If you can read this, either the style sheet didn't load or you have an older browser that doesn't support style sheets. Try clearing your browser cache and refreshing the page.

(CNN)   Despite a complete lack of supporting data, apparently the housing market has finally bottomed   (money.cnn.com) divider line 49
    More: Unlikely  
•       •       •

1316 clicks; posted to Business » on 25 Mar 2009 at 5:27 PM (5 years ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



49 Comments   (+0 »)
   

Archived thread
 
2009-03-25 05:33:07 PM  
Didn't they say this like... 2 years ago?
 
2009-03-25 05:36:47 PM  
CNN research department:

farm1.static.flickr.com

/hot like poo
 
2009-03-25 05:38:28 PM  
subby didn't even make it to the second paragraph:

The Commerce Department reported Wednesday that new-home sales rose almost 5% last month after hitting their lowest point ever in January. Economists were expecting a decline of about 3%
 
2009-03-25 05:44:04 PM  
When you can buy urban homes for 10-thousand dollars and suburban McMansions for 200-thousand or less, of course someone can finally buy, but it won't last and it won't get better for awhile.

I wonder if anyone has found evidence of homeowners walking away from their upside-down mortgages who then bought their own house when it went into foreclosure?
(cue the evidential response link).
 
2009-03-25 05:45:24 PM  
The Commerce Department reported Wednesday that new-home sales rose almost 5% last month after hitting their lowest point ever in January. Economists were expecting a decline of about 3%

You really need more than two datapoints to claim a trend.
 
2009-03-25 05:46:09 PM  
NOW IS THE TIME TO BUY!!!!
 
2009-03-25 05:52:20 PM  
Great Caesar's Toast: The Commerce Department reported Wednesday that new-home sales rose almost 5% last month after hitting their lowest point ever in January. Economists were expecting a decline of about 3%

You really need more than two datapoints to claim a trend.


I'm not the person in Obama's Commerce Department who reported the data. I'm just the guy rebutting subby's headline based on Commerce Department data.
 
2009-03-25 05:52:50 PM  
Its hard to track around here (NYC-Queens).

We didnt get hit as bad as the rest of the counrty, and the places that were hit the biggest were either the "Hot" areas like W.B. and Greenpoint, and places like Long Island City (3M for a condo in LIC, hahahaha OMGWTFBBQ!).

The other badly hit area are the places where there was a lot of predatory lending (Bushwick, East NY, St. Albans, etc).

The majority of the strong-holds (the villages, UES) and most middle-class areas (northern queens, SI, east BK), held up pretty well. I check sites like MLS often and prices have maybe only gone down a few percentage points overall.
 
2009-03-25 05:53:00 PM  
A dead cat bounce is not a time to buy.
 
2009-03-25 05:55:33 PM  
Didn't they say this like... 2 years ago?

Yes, I believe they did.

/Purchased home in October 2007. Oh, well.
 
2009-03-25 05:56:02 PM  
A dead cat bounce is not a time to buy.

You know how if you throw a cat into a canyon it'll bounce off the walls the whole way down? I think of it more like that.
 
2009-03-25 06:24:22 PM  
PowerSlacker:

I'm not the person in Obama's Commerce Department who reported the data. I'm just the guy rebutting subby's headline based on Commerce Department data.


No, you're not. When June sales are higher than Feb's, you and three other people will think that's data.

Here, what adults look at:

--That figure is down 41 percent from the same period a year ago.--

--The median sales price fell 18 percent from February 2008, the biggest year-on-year drop since records began in 1964--
 
2009-03-25 06:36:26 PM  
savage henry: PowerSlacker:

I'm not the person in Obama's Commerce Department who reported the data. I'm just the guy rebutting subby's headline based on Commerce Department data.

No, you're not. When June sales are higher than Feb's, you and three other people will think that's data.

Here, what adults look at:

--That figure is down 41 percent from the same period a year ago.--

--The median sales price fell 18 percent from February 2008, the biggest year-on-year drop since records began in 1964--


Adults are looking for a bottom, as indicated by the headline.

The bottom will occur long before year over year figures go up.
 
