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(KBZK)   Fuel price analyst: "There's absolutely no reason why the price of gasoline should be as high as it is." Welcome to the party, pal   (montanasnewsstation.com ) divider line
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1978 clicks; posted to Business » on 15 Feb 2009 at 7:40 AM (7 years ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2009-02-15 01:43:36 AM  
FTFA: Even though prices are up at the pimps, gas is still a bargain compared to a year ago.

Freudian slip, or pure comedy gold? You decide.
 
2009-02-15 01:45:05 AM  
Crude is falling (<$35/bbl last I checked).

Gasoline is rising.

Name your reason.
 
2009-02-15 01:48:15 AM  
JacksBlack: Crude is falling (<$35/bbl last I checked).

Gasoline is rising.

Name your reason.


Gas taxes? I don't know, it seems really unreasonable, and it seems like we are getting screwed.
 
2009-02-15 01:48:20 AM  
Of course, for the past few years when I've been saying "Hey, it appears the law of supply and demand does not apply to gasoline," you were all telling me I was wrong. Maybe I should call myself an analyst.
 
2009-02-15 01:49:37 AM  
photos1.blogger.com

/oblig
 
2009-02-15 01:51:16 AM  

IronTom: Gas taxes? I don't know, it seems really unreasonable, and it seems like we are getting screwed.


It's definitely not gas taxes here, yet it's still up at least $.25 to $.30 a gallon in the last month.

We're just taking a hot dicking this time.
 
2009-02-15 01:54:54 AM  

Whamdangler: Of course, for the past few years when I've been saying "Hey, it appears the law of supply and demand does not apply to gasoline," you were all telling me I was wrong. Maybe I should call myself an analyst.


I remember all the corporate apologists insisting that the oil companies weren't up to anything even though gas prices were hitting $4/gallon. I can't wait to see how they excuse them from responsibility this time.
 
2009-02-15 01:56:59 AM  
The oil companies got used to insane profits, and did so real fast. That combined with their knowledge that we really would pay through the nose, and they're turning the heat back up. Again.

Hell. It worked before...

The Revolution, when it comes, is going to surprise the shiat out of some people on top ;)
 
2009-02-15 02:08:47 AM  
The economy is down and demand is down, thus prices have been driven up higher.

Or something like that.
 
2009-02-15 02:10:35 AM  
cambie: The economy is down and demand is down, thus prices have been driven up higher.

bizzaro economics
 
2009-02-15 02:10:55 AM  

Bucky Katt: I remember all the corporate apologists insisting that the oil companies weren't up to anything even though gas prices were hitting $4/gallon. I can't wait to see how they excuse them from responsibility this time.


Do you know how expensive it is to heat and cool a 50,000 square foot mansion?
 
2009-02-15 02:14:43 AM  
None of you assholes are going to be happy until the price of gasoline is 25 cents a gallon. For Premium. And stays that way permanently.

/shut up, already
 
2009-02-15 02:16:18 AM  

PacManDreaming: Bucky Katt: I remember all the corporate apologists insisting that the oil companies weren't up to anything even though gas prices were hitting $4/gallon. I can't wait to see how they excuse them from responsibility this time.

Do you know how expensive it is to heat and cool a 50,000 square foot mansion?


Actually, no I don't. My mansion is only 49,000 square feet.
 
2009-02-15 02:21:41 AM  
Stock prices and internal forecasts for profit/dividend levels is my guess.

Remember they made those forecsts when oil was about $100 a barrel. Now that the price of crude is down, as well as the amounts of fuel being bought are down also, the profit margin as a percent of production no longer fits the projections.

Meh.I'm sure we can bail them out somehow.
 
2009-02-15 02:39:12 AM  
The bigger question is why there isn't one gas supplier undercutting everyone else. If economics and the current price of oil would allow for significantly lower prices, how come nobody is selling it at the lower price? Collusion? Or maybe it is because most gas retailers are contractually obligated to purchase from their supplier and have no out to seek a lower price from somebody else. But that does not explain why independent stations have also seen a rise in gas prices. Something stinks here.
 
2009-02-15 02:48:57 AM  

sullyman: Something stinks here.


It's called a cartel. See OPEC for details.
 
2009-02-15 03:06:08 AM  
I'm surprised it's as low as it is.

