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(The Atlantic)   Think the recession is bad in the West? Japan is contracting at a double digit rate, South Korea is losing jobs, Taiwan's dollar is crashing, and China is so bad a revolution might come soon. 2009 - it's gonna be a hell of a year   (andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com ) divider line
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3923 clicks; posted to Politics » on 10 Feb 2009 at 7:55 PM (7 years ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2009-02-10 05:27:50 PM  
There has to be *some* part of the world that is doing alright. I haven't heard much about Africa - they alright?
 
2009-02-10 05:32:15 PM  

DamnYankees: There has to be *some* part of the world that is doing alright. I haven't heard much about Africa - they alright?


hyperinflation in the south, aids in the north. doin' just fine.
 
2009-02-10 05:32:28 PM  
Hallelujah! We live in interesting times!!


DamnYankees

I haven't heard much about Africa - they alright?

They aren't any more depressed than usual, if that's what you mean.

Check BBC if you want to be reminded, from time to time, that Africa exists.
 
2009-02-10 05:33:17 PM  
On the plus side, popcorn sales are rising.
 
2009-02-10 05:34:46 PM  

thomps: hyperinflation in the south, aids in the north. doin' just fine.


Sounds normal.

oldebayer: They aren't any more depressed than usual, if that's what you mean.


That's basically what I mean. I took a course in development in sub-Saharan Africa in college. For them, a 1% growth in GDP is a pretty good year.
 
2009-02-10 05:36:27 PM  

DamnYankees: That's basically what I mean. I took a course in development in sub-Saharan Africa in college. For them, a 1% growth in GDP is a pretty good year.


i would be willing to bet that aid to the region will probably suffer for the next few years.
 
2009-02-10 05:39:49 PM  
In Andrew Sullivan said the sky was blue, I'd still check the window.
 
2009-02-10 05:52:21 PM  
We've had bank failures, housing prices crashing (granted, that's because they were valued WAY over equilibrium for a long time, so it was inevitable), stockmarkets losing 50% or more of their value, unemployment increasing by 0.5% per month, a financial system that won't make loans, and quite a few governments are looking periliously close to bankruptcy. And this is happening, to a greater or lesser extent, in almost every large economy in the world.

All I can say is, I'm keeping an eye on Germany. If this follows the script, right around 2020, they're going to be getting downright persnickety.
 
2009-02-10 06:05:38 PM  
SusanIvanova: All I can say is, I'm keeping an eye on Germany. If this follows the script, right around 2020, they're going to be getting downright persnickety.

Nah, 2011 at the latest, but watch out for the Chinese, Japanese, Russians, and the rest of the continent of Asia just for shiats and giggles too.

Lots of hungry mouths, lots of new weapons to play with.
 
2009-02-10 06:10:17 PM  
Brewery business is just fine, thank you.
 
2009-02-10 06:16:55 PM  
Part of the reason everyone else is so bad is the US consumer has no confidence. If confidence returns, which might happen if the news stopped playing up every little thing and reminding everyone of potential doom every day, then sales will begin to rise. The stimulus also has the ability to help turn people's thinking around and making them want to buy goods. However, since Bush decided to be Hoover for 5 months, I'm not sure the stimulus will get out in time. I do wonder if China has a revolution which way they swing: democracy or even stronger fascism?
 
2009-02-10 06:18:03 PM  

2wolves: Brewery business is just fine, thank you.


This will be the last thing to go when our civilization collapses... and the first thing we resurrect from the rubble.
 
2009-02-10 06:18:55 PM  

I_Love_Verdi: 2wolves: Brewery business is just fine, thank you.

This will be the last thing to go when our civilization collapses... and the first thing we resurrect from the rubble.


That's for sure. If you want a sure fire investment that will still be useful if everything else falls apart, buy whiskey.
 
2009-02-10 06:19:07 PM  
thomps: hyperinflation in the south, aids in the north. doin' just fine.

And an enormous desert thingy that's eating more arable land every day.

/It's great beachfront property, if you don't actually require an adjacent body of water
//Condo developments, anyone?
 