2009-03-25 06:41:13 PM  
PowerSlacker: subby didn't even make it to the second paragraph:

The Commerce Department reported Wednesday that new-home sales rose almost 5% last month after hitting their lowest point ever in January. Economists were expecting a decline of about 3%


Yes, subby did, and that is hardly supporting data for housing to have bottomed. Talk about farking cherry-picking.

PowerSlacker: I'm not the person in Obama's Commerce Department who reported the data. I'm just the guy rebutting subby's headline based on Commerce Department data.

Nice rebuttal. Let me know when housing prices start rising, Mr. Yun.
 
2009-03-25 06:46:51 PM  
no it hasn't. Idiots.
 
2009-03-25 07:01:01 PM  
wolvernova: PowerSlacker: subby didn't even make it to the second paragraph:

The Commerce Department reported Wednesday that new-home sales rose almost 5% last month after hitting their lowest point ever in January. Economists were expecting a decline of about 3%

Yes, subby did, and that is hardly supporting data for housing to have bottomed. Talk about farking cherry-picking.


I only read to that point, but subby stated a "complete lack" of supporting data. I agree, it's not much, but it does technically make the headline wrong.

Existing home sales were higher than expected as well, although I'm too lazy to look up month over month year over year data and it probably wasn't mentioned in the article - it does support the idea that it "might" have bottomed.
 
2009-03-25 07:01:55 PM  
Please. A lot of these home sales are just bargain hunters out scavenging up whatever they can. Let's see multiple month-over-month increases indicating some kind of trend before we finally say that the market has bottomed out.

Personally, I don't think the market has bottomed out yet, because we're not far enough into the next massive wave of foreclosures being caused by adjusting ARMs. The government is trying to hold foreclosures at bay right now, but more and more homes are moving into default status and could potentially be foreclosed. Unless something can be done to remedy that situation, when that dam finally bursts, home values will probably tank even more. And, of course, let's not forget about all of the long-term unemployed folks and the thousands upon thousands of people who are newly laid off each week. Every laid-off homeowner increases the potential for another default.
 
2009-03-25 07:03:42 PM  
From what I can remember about this news today, sales rose but prices continued to fall. So what defines the "bottom," sales or prices?
 
2009-03-25 07:08:51 PM  
Breaking news: People buy things more when they're cheaper!

Note: This does not prevent them becoming cheaper still.
 
2009-03-25 07:10:57 PM  
What's really cherry about this is that there are still over-leveraged insurance policies out there on CDOs that contain God knows what kind of crap.

So the government is attempting to keep these bombs from going off by preventing them from being triggered by mortgage defaults.

What needs to be done (within my pitiful knowledge) is for every entity that holds a policy that bets a CDO fails to be informed that their over-leveraged insurance contracts are illegal, null, and void.

.
 
2009-03-25 07:12:31 PM  
Fark Me To Tears: Please. A lot of these home sales are just bargain hunters out scavenging up whatever they can. Let's see multiple month-over-month increases indicating some kind of trend before we finally say that the market has bottomed out.

Precisely. We've not yet had a single MoM increase, and these farkheads are calling it the bottom. I would say that they're basing their opinion on shiatty and non-representative data.
 
2009-03-25 07:17:48 PM  
I am in Vegas - I don't think we hit bottom yet - but probably close. You can purchase now for far less than the cost of replacement. You simply couldn't build a lot of these houses for what they are currently selling for.

If you bought this month, and the value went down 5% or so, or stayed reasonable over the next year, you probably don't care a ton if you intend to stay in the house long term.

The catch is you have to have good credit to get the loan, which a lot of people here do not. Bad for them - good for me I guess.
I am looking to purchase soon with interest rates low, the tax credit, my loan payment will be lower than my monthly rent.
 
2009-03-25 07:20:13 PM  
Let's see. Standard 'prime' total debt ratio is 36-38% of gross? A couple working 60 hours a week between them at the upcoming minimum wage will make $23k?

At today's 4.75% rates, thus, you ought to be able to afford a $130k-$150k house at minimum-wage work (esp. if you've got the 30k for a 20% downpayment and decent credit).