You'd almost think that the monopolies are keeping the prices artificially low to keep the masses away from any crazy ideas, like cutting fuel consumption and supporting green technology.

Hey, if it's cheap, why worry about crap like global warming or whether the supply's going to ever take a dive and run out?
 
2009-02-15 03:11:20 AM  

whidbey: You'd almost think that the monopolies are keeping the prices artificially low to keep the masses away from any crazy ideas, like cutting fuel consumption and supporting green technology.


Or marching to Irving, TX, and depleting the supply of unused rope.
 
2009-02-15 03:32:09 AM  
JacksBlack: Name your reason.

The only reason: you don't have to hold crude oil or gasoline to bet on it.

Our gas in sitting in the middle of the ocean because it is, quite literally, cheaper to pay a boat to store it than bring it onshore. The people that have paid for the oil are betting that someone will pay more in a month.

As long as we keep paying higher prices, then their bet is correct. Once we stop paying it, they lose. If they run up the price like they did this past summer, then plenty of investors will lose.

Oil people are capable of bringing down the entire world economy, and they are still doing it. Real estate people are as well.
 
2009-02-15 03:50:20 AM  

PoopStain: Oil people are capable of bringing down the entire world economy, and they are still doing it. Real estate people are as well.


Exactly. So why are we not treating energy, or more specifically the monopolization and manipulation of energy to push an agenda and gain profit at the expense of the economy and the people, as a national security threat?
 
2009-02-15 04:07:41 AM  
Occam's Chainsaw: Exactly. So why are we not treating energy, or more specifically the monopolization and manipulation of energy to push an agenda and gain profit at the expense of the economy and the people, as a national security threat?

Did you not see the "stimulus" bill?

It's about 5% there. The rest of it is crap.

And I'm not talking about environment bullshiat. I'm talking about actual energy bills that get us off oil. They are hard to some by from either party.
 
2009-02-15 04:08:20 AM  

Occam's Chainsaw: Exactly. So why are we not treating energy, or more specifically the monopolization and manipulation of energy to push an agenda and gain profit at the expense of the economy and the people, as a national security threat?


Because if we did so, they'd threaten to take their ball and sell it to China or India instead and the price panics would shoot gas up to $6/gallon at least. Price controls only work even slightly if a good portion of the production is localized, as in Venezuela, and in the United States it isn't. We can't dictate their prices to them or they'll sell it to someone who will pay what they ask. It's not like the United States can go out and jack tankers full of oil for our gas requirements if OPEC decides to sell to developing nations, the Pacific rim, or Europe instead.
 
2009-02-15 04:12:11 AM  
In an additional problem, if we start trying to force lower prices of oil by manipulating the markets the other players in the market will probably threaten to go off the dollar trading standard. Foreign-held dollars that aren't useful anymore in market trading will be dumped back into the currency markets to try and buy whatever the new market standard is, causing massive inflation and devaluing the dollar significantly.
 
2009-02-15 04:19:21 AM  
It's unfortunate, but I think gasoline might just be too expensive for a monk to buy enough to douse himself with in protest these days. Any monks here that can testify?

Oh wait.
 
2009-02-15 04:22:07 AM  
Why is there all this discord and over-analysis when the price of gasoline is roughly two bucks a gallon?

Will you please fill your tank, shut the fark up, and thank whatever deity you believe in that it's not at last summer's $4+ a gallon?
 
2009-02-15 04:24:22 AM  

Drakkenmaw: In an additional problem, if we start trying to force lower prices of oil by manipulating the markets the other players in the market will probably threaten to go off the dollar trading standard. Foreign-held dollars that aren't useful anymore in market trading will be dumped back into the currency markets to try and buy whatever the new market standard is, causing massive inflation and devaluing the dollar significantly.


Pretty much this.

img10.imageshack.us


/However, if you remove some of the speculators, or change the rules on taking delivery you might not see the insane price spikes of last year as banks and investment firms were trying to hedge their failing housing plays with commodity trades.
 
2009-02-15 04:24:54 AM  
Norad, you're part of the problem.
 
2009-02-15 04:25:48 AM  

Drakkenmaw: Because if we did so, they'd threaten to take their ball and sell it to China or India instead and the price panics would shoot gas up to $6/gallon at least. Price controls only work even slightly if a good portion of the production is localized, as in Venezuela, and in the United States it isn't. We can't dictate their prices to them or they'll sell it to someone who will pay what they ask. It's not like the United States can go out and jack tankers full of oil for our gas requirements if OPEC decides to sell to developing nations, the Pacific rim, or Europe instead.