2009-02-10 06:19:22 PM  

GAT_00: Part of the reason everyone else is so bad is the US consumer has no confidence. If confidence returns, which might happen if the news stopped playing up every little thing and reminding everyone of potential doom every day, then sales will begin to rise.


The US isn't everything. The EU taken as a whole is a larger consumer base, and China has a ton of exports to Japan being a close neighbor.

GAT_00: I do wonder if China has a revolution which way they swing: democracy or even stronger fascism?


No idea. One of the bad things about a one-party state is that you have no idea who the other factions are, because they are squelched. You would have to imagine there would be a very large presence of the Guomindang, the party which founded and controls Taiwan. I'm not familiar with more hard-line parties in China.
 
2009-02-10 06:19:35 PM  
Every generation thinks they're going to be the last generation.

That's why the Baby Boomers keep spending all our money.
 
2009-02-10 06:21:04 PM  
Well, that's gonna be fun when they stop buying US bonds...
 
2009-02-10 06:24:42 PM  

make me some tea: Well, that's gonna be fun when they stop buying US bondsconsumer debt...

 
2009-02-10 06:26:24 PM  
Fortunately, I shall survive it all in my space station filled with beautiful women.
 
2009-02-10 06:31:09 PM  
DamnYankees: The US isn't everything. The EU taken as a whole is a larger consumer base, and China has a ton of exports to Japan being a close neighbor.

No, but we still are a fairly significant part. US consumers buying again would help things immensely. But why would you when you don't know if you'll have a job this time next year?

You would have to imagine there would be a very large presence of the Guomindang, the party which founded and controls Taiwan.

I don't know. I remember reading a TIME article a while back that asked a 20-something about what he thought about who runs the country, and his response was something like "I don't care, I'm sure who is in charge will do the best" and that was a typical response. Of course, being China, that could have all been people who didn't want to say what they thought, even when there was no picture and no name in the article. I don't think the people there would think much of Taiwan, because they've been told for 50 years that it is a renegade province.
 
2009-02-10 06:31:23 PM  

nekom: make me some tea: Well, that's gonna be fun when they stop buying US bondsconsumer debt...


... whatever you choose to call it.
 
2009-02-10 06:35:02 PM  

netweavr: Every generation thinks they're going to be the last generation.

That's why the Baby Boomers keep spending all our money.


Go ahead. Blame the Baby Boomers. I doubt only Baby Boomers were the only one voting for the same idiot as POTUS in 2000 and 2004.
 
2009-02-10 06:39:43 PM  

AirForceVet: Go ahead. Blame the Baby Boomers. I doubt only Baby Boomers were the only one voting for the same idiot as POTUS in 2000 and 2004.


Not that it matters but 60% of under 30s voted Kerry in 2004.
 
2009-02-10 06:48:49 PM  

GAT_00: I don't know. I remember reading a TIME article a while back that asked a 20-something about what he thought about who runs the country, and his response was something like "I don't care, I'm sure who is in charge will do the best" and that was a typical response. Of course, being China, that could have all been people who didn't want to say what they thought, even when there was no picture and no name in the article. I don't think the people there would think much of Taiwan, because they've been told for 50 years that it is a renegade province.


This I agree with - many Chinese are detached from their politics. But I don't what kind of impact that would have. All it means is that the pool of people involved is smaller. After all, decisions are made by those who show up.
 
2009-02-10 07:09:50 PM  

GAT_00: Part of the reason everyone else is so bad is the US consumer has no confidence. If confidence returns, which might happen if the news stopped playing up every little thing and reminding everyone of potential doom every day, then sales will begin to rise.

[snip]

Does the phrase "irrational exuberance" mean anything to you?
 
2009-02-10 07:27:26 PM  
Again, tell me that bed time story, please.
The one about how the world economy was destroyed because we sold a few houses to poor people.
It has such a warm, comforting moral.
And about as truthful as the one about the Easter Bunny.

nobody really interested in the story about Bernie's 1/2 Trillion$ and how it might affect the world..
or the one where Deutsche Bank reported a $200B "theft" last summer.
 