Fortunately, I live in an area with lots of nice homes for much, much, cheaper than $130k. I'm not too worried about buying, given that.

Unfortunately, finding steady minimum-wage work is not a given. And, unfortunately, we're not even *allowed* to compete on wages with the rest of the world below that point. But, we can sure import stuff from people who make less than we're allowed to work for.
 
2009-03-25 07:37:56 PM  
What's all this about hitting bottoms?
 
Ant
2009-03-25 07:46:54 PM  
Oh good. I'm gonna go out and buy an investment property right now. Ka-ching!
 
2009-03-25 07:48:15 PM  
I sure hope it isn't the bottom around here (Southern California). Houses are still WAY overvalued; I can't afford a home despite pre-qualifying for a 400k loan and 20% downpayment in the bank. I'm not buying a condo for half a million dollars; sorry folks.
 
2009-03-25 07:53:50 PM  
I closed on a house 7 weeks ago and paid 45% less than it was worth in 2006, and about dead even with what it sold for brand new in 2001.

Like stocks, it's going to be impossible to perfectly predict the bottom. If you have the money, anything you buy now is going to be a good deal, even if the value dips a bit more in the next 18-36 months. And I'm getting an $8,000 tax credit for 2009, which is more than half of my downpayment.
 
2009-03-25 07:55:48 PM  
zodar99: I sure hope it isn't the bottom around here (Southern California). Houses are still WAY overvalued; I can't afford a home despite pre-qualifying for a 400k loan and 20% downpayment in the bank. I'm not buying a condo for half a million dollars; sorry folks.


Depends on where you are. I'm in the Inland Empire now and you can buy a really nice place for under $300K. If you're in LA, or any other really popular urban area, it's never going to go down as much because the demand will always by higher there. What I paid for my place here would still just barely get me a 1-bedroom condo back in my old neighborhood in Hollywood.
 
2009-03-25 08:01:50 PM  
Lawnchair: We're not even *allowed* to compete on wages with the rest of the world below that point.

cache.kotaku.com

"A strange game. The only winning move is not to play. How about a nice game of chess?"
 
2009-03-25 08:07:59 PM  
These market pumper's make me a lot of money.
I love them.
 
2009-03-25 08:20:47 PM  
Fark Me To Tears: Please. A lot of these home sales are just bargain hunters out scavenging up whatever they can. Let's see multiple month-over-month increases indicating some kind of trend before we finally say that the market has bottomed out.

Personally, I don't think the market has bottomed out yet, because we're not far enough into the next massive wave of foreclosures being caused by adjusting ARMs. The government is trying to hold foreclosures at bay right now, but more and more homes are moving into default status and could potentially be foreclosed. Unless something can be done to remedy that situation, when that dam finally bursts, home values will probably tank even more. And, of course, let's not forget about all of the long-term unemployed folks and the thousands upon thousands of people who are newly laid off each week. Every laid-off homeowner increases the potential for another default.


Not to mention that property taxes are bound to go up because most states can't balance a budget, energy bills are going up and could spike again, maintenance on a house could sink you if the house wasn't built right, gas prices could skyrocket again because they're hovering a good sixty cents higher per gallon then they should be, and on top of that is the other rates that haven't reset yet that are rumored to be higher than the last ones were. And this is ignoring the bad job market, the fact that nobody can really sell a house for what they bought it for, and who knows what is going to happen next.

Buying a house in the near future is a bad move unless you have a legendary guarantee that your job will go nowhere, will keep paying you money with raises, and promises that the neighborhood you build in won't go south and become an empty plywood museum. Oh, and you get good health benefits that will never, EVER fade.

Houses are just a bad thing to do right now, period.
 
2009-03-25 09:03:00 PM  
The Commerce Department reported Wednesday that new-home sales rose almost 5% last month after hitting their lowest point ever in January. Economists were expecting a decline of about 3%

So are they all fired? The 'Economists'? If I happen to add 2+2 and end up with 12 I feel it likely I'll be out of a job. Sure as hell won't be sitting at the CNBC desk spouting nonsense a week later. Add 'Economist' to the tarot card readers and diviners and call it a day. I'm amazed you can still earn a healthy living selling snake oil in this century.