Our blue water navy, which just happens to outgun the rest of the f'n planet, begs to differ.

Seriously, if GlaxoSmithWellcomeKlinePfizerWhatever said tomorrow that they would withhold all vaccines from the US populace, they'd be dragged in the street and shot and their assets would be seized. Yet when the banks all but threaten economic collapse or the oil companies intentionally take a bad problem and make it worse in the name of profit, we roll over and lube up. WTF?
 
2009-02-15 04:37:36 AM  

Norad: Will you please fill your tank, shut the fark up, and thank whatever deity you believe in that it's not at last summer's $4+ a gallon?


But it could be once again that high, and my question is why the hell isn't gas that expensive? If I were Exxon, I'd be charging 6 bucks a gallon.

Windfall tax? Pfft. Nationalizing the oil industry? Whacked.

The last two years showed record sales and profits.

They've got us by the balls.

/doesn't own a tank to fill
//and thank god
 
2009-02-15 04:42:48 AM  

Norad: Why is there all this discord and over-analysis when the price of gasoline is roughly two bucks a gallon?

Will you please fill your tank, shut the fark up, and thank whatever deity you believe in that it's not at last summer's $4+ a gallon?


You've got to be trolling, but try this:

NYMEX Speculation (new window)
 
2009-02-15 05:12:03 AM  

Occam's Chainsaw: Our blue water navy, which just happens to outgun the rest of the f'n planet, begs to differ.


At which point we've sparked a world war because you thought our gas was too expensive. Way to go!

The Simpsons' "TRY AND STOP US" portrayal of Americans was a parody, not an ideal.
 
2009-02-15 05:19:38 AM  

Drakkenmaw: At which point we've sparked a world war because you thought our gas was too expensive. Way to go!

The Simpsons' "TRY AND STOP US" portrayal of Americans was a parody, not an ideal.


Bear with me; I'm sick, so my snark's not quite at full efficacy.

We can put a carrier group off the Malacca Straits and the Somali coastline and send every third tanker back to America under armed escort. We're not going to. Not in a million billion years. Not even if we make Tom Clancy president.

While we can't dictate prices, we can bust the current monolithic monopolies down into smaller bite-sized pieces. It's easy to collude when there's only 5 of you, much harder when there's 137.
 
2009-02-15 05:28:01 AM  
They just cut down refining it to keep the price higher...duhh

/tis true
//sadly I work in the industry and people are getting laid off left and right
 
2009-02-15 05:36:24 AM  

Occam's Chainsaw: While we can't dictate prices, we can bust the current monolithic monopolies down into smaller bite-sized pieces. It's easy to collude when there's only 5 of you, much harder when there's 137.


Honestly, collusion in the digital age is so retardedly simple that 4chan /b/tards can manage it. If it isn't the companies themselves doing it, it's an "industry group" representing them that'll do it. And if it isn't an industry group, it's cartels of nationalized producers doing it to make political hay for any number of reasons.

The best options right now for the United States is as follows:
1.) Remove oil from the commodities trading market in the United States. It's an international commodity that will still be traded internationally, and there's nothing we can do about that, but the sale and resale of commodities futures on oil is artificially inflating the final price by passing it through the hands of dozens of middle-men brokers between the point where it comes into the American market and the point where it is actually used for commercial sale.

Unintended consequence in the short run? Major market collapse during a recession, significant value destruction, leading to further deflationary pressures and economic strain.

2.) Invest in renewable, low-cost, diversified, and sustainable energy practices for transportation and electricity production. I'm a huge fan of hydrogen fuel cells as a fueling method specifically because they're source-blind as to how you make the hydrogen. Biofuel? Waste incineration? Hydroelectric? Wind? Solar? Who cares? Any of it can turn water into hydrogen, and so any of it can then be transferred into fulfilling transit needs.

Unintended consequences in the short run? Huge infrastructure costs and R/D bills, likely financed by deficit spending. Rough transitions from gas to hydrogen cars, fueling centers, etc. Legacy problems preventing full or complete transition. Think "digital broadcast TV" for a good analogue, and that's not even something as necessary for most people as transit.
 