2009-02-10 07:42:44 PM  
DamnYankees: All it means is that the pool of people involved is smaller. After all, decisions are made by those who show up.

It would make for a very odd revolution. There usually aren't many people who just go "Meh" when the revolution comes.

ScubaDude1960: Does the phrase "irrational exuberance" mean anything to you?

I'd rather be irrationally exuberant than gloom and doom.
 
2009-02-10 07:43:45 PM  

GAT_00: It would make for a very odd revolution. There usually aren't many people who just go "Meh" when the revolution comes.


I actually think that's how most revolutions happen. Most people don't want any part of it and don't care all that much.
 
2009-02-10 07:47:53 PM  

snocone: The one about how the world economy was destroyed because we sold a few houses to poor people.


We actually sold a lot of houses to poor people. And we sold even more houses to people who weren't poor, but couldn't actually afford the price tag (if you're making $80,000/year, you're not poor, but you can't realisitcally afford a $750,000 house). And all of these houses were being sold for far more than their historical value, with minimal underwriting, and with exotic mortgages that would become more than 100% of income in three years, but that's ok, because by then the house will have appreciated by 50%, and you can just refi. Because housing prices will never, ever, ever come down again. I mean, look, they've been going up 20% a year for five years, that means that it's now become impossible for them to ever fall, or even flatten, ever again.

Almost everyone believed this. Poor people buying $200,000 houses believed it. Middle-class people buying million-dollar houses believed it. Rich people buying 20 million-dollar houses believed it. The banks that wrote the loans believed it. The people who bought the securitized mortgages believed it. Fannie and Freddie believed it. The regulators believed it, the government believed it.

It was a delusion shared by an overwhelming majority of the population. And now everyone's paying the price for it.
 
2009-02-10 08:00:06 PM  
I'm resting all my hopes on the Large Hadron Collider coming on-line in September.
 
2009-02-10 08:01:17 PM  
I'm so desperate right now, I'm considering joining the military.....
 
2009-02-10 08:02:31 PM  

DamnYankees: There has to be *some* part of the world that is doing alright. I haven't heard much about Africa - they alright?


I don't know about Africa, but people, some right here on FarkTM, tell me Iraq is just peachie-keen jelly bean.
 
2009-02-10 08:02:41 PM  
netweavr: Not that it matters but 60% of under 30s voted Kerry in 2004.

I can't share the blame with the 40% who didn't either.

Looks like we are all in for a bumpy ride though.
 
2009-02-10 08:05:20 PM  
B.. b... but Fark told me that only the US was in trouble solely because executives make a lot of money!
 
2009-02-10 08:05:21 PM  
More proof of the failure of unbridled capitalism. Mixed economies are the only functional economies in the entire history of economics.
 
2009-02-10 08:05:24 PM  
Welcome to Farklantic.
 
2009-02-10 08:05:39 PM  

SusanIvanova: snocone: The one about how the world economy was destroyed because we sold a few houses to poor people.

We actually sold a lot of houses to poor people. And we sold even more houses to people who weren't poor, but couldn't actually afford the price tag (if you're making $80,000/year, you're not poor, but you can't realisitcally afford a $750,000 house). And all of these houses were being sold for far more than their historical value, with minimal underwriting, and with exotic mortgages that would become more than 100% of income in three years, but that's ok, because by then the house will have appreciated by 50%, and you can just refi. Because housing prices will never, ever, ever come down again. I mean, look, they've been going up 20% a year for five years, that means that it's now become impossible for them to ever fall, or even flatten, ever again.

Almost everyone believed this. Poor people buying $200,000 houses believed it. Middle-class people buying million-dollar houses believed it. Rich people buying 20 million-dollar houses believed it. The banks that wrote the loans believed it. The people who bought the securitized mortgages believed it. Fannie and Freddie believed it. The regulators believed it, the government believed it.

It was a delusion shared by an overwhelming majority of the population. And now everyone's paying the price for it.



I take it you didn't finish reading his post.
 
2009-02-10 08:05:47 PM  

SusanIvanova: snocone: The one about how the world economy was destroyed because we sold a few houses to poor people.