And yes.. I am thicker AND wider.
 
2009-03-25 09:11:26 PM  
Lawnchair: A couple working 60 hours a week between them at the upcoming minimum wage will make $23k?...

At today's 4.75% rates, thus, you ought to be able to afford a $130k-$150k house at minimum-wage work (esp. if you've got the 30k for a 20% downpayment and decent credit).

Fortunately, I live in an area with lots of nice homes for much, much, cheaper than $130k.



Won't property tax in Kansas for a $150K house be about 5K/year?
 
2009-03-25 09:33:11 PM  
Dull Cow Eyes: Won't property tax in Kansas for a $150K house be about 5K/year?

No. About $2,000/year in Douglas or Johnson counties, a little lower elsewhere.
 
2009-03-25 10:26:06 PM  
Every time the property scum tell a lie God rapes a litter of kittens.
 
2009-03-25 10:29:17 PM  
Naked Hitler: Every time the property scum tell a lie God rapes a litter of kittens.

Aint that the truth. By the way, did you know that it's the BEST TIME TO BUY?!
 
2009-03-25 10:45:48 PM  
I think that with so many people being laid off over the past few months that, at least for a while, the # of foreclosures will go up rather than down. Credit is still frozen up, so many who want to buy houses are still unable.

More houses + continued lack of buyers = prices don't go up yet

/That's just my prediction though
 
2009-03-26 12:52:55 AM  
Here's my take:

1. The high-end market is dead.
2. The mid-end market is dead.
3. The bottom-basement garbage market is dead.
4. The low-end market is alive and kicking.

That is, houses below $200k or so with no obvious flaws are moving fast. Everything else is just sitting there. When I say "no obvious flaws", I mean it can't have any of the following:

1. Fixer-upper, unless the lot itself is valuable (very large lot in a prime location, ocean view, that sort of thing), in which case it might sell for the land value alone.
2. Be by a noise or pollution generator (by a major industrial or retail area, freeway, major street, railroad tracks, flight path to an airport, that sort of thing).
3. Be in a bad neighborhood.
4. Condos, duplexes, or other things with shared walls, except in very expensive areas.

Properties that fall in one of those categories are starting to not sell at any price. Those in the high and mid-end sections of the market will sell only if the seller is willing to make deep, deep price reductions.
 
2009-03-26 01:55:13 AM  
On my road trip yesterday I heard on ABC news that the new home building permits in the U.S. went up like 11% last month. That seems very suspect to me as people are having trouble moving homes as is.

It's a very odd paradigm. Some houses here (Vegas) are now going for as low as 80K while I saw an ad for a newly built home in my hometown in Montana going for $350,000. It's like bizzaro real estate market right now.
 
2009-03-26 04:40:19 AM  
This beauty of a book came out in early 2006, by David Lereah, Chief Economist for the National Association of Realtors.

In other words: how do you know when a realtor is lying? His lips are moving.

i40.tinypic.com
 
2009-03-26 07:54:54 AM  
2chris2: In other words: how do you know when a realtor is lying? His lips are moving.

I'll give realtors the benefit of doubt and say that they just don't have the slightest clue what they're talking about. They are typically way less qualified to provide market analysis than your typical man on the street. In fact, because of the obvious conflict of interest, it's safe to assume that probably the opposite of what they are saying is likely to be true.
 
2009-03-26 08:00:11 AM  
We've been looking in metro-west Mass. for six months now. Hoping for something around $250k, and everything we've seen has either been in a crappy area or needed ten thousand dollars worth of work, stat. Sometimes both. It's depressing. Apparently prices in these parts haven't dipped as much as they have in some places--not yet, at least.

Also, I keep hearing radio ads from the National Association of RealTORS. Does anyone know why they hit the "or" so hard instead of pronouncing it like normal people? It sounds entirely unnatural.
 