2009-02-15 05:37:17 AM  

Drakkenmaw: is


are

Whoops.
 
2009-02-15 05:52:47 AM  

NewportBarGuy: Norad: Why is there all this discord and over-analysis when the price of gasoline is roughly two bucks a gallon?

Will you please fill your tank, shut the fark up, and thank whatever deity you believe in that it's not at last summer's $4+ a gallon?

You've got to be trolling, but try this:

NYMEX Speculation (new window)


taoofdan.com
 
2009-02-15 07:51:17 AM  
It's almost like gas is a limited resource, and oil producing companies and countries are trying to maximize their profits.

Damn commies... or something.
 
2009-02-15 08:06:10 AM  
Isn't the stock answer to blame the president?
 
2009-02-15 08:06:26 AM  
How did we get 30-some posts into this thread without someone mentioning refining? The refiners got farked in the A by the oil spike, not only having to pay inflated prices for crude, but seeing demand for their product shrivel up with people driving less. They finally got smart and cut enough production so that they actually had some margins on their remaining business.
 
2009-02-15 08:14:03 AM  
Should be wayyyy higher. $.50/gallon tax would pay for our yearly expenses in Iraq. So we need that for at least 6 years.
 
2009-02-15 08:36:43 AM  
Looking for "reasons" for prices is an example of what N.N. Taleb calls the "narrative fallacy".

Matrix algebra is a better way of looking at it than a "push chain" narrative, where A causes B, B causes C and so on .
 
2009-02-15 08:54:22 AM  
img5.imageshack.us

300MPG. Looks like a space ship mated with some sperm.

/wants
 
2009-02-15 09:31:18 AM  
Even though prices are up at the pimps

Best. Typo. Ever.

/ there goes breakfast all over my keyboard
 
2009-02-15 09:59:48 AM  

JacksBlack: Crude is falling (<$35/bbl last I checked).

Gasoline is rising.

Name your reason.


I'd say there are the following acceptable reasons.

Refineries are all taking an opportunity to retool their equipment, thus there is a reduced supply of motive fuels

Refineries are retooling towards other chemicals

Refineries/Retailers are locking in long term pricing in anticipation that gasoline will rise again, thus creating prices above the spot price.

Otherwise possibly collusion?
 
2009-02-15 10:05:32 AM  

CrazyCurt: Even though prices are up at the pimps

Best. Typo. Ever.

/ there goes breakfast all over my keyboard


you see, a pimp's love is very different from that of a square.
 
2009-02-15 10:19:20 AM  

JacksBlack: Crude is falling (<$35/bbl last I checked).

Gasoline is rising.

Name your reason.


When demand crashed, so did gas prices. But because the prices were falling so fast, people were reluctant to buy more than they needed right then, because the price would be cheaper in the next few days. When the prices hit the floor, people started filling up again, instead of buy just a couple of gallons at a time, and the prices began creeping upward to meet the true level of demand.

Simple and honest.
 
2009-02-15 10:32:44 AM  

Larry Mahnken: Simple and honest.


and wrong.

there are two things here: 1) I took the time last June to run two lists. 1 list was the price of crude oil from 2001 to present, and 2) the average price of gas at the pump.

now, my findings presented that there was a general margin used, somewhere in the neighborhood of 4.5%. It was reduced to about 3% in June, and it was highest after Katrina at 6%. So, this increase has nothing to do whatsoever with supply/demand, it has everything to do with a deflating commodity raising it's margin... because it can.

also, supply/demand is as far detached from the actual pricing it is sickening. we had larger supplies in 2007, but the price continued to go up while demand continued to go down
 
2009-02-15 10:35:51 AM  
It's obviously because the republitards are in control of both the presidency and congress. Big oil knows their boys are in charge and they can get away with anything they want...

/wait...what?
 
2009-02-15 11:01:22 AM  

Bob Dolemite: now, my findings presented that there was a general margin used, somewhere in the neighborhood of 4.5%. It was reduced to about 3% in June, and it was highest after Katrina at 6%. So, this increase has nothing to do whatsoever with supply/demand, it has everything to do with a deflating commodity raising it's margin... because it can.


I'm very interested in this. What's the current margin?
 
2009-02-15 11:04:20 AM  
I'm just laughing at all the people who were going "ZOMG gas will reach $8 a gallon by the end of the year!!!!" last summer.
 
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