We actually sold a lot of houses to poor people. And we sold even more houses to people who weren't poor, but couldn't actually afford the price tag (if you're making $80,000/year, you're not poor, but you can't realisitcally afford a $750,000 house). And all of these houses were being sold for far more than their historical value, with minimal underwriting, and with exotic mortgages that would become more than 100% of income in three years, but that's ok, because by then the house will have appreciated by 50%, and you can just refi. Because housing prices will never, ever, ever come down again. I mean, look, they've been going up 20% a year for five years, that means that it's now become impossible for them to ever fall, or even flatten, ever again.

Almost everyone believed this. Poor people buying $200,000 houses believed it. Middle-class people buying million-dollar houses believed it. Rich people buying 20 million-dollar houses believed it. The banks that wrote the loans believed it. The people who bought the securitized mortgages believed it. Fannie and Freddie believed it. The regulators believed it, the government believed it.

It was a delusion shared by an overwhelming majority of the population. And now everyone's paying the price for it.


Want to go dutch on a tulip investment?
 
2009-02-10 08:05:56 PM  
All you people laughed and called John Titor a hoax.

Who's laughing now?
 
2009-02-10 08:06:55 PM  

playblu: In Andrew Sullivan said the sky was blue, I'd still check the window.


So this. But if you wait a few weeks - he will change his mind, says its red and will spend a few paragraphs rationalizing it.

/i stopped reading his stuff over a year ago so he might of changed
//doubtful
 
2009-02-10 08:07:04 PM  

robbiedo: Want to go dutch on a tulip investment?


That's what I call it when you're broke and have to share a hooker with a friend.
 
2009-02-10 08:07:31 PM  

SusanIvanova: We've had bank failures, housing prices crashing (granted, that's because they were valued WAY over equilibrium for a long time, so it was inevitable), stockmarkets losing 50% or more of their value, unemployment increasing by 0.5% per month, a financial system that won't make loans, and quite a few governments are looking periliously close to bankruptcy. And this is happening, to a greater or lesser extent, in almost every large economy in the world.

All I can say is, I'm keeping an eye on Germany. If this follows the script, right around 2020, they're going to be getting downright persnickety.


You owe me a keyboard.

I owe you an internet.
 
2009-02-10 08:07:47 PM  
It's not just the baby boomers spending our money. The 'greatest generation' is still riding their Buicks (slowly) and lark scooters to the voting booth too.
 
2009-02-10 08:08:26 PM  
And at the end of it all we probably have a groovy world war to look forward to.

www.crestock.com

/where do I sign up!
//Oh, at the enlistment office
 
2009-02-10 08:09:32 PM  

Vanetia: On the plus side, popcorn sales are rising.


As a struggling student that's back to surviving on popcorn and Mt. Dew...DUH! And, give credit, caus' I, & my friends, predicted this mess 12 yrs. ago (when we lost our "good paying, w/benefits, w/healthcare manufacturing jobs" & could not find another with comparable benefits/pay). Hence---back to college, again! Nobody listens to the low woman on the totem pole until it's happening to them.......... P.S. Sorry to see y'all down here.
 
2009-02-10 08:09:37 PM  
img4.imageshack.us

I am beginning to think we're going to be the next chapter in Mr. Diamond's book.
 
2009-02-10 08:10:33 PM  

Hagbardr: All you people laughed and called John Titor a hoax.

Who's laughing now?


i100.photobucket.com

ME!
 
2009-02-10 08:11:28 PM  

Hagbardr: All you people laughed and called John Titor a hoax.

Who's laughing now?


farm3.static.flickr.com

She RORed.
 
2009-02-10 08:11:29 PM  

lexslamman: More proof of the failure of unbridled capitalism. Mixed economies are the only functional economies in the entire history of economics.


No place on earth has anything remotely like "unbridled" capitalism.
 
2009-02-10 08:12:56 PM  

GAT_00: ScubaDude1960: Does the phrase "irrational exuberance" mean anything to you?

I'd rather be irrationally exuberant than gloom and doom.


Not me, since, in the end, the latter are going to be making Soylent Green out of the former.
 
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