back, agrees, and wolfs it down.

They go to visit their economics professor and tell him the story. The professor says, "Congratulations. You've just increased GDP by two million dollars."
 
2009-05-27 06:58:45 PM  
If you put two economists in a room, you get two opinions, unless one of them is Lord Keynes, in which case you get three opinions.

Yes, predicting the future is difficult. Predicting the future with shiatty models and incomplete data - you might as well slaughter a goat and pick through it's entrails. You'll get the same level of accuracy.
 
2009-05-27 07:00:26 PM  
My favorites:

Peter Schiff
Mark Faber
Gerald Celente
Jim Rogers
 
2009-05-27 07:01:12 PM  
impaler: Most economists don't know what the hell they're talking about

Not true. They know what they're talking about, but they also know it is so complicated that what they are sayingpredicting is complete bullshat. At least the good ones do.

Sensitive dependence upon initial condition FTW.


Other than that, this.
 
2009-05-27 07:01:50 PM  
In other news, HURR.
 
2009-05-27 07:01:53 PM  
is it sex?
 
2009-05-27 07:02:49 PM  
eddyatwork: So what's the difference between me just making up crap on the spot and them doing it?

They are making an educated guess based on things like scientific method. The problem is that markets rarely move solely on Economic principles.
To me, it seems that Economic theory is closely tied into fields such as Sociology and Psychology. An Economist can't predict what will happen in every circumstance, but can predict what may help or hinder an economy, just like a sociologist can only predict what a society may do, or psychologist can predict what a person may do, not what they will do.
 
2009-05-27 07:03:24 PM  
Economics cannot be predicted because it is based on the reactions of mobs of humans, that can be easily swayed and influenced. The types of shifts and variations among situations, cannot be replicated with repeated similar stimuli. Chaos Theory works its magic again.
 
2009-05-27 07:04:21 PM  
or is magic theory working its chaos, hmm?
 
2009-05-27 07:07:20 PM  
I beat the S&P by 45%, last winter.

99% of financial analysts did not.

/losing my shirt, atm, like everybody else.
 
2009-05-27 07:08:59 PM  
bunner: I beat the S&P by 45%, last winter.

99% of financial analysts did not.

/losing my shirt, atm, like everybody else.


I have to be in the gym in 26 minutes.

99% of financial analysts do not.
 
2009-05-27 07:10:35 PM  
Bad_Seed: I have to be in the gym in 26 minutes.

Stating a streak of good business decisions, in a thread about... economics, hardly makes one a douchebag, ya know?

Douchebag.
 
2009-05-27 07:11:51 PM  
Dangl1ng: They are making an educated guess based on things like scientific method. The problem is that markets rarely move solely on Economic principles.
To me, it seems that Economic theory is closely tied into fields such as Sociology and Psychology. An Economist can't predict what will happen in every circumstance, but can predict what may help or hinder an economy, just like a sociologist can only predict what a society may do, or psychologist can predict what a person may do, not what they will do.


Wrong. They are not geniuses up against diffulct circumstances. They fail at the very basics. There are fully educated economists in charge of decisions like printing more and more money, borrowing from Social Security, driving a nation deeper into debt, etc. It's not as if the last century of presidents did all this stupid crap on their own, while slamming the door in the faces of brilliant economists and saying, "We don't care what you think! We're printing more money!"
 
2009-05-27 07:12:57 PM  
bunner: /losing my shirt, atm, like everybody else.

i would never go atm
 
2009-05-27 07:14:11 PM  
Squidgilum: Dangl1ng: They are making an educated guess based on things like scientific method. The problem is that markets rarely move solely on Economic principles.
To me, it seems that Economic theory is closely tied into fields such as Sociology and Psychology. An Economist can't predict what will happen in every circumstance, but can predict what may help or hinder an economy, just like a sociologist can only predict what a society may do, or psychologist can predict what a person may do, not what they will do.

Wrong. They are not geniuses up against diffulct circumstances. They fail at the very basics. There are fully educated economists in charge of decisions like printing more and more money, borrowing from Social Security, driving a nation deeper into debt, etc. It's not as if the last century of presidents did all this stupid crap on their own, while slamming the door in the faces of brilliant economists and saying, "We don't care what you think! We're printing more money!"


Long term economic fundamentals generally take a back seat, while short-term political pressures ride shotgun.
 
2009-05-27 07:15:19 PM  
i174.photobucket.com
 
2009-05-27 07:16:13 PM  
bunner: Bad_Seed: I have to be in the gym in 26 minutes.

Stating a streak of good business decisions, in a thread about... economics, hardly makes one a douchebag, ya know?

Douchebag.


If I had a dollar for ever farker who claimed to have beat the market by some huge amount or who claimed to earn be in the top few percent of earners, I'd be rich. But I've got no reason not be believe you and I really do have to be in the gym in 26 minutes.