2009-03-26 09:27:02 AM  
Guntram Shatterhand: Buying a house in the near future is a bad move unless you have a legendary guarantee that your job will go nowhere, will keep paying you money with raises, and promises that the neighborhood you build in won't go south and become an empty plywood museum. Oh, and you get good health benefits that will never, EVER fade.i>

I guess it's a good thing my wife and I both work at a major federal contractor. We won't get rich here, but we'll never be poor either. Health beenfits are ok, but nothing to write home about. You'd have to really try to get fired from this place.

Anyway, we've found several houses in the $130-$140K range that are very nice, in nice neighborhoods (about 5-10 minutes outside the city). When I say nice I mean 2200+ sq ft, 4/2.5/2, complete kitchen remodel, full transfer of mineral rights (very big deal here), new carpets, A/C, windows, etc..

Between the fed giving us $8,000 back, a fixed 30-yr mortgage @ 4.65% (resulting in a cheaper PITI payment than our current rent) now is actually a great time for us to buy. Especially when you factor in that we plan on being here for 7-10 years at least.
 
2009-03-26 09:56:56 AM  
Fark Me To Tears: Please. A lot of these home sales are just bargain hunters out scavenging up whatever they can. Let's see multiple month-over-month increases indicating some kind of trend before we finally say that the market has bottomed out.

Personally, I don't think the market has bottomed out yet, because we're not far enough into the next massive wave of foreclosures being caused by adjusting ARMs. The government is trying to hold foreclosures at bay right now, but more and more homes are moving into default status and could potentially be foreclosed. Unless something can be done to remedy that situation, when that dam finally bursts, home values will probably tank even more. And, of course, let's not forget about all of the long-term unemployed folks and the thousands upon thousands of people who are newly laid off each week. Every laid-off homeowner increases the potential for another default.


Well, except for the fact that an ARM from five years ago should actually treat the borrower really nicely right now. All the major indices are very depressed so a 5 year old ARM just hitting adjustment right now looks like a smart buy. The value of the actual property on the other hand...
 
2009-03-26 11:27:18 AM  
Fark Me To Tears: Please. A lot of these home sales are just bargain hunters out scavenging up whatever they can. Let's see multiple month-over-month increases indicating some kind of trend before we finally say that the market has bottomed out.

There is also another group that wants to buy their first new home and had the cash saved up. Those deals happen in the last months stats because people start looking for a builder in mid Jan after the holiday season winds down.

Today I was talking to my landlord who just dumped about a million dollars into a 4 BR house thinking that the global housing problem won't happen in Australia. At todays rate thats about US$700,000 in an area where the average renter earns $50,000 a year and he has rented it for more than $3,000/mo.
 
2009-03-26 02:56:40 PM  
I will be entering the housing market in 2010. Wahoo!
 
2009-03-26 05:43:02 PM  
Real estate is very personalized. It may be the perfect time for some people to get in now as prices in most areas are not likely to fall further. But it is all about your needs. You cannot listen to someone selling real estate or the Board of Realtors because they just want to sell, always. You have to find where you want to live first, then work from that location to where you can afford based on reasonable factors like your income.

The subprime mess happened because lenders stopped being reasonable and loaned to anyone and people went crazy with easy money. The lenders were basing this on encouragement from the people who brought you CDOs. They wanted to make more CDO's full of any and all mortgages because people were buying those CDOs based on unreasonable assumptions. Those assumptions were then discredited by Hedge Funds peddlers who wanted to make money on the fall of real estate which then perpetuated the collapse. Hedge Funds deliberately caused the whole thing with rumors and SHOULD BE STOPPED!!!
 
2009-03-26 06:57:02 PM  
 
2009-03-26 08:28:17 PM  
reporting from Austin, TX.

We're shopping for a house. A realtor told us that at $200k and below, houses are selling fast, there's a lot of competition among buyers and he's had several clients who were bidding against another potential buyer.

Above that, and more so above $300k, it's still a buyers market.

No one seems to talk about how much pent-up demand there is. We've been waiting out the bubble and I think there are plenty of others who have also. Whether it's because they believed it would pop, or can now afford a decent house because prices have dropped, I don't know.
 
Displayed 49 of 49 comments



This thread is archived, and closed to new comments.

Continue Farking
Submit a Link »






Report