What business decisions have to do with a return on equities, I fail to see, but I guess that's not important.
 
2009-05-27 07:17:07 PM  
I'd find that useful information if I didn't know that the American public only pays attention to the shiat it wants to hear anyway and ignores good advice if it doesn't jibe with their politics, personal beliefs (no matter how foolish), astrological sign, etc.

There were a few people telling us that housing was gonna go belly up sooner than later and that financial institutions heavily invested in said real estate were in deep shiat, but nobody wanted to listen while they thought the good times were rolling. People who said our economy was based on little more than wishful thinking were laughed at by most of the assholes telling us how much our economy sucks now.

Also, economic stats, like any other, can be interpreted any way you want. You can say: "Awesome, unemployment only went up by half of 1%, the economy's on its way to a recovery," or you can say, "Recession continues unabated as unemployment increases."
 
2009-05-27 07:17:09 PM  
on the other hand, you may be right
 
2009-05-27 07:17:25 PM  
Bad_Seed: If you put two economists in a room, you get two opinions, unless one of them is Lord Keynes, in which case you get three opinions.

Yes, predicting the future is difficult. Predicting the future with shiatty models and incomplete data - you might as well slaughter a goat and pick through it's entrails. You'll get the same level of accuracy.


This is not a global warming thread. Please stay on topic.
 
2009-05-27 07:18:39 PM  
Dangl1ng: eddyatwork: So what's the difference between me just making up crap on the spot and them doing it?

They are making an educated guess based on things like scientific method. The problem is that markets rarely move solely on Economic principles.
To me, it seems that Economic theory is closely tied into fields such as Sociology and Psychology. An Economist can't predict what will happen in every circumstance, but can predict what may help or hinder an economy, just like a sociologist can only predict what a society may do, or psychologist can predict what a person may do, not what they will do.


To paraphrase, on the spectrum between astrology and physics, the "social sciences" lie somewhere in the middle.
 
2009-05-27 07:18:51 PM  
Most economists wouldn't know how to run a donut store.
 
2009-05-27 07:19:00 PM  
smells_like_meat: Bad_Seed: If you put two economists in a room, you get two opinions, unless one of them is Lord Keynes, in which case you get three opinions.

Yes, predicting the future is difficult. Predicting the future with shiatty models and incomplete data - you might as well slaughter a goat and pick through it's entrails. You'll get the same level of accuracy.

This is not a global warming thread. Please stay on topic.


If we could predict the economy as well as we can predict the climate, there would never be another recession.
 
Ral
2009-05-27 07:19:25 PM  
It is generally in line with the outlook from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and his colleagues.

That guy needs to DIAF. Seriously.
 
2009-05-27 07:20:06 PM  
GoodHomer: "Congratulations. You've just increased GDP by two million dollars."

Thanks for that. I will claim that story as my own.

/[!citation needed]
 
Ral
2009-05-27 07:20:42 PM  
Two economists are looking in the window of a car dealership. One says, "I really want that car." The other says "Obviously not".

/demonstrating the concept of revealed preference
 
2009-05-27 07:22:41 PM  
velut: GoodHomer: "Congratulations. You've just increased GDP by two million dollars."

Thanks for that. I will claim that story as my own.

/[!citation needed]


It was in Oilweek Magazine.
 
2009-05-27 07:23:20 PM  
farkMcFark: Most economists wouldn't know how to run a donut store.

The rational consumer prefers chocolate long johns, fwiw.
 
2009-05-27 07:26:39 PM  
Burn! Burn it all down! Burn everything! Blood for the Blood God! Kyahaha!
 
2009-05-27 07:28:11 PM  
Good thing most people don't know what they're on about either.
 
2009-05-27 07:33:46 PM  
GoodHomer: It was in Oilweek Magazine.

Couldn't have been. I made that story up just now.
 
2009-05-27 07:35:06 PM  
This should have been very obvious when nearly none of them saw this economic crisis coming. I'll listen to the ones that did see this coming, and they say the government is making things much worse. It shouldn't be surprising that the government and media don't want to listen to the people that aren't calling for massive government spending.
 
2009-05-27 07:37:56 PM  
velut: GoodHomer: It was in Oilweek Magazine.

Couldn't have been. I made that story up just now.


It must be their time-traveling editor who went future farking and brought back the story.

They stole my shale-gas idea years ago.
 
2009-05-27 07:38:04 PM  
Let's see, my least favorite professor/class by far in college so far was my economics professor. He did know the subject, but had no idea what he was talking about when he said he knew how to be a good teacher. Among the many reasons he gave as to why he was such a good teacher: He's published over 500 articles in economic journals, he let us surf the web during class if we felt stressed about the subject (which he later got mad at us at), and he *SMILED* at students.

Oh and on top of that, he was Chinese. So we got to hear about how Marxism was superior to Capitalism! Oh joy...
 
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